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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/com-2_5_06_SC.htmlBERLIN -- Will the last person in Europe please turn out the lights? That's the question being asked from Moscow to Madrid, where people are having fewer babies than ever before. The continent is anticipating something hard to imagine 30 years ago: a shrinking population.
A generation ago, we were warned that the "population explosion" would lead to famine, war and environmental catastrophe. Today, the alleged danger is a population implosion.
No one disputes the basic trend. Here in Germany, the average woman has 1.4 children, well short of the 2.1 needed to keep the population roughly stable without immigration. In Italy, Spain and Greece, the rate is around 1.3. In the United States, by contrast, the rate is around the replacement level.
Even with the addition of immigrants, Europe's population is projected to decline after 2025. Germany alone will probably lose some 8 million people by the middle of the century.
European leaders have begun to take action. Last week, the French government announced higher government stipends for parents who take leave from their jobs to have a third child. German family affairs minister Ursula von der Leyen -- the mother of seven -- wants the Berlin government to increase subsidies for childbearing.
Pessimism abounds. "Germans are at risk of dying out," warns one expert. American Catholic theologian George Weigel says Europe is committing "demographic suicide." He fears for the fate of a continent that "declines to create the human future in the most elemental sense, by creating a next generation."
But rest easy: There will be a next generation of Europeans, and another one after that. To call a decline in population "suicide" is like referring to a diet as "starvation." Europeans are not refusing to reproduce -- they are just doing it at a slower pace than their parents and grandparents did.
This is not a sign of failure. It's a sign of success. For millennia, parents had to produce babies in large numbers just to see some survive to adulthood. Today, thanks to better nutrition and medical care, people can bear fewer children but still count on having grandchildren.
The economic calculus has also changed radically. Children used to become productive assets early in life, laboring in fields, factories or the home. So people generally had lots of them.
But in the developed world, kids no longer contribute much to their upkeep until well beyond adolescence. On the contrary, they require ever-increasing investments in education, as well as designer clothes, music lessons, sports camps and iPods. When the cost of a child rises, it's not surprising that most parents would choose to have one or two instead of three or six.
Once upon a time, of course, many people had little choice on whether to bear children. Let's call these people "women." Lacking birth control or many alternatives beyond marriage and motherhood, they got to spend a lot of time pregnant whether they wanted to or not.
For women in Europe, things have improved. They have other options -- pursuing demanding careers, extending their educations, remaining single -- and many embrace them.
Men, too, enjoy more choices than before, some of which are incompatible with large families. If males and females conclude that the pursuit of happiness entails fewer children, it's hard to see why governments should encourage them to have kids they don't especially want.
The only real problem is that the combination of fewer births and longer lives makes the European welfare state even less affordable than it already is. As the retiree population grows and the number of working adults falls, the tax burden on workers will get excruciatingly heavy.
Europe could increase its population by admitting immigrants. But there are other obvious remedies to the problem. The first is for people to extend their working lives, supporting themselves instead of asking younger folks to support them. It's hardly cruel to say that the tradeoff for getting to live past 80 is to keep working past 65.
The other antidote is to boost economic growth -- generating greater income and wealth that can be used for a variety of purposes. That is something many countries in Europe know they need to do anyway. The looming demographic change may serve the useful purpose of getting them to do it sooner rather than later.
Like any major change, a declining population will cause some pain. But with intelligent adjustments, there is no reason Europe can't be prosperous and stable with fewer Europeans. A couple of years ago, after all, it was exactly that.
dilloduck said:It seems as though immigrants are happy to take the place of the aborted population. Europeans may be a vanishing breed but I bet Europe as a continent increases in actual population.
Bonnie said:Seems there is plenty more room in Europe for Muslims now, pretty soon they will a voting block to reckon with. I wonder how French women feel about being forced to wear Burkha's???
Harmageddon said:....
They just need to be told that this is so, and that it is no longer necessary.
.
No it's not.Harmageddon said:European intellectuals seize to procreate the most, followed by the rest of the indigenous population, that is correct. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the world is overpopulated as it is.
Actually they just haven't been programmed with the self guilt the left has programmed into the west.And yes, the wretched and the dispossessed that have flooded into the continent over the last decennia, have a different mindset when it comes to procreation. I believe this has mostly to do with the fact that they are used to the idea that they need their children as a life insurance when they reach old age.
That's right. Children will be grown in test tubes, and socialism will cure all financial problems. right? Liar.Nothing wrong with that, perfectly natural.
They just need to be told that this is so, and that it is no longer necessary.
As for you people that are afraid that Europe will be a Muslim theocratic Union in the near future, I believe you have no clue about Europe, nor the Middle East. America alienates itself ever further from the rest of the world, including it's longtime allies. Because of America's disdain for the rest of the world, this naturally means that from the American perspective, the rest of the world seems to be cooperating more and more.
With a little propaganda, that can easily transform into the belief that the rest of the world is working against you. And if you are paranoid, so be it.
Europe was founded by the slaughter of millions, Europe conquered the world several times over, and christianity has become the dominant religion by slaughtering the muslims by the thousands. Christians prevailed, not Muslims.
After that, (luckily) Europe has become largely secular.
But not so in the rest of the world, it needs to do some catching up.
You forgot option 3...Islam winsrtwngAvngr said:Islam is a backward, hateful ideology which will be reformed or destroyed.
Originally posted by CSM:
Umm...so you mean to tell me that all we have to do is TELL them and all will be well???? Gosh, why didn't we think of that?
Guess what....you are WRONG!
Then again, "not" spells I - a - g - r - e - e.Originally posted by rtwngAvngr:
No it's not.
I do not feel guilty at all, but then I have nothing to fear but fear itself.Originally posted by rtwngAvngr:
Actually they just haven't been programmed with the self guilt the left has programmed into the west.
You are living in a fantasy world.Originally posted by rtwngAvngr:
That's right. Children will be grown in test tubes, and socialism will cure all financial problems. right? Liar.
I agree. Islam will have to face the hard lessons that secular Europe already taught Christianity and the Jewish faith.Originally posted by rtwngAvngr:
Islam is a backward, hateful ideology which will be reformed or destroyed.
Again, I tend to agree with you. However, like most international issues, it is a very complex problem. Mutual agreement between nations lasts about as long as the next disagreement. Enforcing responsability on others is not an easy thing to do, in particular if such enforcement is not fair and even handed. Even "fair and even handed" leads to great disagreement.Harmageddon said:hehe, grin
Enforcing a one child policy is not my idea of progress.
Although for China, which already sports a population of 1,3 billion people, it does not sound like a bad idea for the time being.
But people across the globe need to realize that the earth is a limited planet.
We seriously need to reconsider our current level of carelessness, and maybe take some responsibility for a change. If everyone chips in, it doesn't have to have a major impact on our lives.
Harmageddon said:hehe, grin
Enforcing a one child policy is not my idea of progress.
Although for China, which already sports a population of 1,3 billion people, it does not sound like a bad idea for the time being.
But people across the globe need to realize that the earth is a limited planet.
We seriously need to reconsider our current level of carelessness, and maybe take some responsibility for a change. If everyone chips in, it doesn't have to have a major impact on our lives.
I reject your guilt, commie. Europe is in shambles. You've dealt terribly with islam. You're left a vacuum and islam is filling the void. Good job, idiots.Harmageddon said:I do not feel guilty at all, but then I have nothing to fear but fear itself.
Yet I am a leftist, not a communist. I just feel the need for responsibility, and I believe that responsibility is what is lacking. Maybe you are too selfish, rtwngAvngr.
Harmageddon said:hehe, grin
Enforcing a one child policy is not my idea of progress.
Although for China, which already sports a population of 1,3 billion people, it does not sound like a bad idea for the time being.
But people across the globe need to realize that the earth is a limited planet.
We seriously need to reconsider our current level of carelessness, and maybe take some responsibility for a change. If everyone chips in, it doesn't have to have a major impact on our lives.
I dont know if you have a reading disorder, but I did not say what you assert I did. So cut the crap.Originally posted by theHawk:
Harma...a one-child policy is communist. How nice of you to "prefer" dialogue, but if that doesn't work then its ok to force it? Its not your idea, yet you don't object to it. Typical lib speech. Just goes to show ya socialists are nothing but communists at heart, even if they don't know it. Anyway, go ahead with your teaching all of Islam a lesson you supposedly taught Christians and Jews. We'll just sit back and watch the elite Euros handle them.
No, I do not advocate we should all follow suit.Originally posted by Bonnie:
So you advocate the killing of children born after the one child per couple allotment as they do in China then???
Dude, you have guilt written all over you. Replace Europe with America and re-read your post.Originally posted by rtwngAvngr:
I reject your guilt, commie. Europe is in shambles. You've dealt terribly with islam. You're left a vacuum and islam is filling the void. Good job, idiots.
Greetings from the European Union, that will in the near future be forced to re-colonize a world full of idiots. See you soon; try not to kill yourself in the meantime.Originally posted by Abbey Normal:
Our newest continent: EURABIA
Maybe you should talk to your frustrated buddy, rtwngAvngr about this he seems to think along the same lines, and as he seems smarter, he may be able to teach you some rhetoric.Originally posted by dilloduck:
Stop having sex,then. Sterilize yourself. Get all you friends to join you. Maybe the world will follow by your example. That would be responsible. I will be responsible for myself and you can stay the hell out of my business. :finger:
Yes, let's address the overpopulation question. The world is overpopulated and thus people are poor. Right? Maybe not. The problem is actually lack of the efficient distribution of resources in countries that have bad economic policies. Japan is a very populous country, yet it is quite prosperous, why? Because of a free market economy. China is the most populous country on earth, yet they are now experiencing a huge leap in their standard of living, why? Because China has embraced free market capitalism, at least in a limited sense. Look at the Soviet Union, the largest nation on earth with many natural resources. For millenia, the Ukraine was the breadbasket of Europe. One generation of communism and the whole country could not feed itself. The world isn't actually overpopulated, although some regions are. The real problem is that many parts of the earth are ruled by governments that refuse to understand economics or practice good economics.Harmageddon said:European intellectuals seize to procreate the most, followed by the rest of the indigenous population, that is correct. This is not necessarily a bad thing, because the world is overpopulated as it is.
The world hates America, in spite of the fact that we funnel billions of dollars in aid to other countries. That is mainly because of propaganda, from the Communists, Socialists, and so forth.As for you people that are afraid that Europe will be a Muslim theocratic Union in the near future, I believe you have no clue about Europe, nor the Middle East. America alienates itself ever further from the rest of the world, including it's longtime allies. Because of America's disdain for the rest of the world, this naturally means that from the American perspective, the rest of the world seems to be cooperating more and more.
With a little propaganda, that can easily transform into the belief that the rest of the world is working against you. And if you are paranoid, so be it.
They educate you well in those European schools, don't they? The problem is whites, Americans and Christians. That's it! You display the classic "class warfare" mindset.Europe was founded by the slaughter of millions, Europe conquered the world several times over, and christianity has become the dominant religion by slaughtering the muslims by the thousands. Christians prevailed, not Muslims.
After that, (luckily) Europe has become largely secular.
