Clinton Hispanic Advantage Smaller Among U.S.-Born Hispanics

[toomuchtime_]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Though U.S. Hispanics overall view Hillary Clinton three times more favorably than they do Donald Trump (65% to 21%), her edge is significantly smaller among U.S.-born Hispanics (43% to 29%). Meanwhile, foreign-born Hispanics are almost seven times more likely to view Clinton (87%) than Trump (13%) favorably.

These data come from Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations poll, conducted June 7-July 1.

Notably, U.S.-born Hispanics' views of the candidates are similar to those of the larger population of national adults. Forty-three percent of U.S.-born Hispanics and 44% of national adults view Clinton favorably. Twenty-nine percent of U.S.-born Hispanics view Trump favorably, while his favorability is 34% among national adults.

Therefore, Clinton owes a lot of her overall image advantage among Hispanics to those born outside the U.S.

Clinton is working to transform her higher favorability among Hispanics into solid electoral support. And while Hispanics' Democratic voting history makes it more likely they will vote for Clinton than for Trump, more uncertain is how many Hispanics will turn out to support her.

Fifty-eight percent of Hispanics say they are registered to vote, far less than the 95% of non-Hispanic whites and 87% of non-Hispanic blacks who say the same. But the lower rate of reported Hispanic voter registration is almost entirely attributable to low registration among foreign-born Hispanics. Just 28% of Hispanics born outside the U.S. -- the group that views Clinton so positively -- say they are registered to vote, compared with 87% of those born in the U.S.

This lower voter registration rate could be related partly to citizenship issues, as some foreign-born Hispanics may not be legal U.S. citizens, and therefore are ineligible to vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195146/c...ction 2016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

So according to Gallup, Hillary has only a modest lead over Trump among US born Hispanics and the bulk of her support in the community comes from foreign born Hispanics who are much less likely to vote in November.

Well done. Now on to the African American community and then to the WH.

 

[JakeStarkey]

DJT needs far more than 29% of Hispanics to win.

 

[toomuchtime_]

DJT needs far more than 29% of Hispanics to win.

Perhaps not. If you read the link you know the bulk of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from foreign born Hispanics, including those in the country illegally who will not be allowed to vote and those foreign born Hispanics who will be able to vote have an extremely low voter registration rate.

"Just 28% of Hispanics born outside the U.S. -- the group that views Clinton so positively -- say they are registered to vote, compared with 87% of those born in the U.S."

"Fifty-eight percent of Hispanics say they are registered to vote, far less than the 95% of non-Hispanic whites and 87% of non-Hispanic blacks who say the same. But the lower rate of reported Hispanic voter registration is almost entirely attributable to low registration among foreign-born Hispanics. Just 28% of Hispanics born outside the U.S. -- the group that views Clinton so positively -- say they are registered to vote, compared with 87% of those born in the U.S."

So Hillary has only a very modest lead among those Hispanics who are likely to vote according to Gallup.

 

[g5000]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

 

[g5000]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

 

[JakeStarkey]

"Perhaps not"

DJT needs far more than 29% of Hispanics to win.

Oh, yeah, much more than 29%.

 

[charwin95]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

I totally disagree.
1. How in the world you can take polls from illegals? Go to their houses or calling them in their cell phones? Are you illegal? Who do you favor Trump or Hillary? Illegals are scared getting this kind of question from anybody let alone asking them if they are illegals.
BTW since when an illegals have a house or a land line?
2. All I mean ALL Hispanics especially Mexicans have a friends or relatives that are illegals. They support legal immigration but they opposed deportations. The younger generations came from illegal parents or grand parents. So why in the world of they support Trump?
3. What benefits do they gain by voting Trump? Answer....... Deportation.
4. As I said from several threads. Trump is lucky if he gets over 15% of Hispanic votes.

 

[Syriusly]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Though U.S. Hispanics overall view Hillary Clinton three times more favorably than they do Donald Trump (65% to 21%), her edge is significantly smaller among U.S.-born Hispanics (43% to 29%). Meanwhile, foreign-born Hispanics are almost seven times more likely to view Clinton (87%) than Trump (13%) favorably.

These data come from Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations poll, conducted June 7-July 1.

Notably, U.S.-born Hispanics' views of the candidates are similar to those of the larger population of national adults. Forty-three percent of U.S.-born Hispanics and 44% of national adults view Clinton favorably. Twenty-nine percent of U.S.-born Hispanics view Trump favorably, while his favorability is 34% among national adults.

Therefore, Clinton owes a lot of her overall image advantage among Hispanics to those born outside the U.S.

Clinton is working to transform her higher favorability among Hispanics into solid electoral support. And while Hispanics' Democratic voting history makes it more likely they will vote for Clinton than for Trump, more uncertain is how many Hispanics will turn out to support her.

Fifty-eight percent of Hispanics say they are registered to vote, far less than the 95% of non-Hispanic whites and 87% of non-Hispanic blacks who say the same. But the lower rate of reported Hispanic voter registration is almost entirely attributable to low registration among foreign-born Hispanics. Just 28% of Hispanics born outside the U.S. -- the group that views Clinton so positively -- say they are registered to vote, compared with 87% of those born in the U.S.

This lower voter registration rate could be related partly to citizenship issues, as some foreign-born Hispanics may not be legal U.S. citizens, and therefore are ineligible to vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195146/clinton-hispanic-advantage-smaller-among-born-hispanics.aspxg_source=Election 2016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

So according to Gallup, Hillary has only a modest lead over Trump among US born Hispanics and the bulk of her support in the community comes from foreign born Hispanics who are much less likely to vote in November.

Well done. Now on to the African American community and then to the WH.

What the Gallup poll didn't ask was how they were going to vote.

Next, please tell me whether you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of -- [RANDOM ORDER]?


Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

% %
All U.S. Hispanics 65 21
U.S.-born Hispanics 43 29
Hispanics born in another country 87 13

And this is important- because whilte a whopping 29% of U.S. born hispanics have a favorable opinion of Trump- and a whopping 43% have a favorable opinion of Clinton- that still leaves 28% without a favorable opinion of either.

Who will they be voting for then?

Probably still voting Democrat, since Hispanics are overwhelmingly Democrat.


Remember- the majority of Americans have unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump- but voters will still be voting for Clinton or Trump.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

 

[JakeStarkey]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Yet with an even high national born Hispanic vote in the past, the GOP portion of it has been going down.

No reason exists to think Trump will get 25% of it this time.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

I totally disagree.
1. How in the world you can take polls from illegals? Go to their houses or calling them in their cell phones? Are you illegal? Who do you favor Trump or Hillary? Illegals are scared getting this kind of question from anybody let alone asking them if they are illegals.
BTW since when an illegals have a house or a land line?
2. All I mean ALL Hispanics especially Mexicans have a friends or relatives that are illegals. They support legal immigration but they opposed deportations. The younger generations came from illegal parents or grand parents. So why in the world of they support Trump?
3. What benefits do they gain by voting Trump? Answer....... Deportation.
4. As I said from several threads. Trump is lucky if he gets over 15% of Hispanic votes.

Of course you can't ask if they are illegal, so the polls include illegals who won't be able to vote and foreign born Hispanics of whom only 28% are registered to vote. Since most of Hillary's support among Hispanics comes from these groups of foreign born and only a small percentage of them will be able to vote, the final tally of votes cast by Hispanics will probably Trump with a much higher percentage than polls currently show.

 

[toomuchtime_]

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Though U.S. Hispanics overall view Hillary Clinton three times more favorably than they do Donald Trump (65% to 21%), her edge is significantly smaller among U.S.-born Hispanics (43% to 29%). Meanwhile, foreign-born Hispanics are almost seven times more likely to view Clinton (87%) than Trump (13%) favorably.

These data come from Gallup's annual Minority Rights and Relations poll, conducted June 7-July 1.

Notably, U.S.-born Hispanics' views of the candidates are similar to those of the larger population of national adults. Forty-three percent of U.S.-born Hispanics and 44% of national adults view Clinton favorably. Twenty-nine percent of U.S.-born Hispanics view Trump favorably, while his favorability is 34% among national adults.

Therefore, Clinton owes a lot of her overall image advantage among Hispanics to those born outside the U.S.

Clinton is working to transform her higher favorability among Hispanics into solid electoral support. And while Hispanics' Democratic voting history makes it more likely they will vote for Clinton than for Trump, more uncertain is how many Hispanics will turn out to support her.

Fifty-eight percent of Hispanics say they are registered to vote, far less than the 95% of non-Hispanic whites and 87% of non-Hispanic blacks who say the same. But the lower rate of reported Hispanic voter registration is almost entirely attributable to low registration among foreign-born Hispanics. Just 28% of Hispanics born outside the U.S. -- the group that views Clinton so positively -- say they are registered to vote, compared with 87% of those born in the U.S.

This lower voter registration rate could be related partly to citizenship issues, as some foreign-born Hispanics may not be legal U.S. citizens, and therefore are ineligible to vote.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/195146/clinton-hispanic-advantage-smaller-among-born-hispanics.aspxg_source=Election 2016&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

So according to Gallup, Hillary has only a modest lead over Trump among US born Hispanics and the bulk of her support in the community comes from foreign born Hispanics who are much less likely to vote in November.

Well done. Now on to the African American community and then to the WH.

What the Gallup poll didn't ask was how they were going to vote.

Next, please tell me whether you have a very favorable, favorable, unfavorable or very unfavorable opinion of -- [RANDOM ORDER]?


Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

% %
All U.S. Hispanics 65 21
U.S.-born Hispanics 43 29
Hispanics born in another country 87 13

And this is important- because whilte a whopping 29% of U.S. born hispanics have a favorable opinion of Trump- and a whopping 43% have a favorable opinion of Clinton- that still leaves 28% without a favorable opinion of either.

Who will they be voting for then?

Probably still voting Democrat, since Hispanics are overwhelmingly Democrat.


Remember- the majority of Americans have unfavorable opinions of both Clinton and Trump- but voters will still be voting for Clinton or Trump.

That nearly a third (28%) of US born Hispanics remain undecided tells us that Hispanic support for Hillary is not as strong as some have thought.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Yet with an even high national born Hispanic vote in the past, the GOP portion of it has been going down.

No reason exists to think Trump will get 25% of it this time.

I think there is every reason to believe it will be even higher. The interests of US born Hispanics are more aligned with the interests of other Americans than they are with illegal immigrants and the high % (28%) of undecideds among US born Hispanics indicates this this, imo. Remember that when illegal immigrants take jobs from poor Americans and keep wages low for poor Americans, they are also taking jobs away from poor Hispanic Americans and keeping wages low for poor Hispanic Americans.

 

[JakeStarkey]

toomuchtime has certainly too much on his hands, because the demographics and past performances undermine his arguments.

 

[toomuchtime_]

toomuchtime has certainly too much on his hands, because the demographics and past performances undermine his arguments.

That may be your wish, but in fact, they don't.

 

[g5000]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Again, you are attempting to extrapolate from a single data point, and making erroneous assumptions.

 

[toomuchtime_]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Again, you are attempting to extrapolate from a single data point, and making erroneous assumptions.

I'm just reporting what Gallup said without making any assumptions.

 

[JakeStarkey]

It's all going to come down to the Hispanic vote.

2004: Bush won 58 percent of the white vote, and 44 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2008: John McCain won 55 percent of the white vote, and 31 percent of the Hispanic vote.

2012: Mitt Romney won 59 percent of the white vote. He won 27 percent of the Hispanic vote.


As you can see, there has been a dramatic downward trend of the Hispanic vote for the GOP, without a commensurate rise in the white vote.

Hispanics made the difference between a Bush win and the McCain and Romney losses.

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Again, you are attempting to extrapolate from a single data point, and making erroneous assumptions.

I'm just reporting what Gallup said without making any assumptions.

yeah, you have been making assumptions based on a data point and single source.

 

[toomuchtime_]

Since the poll shows most of Hillary's support in the Hispanic community comes from illegals who can't vote or foreign born Hispanics who have an extraordinarily low rate of voter registration, it is unclear what % of he Hispanic votes actually cast on election day Trump will win.

You are attempting to extrapolate from a single frame of reference.

For your theory to hold even a drop of water, you will have to show there is a smaller percentage of registered Hispanic voters than there were in 2012, 2008, and 2004.

Otherwise, Trump will need to achieve somewhere north of 31 percent of the Hispanic vote to win.

I'm just repeating what the Gallup survey found. 31% of the Hispanic votes actually cast or even more is certainly possible since only 28% of the group that strongly supports Hillary are registered to vote.

Again, you are attempting to extrapolate from a single data point, and making erroneous assumptions.

I'm just reporting what Gallup said without making any assumptions.

yeah, you have been making assumptions based on a data point and single source.

I made no assumptions. I just reported what Gallup said. You simply don't like the outcome of the Gallup poll or the conclusions Gallup reached based on this poll.

Relax,you're not under attack by a vast right wing conspiracy.