Statistikhengst
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As usual very good information. One could almost infer from your data that American's like divided Government. My personal bias is that in the current political environment, whichever party is in the White House, there needs to be the check and balance of some opposition in Congress.
This is an excellent article from Larry Sabato, Ph.D who is one of the foremost political experts in the U.S. It largely agrees with your data. You might find it interesting.
Republicans Really Could Win It All This Year - Larry J. Sabato - POLITICO Magazine
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
Yes, one could almost infer that, and I would not disagree with it. I myself have voted split-ticket in Presidential elections, but only after carefully studying the candidates and their positions. In Ohio, judges are elected but their bios are usually pretty scarce, you really have to dig to find out what they are about, and some real crazy nuts have gone on the ballot for that job. But most Americans just see a bunch of names that they don't recognize (other than Prez/VP, a Senator, maybe a Governor, maybe, just maybe, their Rep) and start checking or marking in boxes....
BTW, I have had some very lively internet conversations with Larry Sabato, and if you notice, I mentioned his book "Toward a more perfect Union" in the large thread over electioneering. He's a pretty decent guy and writes some solid stuff.
Historically, this should be a GOP year. And the sparse early polling is showing that to some degree. But, as with any year, we need to see how the whole thing plays out. Twice in a row now, the GOP had a real chance to take the Senate and twice in a row, it blew it's chances. Plus, the GOP is wobbling in two states, depending on which candidate wins the primaries. But no matter how you slice it, it's advantage GOP in the Senate.
And in the House, my gut tells me we will see record numbers of Reps announcing retirement - from both parties - which should make the field more fun and somewhat more competitive, but here again, it will be a much heavier lift for the DEMS than for the GOP, that is clear. As the table (if you linked to it, if not, please do) shows, we one saw swings of 80 or more Reps each cycle a whole lot in the past. This also meant that Reps' careers were considerably more short-lived than today.
Historically, the opposition party is by far more energized than the incumbent party in the White House. Wait and see.
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