In a paper published in the Journal of Forecasting the researchers found that computer models of climate change were significantly worse at prediction than random guesses.
Veeeeryy interesting...if you care about science that is.
The test measures the sum of errors relative to the random walk. A perfect model gets a score of zero, meaning it made no errors. A model that does no better than a random walk gets a score of 1. A model receiving a score above 1 did worse than uninformed guesses. Simple statistical forecast models that have no climatology or physics in them typically got scores between 0.8 and 1, indicating slight improvements on the random walk, though in some cases their scores went as high as 1.8.
The climate models, by contrast, got scores ranging from 2.4 to 3.7, indicating a total failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales. The authors commented: This implies that the current [climate] models are ill-suited to localized decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policymaking.
http://nikolaos.kourentzes.com/papers/Climate_Fildes_Kourentzes.pdf
Veeeeryy interesting...if you care about science that is.
The test measures the sum of errors relative to the random walk. A perfect model gets a score of zero, meaning it made no errors. A model that does no better than a random walk gets a score of 1. A model receiving a score above 1 did worse than uninformed guesses. Simple statistical forecast models that have no climatology or physics in them typically got scores between 0.8 and 1, indicating slight improvements on the random walk, though in some cases their scores went as high as 1.8.
The climate models, by contrast, got scores ranging from 2.4 to 3.7, indicating a total failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales. The authors commented: This implies that the current [climate] models are ill-suited to localized decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policymaking.
http://nikolaos.kourentzes.com/papers/Climate_Fildes_Kourentzes.pdf
