Discussion in 'Congress' started by KMAN, Aug 27, 2008.
Conventions Typically Result in Five-Point Bounce
I am beginning to believe that the pollsters aren't polling the right people anymore. They are using demographics from the past that don't accurately reflect the present or the future.
Generally I believe polls to be a fairly accurate picture of the moment.
The moment changes and then what have you?
As we get closer and closer to election day their significance will become increasingly more important.
But this far out?
Well, they tell us something, but not anything signficant.
I have been surprised to see the democrats not benefitting in the polls from the convention so far.
I am curious to see what happens Friday when McCain announces his VP pick.
They tell us trends, which at this point is more important than actual results.
Right now the trend is that Obama is losing steam, fast.
And, as the thread title states, he should get a five-point bounce, which so far has not surfaced.
Yeah, I think that's correct.
Bound to happen.
Don't worry the Democrats already have their excuses ready. They will have been cheated if they lose AND it will be because white Americans are all racist and voted for McCain. Never mind that both can not be true.
Not really, that may be your fantasy, but it isn't fact.
Do you know that you don't have a trend in data until at least 6 points have been moving up or down consecuatively? One raise in the polls does not make a trend.
This will be just like the big Clinton win. McCain won't and we will get our country back.
As a person who studies data on a daily basis, I know that you're full of shit.
The projection now is that Obama will enjoy a "bounce" of 1 point. Does that mean that he actually lost 5?
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