Could you please provide a link to this thread please? (where you got your chart) tha

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Jan 6, 2010.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Sure. I have compiled the data from the Department of Labor many times before. To get the data, don't read the weekly news releases as they are all lies.

    You have got to go to the Department of Labor site and read the data in the weekly report. There they list the ACTUAL numbers as they come in from the states. They then adjust the data any damn way they please and use it for political purposes to please the administration that is in power. Obama thinks that the way to an economic recovery is to rally the stock market. Naive, but that is what he is trying to do even though that does not create jobs. To make people think that everything is rosy, he has the DOL claiming in most of the weekly reports that Unemployment Insurance Claims are going down and down and down and down. Meanwhile, they have been going up and up and up and up. This level of total dishonesty has never before been seen in the US. Obama thinks that almost all Americans are really stupid and will believe anything that comes out of Washington. Well, I don't believe it, because I can see if with my own eyes. My home made chart, by the way is being spread all over the internet. That is good.


    U.S. Department of Labor: Employment & Training Administration (ETA) News Releases

    INITIAL CLAIMS These are the actual numbers as reported by the states.
    Soaring in the past three months.
    557,155 in the week ending Dec. 26
    561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19
    555,344 in the week ending Dec. 12
    664,865 in the week ending Dec. 5
    460,989 in the week ending Nov. 28
    543,926 in the week ending Nov. 21
    479,295 in the week ending Nov. 14
    529,446 in the week ending Nov. 7
    480,178 in the week ending Oct. 31
    492,456 in the week ending Oct. 24
    460,449 in the week ending Oct. 17
    503,973 in the week ending Oct. 10
    449,375 in the week ending Oct. 3
    443,694 in the week ending Sept. 26
    434,358 in the week ending Sept. 19
    407,869 in the week ending Sept. 12


    U.S. Department of Labor: Employment & Training Administration (ETA) News Releases

    Unemployment Rate -- More political propaganda. You can double it for accuracy.

    November 2009 10%
    October 2009 10.3%
    August 2009 9.7%
    July 2009 9.4%
    June 2009 9.5%
    May 2009 9.4%

    February 2008 4.8%


    U.S. Department of Labor: Employment & Training Administration (ETA) News Releases
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  2. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    First my prediction...I'll ask questions, and in response Neubarth will not make actual arguments with evidence, but instead just accuse me of lying and then make more assertions without actually trying to prove his point.
    And what is your evidence that this is true? What is your evidence that they don't actually use Seasonal Adjustment?

    Untrue. If you actually look at the data, in the last year (52 weeks) the not seasonally adjusted number went UP 24 weeks and DOWN 28. Seasonally adjusted, it went UP 23, DOWN 28 and stayed the same one. Source: ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (and click "UI Claims Series 1967 to current" at the bottom). Now, while technically true that 54% going down is "most of the reports," the unadjusted numbers went down the same number of weeks.

    Furthermore, if you average the changes, the average change per week for the last 52 weeks was:
    Not seasonally adjusted: -3,074
    Seasonally adjusted: -1,462
    So Not seasonally adjusted on average went down more than adjusted.

    Oh, and on average, the seasonally adjusted number was HIGHER by 9,282 people. A bit odd if the administration was trying to show things as better than they really are for the adjusted numbers to show on average more people making claims.

    These are facts, but Neubarth won't try to dispute my math, he'll just call me a liar without saying what exactly is a lie. My math is correct.


    Odd, since you don't trust seasonal adjustment you don't show the not seasonally adjusted numbers: http://data.bls.gov:8080/PDQ/outside.jsp?survey=ln
     
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2010
  3. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    To make things easier, here are the numbers straight from DOL (nsa=not seasonally adjusted, sa= seasonally adjusted), though the formatting isn't the greatest

    date ___ initial nsa ___ change ___ initial sa ___ change
    12/27/08 ___ 717,000 ___ NA ___ 508,000 ___ NA
    01/03/09 ___ 731,958 ___ 14,958 ___ 488,000 ___ -20,000
    01/10/09 ___ 956,791 ___ 224,833 ___ 535,000 ___ 47,000
    01/17/09 ___ 763,987 ___ -192,804 ___ 575,000 ___ 40,000
    01/24/09 ___ 620,143 ___ -143,844 ___ 590,000 ___ 15,000
    01/31/09 ___ 682,176 ___ 62,033 ___ 624,000 ___ 34,000
    02/07/09 ___ 710,152 ___ 27,976 ___ 617,000 ___ -7,000
    02/14/09 ___ 619,951 ___ -90,201 ___ 631,000 ___ 14,000
    02/21/09 ___ 605,668 ___ -14,283 ___ 656,000 ___ 25,000
    02/28/09 ___ 645,827 ___ 40,159 ___ 643,000 ___ -13,000
    03/07/09 ___ 652,636 ___ 6,809 ___ 657,000 ___ 14,000
    03/14/09 ___ 601,193 ___ -51,443 ___ 644,000 ___ -13,000
    03/21/09 ___ 590,067 ___ -11,126 ___ 657,000 ___ 13,000
    03/28/09 ___ 599,299 ___ 9,232 ___ 674,000 ___ 17,000
    04/04/09 ___ 623,630 ___ 24,331 ___ 660,000 ___ -14,000
    04/11/09 ___ 610,522 ___ -13,108 ___ 613,000 ___ -47,000
    04/18/09 ___ 596,564 ___ -13,958 ___ 645,000 ___ 32,000
    04/25/09 ___ 580,377 ___ -16,187 ___ 635,000 ___ -10,000
    05/02/09 ___ 537,539 ___ -42,838 ___ 605,000 ___ -30,000
    05/09/09 ___ 570,412 ___ 32,873 ___ 643,000 ___ 38,000
    05/16/09 ___ 540,925 ___ -29,487 ___ 636,000 ___ -7,000
    05/23/09 ___ 538,268 ___ -2,657 ___ 625,000 ___ -11,000
    05/30/09 ___ 500,383 ___ -37,885 ___ 625,000 ___ 0
    06/06/09 ___ 581,080 ___ 80,697 ___ 605,000 ___ -20,000
    06/13/09 ___ 558,407 ___ -22,673 ___ 612,000 ___ 7,000
    06/20/09 ___ 568,552 ___ 10,145 ___ 630,000 ___ 18,000
    06/27/09 ___ 559,857 ___ -8,695 ___ 617,000 ___ -13,000
    07/04/09 ___ 581,145 ___ 21,288 ___ 569,000 ___ -48,000
    07/11/09 ___ 671,242 ___ 90,097 ___ 524,000 ___ -45,000
    07/18/09 ___ 585,575 ___ -85,667 ___ 559,000 ___ 35,000
    07/25/09 ___ 511,628 ___ -73,947 ___ 589,000 ___ 30,000
    08/01/09 ___ 466,695 ___ -44,933 ___ 554,000 ___ -35,000
    08/08/09 ___ 482,590 ___ 15,895 ___ 561,000 ___ 7,000
    08/15/09 ___ 457,985 ___ -24,605 ___ 580,000 ___ 19,000
    08/22/09 ___ 457,269 ___ -716 ___ 574,000 ___ -6,000
    08/29/09 ___ 456,682 ___ -587 ___ 576,000 ___ 2,000
    09/05/09 ___ 466,277 ___ 9,595 ___ 557,000 ___ -19,000
    09/12/09 ___ 411,126 ___ -55,151 ___ 550,000 ___ -7,000
    09/19/09 ___ 437,543 ___ 26,417 ___ 534,000 ___ -16,000
    09/26/09 ___ 445,618 ___ 8,075 ___ 554,000 ___ 20,000
    10/03/09 ___ 451,883 ___ 6,265 ___ 524,000 ___ -30,000
    10/10/09 ___ 509,730 ___ 57,847 ___ 520,000 ___ -4,000
    10/17/09 ___ 460,430 ___ -49,300 ___ 531,000 ___ 11,000
    10/24/09 ___ 494,394 ___ 33,964 ___ 532,000 ___ 1,000
    10/31/09 ___ 482,419 ___ -11,975 ___ 514,000 ___ -18,000
    11/07/09 ___ 531,743 ___ 49,324 ___ 505,000 ___ -9,000
    11/14/09 ___ 475,700 ___ -56,043 ___ 501,000 ___ -4,000
    11/21/09 ___ 540,104 ___ 64,404 ___ 463,000 ___ -38,000
    11/28/09 ___ 457,707 ___ -82,397 ___ 454,000 ___ -9,000
    12/05/09 ___ 665,682 ___ 207,975 ___ 475,000 ___ 21,000
    12/12/09 ___ 555,383 ___ -110,299 ___ 480,000 ___ 5,000
    12/19/09 ___ 565,243 ___ 9,860 ___ 454,000 ___ -26,000
    12/26/09 ___ 557,155 ___ -8,088 ___ 432,000 ___ -22,000
    Average ___ 577,737 ___ -3,074 ___ 583,000 ___ -1,462
     
  4. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Listen you stupid crazy piece of shit, all you ever do is post all of those insane lies. The fact remains that none of the crazy Federal Numbers have any validity. You can make up fake numbers all you want. So did Hitler. They still have no validity no matter what clown makes them up.

    You paid shills who come one here trying to delude the people into believing that crazy shit need to be silenced.

    There is not one damned reason for adjusting the numbers. People who have lost their jobs in this horrible Greatest Depression have lost their jobs, pure and simple. That is a fact. Government lies and crazy paid shills like you do not take away from that. All you can do is come on here and post your outrageous and insane lies, but few will believe you because of your silly stupid arguments that minor fluctuations prove that all of those millions that Obama said did not lose their jobs really do not exist. They must be fabrications of the various state governments like California where fifty percent of the people in the Central Valley farming communities have lost their jobs.

    Might as well post that all of the people who died in drunken driving accidents last month did not die because they exceeded the allotted number for the month of December. That would make about as much sense.

    This totally insane lie of the Obama administration in decreasing the number of UI calims by Millions and Millions and Millions more then claiming that UI claims are rapidly going down is so damn stupid as to be laughable and impeachable. You, in turn, come out as the world's greatest crazy clown because you pretend that the elimination of Millions of people is perfectly normal. What a total piece of useless shit you are. You are just a damned pathological liar and that is all there is to it. I call a spade a spade and you a piece of shit. Pure and simple. Easy to understand.
     
  5. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Like I said: "in response Neubarth will not make actual arguments with evidence, but instead just accuse me of lying and then make more assertions without actually trying to prove his point"

    Here, try arguing FACTS, not your usual rants. Address specifically each claim: In the last year (52 weeks) the not seasonally adjusted number went UP 24 weeks and DOWN 28.
    Seasonally adjusted, it went UP 23, DOWN 28 and stayed the same one.
    Is that true, or is it a lie? And how does that fit with your claims about the adjusted numbers being lies when the adjusted numbers didn't go down any more often than the unadjusted numbers?

    If you average the changes, the average change per week for the last 52 weeks was:
    Not seasonally adjusted: -3,074
    Seasonally adjusted: -1,462
    So Not seasonally adjusted on average went down more than adjusted.

    If the government is lying to make things seem better, then why do these "lies" show things as worse? (unless you think an average change of -1,462 is somehow better than one of -3,074)

    On average, the seasonally adjusted number was HIGHER by 9,282 people.
    Is this true, or a lie? And how does this fit your claim that the government is lying to make things look better when the adjusted numbers are on average a lot higher?
     
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    Last edited: Jan 7, 2010
  6. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Commie Pinko, you are just another lying piece of shit with numbers.


    Fact remains that the Damned Obama administration is claiming that UI claims are plummeting while the actual numbers are skyrocketing. Millions are losing their jobs every month and Obama wants people to believe that that massive wave of unemployment is not happening. You, of course being a damned liar from hell spout the Obama line that it is just "minor" adjustments . Obviously according to you those millions of people without jobs are all crazy and they never lost their jobs.

    Puck you. I hope you die a painful death, you disgusting weasel.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2010
  7. antagon
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    antagon The Man

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    neubarth: full of shit.
     
  8. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Then point out my specific lies and then what the truth is. Why can't you do that?

    In the past few weeks, there has been a divergence yes...I've never denied that. But over the last year, the adjusted numbers average out as WORSE than the unadjusted numbers. Do you deny that?

    Give the post where I said that, or admit you're a liar.

    And you accuse ME of misrepresenting YOUR position? I've never said anything remotely related to that. I've certainly never said the seasonally adjusted numbers represent the actual physical number of people, they don't...they filter out the distortion to show the trend. Show me one person ever who has said that the seasonally adjusted numbers are anything but that or who has said that anyone who says they've lost their job never lost their job.

    How Christian of you.
     

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