Contention: Newtown should not drive public policy

[catzmeow]

Statistically speaking, mass murder hasn't changed much in the U.S. since the 1980s. In fact, violent crime is at the lowest level since the late 1970s, even when we include the recent mass murders. Since the 1980s, there has only been a small increase in the average number of mass murder victims annually (1.2%).

Mass murder rises as other killings decline - East Valley Tribune: Nation / World

According to recently released FBI statistics, homicides involving two or more victims rose from 1,360 incidents in 2008 to 1,428 incidents last year. That's a 5 percent increase even though homicides, overall, dropped nearly 7 percent...

Data on mass murders for 2009 are not yet available, but these killings involving four or more victims have been rising slightly in recent years. For the three-year period 2006 to 2008, an annual average of 163 Americans perished in acts of mass killing, up from the annual average of 161 during the 1980s.

I know it's a horrifying topic, but this isn't a new problem. In fact, it's barely changed since the 80s.

Realizing that fact can keep us from making overcorrections in public policy, whether those proposed plans are to limit firearm availability, censor violent video games, or post armed guards in every school in our county. Regardless of gun laws, the distribution of violent video games, or armed security, the U.S. has historically suffered from mass murders.

I find that even though I have an emotional reaction to these kinds of crimes, it's helpful to look at crime stats in context:

From 1980 to 2008, at least 4,685 people have perished in 965 reported incidents of mass murder involving at least four fatalities committed during the same incident. Multiple homicides involving at least two victims took 44,163 lives in 19,568 incidents.

That's an annual average of about 163. In 2012, there were 151 victims of mass murder in the U.S.

That's actually lower than average.

Here's another helpful article...mass murders represent only about 1% of all homicides. In spite of the horrifying nature of the mass murders in 2012, they have remained rare.

Mass killings occur in USA once every two weeks

Personally, I'm not a fan of overreacting, and I don't believe we should be making major changes because of Newtown.

But, that's just me. YMMV.

 

[AmyNation]

But, it feeeels like things are worse now than ever before!

 

[catzmeow]

I would suggest that this inaccurate perception has a simple explanation.

In 1980, we didn't have a 24 hour news cycle with multiple news organizations competing for our attention, and overplaying the same stories about violence on a continuous loop.

 

[catzmeow]

Interesting, related research study:

http://wcr.sonoma.edu/v6n1/manuscripts/duwe.pdf

Over the past twenty years, claimsmakers have asserted that the mid-1960s marked the beginning of an unprecedented and ever-growing mass murder wave in the United States. Recent research has shown, however, that mass murder was just as common during the 1920s and 30s as it has been since the mid-1960s. Using the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) and newspaper, network television news, and newsweekly magazine coverage as sources of data, this study examines why and how mass murder was constructed as a new crime problem.

In short: Mass murder is a real problem in the U.S., but it isn't a new problem. And, it doesn't appear to have any link to video games or firearms possession.

 

[JustTheFacts]

I would suggest that this inaccurate perception has a simple explanation.

In 1980, we didn't have a 24 hour news cycle with multiple news organizations competing for our attention, and overplaying the same stories about violence on a continuous loop.

No doubt some truth to that. But I still the biggest difference is we don't understand WHY someone would shoot up a movie theater or a preschool.

Someone shoots up a block of gang bangers? Too bad for them, no doubt they were shot before they could shoot whoever shot them, we can all understand that, but these recent shootings are different. NO amount of denying it will make that any less true.

 

[catzmeow]

No doubt some truth to that. But I still the biggest difference is we don't understand WHY someone would shoot up a movie theater or a preschool.

Someone shoots up a block of gang bangers? Too bad for them, no doubt they were shot before they could shoot whoever shot them, we can all understand that, but these recent shootings are different. NO amount of denying it will make that any less true.

We don't understand why Lizzie Borden hacked her family to death with an axe, either.

Probably, because she was mentally ill.

The recent shootings aren't different from the mass murders described in the linked article that occurred in 1966.

I think you want them to be, because you have a pet justification for why this might be, but you are factually inaccurate in your assumptions.

 

[oldfart]

There are several distinctly different gun problems in the United States and it is not very helpful to try to lump them all together. The circumstances at Newtown CT are sufficiently unusual that I don't see how most proposed gun control solutions would reasonably have had much effect. That said, there are gun control measures that would be very useful for some of the other gun violence problems, such as access to guns by criminals and accidental shootings involving children.

I really don't see how anything improves until there are universal background checks and measures to criminalize straw man sales. There is now literally nothing that prevents mass murderers, child molesters, serial rapists, professional hit men, assorted soldiers of fortune seeking rocket propelled ordinance, fledgling arms dealers for assorted rogue states and criminal enterprises, and terrorist groups from easily obtaining whatever weapons and explosives they desire.

 

[Trajan]

I have to say when this thing went down, I got sick of it, pretty quickly. The coverage became, grotesque(?), it almost rubs our faces in it so yes I agree totally agree about the news cycle making this appear, not worse, but more prevalent(?).


random thoughts-

-O'Reilly had a mother and her daughter on ( the daughter present at the school) when it went down and asked the usually inane questions, I thought to myself why would that mother allow her child to be interviewed like that, maybe she feels it has some cathartic therapeutic effect, I personally don't see it......


-Giffords was shot with a handgun btw, yes, with a "high capacity" magazine, which I have no problem controlling.


-I have no problem with the gun show background check either, I agree its not exactly smart to allow someone to be able to buy a weapon on the spot sans any check at all.

- In California, Assault rifles are not permitted for sale nor are magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, plus assault rifles have whats called a Bullet button which is a small detent, you must use a tool to release the magazine, preventing quick magazine changes, to buy one you have to take delivery at a licensed dealer if you order online or enact a private sale, I am an assault weapons owner, I have no issue with any of this.

 

[OODA_Loop]

We don't understand why Lizzie Borden hacked her family to death with an axe, either.

Probably, because she was mentally ill.

I blame the axe.

 

[catzmeow]

Probably. I blame the family.

 

[JustTheFacts]

No doubt some truth to that. But I still the biggest difference is we don't understand WHY someone would shoot up a movie theater or a preschool.

Someone shoots up a block of gang bangers? Too bad for them, no doubt they were shot before they could shoot whoever shot them, we can all understand that, but these recent shootings are different. NO amount of denying it will make that any less true.

We don't understand why Lizzie Borden hacked her family to death with an axe, either.

Probably, because she was mentally ill.

The recent shootings aren't different from the mass murders described in the linked article that occurred in 1966.

I think you want them to be, because you have a pet justification for why this might be, but you are factually inaccurate in your assumptions.

What exaftly do you think my pet justification is?

 

[PaulS1950]

I believe Lizzy was found not guilty of "hacking" her parents up. There was another suspect that they never found.
A Bill of Attainder is a law that punishes a person or group of people without a trial to determine guilt. It is constitutionally unlawfull. An ex-post facto law is a law that is passed after the fact that applies to individuals who acted legally before the law was enacted. It is also constitutionally unlawul. No law can be passed that criminalizes people who legally already own guns - no matter what they are.
The supreme court has already said that the second amendment protects the right to own guns that are consistant with the use by a militia. Semi-automatic rifles are definitely in that group.
A 30 round magazine is not a high capacity magazine in an AR-15, it is the standard size.

 

[catzmeow]

No doubt some truth to that. But I still the biggest difference is we don't understand WHY someone would shoot up a movie theater or a preschool.

Someone shoots up a block of gang bangers? Too bad for them, no doubt they were shot before they could shoot whoever shot them, we can all understand that, but these recent shootings are different. NO amount of denying it will make that any less true.

We don't understand why Lizzie Borden hacked her family to death with an axe, either.

Probably, because she was mentally ill.

The recent shootings aren't different from the mass murders described in the linked article that occurred in 1966.

I think you want them to be, because you have a pet justification for why this might be, but you are factually inaccurate in your assumptions.

What exaftly do you think my pet justification is?

I think you think these games are bad/detrimental, you worry about the effects on children, because that seems intuitive to you, in spite of the lack of increased crime/violence.

And, like many people, I suspect that you believe that America's crime problems have gotten worse, when in actuality, they've gotten better. Our perception of a worsening problem is not based upon actual crime statistics.

Crime and violence have both decreased since the advent of violent video games. In fact, they are at their lowest levels since the 1970s. There were 151 mass murders in 2012, which is 7% less than the average for 2000-2010.

In other words, it's getting less violent in the U.S., not more violent. That runs counter to most people's perceptions, and I blame the 24-hour news cycle for those perceptions faulty perceptions.

 

[JustTheFacts]

We don't understand why Lizzie Borden hacked her family to death with an axe, either.

Probably, because she was mentally ill.

The recent shootings aren't different from the mass murders described in the linked article that occurred in 1966.

I think you want them to be, because you have a pet justification for why this might be, but you are factually inaccurate in your assumptions.

What exaftly do you think my pet justification is?

I think you think these games are bad/detrimental, you worry about the effects on children, because that seems intuitive to you, in spite of the lack of increased crime/violence.

And, like many people, I suspect that you believe that America's crime problems have gotten worse, when in actuality, they've gotten better. Our perception of a worsening problem is not based upon actual crime statistics.

Crime and violence have both decreased since the advent of violent video games. In fact, they are at their lowest levels since the 1970s. There were 151 mass murders in 2012, which is 7% less than the average for 2000-2010.

In other words, it's getting less violent in the U.S., not more violent. That runs counter to most people's perceptions, and I blame the 24-hour news cycle for those perceptions faulty perceptions.

Then your perception is wrong. My contention is that shitty parenting is the root cause. Though I made that clear.

I just wonder if the amount and types of video games shitty parents let their kids play plays any part in it. To me that issue is less clear.

 

[M14 Shooter]

The people pushing gun control see the Newtown shooting as a means to an end, an and that has nothing to do with public safety.

Never let a good crisis go to waste; what better crisis than the bloody death of 20 schoolkids?

 

[catzmeow]

IO'Reilly had a mother and her daughter on ( the daughter present at the school) when it went down and asked the usually inane questions, I thought to myself why would that mother allow her child to be interviewed like that, maybe she feels it has some cathartic therapeutic effect, I personally don't see it......

Our fascination with death is grotesque.

-Giffords was shot with a handgun btw, yes, with a "high capacity" magazine, which I have no problem controlling.

Agreed.

-I have no problem with the gun show background check either, I agree its not exactly smart to allow someone to be able to buy a weapon on the spot sans any check at all.

Ditto.

In California, Assault rifles are not permitted for sale nor are magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, plus assault rifles have whats called a Bullet button which is a small detent, you must use a tool to release the magazine, preventing quick magazine changes, to buy one you have to take delivery at a licensed dealer if you order online or enact a private sale, I am an assault weapons owner, I have no issue with any of this.

Same here.

 

[PaulS1950]

AR-15s are sold in California - They even have a legislated model just for california because of mandated controls

 

[JustTheFacts]

IO'Reilly had a mother and her daughter on ( the daughter present at the school) when it went down and asked the usually inane questions, I thought to myself why would that mother allow her child to be interviewed like that, maybe she feels it has some cathartic therapeutic effect, I personally don't see it......

Our fascination with death is grotesque.

-Giffords was shot with a handgun btw, yes, with a "high capacity" magazine, which I have no problem controlling.

Agreed.

-I have no problem with the gun show background check either, I agree its not exactly smart to allow someone to be able to buy a weapon on the spot sans any check at all.

Ditto.

In California, Assault rifles are not permitted for sale nor are magazines that hold more than 10 rounds, plus assault rifles have whats called a Bullet button which is a small detent, you must use a tool to release the magazine, preventing quick magazine changes, to buy one you have to take delivery at a licensed dealer if you order online or enact a private sale, I am an assault weapons owner, I have no issue with any of this.

Same here.

On the mom's part? I don't think that's what motivated her. I think people are all about getting their 15 minutes. However they can get it. Even exploiting a traumatized daughter.

 

[catzmeow]

On the mom's part? I don't think that's what motivated her. I think people are all about getting their 15 minutes. However they can get it. Even exploiting a traumatized daughter.

I wasn't talking about mom's motivation. I was talking about why news outlets air those kinds of interviews: people watch them. It's a business. They air those kinds of things to increase their number of viewers.

 

[JustTheFacts]

On the mom's part? I don't think that's what motivated her. I think people are all about getting their 15 minutes. However they can get it. Even exploiting a traumatized daughter.

I wasn't talking about mom's motivation. I was talking about why news outlets air those kinds of interviews: people watch them. It's a business. They air those kinds of things to increase their number of viewers.

This is why I asked for clarification. On your point, we are agreed.