Computer Models and the Environment

[Weatherman2020]

To create an accurate computer model in forecasting you need two basic things:

1. An understanding of all the variables and how those variables interact with each other.

2. The ability to take that known information on variables and translate it into a software program.

See the circle after Florence makes landfall? That’s the path Florence can take - about a 330 degree arc. Different computer models are all pointing in different directions after landfall. And we’re only 2 days from landfall.

Why? Because we are infants at points 1 & 2.

Remember that the next time someone says the computer models predict this or that in a hundred years.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Here’s what the computer models do. They all have identical input as to data. When Florence makes landfall the direction goes in all directions.

Man has a difficult time understanding nature.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Here’s what the computer models do. They all have identical input as to data. When Florence makes landfall the direction goes in all directions.

Man has a difficult time understanding nature.

View attachment 216075

The GCM's can not extrapolate the multiple grid square levels above the same point the closer they come to land. They simply do not have the ability to determine flow asymmetry and pressure gradient changes in the transition from water to land. They have issues above water alone.... They simply do not have the information to model things correctly.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Here’s what the computer models do. They all have identical input as to data. When Florence makes landfall the direction goes in all directions.

Man has a difficult time understanding nature.

View attachment 216075

The GCM's can not extrapolate the multiple grid square levels above the same point the closer they come to land. They simply do not have the ability to determine flow asymmetry and pressure gradient changes in the transition from water to land. They have issues above water alone.... They simply do not have the information to model things correctly.

Long long way to go.

 

[Old Rocks]

Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

Yeah, that’s why every computer model sends Florence in a different direction just 48 hours out.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

Agreed, we need more nuclear energy.

Oh, I stopped listening after he said "fossil fuels"

 

[Weatherman2020]

Now 12 hours closer to landfill that probability circle exploded instead of getting tighter. Florence may go in any direction at landfall. And it may speed up, or it may slow down. The computer models and a dart board compete once again.

 

[fncceo]

The only climate model I trust...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Really? Here are the facts on the early climate models. All your lies will not change this.

So accurate, it's eerie

 

[Weatherman2020]

 

[Old Rocks]

Really fucking stupid on your part. As the storm approached the coast, the models zeroed in on the point of impact. However, you cannot wait until you know that point exactly, or you will not be able to evacuate millions of people out of the storms path.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Really fucking stupid on your part. As the storm approached the coast, the models zeroed in on the point of impact. However, you cannot wait until you know that point exactly, or you will not be able to evacuate millions of people out of the storms path.

Once again you spin. Every computer model went into a Keystone Kops routine at landfall, sending the hurricane in a 330 degree potential course.

News flash for you Mr Anti Science: Hurricanes do not end at the shoreline.