Clarifications for edthecynic

[IanC]

edthecynic complained about broken links that he couldnt find for himself so I thought I would post them for him now that I am back at my computer.

edthecynic
Censored for Cynicism
Member #13101 Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 7,917
Blog Entries: 4
Thanks: 161
Thanked 734 Times in 637 Posts
Rep Power: 77


Quote: Originally Posted by IanC
I just did a little experiment. I chose 1920, 1960 and 2000 as random years in areas I expected lowered, unchanged and increased 'adjustments'. unfortunately I dont have pre-1999 data. my expectation was that by 2006 Hansen's GISS had raised recent temps and lowered old ones and left the pivot area unchanged. in 2007 Hansen got the slap in the face when an AMATEUR pointed out his data was afflicted with a Y2K bug so he had to hurriedly correct his numbers (somewhat) to save face while the spotlight was on him. after the media attention died down he was free to start 'correcting' things again.

1920 started low in 2006 -.45, corrected higher in 2007 -41 and then steadily dropped again in 2008 and 2011 -.43 and -.449

1960 went from -.22 to -.24 to -.24 to -.230. nothing much

2000 went from .65 all the way down to .52, started up in 2008 to .54 and has skyrocketted all the way up to .692 in 2011.

seems suspicious to me but Im sure they have a perfectly reasonable explanation. /sarc
Again, no links to the original data.
I decided to waste more time checking 1920 against the 3 links you gave for pre 2007 data, 2007 data and 2011 data and all 3 show the SAME -.449 as the anomaly.

I notice you are avoiding the thread where your source used a -662.4 C as the April 2011 continental USA anomaly. That means to deniers the USA was 662.4 degrees C below the 30 year average USA temp!!!!

I'm sure YOU have a perfectly reasonable explanation. /sarc

here is the link to the wayback machine for US continental temperatures. Internet Archive Wayback Machine

here is the actual numbers from 10Jan2006, before Hansen and GISS fixed the Y2K bug. http://web.archive.org/web/20060110100426/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C)
------------------------------------------------------
year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
---------------------------------
1880 -.41 .13
1881 .15 -.14
1882 -.04 -.34
1883 -.70 -.36
1884 -.73 -.44
1885 -.50 -.48
1886 -.25 -.39
1887 -.21 -.19
1888 -.28 -.05
1889 .28 -.04
1890 .23 -.10
1891 -.24 -.17
1892 -.47 -.21
1893 -.66 -.39
1894 .11 -.31
1895 -.69 -.24
1896 .17 -.14
1897 -.12 -.25
1898 -.17 .00
1899 -.43 -.02
1900 .54 -.01
1901 .07 -.11
1902 -.09 -.11
1903 -.65 -.31
1904 -.41 -.34
1905 -.47 -.37
1906 -.06 -.21
1907 -.22 -.18
1908 .11 -.02
1909 -.25 .01
1910 .31 -.12
1911 .11 -.17
1912 -.89 -.11
1913 -.13 -.21
1914 .03 -.33
1915 -.16 -.36
1916 -.51 -.32
1917 -1.00 -.36
1918 .02 -.42
1919 -.15 -.10
1920 -.45 .12
1921 1.08 .10
1922 .11 -.01
1923 -.09 .15
1924 -.70 -.05
1925 .38 -.04
1926 .04 -.01
1927 .16 .02
1928 .05 -.03
1929 -.54 .16
1930 .11 .12
1931 1.00 .24
1932 -.01 .60
1933 .66 .58
1934 1.24 .42
1935 .05 .40
1936 .18 .43
1937 -.12 .34
1938 .78 .34
1939 .80 .41
1940 .04 .45
1941 .54 .32
1942 .07 .18
1943 .16 .17
1944 .09 .20
1945 -.01 .20
1946 .67 .15
1947 .09 .17
1948 -.08 .13
1949 .18 -.08
1950 -.23 -.04
1951 -.38 .15
1952 .30 .28
1953 .88 .31
1954 .82 .44
1955 -.05 .41
1956 .28 .25
1957 .14 .12
1958 .07 .09
1959 .16 .03
1960 -.22 .00
1961 .00 .02
1962 -.02 -.03
1963 .19 .00
1964 -.08 -.05
1965 -.12 -.07
1966 -.24 -.16
1967 -.10 -.19
1968 -.27 -.19
1969 -.23 -.16
1970 -.12 -.22
1971 -.10 -.11
1972 -.36 -.04
1973 .25 -.05
1974 .15 -.08
1975 -.20 .07
1976 -.23 -.09
1977 .36 -.23
1978 -.51 -.15
1979 -.58 .03
1980 .22 -.12
1981 .65 -.01
1982 -.36 .10
1983 .01 -.02
1984 .01 -.01
1985 -.41 .23
1986 .73 .30
1987 .84 .26
1988 .33 .52
1989 -.17 .51
1990 .88 .41
1991 .69 .26
1992 .31 .38
1993 -.43 .28
1994 .47 .10
1995 .35 .05
1996 -.18 .38
1997 .05 .48
1998 1.24 .54
1999 .94 .55
2000 .65 .88
2001 .89 .76
2002 .67 .68
2003 .65 .75
2004 .54 *
2005 .99 *
------------------------------------------------------

here is the 14sep2007 version after Hansen fixed the Y2K bug. http://web.archive.org/web/20070914231348/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C)
------------------------------------------------------
year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
---------------------------------
1880 -.26 *
1881 .29 *
1882 .07 -.24
1883 -.68 -.30
1884 -.63 -.41
1885 -.54 -.46
1886 -.28 -.39
1887 -.17 -.21
1888 -.32 -.06
1889 .28 -.04
1890 .20 -.11
1891 -.20 -.19
1892 -.51 -.21
1893 -.72 -.38
1894 .17 -.30
1895 -.66 -.22
1896 .19 -.10
1897 -.08 -.22
1898 -.15 .03
1899 -.41 .00
1900 .57 -.01
1901 .05 -.11
1902 -.13 -.13
1903 -.65 -.34
1904 -.48 -.35
1905 -.47 -.37
1906 -.02 -.21
1907 -.24 -.17
1908 .14 -.02
1909 -.27 .02
1910 .28 -.11
1911 .17 -.15
1912 -.88 -.08
1913 -.03 -.16
1914 .09 -.29
1915 -.15 -.33
1916 -.50 -.31
1917 -1.06 -.35
1918 .06 -.40
1919 -.10 -.07
1920 -.41 .17
1921 1.15 .15
1922 .18 .02
1923 -.07 .17
1924 -.74 -.05
1925 .36 -.05
1926 .04 -.02
1927 .15 .01
1928 .07 -.03
1929 -.58 .18
1930 .16 .15
1931 1.08 .27
1932 .00 .63
1933 .68 .61
1934 1.25 .44
1935 .04 .41
1936 .21 .45
1937 -.13 .37
1938 .86 .36
1939 .85 .45
1940 .03 .49
1941 .61 .35
1942 .09 .21
1943 .17 .19
1944 .14 .22
1945 -.03 .22
1946 .72 .17
1947 .10 .18
1948 -.08 .13
1949 .20 -.10
1950 -.28 -.05
1951 -.42 .14
1952 .32 .27
1953 .90 .32
1954 .85 .47
1955 -.03 .43
1956 .29 .26
1957 .14 .13
1958 .06 .08
1959 .17 .02
1960 -.24 -.01
1961 -.02 .02
1962 -.02 -.03
1963 .19 -.01
1964 -.07 -.05
1965 -.11 -.07
1966 -.24 -.16
1967 -.10 -.19
1968 -.28 -.19
1969 -.23 -.16
1970 -.11 -.21
1971 -.10 -.11
1972 -.35 -.03
1973 .24 -.05
1974 .15 -.08
1975 -.20 .06
1976 -.25 -.09
1977 .37 -.24
1978 -.52 -.16
1979 -.60 .02
1980 .22 -.12
1981 .64 -.02
1982 -.36 .10
1983 -.01 -.03
1984 .00 -.01
1985 -.42 .22
1986 .73 .29
1987 .83 .25
1988 .32 .51
1989 -.19 .50
1990 .87 .40
1991 .69 .25
1992 .30 .38
1993 -.44 .27
1994 .46 .10
1995 .34 .05
1996 -.17 .38
1997 .03 .47
1998 1.23 .51
1999 .93 .69
2000 .52 .79
2001 .76 .65
2002 .53 .55
2003 .50 .58
2004 .44 .66
2005 .69 *
2006 1.13 *
---------------------------------

 

[IanC]

next came the upwards adustments that Hansen started making once the spotlight was off his figures again. 19oct2008. http://web.archive.org/web/20081019012342/http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C)
------------------------------------------------------
year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
---------------------------------
1880 -.24 *
1881 .29 *
1882 .07 -.25
1883 -.72 -.33
1884 -.62 -.47
1885 -.64 -.53
1886 -.42 -.47
1887 -.25 -.30
1888 -.42 -.15
1889 .23 -.12
1890 .10 -.19
1891 -.25 -.27
1892 -.62 -.29
1893 -.81 -.45
1894 .13 -.37
1895 -.69 -.27
1896 .15 -.14
1897 -.12 -.25
1898 -.17 -.01
1899 -.43 -.04
1900 .52 -.05
1901 .00 -.15
1902 -.18 -.17
1903 -.66 -.37
1904 -.52 -.38
1905 -.50 -.39
1906 -.03 -.23
1907 -.26 -.19
1908 .13 -.04
1909 -.30 .00
1910 .26 -.13
1911 .15 -.17
1912 -.90 -.09
1913 -.04 -.17
1914 .09 -.31
1915 -.16 -.34
1916 -.52 -.32
1917 -1.07 -.37
1918 .05 -.42
1919 -.13 -.09
1920 -.43 .16
1921 1.13 .13
1922 .16 .00
1923 -.09 .16
1924 -.76 -.07
1925 .34 -.07
1926 .02 -.04
1927 .14 -.01
1928 .06 -.05
1929 -.60 .17
1930 .15 .14
1931 1.08 .26
1932 -.01 .63
1933 .67 .60
1934 1.24 .42
1935 .03 .40
1936 .19 .44
1937 -.15 .35
1938 .85 .35
1939 .84 .44
1940 .02 .48
1941 .61 .34
1942 .08 .20
1943 .16 .18
1944 .12 .20
1945 -.05 .20
1946 .71 .15
1947 .09 .17
1948 -.09 .12
1949 .19 -.11
1950 -.29 -.06
1951 -.43 .14
1952 .31 .27
1953 .90 .32
1954 .84 .46
1955 -.04 .42
1956 .28 .25
1957 .13 .12
1958 .05 .08
1959 .17 .02
1960 -.24 -.01
1961 -.02 .01
1962 -.02 -.04
1963 .18 -.01
1964 -.08 -.05
1965 -.11 -.07
1966 -.24 -.16
1967 -.10 -.19
1968 -.28 -.19
1969 -.23 -.16
1970 -.11 -.21
1971 -.10 -.11
1972 -.35 -.03
1973 .25 -.05
1974 .16 -.08
1975 -.19 .07
1976 -.24 -.08
1977 .37 -.23
1978 -.51 -.15
1979 -.59 .03
1980 .22 -.12
1981 .65 -.01
1982 -.35 .11
1983 .00 -.02
1984 .01 .00
1985 -.41 .24
1986 .74 .30
1987 .84 .27
1988 .33 .52
1989 -.17 .52
1990 .88 .41
1991 .70 .26
1992 .31 .39
1993 -.43 .28
1994 .47 .11
1995 .36 .06
1996 -.16 .39
1997 .04 .48
1998 1.24 .52
1999 .94 .71
2000 .54 .81
2001 .78 .67
2002 .55 .57
2003 .53 .60
2004 .46 .68
2005 .71 .74
2006 1.15 *
2007 .84 *

and the up-to-date version which may change anytime. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.D.txt
Contiguous 48 U.S. Surface Air Temperature Anomaly (C)
------------------------------------------------------
year Annual_Mean 5-year_Mean
---------------------------------
1880 -0.4830 *
1881 0.0410 *
1882 -0.0300 -0.3920
1883 -0.8700 -0.4378
1884 -0.6180 -0.5644
1885 -0.7120 -0.6290
1886 -0.5920 -0.5808
1887 -0.3530 -0.4416
1888 -0.6290 -0.3056
1889 0.0780 -0.2656
1890 -0.0320 -0.3294
1891 -0.3920 -0.3472
1892 -0.6720 -0.3436
1893 -0.7180 -0.4744
1894 0.0960 -0.3608
1895 -0.6860 -0.2488
1896 0.1760 -0.1404
1897 -0.1120 -0.2394
1898 -0.1760 0.0116
1899 -0.3990 -0.0090
1900 0.5690 0.0040
1901 0.0730 -0.0776
1902 -0.0470 -0.0718
1903 -0.5840 -0.2726
1904 -0.3700 -0.2912
1905 -0.4350 -0.3188
1906 -0.0200 -0.1758
1907 -0.1850 -0.1478
1908 0.1310 0.0048
1909 -0.2300 0.0322
1910 0.3280 -0.1092
1911 0.1170 -0.1648
1912 -0.8920 -0.1186
1913 -0.1470 -0.2246
1914 0.0010 -0.3584
1915 -0.2020 -0.3830
1916 -0.5520 -0.3528
1917 -1.0150 -0.3860
1918 0.0040 -0.4354
1919 -0.1650 -0.1090
1920 -0.4490 0.1156
1921 1.0800 0.0918
1922 0.1080 -0.0184
1923 -0.1150 0.1396
1924 -0.7160 -0.0746
1925 0.3410 -0.0670
1926 0.0090 -0.0384
1927 0.1460 -0.0088
1928 0.0280 -0.0614
1929 -0.5680 0.1298
1930 0.0780 0.0888
1931 0.9650 0.2084
1932 -0.0590 0.5610
1933 0.6260 0.5464
1934 1.1950 0.3802
1935 0.0050 0.3592
1936 0.1340 0.3840
1937 -0.1640 0.2996
1938 0.7500 0.2992
1939 0.7730 0.3710
1940 0.0030 0.4052
1941 0.4930 0.2782
1942 0.0070 0.1288
1943 0.1150 0.1162
1944 0.0260 0.1424
1945 -0.0600 0.1496
1946 0.6240 0.1062
1947 0.0430 0.1326
1948 -0.1020 0.0970
1949 0.1580 -0.1068
1950 -0.2380 -0.0612
1951 -0.3950 0.1310
1952 0.2710 0.2616
1953 0.8590 0.2970
1954 0.8110 0.4276
1955 -0.0610 0.3982
1956 0.2580 0.2364
1957 0.1240 0.1026
1958 0.0500 0.0688
1959 0.1420 0.0152
1960 -0.2300 -0.0128
1961 -0.0100 0.0136
1962 -0.0160 -0.0364
1963 0.1820 -0.0158
1964 -0.1080 -0.0592
1965 -0.1270 -0.0732
1966 -0.2270 -0.1692
1967 -0.0860 -0.1882
1968 -0.2980 -0.1896
1969 -0.2030 -0.1652
1970 -0.1340 -0.2098
1971 -0.1050 -0.1022
1972 -0.3090 -0.0226
1973 0.2400 -0.0342
1974 0.1950 -0.0618
1975 -0.1920 0.0750
1976 -0.2430 -0.0672
1977 0.3750 -0.2160
1978 -0.4710 -0.1264
1979 -0.5490 0.0564
1980 0.2560 -0.0808
1981 0.6710 0.0140
1982 -0.3110 0.1332
1983 0.0030 0.0102
1984 0.0470 0.0282
1985 -0.3590 0.2518
1986 0.7610 0.3278
1987 0.8070 0.3026
1988 0.3830 0.5580
1989 -0.0790 0.5478
1990 0.9180 0.4594
1991 0.7100 0.3118
1992 0.3650 0.4380
1993 -0.3550 0.3404
1994 0.5520 0.1870
1995 0.4300 0.1430
1996 -0.0570 0.4776
1997 0.1450 0.5808
1998 1.3180 0.6332
1999 1.0680 0.8286
2000 0.6920 0.9340
2001 0.9200 0.8072
2002 0.6720 0.7144
2003 0.6840 0.7586
2004 0.6040 0.8330
2005 0.9130 0.8718
2006 1.2920 0.7522
2007 0.8660 0.6552
2008 0.0860 0.5728
2009 0.1190 *
2010 0.5010

so obviously the data sets were not exactly the same, and they changed in the directions I stated. remember, these are only changes since 2006. the changes from pre-1999 data are even more drastic. anyone who thinks the sheer number and magnitude of these changes wouldnt make any difference is fooling themselves

 

[IanC]

the second clarification needed has to do with this article.The Reference Frame: RSS AMSU: all cooling and warming trends through May 2011
and these trends since 01jan2001, the beginning of the new millenium.

In the table, you find not only the trends of the global temperature but also the trends of the regional temperatures observed by RSS AMSU, a satellite team. Apologies that I picked RSS - Roy Spencer et al. are doing a great job but I just want to avoid possible accusations that I have picked the skeptics and the most cooling dataset etc.

Let me just select two lines among the nearly 400 lines that the table offers you. The warming or cooling trends between January 1979 and May 2011 have been

•+1.43 °C / century: globally
•+1.32 °C / century: tropics
•+2.23 °C / century: North extratropics
•+0.69 °C / century: South extratropics
•+3.40 °C / century: Arctic
•-0.19 °C / century: Antarctica
•+1.63 °C / century: contin. USA
•+1.90 °C / century: North Hemisphere
•+0.93 °C / century: South Hemisphere
You see it's been mostly warming in the 31+-year period. However, let's write the same numbers with January 2001 - the beginning of the new century - as the initial month. Note that we're not trying to include the El Nino year 1998: instead, we just pick the most natural beginning of the centtury. It's been more than 10 years and the linear regression in this period gives us:

•-0.40 °C / century: globally
•-1.16 °C / century: tropics
•+0.22 °C / century: North extratropics
•-0.19 °C / century: South extratropics
•+3.83 °C / century: Arctic
•-1.27 °C / century: Antarctica
•-4.84 °C / century: contin. USA
•-0.23 °C / century: North Hemisphere
•-0.58 °C / century: South Hemisphere
These are decidedly different numbers! The globe has been slightly cooling since January 2001 although the trend has been less than half a degree per century. The tropics saw more than one degree of cooling per century. The Arctic has seen a significant continued warming by four degrees per century, the Antarctica experienced a cooling by a degree per century.

The biggest figure (when it comes to the absolute value) that you may see anywhere in the tables above is the trend since 2001 in the United States of America. The U.S. has been cooling by nearly 5 Celsius degrees per century since 2001. The global trend stays negative if you pick any month of 2001, 2002, or 2003 (except for December 2003) as the initial month. Quite generally, negative and positive trends are pretty much equally represented in the recent part of the table.

Obviously, you can't or you shouldn't extrapolate any of the figures. The shorter periods we investigate, the bigger trends we typically obtain. For example, the global cooling trend since May 2010 has been cooling by sixty degrees Celsius. ;-) But even when you look at the 31+-year trends, they show a huge variability. The "same" portions of the Northern and Southern Hemisphere display very different warming or cooling trends which imply that the (inevitable) changes are not "global" in any nontrivial sense.

edthecynic accused Lubos of using the mid trophospheric data instead of the lower trophospheric even though Lubos' code specifically said it wasnt. here is an image directly from the RSS website describing the trends of both.

as anyone can see, the trend for the lower trophospheric is 0.143K/decade and 0.086K/decade for the mid.

does anyone doubt that the 1.43C/century in Lubos' article is not from the same data? except for edthecynic of course.

 

[IanC]

year month -70
+82.5
-20
+20.0
+20.0
+82.5
-70
-20.0
+60.0
+82.5
-70
-60.0
Cont.
USA
0.0
+82.5
-70
0.0
1979 1 1.43 1.32 2.23 0.69 3.4 -0.19 1.63 1.9 0.93
1979 2 1.42 1.31 2.22 0.7 3.41 -0.2 1.48 1.89 0.93
1979 3 1.43 1.32 2.22 0.69 3.33 -0.22 1.39 1.9 0.93
1979 4 1.43 1.32 2.23 0.69 3.33 -0.23 1.39 1.9 0.93
1979 5 1.42 1.32 2.22 0.68 3.31 -0.24 1.36 1.9 0.92
1979 6 1.42 1.32 2.21 0.68 3.31 -0.24 1.32 1.89 0.92
1979 7 1.41 1.32 2.21 0.67 3.3 -0.28 1.3 1.89 0.92
1979 8 1.42 1.32 2.21 0.67 3.31 -0.31 1.3 1.89 0.92
1979 9 1.42 1.33 2.21 0.66 3.32 -0.33 1.27 1.9 0.91
1979 10 1.42 1.33 2.22 0.67 3.34 -0.34 1.32 1.9 0.92
1979 11 1.43 1.35 2.23 0.68 3.35 -0.31 1.34 1.92 0.93
1979 12 1.44 1.37 2.25 0.67 3.36 -0.33 1.32 1.93 0.93
1980 1 1.45 1.37 2.27 0.67 3.36 -0.31 1.41 1.95 0.93
1980 2 1.46 1.38 2.28 0.67 3.41 -0.29 1.38 1.96 0.94
1980 3 1.47 1.4 2.29 0.68 3.51 -0.27 1.35 1.97 0.95
1980 4 1.48 1.41 2.29 0.68 3.53 -0.24 1.3 1.98 0.95
1980 5 1.49 1.42 2.29 0.69 3.53 -0.2 1.3 1.98 0.96
1980 6 1.5 1.44 2.31 0.7 3.55 -0.2 1.3 2. 0.97
1980 7 1.51 1.46 2.32 0.7 3.57 -0.22 1.29 2.01 0.98
1980 8 1.52 1.47 2.34 0.7 3.57 -0.19 1.35 2.03 0.99
1980 9 1.53 1.47 2.34 0.71 3.61 -0.18 1.35 2.03 1.
1980 10 1.54 1.48 2.35 0.73 3.63 -0.15 1.37 2.04 1.01
1980 11 1.55 1.49 2.37 0.73 3.69 -0.18 1.37 2.06 1.01
1980 12 1.54 1.48 2.38 0.73 3.68 -0.15 1.4 2.06 1.
1981 1 1.55 1.48 2.39 0.73 3.7 -0.17 1.45 2.07 1.
1981 2 1.57 1.48 2.43 0.74 3.86 -0.16 1.51 2.09 1.02
1981 3 1.58 1.48 2.45 0.78 3.9 -0.13 1.55 2.11 1.04
1981 4 1.59 1.47 2.46 0.79 3.91 -0.09 1.48 2.11 1.04
1981 5 1.6 1.48 2.51 0.78 3.97 -0.08 1.62 2.15 1.04
1981 6 1.61 1.48 2.52 0.79 4.02 -0.07 1.59 2.16 1.04
1981 7 1.62 1.48 2.54 0.78 4.05 -0.07 1.62 2.17 1.04
1981 8 1.62 1.48 2.56 0.79 4.05 -0.05 1.64 2.18 1.04
1981 9 1.63 1.48 2.58 0.79 4.11 -0.01 1.65 2.2 1.04
1981 10 1.63 1.48 2.59 0.79 4.14 0.01 1.66 2.2 1.04
1981 11 1.64 1.48 2.6 0.78 4.2 0 1.63 2.21 1.03
1981 12 1.64 1.49 2.62 0.78 4.27 -0.01 1.7 2.22 1.04
1982 1 1.66 1.49 2.64 0.79 4.31 -0.02 1.69 2.24 1.05
1982 2 1.66 1.49 2.64 0.8 4.27 -0.01 1.61 2.24 1.05
1982 3 1.66 1.49 2.64 0.81 4.34 -0.03 1.59 2.24 1.05
1982 4 1.66 1.49 2.63 0.81 4.34 -0.04 1.57 2.23 1.06
1982 5 1.66 1.48 2.64 0.82 4.35 -0.06 1.5 2.24 1.06
1982 6 1.65 1.48 2.63 0.81 4.3 -0.03 1.5 2.23 1.05
1982 7 1.65 1.48 2.62 0.82 4.29 0 1.43 2.22 1.05
1982 8 1.64 1.48 2.61 0.79 4.3 -0.02 1.42 2.22 1.04
1982 9 1.63 1.47 2.6 0.79 4.3 -0.07 1.41 2.21 1.03
1982 10 1.64 1.47 2.6 0.79 4.29 -0.1 1.4 2.21 1.03
1982 11 1.63 1.46 2.59 0.79 4.27 -0.08 1.39 2.2 1.03
1982 12 1.62 1.46 2.57 0.79 4.24 -0.05 1.36 2.19 1.03
1983 1 1.63 1.48 2.58 0.78 4.28 -0.02 1.42 2.2 1.03
1983 2 1.65 1.52 2.61 0.77 4.31 0.02 1.49 2.23 1.04
1983 3 1.66 1.56 2.6 0.76 4.35 0.04 1.52 2.24 1.05
1983 4 1.68 1.6 2.61 0.78 4.39 0.04 1.51 2.26 1.08
1983 5 1.7 1.63 2.62 0.79 4.41 0.04 1.35 2.27 1.1
1983 6 1.72 1.67 2.62 0.81 4.39 0.08 1.26 2.28 1.12
1983 7 1.72 1.69 2.6 0.81 4.41 0.12 1.2 2.28 1.13
1983 8 1.74 1.72 2.61 0.82 4.43 0.09 1.22 2.3 1.15
1983 9 1.75 1.74 2.63 0.83 4.45 0.08 1.3 2.32 1.16
1983 10 1.76 1.75 2.64 0.83 4.49 0.13 1.3 2.33 1.17
1983 11 1.77 1.76 2.65 0.84 4.49 0.12 1.32 2.33 1.18
1983 12 1.78 1.76 2.68 0.85 4.55 0.09 1.32 2.36 1.18
1984 1 1.78 1.75 2.68 0.84 4.6 0.06 1.15 2.36 1.17
1984 2 1.77 1.73 2.69 0.83 4.62 0.09 1.13 2.35 1.16
1984 3 1.77 1.72 2.68 0.84 4.63 0.11 1.18 2.34 1.16
1984 4 1.77 1.73 2.66 0.85 4.64 0.14 1.11 2.34 1.17
1984 5 1.76 1.72 2.65 0.84 4.59 0.14 1.06 2.33 1.16
1984 6 1.76 1.71 2.66 0.85 4.64 0.23 1.03 2.33 1.16
1984 7 1.75 1.7 2.67 0.84 4.69 0.18 0.99 2.33 1.15
1984 8 1.75 1.67 2.67 0.84 4.73 0.13 0.97 2.32 1.15
1984 9 1.75 1.67 2.68 0.84 4.75 0.18 0.98 2.32 1.14
1984 10 1.72 1.64 2.66 0.81 4.79 0.18 0.87 2.3 1.12
1984 11 1.72 1.63 2.65 0.82 4.84 0.18 0.8 2.29 1.12
1984 12 1.71 1.61 2.63 0.82 4.83 0.16 0.75 2.27 1.12
1985 1 1.69 1.6 2.58 0.82 4.82 0.21 0.78 2.24 1.11
1985 2 1.68 1.59 2.57 0.82 4.88 0.22 0.66 2.22 1.11
1985 3 1.66 1.58 2.56 0.81 4.84 0.2 0.53 2.21 1.09
1985 4 1.65 1.56 2.53 0.81 4.78 0.17 0.54 2.18 1.09
1985 5 1.63 1.52 2.52 0.81 4.69 0.18 0.6 2.16 1.08
1985 6 1.61 1.49 2.51 0.79 4.71 0.12 0.65 2.15 1.06
1985 7 1.59 1.46 2.49 0.79 4.72 0.15 0.61 2.12 1.04
1985 8 1.57 1.41 2.46 0.8 4.7 0.17 0.6 2.09 1.04
1985 9 1.56 1.39 2.45 0.81 4.7 0.16 0.53 2.07 1.03
1985 10 1.55 1.36 2.44 0.82 4.74 0.15 0.45 2.06 1.03
1985 11 1.54 1.34 2.42 0.8 4.76 0.17 0.45 2.04 1.01
1985 12 1.53 1.33 2.42 0.81 4.86 0.16 0.39 2.03 1.01
1986 1 1.52 1.31 2.42 0.81 4.98 0.12 0.28 2.02 1.
1986 2 1.52 1.3 2.43 0.81 4.99 0.1 0.38 2.03 1.
1986 3 1.51 1.28 2.41 0.81 5.09 0.16 0.41 2.01 0.99
1986 4 1.5 1.25 2.42 0.8 5.05 0.18 0.52 2. 0.97
1986 5 1.5 1.24 2.42 0.81 5.04 0.19 0.57 2. 0.97
1986 6 1.49 1.22 2.43 0.81 5.04 0.2 0.58 2. 0.97
1986 7 1.49 1.21 2.42 0.8 5.07 0.19 0.64 1.99 0.95
1986 8 1.47 1.18 2.41 0.8 5.07 0.21 0.61 1.97 0.95
1986 9 1.46 1.17 2.38 0.8 5.04 0.25 0.55 1.96 0.94
1986 10 1.45 1.15 2.36 0.8 5.02 0.27 0.44 1.94 0.93
1986 11 1.43 1.14 2.34 0.78 5.03 0.28 0.4 1.92 0.92
1986 12 1.42 1.14 2.32 0.79 5.07 0.29 0.38 1.9 0.92
1987 1 1.42 1.15 2.3 0.8 5.06 0.27 0.39 1.9 0.93
1987 2 1.44 1.17 2.32 0.8 5.06 0.26 0.4 1.92 0.93
1987 3 1.45 1.18 2.33 0.81 4.99 0.3 0.45 1.93 0.95
1987 4 1.44 1.19 2.31 0.8 4.97 0.31 0.45 1.92 0.94
1987 5 1.45 1.22 2.3 0.83 4.94 0.28 0.53 1.91 0.97
1987 6 1.46 1.22 2.28 0.84 4.92 0.26 0.6 1.9 0.99
1987 7 1.47 1.25 2.26 0.86 4.9 0.25 0.66 1.9 1.01
1987 8 1.48 1.29 2.25 0.86 4.89 0.24 0.63 1.91 1.02
1987 9 1.48 1.33 2.23 0.85 4.88 0.21 0.58 1.91 1.03
1987 10 1.48 1.36 2.22 0.83 4.84 0.12 0.54 1.92 1.02
1987 11 1.5 1.41 2.22 0.83 4.92 0.13 0.51 1.94 1.04
1987 12 1.52 1.47 2.21 0.84 4.87 0.17 0.6 1.95 1.07
1988 1 1.55 1.53 2.23 0.85 4.85 0.18 0.63 1.99 1.1
1988 2 1.58 1.57 2.25 0.87 4.85 0.22 0.52 2.01 1.12
1988 3 1.57 1.59 2.22 0.87 4.89 0.16 0.39 2. 1.13
1988 4 1.6 1.64 2.22 0.88 4.93 0.18 0.32 2.02 1.15
1988 5 1.61 1.65 2.22 0.9 4.87 0.2 0.34 2.02 1.17
1988 6 1.62 1.68 2.24 0.89 4.92 0.19 0.36 2.05 1.17
1988 7 1.63 1.67 2.27 0.9 4.98 0.17 0.48 2.07 1.17
1988 8 1.65 1.68 2.31 0.92 5.05 0.17 0.51 2.09 1.19
1988 9 1.66 1.69 2.34 0.9 5.08 0.16 0.58 2.11 1.18
1988 10 1.68 1.7 2.37 0.93 5.14 0.21 0.63 2.14 1.21
1988 11 1.68 1.69 2.38 0.93 5.18 0.21 0.6 2.14 1.2
1988 12 1.68 1.67 2.37 0.94 5.16 0.14 0.6 2.13 1.2
1989 1 1.66 1.61 2.37 0.96 5.22 0.14 0.55 2.11 1.19
1989 2 1.64 1.56 2.35 0.95 5.07 0.09 0.65 2.08 1.17
1989 3 1.62 1.5 2.36 0.96 5.12 0.07 0.49 2.06 1.16
1989 4 1.59 1.43 2.37 0.95 5.12 0.01 0.55 2.04 1.13
1989 5 1.58 1.38 2.38 0.95 5.18 -0.05 0.59 2.03 1.11
1989 6 1.57 1.33 2.39 0.96 5.17 -0.12 0.58 2.02 1.1
1989 7 1.55 1.28 2.38 0.97 5.19 -0.15 0.56 2. 1.08
1989 8 1.55 1.25 2.39 0.98 5.21 -0.14 0.58 2. 1.07
1989 9 1.54 1.22 2.39 0.97 5.24 -0.12 0.5 1.99 1.06
1989 10 1.54 1.2 2.41 0.98 5.26 -0.07 0.49 1.99 1.06
1989 11 1.53 1.18 2.42 0.99 5.25 -0.05 0.48 1.99 1.05
1989 12 1.53 1.18 2.38 1.01 5.19 -0.08 0.47 1.97 1.07
1990 1 1.52 1.15 2.38 1.04 5.26 -0.02 0.21 1.96 1.07
1990 2 1.51 1.13 2.35 1.06 5.18 0.05 0.37 1.93 1.08
1990 3 1.5 1.1 2.35 1.04 5.05 0 0.4 1.92 1.06
1990 4 1.52 1.07 2.44 1.05 5.18 -0.06 0.51 1.96 1.06
1990 5 1.53 1.07 2.45 1.06 5.29 -0.03 0.56 1.97 1.06
1990 6 1.53 1.06 2.47 1.07 5.35 -0.01 0.44 1.98 1.06
1990 7 1.55 1.06 2.5 1.09 5.4 -0.08 0.49 2. 1.07
1990 8 1.54 1.04 2.5 1.1 5.45 0.06 0.45 2. 1.07
1990 9 1.54 1.03 2.5 1.11 5.46 0 0.4 2. 1.07
1990 10 1.54 1.02 2.48 1.12 5.4 -0.05 0.49 1.99 1.07
1990 11 1.55 1.02 2.5 1.14 5.35 -0.08 0.49 2. 1.08
1990 12 1.59 1.04 2.55 1.19 5.23 -0.03 0.67 2.04 1.12
1991 1 1.61 1.05 2.58 1.22 5.18 0.03 0.6 2.06 1.14
1991 2 1.62 1.07 2.58 1.24 5.17 -0.01 0.51 2.07 1.16
1991 3 1.63 1.09 2.57 1.25 5.15 -0.02 0.73 2.07 1.17
1991 4 1.66 1.1 2.61 1.29 5.17 0 0.71 2.11 1.2
1991 5 1.67 1.09 2.64 1.29 5.2 0.02 0.75 2.13 1.19
1991 6 1.69 1.11 2.68 1.3 5.29 0.02 0.83 2.16 1.2
1991 7 1.73 1.14 2.71 1.35 5.35 0.12 0.8 2.19 1.24
1991 8 1.75 1.15 2.74 1.37 5.44 0.2 0.77 2.21 1.26
1991 9 1.77 1.15 2.78 1.39 5.5 0.27 0.8 2.24 1.27
1991 10 1.77 1.15 2.79 1.38 5.57 0.22 0.78 2.25 1.26
1991 11 1.76 1.11 2.82 1.37 5.6 0.26 0.8 2.25 1.25
1991 12 1.75 1.08 2.84 1.34 5.66 0.22 0.71 2.26 1.21
1992 1 1.72 1.06 2.82 1.3 5.64 0.29 0.83 2.24 1.18
1992 2 1.72 1.04 2.84 1.29 5.72 0.35 0.95 2.24 1.17
1992 3 1.7 1.04 2.83 1.25 5.73 0.38 1.12 2.23 1.15
1992 4 1.7 1.05 2.8 1.25 5.76 0.42 1.15 2.22 1.15
1992 5 1.67 1.06 2.74 1.22 5.64 0.43 1.26 2.18 1.13
1992 6 1.64 1.05 2.67 1.21 5.49 0.5 1.33 2.13 1.13
1992 7 1.61 1.05 2.59 1.21 5.39 0.58 1.26 2.08 1.12
1992 8 1.56 1.01 2.49 1.2 5.26 0.57 1.06 2. 1.1
1992 9 1.5 0.97 2.4 1.15 5.15 0.57 0.85 1.93 1.06
1992 10 1.45 0.93 2.32 1.13 5.02 0.49 0.82 1.86 1.02
1992 11 1.42 0.89 2.25 1.13 4.92 0.43 0.81 1.81 1.01
1992 12 1.39 0.84 2.22 1.13 4.82 0.48 0.67 1.77 0.99
1993 1 1.35 0.79 2.18 1.09 4.78 0.51 0.59 1.73 0.95
1993 2 1.31 0.74 2.15 1.04 4.71 0.59 0.59 1.69 0.9
1993 3 1.27 0.67 2.15 1.02 4.83 0.61 0.37 1.66 0.86
1993 4 1.21 0.6 2.1 0.96 4.8 0.58 0.27 1.61 0.79
1993 5 1.17 0.57 2.01 0.94 4.76 0.59 0.12 1.54 0.77
1993 6 1.13 0.55 1.95 0.93 4.82 0.59 0.08 1.49 0.76
1993 7 1.11 0.54 1.89 0.94 4.81 0.6 -0.08 1.45 0.76
1993 8 1.1 0.54 1.84 0.94 4.83 0.57 -0.25 1.41 0.76
1993 9 1.05 0.5 1.77 0.92 4.77 0.61 -0.36 1.36 0.73
1993 10 0.99 0.45 1.65 0.9 4.58 0.63 -0.56 1.26 0.71
1993 11 0.97 0.45 1.57 0.91 4.5 0.67 -0.71 1.21 0.71
1993 12 0.93 0.47 1.46 0.9 4.39 0.71 -0.88 1.14 0.71
1994 1 0.93 0.5 1.42 0.89 4.24 0.62 -0.93 1.13 0.71
1994 2 0.9 0.49 1.37 0.87 4.07 0.52 -1.09 1.1 0.7
1994 3 0.87 0.48 1.29 0.87 3.98 0.48 -1.32 1.04 0.69
1994 4 0.84 0.43 1.28 0.83 3.91 0.47 -1.26 1.02 0.65
1994 5 0.8 0.4 1.25 0.78 3.92 0.38 -1.19 0.98 0.6
1994 6 0.77 0.37 1.24 0.73 3.9 0.32 -1.21 0.98 0.56
1994 7 0.76 0.33 1.24 0.73 3.8 0.38 -1.12 0.96 0.54
1994 8 0.74 0.31 1.23 0.71 3.82 0.36 -1.2 0.95 0.52
1994 9 0.72 0.27 1.21 0.72 3.82 0.27 -1.27 0.92 0.52
1994 10 0.71 0.26 1.21 0.71 3.78 0.38 -1.28 0.91 0.51
1994 11 0.67 0.21 1.21 0.62 3.78 0.37 -1.3 0.9 0.43
1994 12 0.66 0.2 1.24 0.58 3.66 0.42 -1.31 0.91 0.41
1995 1 0.65 0.22 1.21 0.56 3.64 0.35 -1.09 0.9 0.4
1995 2 0.65 0.22 1.24 0.52 3.75 0.22 -1. 0.92 0.37
1995 3 0.65 0.2 1.28 0.47 3.9 0.17 -0.94 0.94 0.34
1995 4 0.62 0.19 1.25 0.44 3.82 0.16 -0.85 0.92 0.31
1995 5 0.63 0.2 1.28 0.44 4.13 0.24 -1.06 0.94 0.31
1995 6 0.62 0.19 1.27 0.42 4.24 0.14 -1.3 0.94 0.29
1995 7 0.62 0.22 1.28 0.37 4.29 0.11 -1.44 0.96 0.27
1995 8 0.59 0.23 1.24 0.3 4.21 0.14 -1.52 0.93 0.23
1995 9 0.61 0.26 1.28 0.29 4.31 0.15 -1.31 0.96 0.24
1995 10 0.64 0.29 1.32 0.32 4.42 0.07 -1.39 0.99 0.27
1995 11 0.64 0.29 1.3 0.34 4.29 0.15 -1.4 0.98 0.29
1995 12 0.65 0.27 1.37 0.32 4.51 0.11 -1.51 1.02 0.26
1996 1 0.6 0.21 1.25 0.35 4.43 0.14 -1.63 0.93 0.26
1996 2 0.55 0.14 1.2 0.33 4.56 0.08 -1.81 0.88 0.21
1996 3 0.53 0.1 1.19 0.33 4.61 0.11 -1.77 0.86 0.19
1996 4 0.51 0.08 1.16 0.32 4.89 0.14 -2.11 0.83 0.18
1996 5 0.45 0.02 1.02 0.33 4.89 0.18 -2.25 0.72 0.17
1996 6 0.41 -0.02 0.96 0.3 4.79 0.02 -2.34 0.67 0.13
1996 7 0.35 -0.07 0.9 0.25 4.67 0.06 -2.28 0.62 0.08
1996 8 0.33 -0.08 0.85 0.25 4.55 0.21 -2.37 0.58 0.07
1996 9 0.29 -0.13 0.76 0.27 4.35 0.49 -2.42 0.5 0.07
1996 10 0.28 -0.13 0.66 0.35 4.3 0.78 -2.72 0.44 0.12
1996 11 0.26 -0.16 0.57 0.4 4.21 0.88 -2.8 0.37 0.14
1996 12 0.22 -0.22 0.56 0.36 4.42 1. -3.08 0.34 0.09
1997 1 0.15 -0.3 0.49 0.32 4.39 0.96 -3.27 0.26 0.04
1997 2 0.09 -0.42 0.38 0.34 4.25 0.91 -3.43 0.15 0.01
1997 3 0.04 -0.53 0.34 0.36 4.13 0.93 -3.47 0.09 -0.02
1997 4 -0.02 -0.64 0.31 0.32 4.23 1.02 -3.41 0.03 -0.09
1997 5 -0.1 -0.78 0.28 0.27 4.56 1. -3.94 -0.04 -0.17
1997 6 -0.16 -0.88 0.18 0.28 4.5 1.02 -4.23 -0.13 -0.2
1997 7 -0.23 -0.94 0.09 0.24 4.47 1.17 -4.38 -0.2 -0.26
1997 8 -0.26 -0.89 0 0.19 4.38 1.09 -4.54 -0.24 -0.28
1997 9 -0.28 -0.85 -0.04 0.14 4.38 1.04 -4.75 -0.25 -0.3
1997 10 -0.3 -0.79 -0.09 0.04 4.51 0.84 -4.66 -0.26 -0.34
1997 11 -0.32 -0.75 -0.13 -0.01 4.6 0.81 -4.86 -0.28 -0.36
1997 12 -0.35 -0.7 -0.23 -0.08 4.58 0.94 -5.24 -0.33 -0.37
1998 1 -0.34 -0.56 -0.32 -0.11 4.43 0.92 -5.46 -0.35 -0.34
1998 2 -0.27 -0.31 -0.4 -0.07 4.35 0.92 -5.32 -0.31 -0.23
1998 3 -0.13 0 -0.36 -0.04 4. 1.05 -5.22 -0.16 -0.1
1998 4 -0.04 0.26 -0.37 -0.03 3.98 0.96 -5.53 -0.08 0
1998 5 0.14 0.55 -0.23 0.06 4.01 1.02 -5.82 0.11 0.17
1998 6 0.27 0.79 -0.17 0.13 4.04 1.23 -5.64 0.23 0.3
1998 7 0.37 0.94 -0.07 0.18 4.23 1.32 -5.94 0.34 0.4
1998 8 0.49 1.06 0.08 0.26 4.51 1.16 -5.88 0.48 0.49
1998 9 0.6 1.18 0.19 0.38 4.68 1.18 -5.81 0.58 0.61
1998 10 0.69 1.26 0.31 0.45 4.68 1.21 -5.45 0.69 0.69
1998 11 0.78 1.35 0.39 0.53 4.57 1.13 -5.41 0.77 0.78
1998 12 0.78 1.38 0.32 0.58 4.62 1.14 -5.3 0.74 0.82
1999 1 0.82 1.38 0.34 0.7 4.63 1.14 -5.3 0.75 0.89
1999 2 0.82 1.34 0.37 0.7 4.3 0.75 -5.16 0.76 0.88
1999 3 0.86 1.28 0.48 0.79 4.24 0.77 -4.76 0.81 0.92
1999 4 0.8 1.23 0.36 0.78 4.01 0.78 -4.81 0.71 0.89
1999 5 0.79 1.14 0.47 0.74 3.98 0.66 -4.84 0.75 0.84
1999 6 0.77 1.02 0.51 0.75 4. 0.48 -5. 0.74 0.8
1999 7 0.67 0.89 0.52 0.57 4.03 0.41 -5.29 0.7 0.64
1999 8 0.63 0.8 0.53 0.55 3.94 0.32 -5.28 0.67 0.59
1999 9 0.57 0.7 0.49 0.51 3.77 0.34 -5.33 0.6 0.54
1999 10 0.55 0.6 0.56 0.49 3.89 0.35 -5.63 0.61 0.49
1999 11 0.5 0.49 0.51 0.5 3.77 0.41 -5.64 0.54 0.46
1999 12 0.44 0.38 0.53 0.41 3.76 0.37 -4.92 0.51 0.36
2000 1 0.4 0.25 0.59 0.38 3.66 0.18 -4.75 0.5 0.3
2000 2 0.29 0.12 0.47 0.3 3.41 -0.16 -4.67 0.37 0.21
2000 3 0.25 -0.05 0.51 0.3 3.67 -0.3 -4.05 0.34 0.15
2000 4 0.21 -0.23 0.56 0.34 3.84 -0.49 -3.53 0.3 0.11
2000 5 0.22 -0.36 0.73 0.33 4.07 -0.78 -3.36 0.37 0.06
2000 6 0.19 -0.48 0.78 0.34 3.99 -0.88 -2.88 0.37 0.02
2000 7 0.14 -0.64 0.8 0.34 3.88 -0.81 -2.95 0.32 -0.04
2000 8 0.06 -0.79 0.77 0.29 3.89 -0.73 -3.03 0.25 -0.13
2000 9 -0.04 -0.9 0.75 0.11 3.86 -0.84 -2.89 0.2 -0.29
2000 10 -0.1 -1.02 0.75 0.04 3.68 -0.69 -2.84 0.16 -0.37
2000 11 -0.17 -1.07 0.62 0.02 3.74 -0.89 -2.96 0.05 -0.4
2000 12 -0.28 -1.1 0.45 -0.12 3.85 -0.99 -3.84 -0.07 -0.49
2001 1 -0.4 -1.16 0.22 -0.19 3.83 -1.27 -4.84 -0.23 -0.58

 

[IanC]

and the rest of the trends

2001 1 -0.4 -1.16 0.22 -0.19 3.83 -1.27 -4.84 -0.23 -0.58
2001 2 -0.49 -1.32 0.16 -0.22 3.78 -1.37 -4.79 -0.32 -0.66
2001 3 -0.56 -1.43 -0.1 -0.06 3.18 -1.43 -5.18 -0.52 -0.6
2001 4 -0.62 -1.61 -0.05 -0.09 2.85 -1.51 -5.73 -0.55 -0.68
2001 5 -0.59 -1.67 0.01 0.02 2.68 -1.58 -5.66 -0.54 -0.64
2001 6 -0.58 -1.77 0.17 -0.02 2.73 -1.45 -5.56 -0.46 -0.7
2001 7 -0.67 -1.96 0.15 -0.07 2.78 -1.67 -5.79 -0.55 -0.8
2001 8 -0.73 -2.05 0.15 -0.16 2.75 -1.65 -5.82 -0.58 -0.89
2001 9 -0.66 -2.05 0.27 -0.07 2.91 -1.61 -5.54 -0.49 -0.84
2001 10 -0.71 -2.17 0.27 -0.08 3.04 -1.85 -5.59 -0.54 -0.88
2001 11 -0.69 -2.19 0.21 0.06 2.77 -1.75 -5.88 -0.58 -0.81
2001 12 -0.67 -2.2 0.26 0.07 2.83 -1.93 -5.01 -0.55 -0.8
2002 1 -0.68 -2.22 0.14 0.21 3.19 -2.03 -5.04 -0.63 -0.73
2002 2 -0.64 -2.29 0.28 0.26 2.9 -2.21 -4.65 -0.57 -0.72
2002 3 -0.55 -2.32 0.43 0.43 1.85 -2.03 -4.52 -0.47 -0.62
2002 4 -0.52 -2.36 0.59 0.41 2.08 -1.65 -5.4 -0.38 -0.66
2002 5 -0.46 -2.43 0.62 0.63 1.73 -1.39 -5.03 -0.39 -0.53
2002 6 -0.43 -2.39 0.61 0.68 1.85 -1.03 -5.64 -0.38 -0.49
2002 7 -0.36 -2.4 0.65 0.91 1.94 -0.65 -5.21 -0.37 -0.34
2002 8 -0.29 -2.28 0.72 0.9 1.67 -0.66 -4.62 -0.27 -0.31
2002 9 -0.27 -2.27 0.56 1.13 1.45 -0.37 -4.77 -0.37 -0.16
2002 10 -0.25 -2.3 0.55 1.22 1.25 -0.16 -4.7 -0.38 -0.12
2002 11 -0.35 -2.32 0.18 1.32 1.48 0.06 -6.09 -0.65 -0.04
2002 12 -0.35 -2.28 0.14 1.31 1.98 -0.11 -6.71 -0.67 -0.03
2003 1 -0.4 -2.14 -0.26 1.45 2.26 0.11 -7.06 -0.9 0.12
2003 2 -0.27 -1.98 -0.1 1.49 2.4 0.5 -6.7 -0.73 0.21
2003 3 -0.23 -1.74 -0.35 1.62 2.06 0.64 -7.61 -0.8 0.36
2003 4 -0.25 -1.69 -0.55 1.71 1.97 0.71 -7.78 -0.9 0.43
2003 5 -0.23 -1.66 -0.54 1.74 2.12 0.95 -7.79 -0.88 0.45
2003 6 -0.16 -1.63 -0.44 1.82 2.07 0.42 -7.98 -0.78 0.49
2003 7 -0.25 -1.8 -0.52 1.8 1.86 0.03 -8.59 -0.91 0.43
2003 8 -0.24 -1.77 -0.62 1.93 1.89 -0.28 -8.37 -0.98 0.54
2003 9 -0.22 -1.77 -0.58 1.92 2.33 0.13 -7.93 -0.95 0.54
2003 10 -0.17 -1.79 -0.42 1.95 2.7 0.5 -8.46 -0.86 0.55
2003 11 -0.01 -1.64 -0.17 2.01 3.49 0.01 -7.9 -0.64 0.64
2003 12 0.08 -1.47 -0.07 2. 3.87 -0.14 -8.09 -0.51 0.69
2004 1 0.26 -1.37 0.26 2.13 4.31 -0.05 -8.04 -0.27 0.82
2004 2 0.34 -1.22 0.08 2.4 4.29 0.07 -8.52 -0.35 1.06
2004 3 0.43 -1.1 0.28 2.33 3.96 0.21 -9.21 -0.14 1.02
2004 4 0.64 -0.99 0.7 2.42 3.51 0.29 -7.85 0.2 1.1
2004 5 0.69 -1.03 0.8 2.54 3.9 0.06 -7.65 0.25 1.16
2004 6 0.63 -1.14 0.8 2.46 3.91 -0.32 -7.59 0.23 1.04
2004 7 0.5 -1.43 0.51 2.69 3.56 -0.29 -8.63 -0.06 1.08
2004 8 0.25 -1.76 0.07 2.73 3.08 -1.24 -9.54 -0.45 0.98
2004 9 0.08 -1.83 -0.29 2.64 2.91 -1.53 -11.49 -0.7 0.89
2004 10 0.03 -2.05 -0.44 2.92 2.4 -1.58 -12.03 -0.89 0.99
2004 11 0.07 -2.04 -0.58 3.17 1.94 -1.78 -12.57 -0.99 1.17
2004 12 0.03 -1.96 -0.61 2.99 1.38 -1.94 -12.69 -0.98 1.09
2005 1 -0.12 -1.84 -1.11 2.89 -0.19 -1.88 -13.13 -1.27 1.07
2005 2 0.1 -1.62 -0.85 3.08 0.83 -1.57 -12.1 -1.04 1.3
2005 3 0.23 -1.01 -1.34 3.32 1.37 -1.9 -11.6 -1.12 1.65
2005 4 0.34 -0.51 -1.4 3.17 1.66 -2.06 -13.14 -0.96 1.7
2005 5 0.68 -0.11 -1.01 3.37 2.37 -1.97 -13.45 -0.53 1.95
2005 6 0.77 -0.02 -1.26 3.84 3.22 -1.65 -15.19 -0.66 2.26
2005 7 0.83 0.18 -1.27 3.8 3.43 -1.29 -15.56 -0.59 2.31
2005 8 1.04 0.56 -1.14 3.9 3.27 -1.51 -14.98 -0.4 2.54
2005 9 1.11 0.78 -1.16 3.91 3.24 -0.8 -15.35 -0.34 2.63
2005 10 1.42 1.13 -0.91 4.23 2.71 -0.91 -14.9 -0.04 2.94
2005 11 1.72 1.25 -0.46 4.58 3.41 -0.1 -14.67 0.27 3.24
2005 12 1.96 1.52 -0.22 4.77 4.95 -0.05 -13.99 0.53 3.45
2006 1 1.91 1.62 -0.43 4.75 6.93 0.87 -15.7 0.45 3.45
2006 2 2. 1.68 -0.77 5.32 6.07 1.18 -12.24 0.3 3.78
2006 3 2.12 2.08 -0.86 5.35 6.45 1.22 -13.98 0.4 3.92
2006 4 2.26 1.96 -0.75 5.83 6.75 1.29 -15.44 0.41 4.2
2006 5 2.38 1.7 -0.71 6.46 5.45 2.26 -12.8 0.39 4.47
2006 6 2.17 1.21 -0.71 6.34 5.93 1.37 -12.37 0.27 4.15
2006 7 2.13 1.05 -0.58 6.26 6.3 1.22 -11.53 0.3 4.05
2006 8 2.22 1.37 -0.81 6.43 5.55 0.3 -9.37 0.28 4.25
2006 9 2.32 1.59 -0.89 6.59 5.67 0.24 -9.25 0.28 4.45
2006 10 2.63 1.66 -0.43 7.02 8.06 0.23 -12.64 0.61 4.75
2006 11 2.97 2.21 -0.61 7.68 7.77 0.86 -16.12 0.69 5.37
2006 12 3.04 2.44 -0.94 7.97 8.44 1.28 -15.64 0.52 5.67
2007 1 3.35 3.25 -0.88 7.98 10.5 0.39 -14.02 0.85 5.96
2007 2 4.38 4.66 0.3 8.43 11.67 0.73 -14.07 2.08 6.79
2007 3 4.94 5.74 0.5 8.76 11.72 0.58 -18.17 2.64 7.34
2007 4 5.59 6.36 1.29 9.31 11.57 0.54 -12.38 3.45 7.83
2007 5 6.16 6.87 2.18 9.6 16.64 1.01 -13.42 4.25 8.15
2007 6 6.42 7.48 2.3 9.62 15.54 0.79 -11.46 4.62 8.3
2007 7 6.74 8.1 2.69 9.5 17.58 2. -10.14 5.09 8.46
2007 8 7.3 9.17 3.09 9.68 19.74 3.43 -7.91 5.74 8.94
2007 9 8.14 9.74 3.93 10.8 21.78 4.36 -4.25 6.4 9.95
2007 10 8.82 10.56 4.45 11.5 21.01 1.8 -2.58 6.96 10.76
2007 11 9.43 10.77 5.21 12.4 23.42 1.26 2.11 7.46 11.48
2007 12 9.72 11. 5.2 13.09 25.13 3.68 4.6 7.48 12.06
2008 1 9.74 10.5 4.46 14.5 27.86 4.2 3.96 6.87 12.72
2008 2 8.95 9.62 2.39 15.2 27.46 2.11 1.21 5.18 12.88
2008 3 8.23 8.13 1.63 15.4 25.88 0.46 1.07 4.21 12.43
2008 4 7.89 5.69 3.96 14.6 24.84 -2.01 -2.39 5.07 10.83
2008 5 7.34 2.96 6.08 13.68 24.44 -0.18 -2.72 5.67 9.07
2008 6 5.76 -0.41 6.18 12.36 29.15 2.2 -4.82 4.76 6.8
2008 7 4.46 -3.12 5.67 11.83 28.71 -2.45 -4.98 3.5 5.45
2008 8 3.59 -5.17 5.72 11.35 28.58 -1.46 -3.45 2.74 4.48
2008 9 2.46 -7.68 6.01 10.26 30.63 -1.93 -2.65 1.91 3.03
2008 10 1.93 -9.37 5.7 10.83 32.29 -0.99 -4.27 1.06 2.85
2008 11 1.27 -10.98 6.2 10. 32.98 -6.36 -4.28 0.61 1.95
2008 12 0.76 -12.8 6.15 10.51 35.4 -5.92 -1.17 -0.08 1.63
2009 1 -0.47 -16.1 6.53 9.92 41.02 -9.79 -6.45 -1.03 0.11
2009 2 -1.01 -20.35 8.53 10.93 47.54 -12.21 -4.3 -1.38 -0.6
2009 3 -2.26 -24.52 9.84 10.27 38.97 -18.56 -1.17 -1.79 -2.74
2009 4 -4.23 -31.24 11.35 10.01 31.21 -17.19 5.96 -3.4 -5.09
2009 5 -6.47 -37.09 11.82 9.01 31.41 -26.33 6.69 -5.14 -7.85
2009 6 -10.78 -45.53 9.71 7.07 28.2 -26.09 14.27 -9.33 -12.27
2009 7 -16.72 -54.09 3.86 4.03 20.76 -24.21 13.74 -16.18 -17.26
2009 8 -19.36 -58.73 -1.33 6.38 11.76 -13.63 6.47 -21.3 -17.31
2009 9 -24.03 -65.01 -5.59 3.11 0.44 -9.19 7.47 -26.12 -21.81
2009 10 -25.55 -69.85 -4.42 2.56 -2.13 -9.88 22. -26.85 -24.12
2009 11 -30.75 -78.93 -9.66 1.87 -10.33 -9.02 -6.24 -33.18 -28.13
2009 12 -36.6 -88.12 -15.98 0.31 -31.48 4.37 25.88 -40.88 -32.04
2010 1 -47.24 -97.91 -30.99 -6.66 -26.34 -1.09 -17.9 -54.11 -40.
2010 2 -49.48 -103.52 -32.44 -5.9 -22.1 9.85 -21.05 -56.09 -42.49
2010 3 -53.82 -100.67 -50.12 -4.14 -39.85 27.15 -94.54 -65.71 -41.26
2010 4 -55.57 -98.28 -57.51 -4.53 -65.97 40.56 -105.71 -68.55 -41.86
2010 5 -60.42 -94.09 -67.37 -14.39 -51.55 36.38 -105.12 -71.84 -48.38
2010 6 -64.07 -82.23 -77.59 -28.7 -11.17 20.48 -159.24 -71.31 -56.32
2010 7 -69.04 -77.24 -90.99 -36.02 -43.82 -0.85 -161.23 -77.47 -59.99
2010 8 -67.38 -67.11 -89.75 -43.59 -62.62 -43.05 -152.64 -72.49 -61.7
2010 9 -59.72 -49.04 -69.7 -61.14 -68.36 -92.92 -98.48 -52.24 -67.2
2010 10 -43.8 -24.37 -52.03 -57.04 -101.89 -65.47 -41.07 -34.11 -53.57
2010 11 -39.09 11.91 -66.39 -67.89 -135.86 -36.73 64.16 -31.71 -46.37
2010 12 -16.83 46.7 -17.97 -87.77 -174.14 -14.88 190.11 11.11 -45.5
2011 1 16.32 73.56 44.88 -78.96 -152.76 63.36 170.76 59.64 -28.68
2011 2 42.6 85.8 85.8 -52.44 238.44 147.72 54.84 86.88 -3.48
2011 3 91.8 154.8 17.4 99. -332.4 -161.4 -296.4 73.8 110.4
2011 4 24. 157.2 -150. 56.4 327.6 -309.6 -662.4 -33.6 82.8
2011 5 0.126 -0.025 0.242 0.175 0.834 -0.169 -0.422 0.181 0.069

as anyone can see, the trends for the full time series are stable and change slowly while the short time series, such as less than 5 years, are quite volatile. edthecynic's example of a one month time trend(-662.4) for the contUS is ridiculous and misleading in the extreme.

 

[edthecynic]

and the rest of the trends

2001 1 -0.4 -1.16 0.22 -0.19 3.83 -1.27 -4.84 -0.23 -0.58
2001 2 -0.49 -1.32 0.16 -0.22 3.78 -1.37 -4.79 -0.32 -0.66
2001 3 -0.56 -1.43 -0.1 -0.06 3.18 -1.43 -5.18 -0.52 -0.6
2001 4 -0.62 -1.61 -0.05 -0.09 2.85 -1.51 -5.73 -0.55 -0.68
2001 5 -0.59 -1.67 0.01 0.02 2.68 -1.58 -5.66 -0.54 -0.64
2001 6 -0.58 -1.77 0.17 -0.02 2.73 -1.45 -5.56 -0.46 -0.7
2001 7 -0.67 -1.96 0.15 -0.07 2.78 -1.67 -5.79 -0.55 -0.8
2001 8 -0.73 -2.05 0.15 -0.16 2.75 -1.65 -5.82 -0.58 -0.89
2001 9 -0.66 -2.05 0.27 -0.07 2.91 -1.61 -5.54 -0.49 -0.84
2001 10 -0.71 -2.17 0.27 -0.08 3.04 -1.85 -5.59 -0.54 -0.88
2001 11 -0.69 -2.19 0.21 0.06 2.77 -1.75 -5.88 -0.58 -0.81
2001 12 -0.67 -2.2 0.26 0.07 2.83 -1.93 -5.01 -0.55 -0.8
2002 1 -0.68 -2.22 0.14 0.21 3.19 -2.03 -5.04 -0.63 -0.73
2002 2 -0.64 -2.29 0.28 0.26 2.9 -2.21 -4.65 -0.57 -0.72
2002 3 -0.55 -2.32 0.43 0.43 1.85 -2.03 -4.52 -0.47 -0.62
2002 4 -0.52 -2.36 0.59 0.41 2.08 -1.65 -5.4 -0.38 -0.66
2002 5 -0.46 -2.43 0.62 0.63 1.73 -1.39 -5.03 -0.39 -0.53
2002 6 -0.43 -2.39 0.61 0.68 1.85 -1.03 -5.64 -0.38 -0.49
2002 7 -0.36 -2.4 0.65 0.91 1.94 -0.65 -5.21 -0.37 -0.34
2002 8 -0.29 -2.28 0.72 0.9 1.67 -0.66 -4.62 -0.27 -0.31
2002 9 -0.27 -2.27 0.56 1.13 1.45 -0.37 -4.77 -0.37 -0.16
2002 10 -0.25 -2.3 0.55 1.22 1.25 -0.16 -4.7 -0.38 -0.12
2002 11 -0.35 -2.32 0.18 1.32 1.48 0.06 -6.09 -0.65 -0.04
2002 12 -0.35 -2.28 0.14 1.31 1.98 -0.11 -6.71 -0.67 -0.03
2003 1 -0.4 -2.14 -0.26 1.45 2.26 0.11 -7.06 -0.9 0.12
2003 2 -0.27 -1.98 -0.1 1.49 2.4 0.5 -6.7 -0.73 0.21
2003 3 -0.23 -1.74 -0.35 1.62 2.06 0.64 -7.61 -0.8 0.36
2003 4 -0.25 -1.69 -0.55 1.71 1.97 0.71 -7.78 -0.9 0.43
2003 5 -0.23 -1.66 -0.54 1.74 2.12 0.95 -7.79 -0.88 0.45
2003 6 -0.16 -1.63 -0.44 1.82 2.07 0.42 -7.98 -0.78 0.49
2003 7 -0.25 -1.8 -0.52 1.8 1.86 0.03 -8.59 -0.91 0.43
2003 8 -0.24 -1.77 -0.62 1.93 1.89 -0.28 -8.37 -0.98 0.54
2003 9 -0.22 -1.77 -0.58 1.92 2.33 0.13 -7.93 -0.95 0.54
2003 10 -0.17 -1.79 -0.42 1.95 2.7 0.5 -8.46 -0.86 0.55
2003 11 -0.01 -1.64 -0.17 2.01 3.49 0.01 -7.9 -0.64 0.64
2003 12 0.08 -1.47 -0.07 2. 3.87 -0.14 -8.09 -0.51 0.69
2004 1 0.26 -1.37 0.26 2.13 4.31 -0.05 -8.04 -0.27 0.82
2004 2 0.34 -1.22 0.08 2.4 4.29 0.07 -8.52 -0.35 1.06
2004 3 0.43 -1.1 0.28 2.33 3.96 0.21 -9.21 -0.14 1.02
2004 4 0.64 -0.99 0.7 2.42 3.51 0.29 -7.85 0.2 1.1
2004 5 0.69 -1.03 0.8 2.54 3.9 0.06 -7.65 0.25 1.16
2004 6 0.63 -1.14 0.8 2.46 3.91 -0.32 -7.59 0.23 1.04
2004 7 0.5 -1.43 0.51 2.69 3.56 -0.29 -8.63 -0.06 1.08
2004 8 0.25 -1.76 0.07 2.73 3.08 -1.24 -9.54 -0.45 0.98
2004 9 0.08 -1.83 -0.29 2.64 2.91 -1.53 -11.49 -0.7 0.89
2004 10 0.03 -2.05 -0.44 2.92 2.4 -1.58 -12.03 -0.89 0.99
2004 11 0.07 -2.04 -0.58 3.17 1.94 -1.78 -12.57 -0.99 1.17
2004 12 0.03 -1.96 -0.61 2.99 1.38 -1.94 -12.69 -0.98 1.09
2005 1 -0.12 -1.84 -1.11 2.89 -0.19 -1.88 -13.13 -1.27 1.07
2005 2 0.1 -1.62 -0.85 3.08 0.83 -1.57 -12.1 -1.04 1.3
2005 3 0.23 -1.01 -1.34 3.32 1.37 -1.9 -11.6 -1.12 1.65
2005 4 0.34 -0.51 -1.4 3.17 1.66 -2.06 -13.14 -0.96 1.7
2005 5 0.68 -0.11 -1.01 3.37 2.37 -1.97 -13.45 -0.53 1.95
2005 6 0.77 -0.02 -1.26 3.84 3.22 -1.65 -15.19 -0.66 2.26
2005 7 0.83 0.18 -1.27 3.8 3.43 -1.29 -15.56 -0.59 2.31
2005 8 1.04 0.56 -1.14 3.9 3.27 -1.51 -14.98 -0.4 2.54
2005 9 1.11 0.78 -1.16 3.91 3.24 -0.8 -15.35 -0.34 2.63
2005 10 1.42 1.13 -0.91 4.23 2.71 -0.91 -14.9 -0.04 2.94
2005 11 1.72 1.25 -0.46 4.58 3.41 -0.1 -14.67 0.27 3.24
2005 12 1.96 1.52 -0.22 4.77 4.95 -0.05 -13.99 0.53 3.45
2006 1 1.91 1.62 -0.43 4.75 6.93 0.87 -15.7 0.45 3.45
2006 2 2. 1.68 -0.77 5.32 6.07 1.18 -12.24 0.3 3.78
2006 3 2.12 2.08 -0.86 5.35 6.45 1.22 -13.98 0.4 3.92
2006 4 2.26 1.96 -0.75 5.83 6.75 1.29 -15.44 0.41 4.2
2006 5 2.38 1.7 -0.71 6.46 5.45 2.26 -12.8 0.39 4.47
2006 6 2.17 1.21 -0.71 6.34 5.93 1.37 -12.37 0.27 4.15
2006 7 2.13 1.05 -0.58 6.26 6.3 1.22 -11.53 0.3 4.05
2006 8 2.22 1.37 -0.81 6.43 5.55 0.3 -9.37 0.28 4.25
2006 9 2.32 1.59 -0.89 6.59 5.67 0.24 -9.25 0.28 4.45
2006 10 2.63 1.66 -0.43 7.02 8.06 0.23 -12.64 0.61 4.75
2006 11 2.97 2.21 -0.61 7.68 7.77 0.86 -16.12 0.69 5.37
2006 12 3.04 2.44 -0.94 7.97 8.44 1.28 -15.64 0.52 5.67
2007 1 3.35 3.25 -0.88 7.98 10.5 0.39 -14.02 0.85 5.96
2007 2 4.38 4.66 0.3 8.43 11.67 0.73 -14.07 2.08 6.79
2007 3 4.94 5.74 0.5 8.76 11.72 0.58 -18.17 2.64 7.34
2007 4 5.59 6.36 1.29 9.31 11.57 0.54 -12.38 3.45 7.83
2007 5 6.16 6.87 2.18 9.6 16.64 1.01 -13.42 4.25 8.15
2007 6 6.42 7.48 2.3 9.62 15.54 0.79 -11.46 4.62 8.3
2007 7 6.74 8.1 2.69 9.5 17.58 2. -10.14 5.09 8.46
2007 8 7.3 9.17 3.09 9.68 19.74 3.43 -7.91 5.74 8.94
2007 9 8.14 9.74 3.93 10.8 21.78 4.36 -4.25 6.4 9.95
2007 10 8.82 10.56 4.45 11.5 21.01 1.8 -2.58 6.96 10.76
2007 11 9.43 10.77 5.21 12.4 23.42 1.26 2.11 7.46 11.48
2007 12 9.72 11. 5.2 13.09 25.13 3.68 4.6 7.48 12.06
2008 1 9.74 10.5 4.46 14.5 27.86 4.2 3.96 6.87 12.72
2008 2 8.95 9.62 2.39 15.2 27.46 2.11 1.21 5.18 12.88
2008 3 8.23 8.13 1.63 15.4 25.88 0.46 1.07 4.21 12.43
2008 4 7.89 5.69 3.96 14.6 24.84 -2.01 -2.39 5.07 10.83
2008 5 7.34 2.96 6.08 13.68 24.44 -0.18 -2.72 5.67 9.07
2008 6 5.76 -0.41 6.18 12.36 29.15 2.2 -4.82 4.76 6.8
2008 7 4.46 -3.12 5.67 11.83 28.71 -2.45 -4.98 3.5 5.45
2008 8 3.59 -5.17 5.72 11.35 28.58 -1.46 -3.45 2.74 4.48
2008 9 2.46 -7.68 6.01 10.26 30.63 -1.93 -2.65 1.91 3.03
2008 10 1.93 -9.37 5.7 10.83 32.29 -0.99 -4.27 1.06 2.85
2008 11 1.27 -10.98 6.2 10. 32.98 -6.36 -4.28 0.61 1.95
2008 12 0.76 -12.8 6.15 10.51 35.4 -5.92 -1.17 -0.08 1.63
2009 1 -0.47 -16.1 6.53 9.92 41.02 -9.79 -6.45 -1.03 0.11
2009 2 -1.01 -20.35 8.53 10.93 47.54 -12.21 -4.3 -1.38 -0.6
2009 3 -2.26 -24.52 9.84 10.27 38.97 -18.56 -1.17 -1.79 -2.74
2009 4 -4.23 -31.24 11.35 10.01 31.21 -17.19 5.96 -3.4 -5.09
2009 5 -6.47 -37.09 11.82 9.01 31.41 -26.33 6.69 -5.14 -7.85
2009 6 -10.78 -45.53 9.71 7.07 28.2 -26.09 14.27 -9.33 -12.27
2009 7 -16.72 -54.09 3.86 4.03 20.76 -24.21 13.74 -16.18 -17.26
2009 8 -19.36 -58.73 -1.33 6.38 11.76 -13.63 6.47 -21.3 -17.31
2009 9 -24.03 -65.01 -5.59 3.11 0.44 -9.19 7.47 -26.12 -21.81
2009 10 -25.55 -69.85 -4.42 2.56 -2.13 -9.88 22. -26.85 -24.12
2009 11 -30.75 -78.93 -9.66 1.87 -10.33 -9.02 -6.24 -33.18 -28.13
2009 12 -36.6 -88.12 -15.98 0.31 -31.48 4.37 25.88 -40.88 -32.04
2010 1 -47.24 -97.91 -30.99 -6.66 -26.34 -1.09 -17.9 -54.11 -40.
2010 2 -49.48 -103.52 -32.44 -5.9 -22.1 9.85 -21.05 -56.09 -42.49
2010 3 -53.82 -100.67 -50.12 -4.14 -39.85 27.15 -94.54 -65.71 -41.26
2010 4 -55.57 -98.28 -57.51 -4.53 -65.97 40.56 -105.71 -68.55 -41.86
2010 5 -60.42 -94.09 -67.37 -14.39 -51.55 36.38 -105.12 -71.84 -48.38
2010 6 -64.07 -82.23 -77.59 -28.7 -11.17 20.48 -159.24 -71.31 -56.32
2010 7 -69.04 -77.24 -90.99 -36.02 -43.82 -0.85 -161.23 -77.47 -59.99
2010 8 -67.38 -67.11 -89.75 -43.59 -62.62 -43.05 -152.64 -72.49 -61.7
2010 9 -59.72 -49.04 -69.7 -61.14 -68.36 -92.92 -98.48 -52.24 -67.2
2010 10 -43.8 -24.37 -52.03 -57.04 -101.89 -65.47 -41.07 -34.11 -53.57
2010 11 -39.09 11.91 -66.39 -67.89 -135.86 -36.73 64.16 -31.71 -46.37
2010 12 -16.83 46.7 -17.97 -87.77 -174.14 -14.88 190.11 11.11 -45.5
2011 1 16.32 73.56 44.88 -78.96 -152.76 63.36 170.76 59.64 -28.68
2011 2 42.6 85.8 85.8 -52.44 238.44 147.72 54.84 86.88 -3.48
2011 3 91.8 154.8 17.4 99. -332.4 -161.4 -296.4 73.8 110.4
2011 4 24. 157.2 -150. 56.4 327.6 -309.6 -662.4 -33.6 82.8
2011 5 0.126 -0.025 0.242 0.175 0.834 -0.169 -0.422 0.181 0.069

as anyone can see, the trends for the full time series are stable and change slowly while the short time series, such as less than 5 years, are quite volatile. edthecynic's example of a one month time trend(-662.4) for the contUS is ridiculous and misleading in the extreme.

It's ridiculous and misleading to the EXTREME because the numbers are ridiculous and misleading to the extreme and completely made up!!!

In the same month You have parts of the globe below absolute zero and other parts above the boiling point of water. Why was it never reported that in April of this year the continental US was colder than twice absolute zero?????? (For the record no one has ever been able to cool anything to absolute zero, let alone twice as cold as absolute zero) I marked the Lubos ones below absolute zero in black and the ones above the boiling point of water in red. And then I marked the corresponding real numbers the same way below.

Here are the real numbers directly from the RSS web site for 2001 to 2011. As you can see, the actual anomaly for the US in April 2011 was 0.129C not -662.4C

http://www.remss.com/data/msu/month...hannel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt

year mon -70.0/ -20.0/ 20.0/ -70.0/ 60.0/ -70.0/ Cont. 0.0/ -70.0/
******** 82.5 *20.0 *82.5 *-20.0 *82.5 *-60.0 *USA *82.5 *0.0
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2001 1 0.101 -0.060 0.277 0.098 0.379 -0.131 0.600 0.177 0.022
2001 2 0.124 0.080 -0.155 0.473 -0.735 -0.049 -0.303 -0.070 0.328
2001 3 0.178 -0.066 0.534 0.077 -0.150 -0.065 -0.616 0.313 0.037
2001 4 0.358 0.185 0.533 0.367 0.243 -0.041 0.697 0.410 0.302
2001 5 0.303 0.130 0.712 0.062 0.666 0.350 0.733 0.519 0.076
2001 6 0.119 -0.058 0.375 0.046 0.680 -0.341 0.086 0.211 0.022
2001 7 0.180 0.163 0.399 -0.037 0.535 0.137 0.488 0.314 0.039
2001 8 0.434 0.342 0.631 0.326 0.884 0.162 1.065 0.538 0.324
2001 9 0.207 0.114 0.383 0.125 0.809 -0.350 0.440 0.286 0.124
2001 10 0.327 0.321 0.278 0.386 0.082 0.297 -0.017 0.295 0.361
2001 11 0.326 0.312 0.496 0.161 0.702 -0.229 2.093 0.427 0.221
2001 12 0.286 0.315 0.175 0.370 1.226 -0.063 0.409 0.234 0.340
2002 1 0.358 0.210 0.649 0.217 0.059 -0.197 1.143 0.483 0.227
2002 2 0.450 0.297 0.651 0.410 -1.194 0.426 0.651 0.538 0.358
2002 3 0.338 0.275 0.648 0.076 1.039 0.744 -1.023 0.523 0.144
2002 4 0.370 0.234 0.428 0.464 0.066 0.513 1.081 0.340 0.402
2002 5 0.324 0.414 0.353 0.189 0.868 0.655 -0.534 0.381 0.264
2002 6 0.398 0.312 0.438 0.453 0.799 0.645 1.161 0.372 0.424
2002 7 0.370 0.529 0.480 0.071 0.247 0.001 1.368 0.514 0.220
2002 8 0.301 0.348 0.128 0.431 0.332 0.470 0.189 0.200 0.406
2002 9 0.292 0.285 0.367 0.218 0.394 0.309 0.522 0.346 0.234
2002 10 0.120 0.305 -0.153 0.203 1.041 0.314 -1.620 -0.028 0.275
2002 11 0.270 0.386 0.347 0.053 1.394 -0.261 -0.399 0.346 0.189
2002 12 0.209 0.509 -0.169 0.268 1.056 0.301 0.015 0.052 0.372
2003 1 0.444 0.541 0.654 0.110 0.846 0.510 1.030 0.615 0.265
2003 2 0.321 0.617 0.079 0.240 0.182 0.146 -0.718 0.284 0.359
2003 3 0.234 0.355 0.166 0.166 0.551 0.046 0.317 0.245 0.222
2003 4 0.296 0.332 0.454 0.088 0.868 0.257 0.537 0.421 0.167
2003 5 0.347 0.308 0.577 0.147 0.589 -0.734 0.311 0.500 0.188
2003 6 0.143 0.070 0.334 0.022 0.413 -0.524 -0.210 0.224 0.058
2003 7 0.282 0.322 0.308 0.208 0.719 -0.391 0.831 0.290 0.274
2003 8 0.277 0.286 0.498 0.030 1.197 0.482 1.081 0.421 0.127
2003 9 0.324 0.256 0.622 0.084 1.090 0.410 -0.086 0.496 0.145
2003 10 0.435 0.456 0.716 0.112 1.544 -0.599 1.176 0.629 0.233
2003 11 0.351 0.456 0.532 0.036 1.026 -0.175 0.301 0.504 0.190
2003 12 0.448 0.369 0.779 0.184 1.073 0.089 0.571 0.618 0.270
2004 1 0.317 0.414 0.203 0.329 0.554 0.111 -0.006 0.264 0.373
2004 2 0.326 0.374 0.616 -0.038 0.229 0.132 -0.195 0.573 0.069
2004 3 0.442 0.359 0.829 0.123 0.141 0.052 1.920 0.683 0.190
2004 4 0.273 0.191 0.470 0.155 1.003 -0.262 0.674 0.373 0.168
2004 5 0.155 0.131 0.375 -0.052 0.612 -0.386 0.525 0.310 -0.007
2004 6 0.099 -0.041 0.102 0.256 0.277 0.032 -0.535 0.048 0.152
2004 7 -0.000 -0.050 -0.011 0.068 0.190 -0.874 -0.350 -0.026 0.027
2004 8 0.083 0.205 0.082 -0.055 0.497 -0.226 -1.231 0.129 0.034
2004 9 0.207 0.069 0.293 0.274 0.206 0.008 0.129 0.200 0.214
2004 10 0.281 0.287 0.309 0.243 0.293 -0.118 0.152 0.286 0.274
2004 11 0.215 0.340 0.410 -0.135 0.244 -0.067 0.531 0.382 0.041
2004 12 0.124 0.364 0.038 -0.058 -0.544 0.113 0.271 0.142 0.105
2005 1 0.436 0.442 0.663 0.185 1.612 0.308 1.443 0.566 0.299
2005 2 0.346 0.719 0.071 0.213 1.169 -0.210 0.967 0.313 0.380
2005 3 0.322 0.595 0.418 -0.091 0.960 -0.054 -0.605 0.504 0.132
2005 4 0.483 0.501 0.752 0.175 1.241 0.129 0.370 0.679 0.278
2005 5 0.289 0.247 0.273 0.353 1.300 0.283 -0.627 0.266 0.313
2005 6 0.260 0.326 0.454 -0.021 0.815 0.298 0.406 0.403 0.112
2005 7 0.359 0.428 0.542 0.083 0.553 -0.119 1.050 0.484 0.227
2005 8 0.261 0.305 0.443 0.016 0.651 0.501 0.382 0.382 0.135
2005 9 0.402 0.372 0.608 0.216 0.339 -0.061 0.914 0.534 0.264
2005 10 0.386 0.213 0.722 0.224 1.129 0.509 0.737 0.526 0.240
2005 11 0.329 0.300 0.569 0.107 1.595 0.011 0.986 0.475 0.177
2005 12 0.158 0.188 0.292 -0.018 1.764 0.512 -0.445 0.265 0.046
2006 1 0.234 0.158 0.235 0.318 0.074 0.120 2.525 0.230 0.237
2006 2 0.249 0.341 0.384 -0.001 0.795 -0.045 -0.487 0.379 0.113
2006 3 0.257 0.051 0.494 0.239 0.739 -0.028 -0.266 0.321 0.190
2006 4 0.237 -0.011 0.451 0.290 -0.083 0.431 1.887 0.304 0.166
2006 5 0.072 -0.116 0.433 -0.098 0.863 -0.535 0.657 0.262 -0.127
2006 6 0.167 0.072 0.494 -0.075 0.791 -0.138 0.816 0.335 -0.009
2006 7 0.230 0.299 0.317 0.056 0.268 -0.481 1.371 0.314 0.142
2006 8 0.232 0.241 0.397 0.046 0.688 -0.055 0.355 0.326 0.134
2006 9 0.319 0.168 0.630 0.158 1.663 -0.028 -1.161 0.462 0.169
2006 10 0.318 0.365 0.344 0.238 0.448 0.230 -1.050 0.344 0.291
2006 11 0.196 0.215 0.295 0.070 0.855 0.123 0.673 0.245 0.145
2006 12 0.289 0.425 0.456 -0.046 1.358 -0.397 1.072 0.443 0.128
2007 1 0.545 0.614 0.867 0.123 0.953 0.096 0.377 0.761 0.320
2007 2 0.334 0.443 0.467 0.067 0.511 -0.092 -1.070 0.473 0.188
2007 3 0.349 0.241 0.662 0.137 0.453 -0.049 2.456 0.535 0.154
2007 4 0.298 0.188 0.661 0.037 2.174 0.120 -0.030 0.502 0.085
2007 5 0.184 0.202 0.385 -0.051 0.050 -0.115 0.945 0.339 0.022
2007 6 0.195 0.188 0.465 -0.085 1.046 0.326 0.666 0.356 0.027
2007 7 0.261 0.302 0.451 0.012 1.017 0.344 0.868 0.394 0.122
2007 8 0.318 0.127 0.564 0.274 0.916 0.154 1.166 0.377 0.256
2007 9 0.253 0.182 0.448 0.127 0.121 -0.796 0.503 0.332 0.172
2007 10 0.218 0.007 0.494 0.164 0.964 -0.192 1.198 0.302 0.130
2007 11 0.128 0.014 0.288 0.088 0.729 0.534 0.504 0.174 0.080
2007 12 0.064 -0.152 0.126 0.244 0.926 0.023 -0.290 0.038 0.091
2008 1 -0.104 -0.211 -0.133 0.049 0.173 -0.561 -0.725 -0.172 -0.033
2008 2 -0.056 -0.296 0.207 -0.062 -0.031 -0.396 -0.093 0.037 -0.153
2008 3 0.048 -0.427 0.836 -0.251 0.145 -0.502 -0.737 0.431 -0.353
2008 4 0.027 -0.398 0.728 -0.236 0.320 0.368 -0.051 0.360 -0.321
2008 5 -0.130 -0.425 0.312 -0.265 1.246 0.410 -0.351 0.081 -0.350
2008 6 -0.031 -0.213 0.215 -0.086 0.278 -0.823 0.027 0.056 -0.122
2008 7 0.078 -0.035 0.322 -0.054 0.362 0.189 0.292 0.173 -0.021
2008 8 0.066 -0.050 0.361 -0.119 0.710 -0.055 0.139 0.186 -0.060
2008 9 0.183 0.127 0.275 0.149 0.626 0.152 -0.221 0.207 0.158
2008 10 0.180 0.175 0.392 -0.039 0.481 -0.689 0.028 0.284 0.072
2008 11 0.217 0.181 0.317 0.152 0.702 0.146 0.402 0.265 0.167
2008 12 0.150 0.050 0.373 0.025 1.030 -0.355 -0.623 0.254 0.041
2009 1 0.252 0.016 0.539 0.215 1.024 -0.119 0.280 0.338 0.162
2009 2 0.194 0.106 0.433 0.039 -0.560 -0.455 0.321 0.340 0.040
2009 3 0.155 -0.051 0.429 0.097 -0.262 0.369 0.611 0.239 0.067
2009 4 0.172 0.141 0.319 0.050 0.597 -0.551 -0.072 0.261 0.079
2009 5 0.055 0.034 0.123 0.007 0.356 0.338 0.444 0.105 0.003
2009 6 0.017 0.156 -0.091 -0.026 0.148 0.426 -0.266 -0.006 0.041
2009 7 0.329 0.527 0.067 0.381 0.208 0.929 -0.677 0.223 0.439
2009 8 0.243 0.467 0.215 0.015 0.246 0.364 -0.056 0.316 0.166
2009 9 0.471 0.599 0.571 0.219 0.906 0.008 0.646 0.595 0.342
2009 10 0.300 0.420 0.244 0.223 0.680 0.085 -1.609 0.319 0.280
2009 11 0.328 0.494 0.273 0.199 0.251 0.596 1.399 0.333 0.324
2009 12 0.204 0.534 0.026 0.018 1.535 -0.313 -1.929 0.206 0.203
2010 1 0.597 0.732 0.665 0.369 1.410 0.311 0.030 0.723 0.465
2010 2 0.524 0.966 0.184 0.383 0.694 0.358 -1.997 0.480 0.571
2010 3 0.599 0.835 0.623 0.303 0.671 0.066 0.419 0.717 0.475
2010 4 0.505 0.765 0.608 0.100 1.799 -0.437 0.716 0.683 0.319
2010 5 0.530 0.782 0.653 0.112 2.076 -0.576 -0.381 0.729 0.323
2010 6 0.493 0.490 0.641 0.339 0.548 -0.483 0.824 0.562 0.422
2010 7 0.564 0.444 0.871 0.372 0.984 -0.550 0.840 0.693 0.429
2010 8 0.553 0.383 0.974 0.299 1.218 -0.311 1.097 0.744 0.354
2010 9 0.510 0.257 0.746 0.548 0.988 0.587 0.634 0.532 0.488
2010 10 0.303 0.140 0.399 0.386 1.124 0.357 0.496 0.291 0.315
2010 11 0.316 -0.067 0.689 0.355 1.191 0.130 0.022 0.419 0.208
2010 12 0.220 -0.225 0.472 0.461 1.403 0.165 -0.853 0.230 0.210
2011 1 0.085 -0.299 0.211 0.389 1.803 -0.098 -0.791 0.041 0.130
2011 2 0.052 -0.222 0.055 0.360 -0.104 -0.584 -0.556 -0.011 0.117
2011 3 -0.027 -0.284 0.213 0.010 1.388 0.099 0.072 0.057 -0.115
2011 4 0.106 -0.156 0.366 0.128 0.562 0.088 0.129 0.208 -0.000
2011 5 0.129 -0.026 0.255 0.172 0.855 -0.170 -0.412 0.189 0.067
2011 6 0.277 0.134 0.457 0.248 0.897 0.469 0.536 0.352 0.198

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And here is the link to all the RSS data, Lower, Mid, and upper Troposphere, and others, I defy you to find Lubos' numbers anywhere in there!!!

www.remss.com - /data/msu/monthly_time_series/

 

[edthecynic]

as anyone can see, the trends for the full time series are stable and change slowly while the short time series, such as less than 5 years, are quite volatile. edthecynic's example of a one month time trend(-662.4) for the contUS is ridiculous and misleading in the extreme.

As anyone but a denier can see, a number twice as cold as absolute zero in the data set is a completely made up number.

Yet Ian tries to defend Lubos' data set even after the glaring error is pointed out to him, complete with the real numbers to back me up!!!

 

[IanC]

edthecynic- are you having a difficulty distinguishing that there is a difference between a trend and a temperature? I didnt realize your misunderstanding was such a simple matter or I would have pointed it out sooner. it is the same as the difference between acceleration and speed.

 

[edthecynic]

edthecynic- are you having a difficulty distinguishing that there is a difference between a trend and a temperature? I didnt realize your misunderstanding was such a simple matter or I would have pointed it out sooner. it is the same as the difference between acceleration and speed.

Don't give me that condescending bullshit.

I understand the difference between real RSS data and and the phony crap Lubos manufactured to create his bullshit trend that you swallowed whole because you were too stupid to recognize that it can't ever be twice as cold as absolute zero.


average acceleration =

 

[edthecynic]

Come on Ian, post a link directly from RSS to the numbers you and Lubos claim he got from RSS.

Even without the RSS numbers even a moron would have known Lubos' numbers were made up because even a moron knows it was not twice as cold as absolute zero last April anywhere in the universe, let alone in the continental US!!!!!

 

[IanC]

edthecynic- are you stupid or just argumentative?

you say you understand temps and trend, speed and acceleration, yet you continue to confuse the basic math principals.
from the RSS data.
april2011 contUS 0.129
may2011 contUS -0.421

(-0.421)-(0.129)=(-0.530) this is the change in temperature for those particular months

even though Lubos specifically states that extrapolating short term changes is foolhardy, you seem to want to focus on doing just that so we will do it. there are 12 months in a year, 100 years in a century so to change the -0.530C change in one month we have to multiply it by 12x100. -0.530x1200= -636C per century. my estimate is different than Lubos' -662.4 but still very close. I would imagine the difference is mostly because months have different amounts of days.

does this simple example clear things up for you? why dont you calculate the next month's trend with the latest data that was not available when Lubos posted his numbers. I am sure youwill like the result better because it is positive rather than negative, and high enough to melt Lead.

to reiterate! a temperature (in units, eg degree C) is not the same as a temperature trend (in units, eg degrees C per century). a month long temperature trend is meaningless, a ten year trend has some significance, and a thirty year trend is considered climate instead of weather when temperature is being examined.

 

[edthecynic]

edthecynic- are you stupid or just argumentative?

you say you understand temps and trend, speed and acceleration, yet you continue to confuse the basic math principals.
from the RSS data.
april2011 contUS 0.129
may2011 contUS -0.421

(-0.421)-(0.129)=(-0.530) this is the change in temperature for those particular months

even though Lubos specifically states that extrapolating short term changes is foolhardy, you seem to want to focus on doing just that so we will do it. there are 12 months in a year, 100 years in a century so to change the -0.530C change in one month we have to multiply it by 12x100. -0.530x1200= -636C per century. my estimate is different than Lubos' -662.4 but still very close. I would imagine the difference is mostly because months have different amounts of days.

does this simple example clear things up for you? why dont you calculate the next month's trend with the latest data that was not available when Lubos posted his numbers. I am sure youwill like the result better because it is positive rather than negative, and high enough to melt Lead.

to reiterate! a temperature (in units, eg degree C) is not the same as a temperature trend (in units, eg degrees C per century). a month long temperature trend is meaningless, a ten year trend has some significance, and a thirty year trend is considered climate instead of weather when temperature is being examined.

You, as a denier, just can't admit the truth, I know. But you keep making a bigger fool of yourself with each rationalization.

Actually you posted the Lubos "trends" for the month before your calculation also, and I posted the real RSS numbers for the same 3 months. Now as anyone with a brain knows, it does no good to calculate a trend like you did, using numbers Lubos didn't have, to test the accuracy of Lubos' numbers and the "logic" of your rationalization.
BTW, the RSS data for May 2011 was 0.412, not 0.421, which would have made your calculation even farther away from Lubos'.

So I will apply your rationalization to the RSS data for the month before your calculation and see if it matches Lubos' trend number for the same month that you posted.

Lubos trends
2011 3 -296.4
2011 4 -662.4
2011 5 -0.422

Actual RSS data
2011 3 0.072
2011 4 0.129
2011 5 -0.412
2011 6 0.536

The difference from +0.072 to +0.129 is +0.056 multiplied by 1200 = +67.2C, but Lubos calculates -296.4, which is again colder than absolute zero.

Maybe that was an odd month. So to be fair, lets use the real RSS data for months 5 and 6 to see if it matches the Lubos trend for the month after your rationalization.

The difference from -0.412 to +0.536 is +0.948 multiplied by 1200 = +1,137.6C and Lubos calculated -0.422 for the trend!!!!!

So we are back to either Lubos' numbers are made up, or your rationalization is asinine, or both.
My money is on both!

 

[IanC]

still acting stupid ed?
the stated trends are to 2011/05. your question is why the trend from 2011/03 to 2011/04 doesnt match the trend from 2011/03 to 2011/05.

lets look at the numbers. you posted

+0.072 to +0.129 is +0.056 multiplied by 1200 = +67.2C,

. I'll take your word for the math but you answer should be in degrees C per century because it is a trend not a temperature.

add the two trends 67.2 +(-662.4)= -595.2

because we are now dealing with two months so we need to divide by 2. -595.2/2= -297.6

again, there is a slight discrepancy due to length of month and/or other things

but -297 is very similar to -296 wouldnt you say?

 

[IanC]

edthecynic- are you stupid or just argumentative?

you say you understand temps and trend, speed and acceleration, yet you continue to confuse the basic math principals.
from the RSS data.
april2011 contUS 0.129
may2011 contUS -0.421

(-0.421)-(0.129)=(-0.530) this is the change in temperature for those particular months

even though Lubos specifically states that extrapolating short term changes is foolhardy, you seem to want to focus on doing just that so we will do it. there are 12 months in a year, 100 years in a century so to change the -0.530C change in one month we have to multiply it by 12x100. -0.530x1200= -636C per century. my estimate is different than Lubos' -662.4 but still very close. I would imagine the difference is mostly because months have different amounts of days.

does this simple example clear things up for you? why dont you calculate the next month's trend with the latest data that was not available when Lubos posted his numbers. I am sure youwill like the result better because it is positive rather than negative, and high enough to melt Lead.

to reiterate! a temperature (in units, eg degree C) is not the same as a temperature trend (in units, eg degrees C per century). a month long temperature trend is meaningless, a ten year trend has some significance, and a thirty year trend is considered climate instead of weather when temperature is being examined.

You, as a denier, just can't admit the truth, I know. But you keep making a bigger fool of yourself with each rationalization.

Actually you posted the Lubos "trends" for the month before your calculation also, and I posted the real RSS numbers for the same 3 months. Now as anyone with a brain knows, it does no good to calculate a trend like you did, using numbers Lubos didn't have, to test the accuracy of Lubos' numbers and the "logic" of your rationalization.
BTW, the RSS data for May 2011 was 0.412, not 0.421, which would have made your calculation even farther away from Lubos'.

So I will apply your rationalization to the RSS data for the month before your calculation and see if it matches Lubos' trend number for the same month that you posted.

Lubos trends
2011 3 -296.4
2011 4 -662.4
2011 5 -0.422

Actual RSS data
2011 3 0.072
2011 4 0.129
2011 5 -0.412
2011 6 0.536

The difference from +0.072 to +0.129 is +0.056 multiplied by 1200 = +67.2C, but Lubos calculates -296.4, which is again colder than absolute zero.

Maybe that was an odd month. So to be fair, lets use the real RSS data for months 5 and 6 to see if it matches the Lubos trend for the month after your rationalization.

The difference from -0.412 to +0.536 is +0.948 multiplied by 1200 = +1,137.6C and Lubos calculated -0.422 for the trend!!!!!

So we are back to either Lubos' numbers are made up, or your rationalization is asinine, or both.
My money is on both!

hahaha, I just noticed that you made a big deal about me transposing numbers. what percentage difference does it make? hahaha. you cant understand the difference between trend and temperature but you think inconsequential math mistakes done on my phone are important! rotfl

btw, the last month of data from RSS is out of range. if you want to use Lubos' code to recalculate with the extra month go ahead but dont pretend that there is a trend number in Lubos' table for it.

 

[edthecynic]

edthecynic- are you stupid or just argumentative?

you say you understand temps and trend, speed and acceleration, yet you continue to confuse the basic math principals.
from the RSS data.
april2011 contUS 0.129
may2011 contUS -0.421

(-0.421)-(0.129)=(-0.530) this is the change in temperature for those particular months

even though Lubos specifically states that extrapolating short term changes is foolhardy, you seem to want to focus on doing just that so we will do it. there are 12 months in a year, 100 years in a century so to change the -0.530C change in one month we have to multiply it by 12x100. -0.530x1200= -636C per century. my estimate is different than Lubos' -662.4 but still very close. I would imagine the difference is mostly because months have different amounts of days.

does this simple example clear things up for you? why dont you calculate the next month's trend with the latest data that was not available when Lubos posted his numbers. I am sure youwill like the result better because it is positive rather than negative, and high enough to melt Lead.

to reiterate! a temperature (in units, eg degree C) is not the same as a temperature trend (in units, eg degrees C per century). a month long temperature trend is meaningless, a ten year trend has some significance, and a thirty year trend is considered climate instead of weather when temperature is being examined.

You, as a denier, just can't admit the truth, I know. But you keep making a bigger fool of yourself with each rationalization.

Actually you posted the Lubos "trends" for the month before your calculation also, and I posted the real RSS numbers for the same 3 months. Now as anyone with a brain knows, it does no good to calculate a trend like you did, using numbers Lubos didn't have, to test the accuracy of Lubos' numbers and the "logic" of your rationalization.
BTW, the RSS data for May 2011 was 0.412, not 0.421, which would have made your calculation even farther away from Lubos'.

So I will apply your rationalization to the RSS data for the month before your calculation and see if it matches Lubos' trend number for the same month that you posted.

Lubos trends
2011 3 -296.4
2011 4 -662.4
2011 5 -0.422

Actual RSS data
2011 3 0.072
2011 4 0.129
2011 5 -0.412
2011 6 0.536

The difference from +0.072 to +0.129 is +0.056 multiplied by 1200 = +67.2C, but Lubos calculates -296.4, which is again colder than absolute zero.

Maybe that was an odd month. So to be fair, lets use the real RSS data for months 5 and 6 to see if it matches the Lubos trend for the month after your rationalization.

The difference from -0.412 to +0.536 is +0.948 multiplied by 1200 = +1,137.6C and Lubos calculated -0.422 for the trend!!!!!

So we are back to either Lubos' numbers are made up, or your rationalization is asinine, or both.
My money is on both!

hahaha, I just noticed that you made a big deal about me transposing numbers. what percentage difference does it make? hahaha. you cant understand the difference between trend and temperature but you think inconsequential math mistakes done on my phone are important! rotfl

btw, the last month of data from RSS is out of range. if you want to use Lubos' code to recalculate with the extra month go ahead but dont pretend that there is a trend number in Lubos' table for it.

So then where did the 2011 5 -0.422 number you posted with the other Lubos trend values come from if Lubos didn't use months 5 and 6 from the RSS data following your ridiculous rationalization of how the trends were calculated to get it? If it is not the next month's century trend, then what is it?????

And it is quite a glaring omission that you avoided the fact that your math rationalization does not work for any other month and chose to focus on the claim that your transposing the numbers did not deviate that much from the -662.4 "trend."

How do you explain your calculations being so far off for the previous month????

This rationalization should be good.