Martin Eden Mercury

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Nov 2, 2015
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Let me begin by apologizing to Governor Kasich for leaving him out. Dear Governor, I don't see you making any headway at the convention. You're not the Jess Jackson of the GOP in 2016. In 1984, Jesse Jackson and the Rainbow Coalition, brought forth a call to conscience, redemption, expansion, healing, with an appeal for party unity to the Democratic National Convention in San Francisco, California. I seriously doubt you'll be asked to bring your message of compassion and civility to the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio this year. No one is listening. You have a coalition made up of yourself, and the sit-this-is-one-out faction of the GOP. Not exactly a winning combination. Let us be honest. Whether you want to believe it or not, most people now view your campaign as more about helping to stop Trump, than you actually winning the nomination.

The Real Reagan Republican in 2016


In 2016, Senator Ted Cruz is being attacked as being unfair for chasing after delegates in much the same way as Ronald Reagan did in 1976, and General Eisenhower did in 1952. But what makes Senator Cruz more of The Real Reagan Republican in 2016 than Trump? It is the fact that in 1976, Ronald Reagan announced his VP pick before the Convention. Reagan and his campaign demanded that President Ford (yes, Reagan ran against a sitting President of his own party) name his VP pick, because of some made up 'right to know' principle.

The Reagan campaign was looking to balance the ticket with a liberal Republican and to woo the Pennsylvania delegation away from Ford. Neither President Ford, nor ex Governor Reagan had the requisite number of delegates to clinch the nomination going into the convention. The Reagan gambit eventually lost, and the result was a clear indication that state leaders in the Ford campaign remained in control of the Pennsylvania delegation, despite Reagan's pick of Pennsylvania's US Senator, Richard S. Schweiker as VP on a potential Reagan ticket. Reagan lost the nomination, but Ford went on to lose the general election to a Christian Evangelical, peanut farmer and Georgia Governor, James Earl Jimmy Who Carter. But the facts are Reagan, like Cruz was asking state delegates to back him against the preference of many GOP primary/caucus voters. Reagan's team was called "Reagan's Raiders." Reagan attempting to win by stealing delegates? How 'unfair!'

Like Ike

Dwight David Eisenhower went into the 1952 RNC convention with the argument of 'elect-ability' versus preferences. Going into the convention, Ike got less of the popular vote than did 'Mr. Republican' himself, US Senator Robert A.Taft. Yet it was Ike's people who were charging Taft's people with 'stealing' delegates. Eisenhower eventually won the nomination convincing delegates that his elect-ability was more valuable than Taft's rock solid, conservative, Republicanism. America was not ready for Taft. The RNC convention went with the candidate who had the lesser of the popular vote, but who was viewed as the more electable.

Negatives and Electability

Cruz's strongest argument going into the convention will be that Donald Trump is unelectable, and the GOP will stand a much better chance with Senator Ted Cruz, than with self-professed Whiner, Donald J. Trump. Republicans running for office this year are running away from being tied to Trump's wagon. The down ticket races are in deep trouble if Trump is the eventual nominee. We believe this, because we assume the politicians up for reelection have done their own polling. If Trump were even close to having coattails, they'd all be begging to be dragged along into victory clinging to Trump's rump. The reality on the ground is that Trump looks like he's driving the wagon used to scoop up horse and cow manure: his own. The mechanics of political campaigns is like sausage making: not a pretty sight.
 
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There will be a meltdown alright, but it won't be Trump. He is relentless, powerful and he plays the media like a stump fiddle. I just hope Hillary doesn't collapse on stage, that would be sad and may garner a few thousand sympathy votes.
 

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