Could Iran "Win" in the Straight of Hormuz?

[westwall]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

Hell, they don't even need the Air Force. They can wipe out most of the Iranian CCC capability with Tomahawks. Then go in with FA-18's supported by the new F-18Gs and they could overfly at will. Knocking out whatever they wanted to.

 

[Old Rocks]

Peleliu. The prediction for the invasion and subjugation of that island was four days. After 72 days of bitter fighing, we finally declared the island won.

Lesson. Never, never underestimate the enemy. The cost is far too high in men and material.

 

[NLT]

Peleliu. The prediction for the invasion and subjugation of that island was four days. After 72 days of bitter fighing, we finally declared the island won.

Lesson. Never, never underestimate the enemy. The cost is far too high in men and material.

No body is invading an island. And its not 1944 anymore

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Are you a speed-reader?

"Mahdi Darius Nazemroaya is a Sociologist and award-winning author. He is a Research Associate at the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), Montreal. He specializes on the Middle East and Central Asia. He has been a contributor and guest discussing the broader Middle East on numerous programs and international networks such as Al Jazeera, Press TV and Russia Today. Nazemroaya was also a witness to the "Arab Spring" in action in North Africa. While on the ground in Libya during the NATO bombing campaign, he reported out of Tripoli for several media outlets. He sent key field dispatches from Libya for Global Research and was Special Correspondent for Pacifica's syndicated investigative program Flashpoints, broadcast out of Berkeley, California. His writings have been published in more than ten languages. He also writes for the Strategic Culture Foundation (SCF) in Moscow, Russia.

The Geo-Politics of the Strait of Hormuz: Could the U.S. Navy be defeated by Iran in the Persian Gulf?

I was at another very active forum when the Millennium Challenge 2002 report came out, we discussed it there.


again, no, if you want specifics, I am not going to engage in a what I am sure will turn into a circular argument, the take away is the Iranian armed forces that could interdict the straits would have a very active but bottom of the funnel life for oh, a week, maybe if they are lucky and we are incredibly stupid, 10 days. there after some sporadic efforts may yield some trouble but, every platform, sea air land that reveals itself would be pummeled in short order.

thats my take and thats why its a hollow threat; they know it , we know it, whats more; they know we know they know it.

If the Iranians sink a US aircraft carrier during that week to ten days of active interdiction their threat becomes significantly less hollow. The US normally instigates shock and awe at a time of its own choosing. Do we know what happens if Iran shocks first?

Carriers never go anywhere alone. A carrier battle group is designed to do one thing, protect the carrier, and it consists of various surface vessels that are tasked to stand off surface, and subsurface, threats. In order to sink a carrier the Iranian Navy would have to penetrate a battle group that was designed to keep Soviet submarines at bay using Cold War era surplus Kilo class submarines and diesel boats.

 

[westwall]

Peleliu. The prediction for the invasion and subjugation of that island was four days. After 72 days of bitter fighing, we finally declared the island won.

Lesson. Never, never underestimate the enemy. The cost is far too high in men and material.

Yes, and then after that look at Fort Drum. This is what would happen to the Iranian Navy.

There's a huge difference between blowing the crap out of somebody and leaving and taking something away from them. A huge difference.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Drum_(El_Fraile_Island)

 

[Mr. H.]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

Hell, they don't even need the Air Force. They can wipe out most of the Iranian CCC capability with Tomahawks. Then go in with FA-18's supported by the new F-18Gs and they could overfly at will. Knocking out whatever they wanted to.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have all of Iran's critical assets already targeted.
It would just be a matter of pressing buttons.

 

[Uncensored2008]

They established Israel peacefully. They asked all the Arabs in the borders of the new State to stay and be citizens. 5 Arab Countries ATTACKED them and frightened off most of the Arabs. Further the Arabs had the same right to form their own Government but the 5 Arab Countries ordered them not to.

Don't confuse little Marxist George with facts...

 

[georgephillip]

They established Israel peacefully. They asked all the Arabs in the borders of the new State to stay and be citizens. 5 Arab Countries ATTACKED them and frightened off most of the Arabs. Further the Arabs had the same right to form their own Government but the 5 Arab Countries ordered them not to.

Don't confuse little Marxist George with facts...

Fact:

In 1948 one-third of the citizens of Mandate Palestine imposed a Jewish state by force of arms on the majority of Palestinians.

 

[Katzndogz]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

You are missing part of what's necessary. First there would have to be the Will to issue to the Order to act. That's what's missing. obama would rather the entire task force was at the bottom of the sea.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Fact:

In 1948 one-third of the citizens of Mandate Palestine imposed a Jewish state by force of arms on the majority of Palestinians.

That's not a "fact,' that's a lie.

The fact is that the Arabs opted out and left - based on the promise of Egypt, Jordan and Syria that they would invade and complete a genocide of the Jews.

You're just butthurt that they failed, and you didn't get your genocide.

 

[westwall]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

You are missing part of what's necessary. First there would have to be the Will to issue to the Order to act. That's what's missing. obama would rather the entire task force was at the bottom of the sea.

I hate to point out the obvious but the sailors involved don't give a rats ass what Obama wants. They have a desire to live so they will. Any hostile action against them will be met by overwhelming firepower. This is the real world, people like their lives so will act accordingly.

 

[georgephillip]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

You are missing part of what's necessary. First there would have to be the Will to issue to the Order to act. That's what's missing. obama would rather the entire task force was at the bottom of the sea.

You're saying Obama has a secret desire to be a one term president?

 

[georgephillip]

Fact:

In 1948 one-third of the citizens of Mandate Palestine imposed a Jewish state by force of arms on the majority of Palestinians.

That's not a "fact,' that's a lie.

The fact is that the Arabs opted out and left - based on the promise of Egypt, Jordan and Syria that they would invade and complete a genocide of the Jews.

You're just butthurt that they failed, and you didn't get your genocide.

Do you accept the following demographics?

"By 1948, there were approximately 1.35 million Arabs and 650,000 Jews living between the Jordan and the Mediterranean, more Arabs than had ever lived in Palestine before, and more Jews than had lived there since Roman times."

MidEast Web - Population of Palestine

 

[georgephillip]

I was at another very active forum when the Millennium Challenge 2002 report came out, we discussed it there.


again, no, if you want specifics, I am not going to engage in a what I am sure will turn into a circular argument, the take away is the Iranian armed forces that could interdict the straits would have a very active but bottom of the funnel life for oh, a week, maybe if they are lucky and we are incredibly stupid, 10 days. there after some sporadic efforts may yield some trouble but, every platform, sea air land that reveals itself would be pummeled in short order.

thats my take and thats why its a hollow threat; they know it , we know it, whats more; they know we know they know it.

If the Iranians sink a US aircraft carrier during that week to ten days of active interdiction their threat becomes significantly less hollow. The US normally instigates shock and awe at a time of its own choosing. Do we know what happens if Iran shocks first?

if they sink an aircraft carrier? dude, what the fuck are you smoking?

Possibly "sink" is too extreme.
Let's say they smoke a US carrier to the same relative degree Israel smoked the USS Liberty:

"Following their torpedo attack, the (Israeli) torpedo boats moved up and down the length of (Liberty) (both the port and starboard sides), continuing their attack, raking the ship with cannon and machine gun fire.[21]

"In Malta, crewmen were later assigned the task of counting all of the holes in the ship that were the size of a man's hand or larger. They found a total of 861 such holes, in addition to 'thousands' of .50 caliber machine gun holes."

Instead of "thousands of .50 caliber machine gun holes" imagine thousands of Iranian missiles used against a US carrier operating in Iran's territorial waters.

USS Liberty Memorial: Summary of Events

 

[uscitizen]

A carrier is a damn big target.

We will lose one sometime if we keep up the replacement act for the USSR long enough.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

If the Iranians sink a US aircraft carrier during that week to ten days of active interdiction their threat becomes significantly less hollow. The US normally instigates shock and awe at a time of its own choosing. Do we know what happens if Iran shocks first?

if they sink an aircraft carrier? dude, what the fuck are you smoking?

Possibly "sink" is too extreme.
Let's say they smoke a US carrier to the same relative degree Israel smoked the USS Liberty:

"Following their torpedo attack, the (Israeli) torpedo boats moved up and down the length of (Liberty) (both the port and starboard sides), continuing their attack, raking the ship with cannon and machine gun fire.[21]

"In Malta, crewmen were later assigned the task of counting all of the holes in the ship that were the size of a man's hand or larger. They found a total of 861 such holes, in addition to 'thousands' of .50 caliber machine gun holes."

Instead of "thousands of .50 caliber machine gun holes" imagine thousands of Iranian missiles used against a US carrier operating in Iran's territorial waters.

USS Liberty Memorial: Summary of Events

Iran does not have thousands of missiles capable of targeting surface ships.

 

[Quantum Windbag]

A carrier is a damn big target.

We will lose one sometime if we keep up the replacement act for the USSR long enough.

Not when you look at an entire ocean.

 

[georgephillip]

Obviously, most of the posters here dont have a freaking clue of the awesome capabilities of a US Naval Carrier Task force. It would shut down Irans naval forces within hours and then call in the Air force to slam the Irainian infrastrucure and command and control capabilites. It would be boom pow pow, all over. Even with barry in charge it would be easy.

"Western naval vessels would have the defensive capabilities to cope with Iranian anti-ship missiles in a hypothetical engagement in open waters, but the Strait of Hormuz is a different operating environment.

"Missiles fired from shore-based batteries may be picked up late and counter-measures not deployed in time - particularly if the target is operating close to land.

"Hence, Iranian land-based anti-ship missiles would present a clear danger to both naval and merchant vessels operating close to shore and in the narrow sea lanes of the Strait."

How dangerous are Iran

 

[uscitizen]

The us would likely stand off their carriers and do the job of keeping the gulf open with planes and smaller attack ships.

This will have mixed results. missile snipers still get a few tankers in the straight.

 

[SFC Ollie]

One carrier group could do the job, and will, if Iran starts anything after Obama is gone from the White House.......