Damn Trump Economy!! LPR Up! Jobs Up! Income Up!

[Spare_change]

Despite the half-truths, false propaganda, and downright lies fomented by our esteemed leftist moan machine at Economy loses 33,000 jobs in September biggest drop in seven years

The truth is published, in its entirety, to allow YOU to judge.

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are long gone, and despite dire predictions, they did not dampen the September jobs report in most key areas.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday said the labor force participation rate of 63.1 percent reached a high for the year in September, up two-tenths of a point from August.

The number of employed Americans reached 154,345,000 in September, setting a sixth record since January. As the number of employed Americans reached an all-time high, the number of unemployed Americans in September -- 6,801,000 -- hasn't been this low since May 2007.

The already low unemployment rate dropped another two-tenths of a point to 4.2 percent last month. That is the lowest since early 2001.

BLS noted that the recent hurricanes had "no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate."

The number of Americans not in the labor force declined a bit in September to 94,417,000. The record, set in the final full month of the Obama presidency, stands at 95,102,000 Americans not in the labor force.

On the negative side, BLS said no new jobs were added in September: In fact, BLS counts a job loss of 33,000, and it blamed the net effect of the two hurricanes for the negative jobs-added number.

BLS noted that a “steep” employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey. Employment rose in health care and in transportation and warehousing.

BLS said job gains have averaged 91,000 over the past three months.

And wages are going up: In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 12 cents to $26.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 74 cents, or 2.9 percent,, BLS said.

 

[edthecynic]

On the negative side, BLS said no new jobs were added in September: In fact, BLS counts a job loss of 33,000, and it blamed the net effect of the two hurricanes for the negative jobs-added number.

Actually the job loss was 71,000 after the net loss of 38,000 jobs after the correction of the last 2 months job reports.

From the BLS report:
Employment gains in July and August combined were 38,000 less than previously reported. After revisions, job gains have averaged 91,000 over the past 3 months.

 

[Crackerjack]

BLM's unemployment count has been bullshit for years now. I doubt their employment numbers are much better.

And before you say it, yes I said the same thing when Obama was president.

 

[pinqy]

BLM's unemployment count has been bullshit for years now. I doubt their employment numbers are much better.

And before you say it, yes I said the same thing when Obama was president.

Hmmm, while there certainly are legitimate criticisms and issues with the unemployment numbers, there are two kinds of people I've encountered who say it is all BS: those who don't actually understand the concepts or methodology, and those who lie about it for profit. What exactly are your objections?

 

[Crackerjack]

BLM's unemployment count has been bullshit for years now. I doubt their employment numbers are much better.

And before you say it, yes I said the same thing when Obama was president.

Hmmm, while there certainly are legitimate criticisms and issues with the unemployment numbers, there are two kinds of people I've encountered who say it is all BS: those who don't actually understand the concepts or methodology, and those who lie about it for profit. What exactly are your objections?

I don't have it in front of me at the moment, but from what I understand of the unemployment count, a person who is unemployed beyond a certain time is no longer considered unemployed and deemed "out of the workforce." I also understand that they don't factor in underemployed people, which is also an important classification to my way of thinking.

 

[pinqy]

BLM's unemployment count has been bullshit for years now. I doubt their employment numbers are much better.

And before you say it, yes I said the same thing when Obama was president.

Hmmm, while there certainly are legitimate criticisms and issues with the unemployment numbers, there are two kinds of people I've encountered who say it is all BS: those who don't actually understand the concepts or methodology, and those who lie about it for profit. What exactly are your objections?

I don't have it in front of me at the moment, but from what I understand of the unemployment count, a person who is unemployed beyond a certain time is no longer considered unemployed and deemed "out of the workforce."

Ok, that's not true. When the census worker visits or calls a household, if the person doesn't own a business and did not work the previous week (besides temporary absence from a job) s/he is asked what they did to find a job in the last 4 weeks. If they did anything at all to get a job, they are classified as unemployed for that month. If the answer is "nothing" or just read job ads or picked up an application, then the person is "Not in the labor force" for that month. There's no time limit...if you've been out of work 6 years and are looking, you're still unemployed.

I also understand that they don't factor in underemployed people, which is also an important classification to my way of thinking.

Well, underemployed are still, by definition, employed. While those who want and can work full time, but only work part time because they can't find full time, or had their hours cut, or it's the off-season etc are tracked, it wouldn't make sense to classify them as unemployed.

 

[longknife]

63.1%: Participation Rate Reaches Trump-Era High; Record Number of Employed



In spite of hurricanes, the economy continues to grow. Full story @ 63.1%: Participation Rate Reaches Trump-Era High; Record Number of Employed

Followed by this:

Federal Government Jobs Down 13,000 Under Trump

I actually believe the number is higher. And there are lots of positions unfilled because the administration is not naming people to fill them. More @ Federal Government Jobs Down 13,000 Under Trump

 

[Econ4Every1]

Can anyone touting Trump's jobs numbers and his performance show me 3 significant statistics where there is a reversal in some trend from Obama to Trump?

Then tell me which of trumps policies are responsible for the turn-around/s.

 

[Spare_change]

Can anyone touting Trump's jobs numbers and his performance show me 3 significant statistics where there is a reversal in some trend from Obama to Trump?

Then tell me which of trumps policies are responsible for the turn-around/s.

LOL --- that rite thar is sum funnie shit.

Liars figure, but figures don't lie. We watched the stock market climb out of the doldrums under Obama, right up until the day after the election. It exploded!!! And has continued to explode!

And, you want us to give Obama credit for that???

Keep figuring ....

 

[Econ4Every1]

Can anyone touting Trump's jobs numbers and his performance show me 3 significant statistics where there is a reversal in some trend from Obama to Trump?

Then tell me which of trumps policies are responsible for the turn-around/s.

LOL --- that rite thar is sum funnie shit.

Liars figure, but figures don't lie. We watched the stock market climb out of the doldrums under Obama, right up until the day after the election. It exploded!!! And has continued to explode!

And, you want us to give Obama credit for that???

Keep figuring ....

Ok, but Trump obviously didn't do anything in terms of policy to affect the stock market except make a lot of promises.

Besides, the stock market isn't a very good indicator of how well the economy is doing for most people.

If we look at the turn around with respect to income growth, when adjusted for inflation, it had fallen from 1998-2000.

That turned around 2013, though the bottom 2 quintiles are still struggling to get back to the level of income growth they saw in 2000

While the stock market is doing well, key indicators in the economy are beginning to slump. My prediction is that the Christmas season will stave off a recession until first or second quarter next year unless Congress approves a significant infrastructure bill.

Just a few charts that show the economy isn't doing as well as most people think....

I won't post them all, but loans by banks, consumers and in real estate all follow similar trends....

All ost all of these began to slump after Trump took office.

 

[Spare_change]

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Surely, you don't question that the spike in the stock market is directly attributable to regime change in Washington, do you?

 

[Econ4Every1]

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Surely, you don't question that the spike in the stock market is directly attributable to regime change in Washington, do you?

No, not at all, but surely you don't think that the markets are going to keep rising based on hope do you?

As long as we agree that Trump's administration or the Republican Congress via any significant policy change haven't affected the economy since Trump took office, at least anything that was a significant change over what was already in place under Obama.

If you claim that his EO's loosening regs have made a difference, I hope you, or any other readers would quantify those claims.

If anything, the most of the figures I posted show the opposite. Key indices are declining.

 

[Spare_change]

Figures don't lie, but liars figure.

Surely, you don't question that the spike in the stock market is directly attributable to regime change in Washington, do you?

No, not at all, but surely you don't think that the markets are going to keep rising based on hope do you?

As long as we agree that Trump's administration or the Republican Congress via any significant policy change haven't affected the economy since Trump took office, at least anything that was a significant change over what was already in place under Obama.

If you claim that his EO's loosening regs have made a difference, I hope you, or any other readers would quantify those claims.

If anything, the most of the figures I posted show the opposite. Key indices are declining.

No ---- they will keep rising, based on implementation of the Trump economic agenda. The economy withstood the Democrat block of the repeal of Obamacare, but if the tax reform isn't passed, you will see the economy go back in the tank.

If you're asking about EOs loosening regs making a difference, i suggest the quickest way to see it is to look at two energy areas - coal and natural gas exploration. In addition, the price of oil is being held down by the threat of fracking and continued exploration, the cost of which has gone down as a direct result of EOs. OPEC recognizes that they need to hold the cost down to the point that it is not economically feasible to exploit our own oil - thus, despite the hurricanes, you've seen relatively little movement in gas and oil prices.

That's three quick examples ----- want more? Happy to oblige.

 

[Econ4Every1]

No ---- they will keep rising, based on implementation of the Trump economic agenda.

In that sentence "they" is the Stock Market? All the other indicators can't "keep" rising as they are all declining.

One of the things that makes assessing the economy so difficult is that there are buffers in the economy. Things like excess capital, private savings and invetories are all examples of things that help the economy last when things start turning down. This is why it can take as much as 6 months before we even know a recession has begun and why so many people find it hard to place blame in the right place.

Take the surplus under Clinton. That ravaged the economy, but few people really understand the effects of a surplus, most think it's good for the economy when in fact every sustained (3+ years) surplus (but one) in US history was followed by a depression. Some of the best years have come after large deficits. Recent large deficits prevented depression after the last surplus.

The economy withstood the Democrat block of the repeal of Obamacare, but if the tax reform isn't passed, you will see the economy go back in the tank.

Unless deficit spending hits at least $500-600billion in FY18, the economy is going in the tank anyway. Even a large deficit my not save it.

Tax cuts are generally good, but they need to be centered around those that make less than $400k

If you're asking about EOs loosening regs making a difference, i suggest the quickest way to see it is to look at two energy areas - coal and natural gas exploration. In addition, the price of oil is being held down by the threat of fracking and continued exploration, the cost of which has gone down as a direct result of EOs. OPEC recognizes that they need to hold the cost down to the point that it is not economically feasible to exploit our own oil - thus, despite the hurricanes, you've seen relatively little movement in gas and oil prices.

That's three quick examples ----- want more? Happy to oblige.

All of that was true before Trump signed a single EO.