Civil War Likely

[nycflasher]

Civil War Likely
A Coalition memo reveals that even true believers see the seeds of corruption and sectarianism in the occupation of Iraq.

by Jason Vest - April 22, 2004

As the situation in Iraq grows ever more tenuous, the Bush administration continues to spin the ominous news with matter-of-fact optimism. According to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Iraqi uprisings in half a dozen cities, accompanied by the deaths of more than 100 soldiers in the month of April alone, is something to be viewed in the context of "good days and bad days," merely "a moment in Iraq's path towards a free and democratic system." More recently, the president himself asserted, "Our coalition is standing with responsible Iraqi leaders as they establish growing authority in their country."

But according to a closely held Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) memo written in early March, the reality isn't so rosy. Iraq's chances of seeing democracy succeed, according to the memo's author -- a US government official detailed to the CPA, who wrote this summation of observations he'd made in the field for a senior CPA director -- have been severely imperiled by a year's worth of serious errors on the part of the Pentagon and the CPA, the US-led multinational agency administering Iraq. Far from facilitating democracy and security, the memo's author fears, US efforts have created an environment rife with corruption and sectarianism likely to result in civil war....

source

 

[preemptingyou03]

Democracy itself, is an experiment. Any religion can live in freedom. And after 9/11, this "push for democracy" in the Middle East is the exact kind of step we needed to take. It may be rough. It may be hard. We may lose people.

But it's worth it.

 

[preemptingyou03]

I, on the other hand, don't think there will be a Civil War in Iraq.

 

[Isaac Brock]

Originally posted by preemptingyou03
Democracy itself, is an experiment. Any religion can live in freedom. And after 9/11, this "push for democracy" in the Middle East is the exact kind of step we needed to take. It may be rough. It may be hard. We may lose people.

But it's worth it.

But if a people do not want Democracy, or at least a western-style democracy, is it still right? Successful democracy has mostly been rooted in populist sentiment.

I, unfortunately, see not enough evidence of this. At least in Afghanistan there was this real feeling of populist want for democracy. The undermining came and still comes from the old Taliban guard. In Iraq both populist Shiite movements and Old-guard Ba'ath movements seem to be against the change.

 

[preemptingyou03]

Every person is born wanting to be free. We just have to show them the values of it.

 

[nycflasher]

Originally posted by Isaac Brock
But if a people do not want Democracy, or at least a western-style democracy, is it still right? Successful democracy has mostly been rooted in populist sentiment.

I, unfortunately, see not enough evidence of this. At least in Afghanistan there was this real feeling of populist want for democracy. The undermining came and still comes from the old Taliban guard. In Iraq both populist Shiite movements and Old-guard Ba'ath movements seem to be against the change.

And I read again in today's paper that their is virtually no support for the interim government.

I forgret the poll result, but I think a poll of Iraqi's showed that less than 10% recognized/supported them. This is the evidence that leads me to believe that we all may be surprised by what happens come June 30th. How can the government be turned over to Iraq when Iraqi's don't recognize "their own" representatives any more than extremists recognize the U.S.'s right to have intervened?

Not that I give any credit to the extremists, I DO value the opinion of Iraqi civilians though.

 

[Isaac Brock]

Originally posted by preemptingyou03
Every person is born wanting to be free. We just have to show them the values of it.

Are they? What is free? Is freedom having food to eat and a place to sleep? It is to be considered equal to their fellow man? Is it to have a right to make our own destiny? Are we really born with the Western value of freedom, or is it our own societal construct?

Though I appreciate my society fully, I don't believe it is my place to say what society is best for others. To do that is, in a way, contrevening our own values of freedom.

 

[preemptingyou03]

Point taken.

It is just that, when Iraqis are given the right circumstances, the freedom they will choose is freedom we will tolerate. That's what Bush has stated since Day 1 and he won't go back on that promise.

Iraqis will not vote in a guy like al-Sadr because he isn't looking out for them.

Plus, I worked for the DIA and I can guarantee you right now that the CIA is funding pro-American Iraqis and giving money to Iraqis to vote for pro-American people.

Once we get one pro-American Iraqi in charge of Iraq, it'll be a dominio result for the years after that.

 

[Isaac Brock]

Originally posted by preemptingyou03
Point taken.

It is just that, when Iraqis are given the right circumstances, the freedom they will choose is freedom we will tolerate. That's what Bush has stated since Day 1 and he won't go back on that promise.

Iraqis will not vote in a guy like al-Sadr because he isn't looking out for them.

Plus, I worked for the DIA and I can guarantee you right now that the CIA is funding pro-American Iraqis and giving money to Iraqis to vote for pro-American people.

Once we get one pro-American Iraqi in charge of Iraq, it'll be a dominio result for the years after that.

You may indeed be right as I'm not privy to that sort of information. However, casual observation shows that the majority of Iraqis seem to want some sort of Islamist style government due to the majority Shiite population. Whether or not that government is like Iran is besides the point and the US simply would never agree to it.

However, it hard to ignore the lure a populist leader like al-Sadr has for many Iraqis. Whether or not he is a good leader or not I believe it irrelevant to the wishes of Iraqis. His anti-american, islamist stance which resonanates to a vasts portion of the population.

The US is in a terrible situation frankly. Iraqi's do not seem to want the US-backed government. Attacking radical elements only seems to strengthen the resolve of militants and solidifies support of leaders such al-Sadr. Iraqi's are not buying into or signing up for the new police and armed forces to a degree that would show a turn over in power. Regional leaders outside of Iraq are getting more frustrated at the lack of progress while not willing to help themselves causing regional unrest. Iran apparently is having a field day over the Islamist support its seeing in Iraq. International support is not increasing, but appears to be decreasing and the UN is not stepping up like it should.

I wish I could see a positive US end-game, I truly do. However, unless there is a fundamental shift in Iraqi popular sentiment or increased stability to turn them away from fanatics and towards a secular republic, I think the US is going to find themselves in a very difficult situation for a very long time.

 

[DKSuddeth]

the optimism is incredible, considering the tenuous situation there. One question though, if it fails miserably and we end up with someone worse than Iran or saddam as leader in iraq, will it have been worth it?

 

[gaffer]

Originally posted by Isaac Brock
You may indeed be right as I'm not privy to that sort of information. However, casual observation shows that the majority of Iraqis seem to want some sort of Islamist style government due to the majority Shiite population. Whether or not that government is like Iran is besides the point and the US simply would never agree to it.

However, it hard to ignore the lure a populist leader like al-Sadr has for many Iraqis. Whether or not he is a good leader or not I believe it irrelevant to the wishes of Iraqis. His anti-american, islamist stance which resonanates to a vasts portion of the population.

The US is in a terrible situation frankly. Iraqi's do not seem to want the US-backed government. Attacking radical elements only seems to strengthen the resolve of militants and solidifies support of leaders such al-Sadr. Iraqi's are not buying into or signing up for the new police and armed forces to a degree that would show a turn over in power. Regional leaders outside of Iraq are getting more frustrated at the lack of progress while not willing to help themselves causing regional unrest. Iran apparently is having a field day over the Islamist support its seeing in Iraq. International support is not increasing, but appears to be decreasing and the UN is not stepping up like it should.

I wish I could see a positive US end-game, I truly do. However, unless there is a fundamental shift in Iraqi popular sentiment or increased stability to turn them away from fanatics and towards a secular republic, I think the US is going to find themselves in a very difficult situation for a very long time.

you watch toooooo much cnn and read toooooo much of the Times. They want it to look bad so you will vote for their boy kerry.

Sadr and others like him are trying to use the same tactics used by saddam, scare the people into supporting them. He is a religious nut just like the rulers of iran. A very evil nut. sadr and the rest are being supported by iran. They control iraq, iran controls them.

Unnamed high level officials are not credible sources as far as I'm concerned. They are simply clinton hold overs trying to undermine the administration.

What ever government is set up in iraq will be pro-American. After all the lives lost it better be. We will have a major say in how things go there. And there will continue to be lots of fighting and bombings cause we are dealing with the religious nuts and they don't care who they kill. They just want the power. Kinda like the liberals in this country only more bloody.

As for causal observing. cnn will interview ten iraq's about how they feel about the US, eight of them have good things to say, two have bad things to say. Guess which two are shown on their news cast.

The iraqis can have any kind of government they want, as long as it is a secular government and chosen by the iraqis with the ability to change that government every so many years thru voting. If they can't do that then its time to make glass.

 

[JIHADTHIS]

You give Sadr too much credit. From what I've read it looks more like he has a limited number of followers (hundreds or a few thousand)and they seem to be young, uneducated punks that have latched on to his movement. If you take Sadr's funding and support from Iran away, there is not much to him. The average Iraqi has to realize (if they don't already) that he is a pawn of the mullahs next door, and he is out for his own ass. I'm not sure why you think the majority wants an Iranian style government.

The US is in a terrible situation frankly. Iraqi's do not seem to want the US-backed government. Attacking radical elements only seems to strengthen the resolve of militants and solidifies support of leaders such al-Sadr. Iraqi's are not buying into or signing up for the new police and armed forces to a degree that would show a turn over in power.

The situation is messy, no doubt. I'm not sure if they are opposed to the style of government as opposed to the fact that the country is being run by the CPA which is an occupying power.

Regional leaders outside of Iraq are getting more frustrated at the lack of progress while not willing to help themselves causing regional unrest. Iran apparently is having a field day over the Islamist support its seeing in Iraq. International support is not increasing, but appears to be decreasing and the UN is not stepping up like it should.

None of the Mideast leaders have anything to gain by a stable Iraq, just a whole lot to lose. Let's say everything works out as planned and Iraq becomes stable, with a great economy, and an all around "happy ending". You think the common people in Syria, Iran, Egypt or Saudi aren't going to see this and want it for themselves? As for the UN, they are becoming more and more irrevalant each day. The whole notion that the UN is going to save the whole situation is a fools bet. The other countries of the world (France and Spain come to mind) that seem to get off on the US facing adversity instead of assisting us will be the first ones to come crying to us when they need help. And because of who we are, we will help. (instead of telling them to fuck off)

I wish I could see a positive US end-game, I truly do. However, unless there is a fundamental shift in Iraqi popular sentiment or increased stability to turn them away from fanatics and towards a secular republic, I think the US is going to find themselves in a very difficult situation for a very long time.

Even if we didn't invade Iraq, we are going to find ourselves in a very difficult situation for a very long time.

 

[JIHADTHIS]

Originally posted by DKSuddeth
the optimism is incredible, considering the tenuous situation there. One question though, if it fails miserably and we end up with someone worse than Iran or saddam as leader in iraq, will it have been worth it?

Failure is NOT an option.

 

[DKSuddeth]

Originally posted by JIHADTHIS
Failure is NOT an option.

yet has reared its ugly head many times without being asked to.

 

[JIHADTHIS]

Originally posted by DKSuddeth
yet has reared its ugly head many times without being asked to.

Very true and unfortunate indeed. But we have to go all the way now don't you think? Rightly or wrongly a lot is riding on the outcome.

I think blind optimism is wrong but so is being overly pessimistic.

 

[Palestinian Jew]

One of the reasons I was against the war before it began was that it would create civil war between shi'a, sunni and the kurds, with some kurd vs. turkey and Iran backing shi'a fighting.

If the Iraqis aren't willing to fight for their freedom, it won't happen.

 

[Isaac Brock]

Originally posted by gaffer
you watch toooooo much cnn and read toooooo much of the Times. They want it to look bad so you will vote for their boy kerry.

Sadr and others like him are trying to use the same tactics used by saddam, scare the people into supporting them. He is a religious nut just like the rulers of iran. A very evil nut. sadr and the rest are being supported by iran. They control iraq, iran controls them.

Unnamed high level officials are not credible sources as far as I'm concerned. They are simply clinton hold overs trying to undermine the administration.

What ever government is set up in iraq will be pro-American. After all the lives lost it better be. We will have a major say in how things go there. And there will continue to be lots of fighting and bombings cause we are dealing with the religious nuts and they don't care who they kill. They just want the power. Kinda like the liberals in this country only more bloody.

As for causal observing. cnn will interview ten iraq's about how they feel about the US, eight of them have good things to say, two have bad things to say. Guess which two are shown on their news cast.

The iraqis can have any kind of government they want, as long as it is a secular government and chosen by the iraqis with the ability to change that government every so many years thru voting. If they can't do that then its time to make glass.

First off I don't read or watch either as I am Canadian and read the Global and Mail and watch the CBC and BBC. I have no opinion on Kerry as he does not affect me.

I think you underestimate the populist sentiment towards a religious government. As such there will always be friction between the coalition and a large amount of Iraqis. Given that, the ability to form a stable government is undermined much more so than say Afghanistan where there is genuine populist sentiment for the new government.

 

[Isaac Brock]

Originally posted by JIHADTHIS
You give Sadr too much credit. From what I've read it looks more like he has a limited number of followers (hundreds or a few thousand)and they seem to be young, uneducated punks that have latched on to his movement. If you take Sadr's funding and support from Iran away, there is not much to him. The average Iraqi has to realize (if they don't already) that he is a pawn of the mullahs next door, and he is out for his own ass. I'm not sure why you think the majority wants an Iranian style government.

Yes the average Iraqi should realize that, but they won't. I may indeed over estimate Sadr, but i don't think I underestimate support for people like them. Although I cannot cite any statistics, which I don't think exist given the current state of Iraq, I don't think this is a stretch of my imagination. I suppose time will be the only decider on who is right.

I don't envy the position the US is in, but I suppose they do have to see it through to its conclusion either way.

 

[DKSuddeth]

Originally posted by JIHADTHIS
Very true and unfortunate indeed. But we have to go all the way now don't you think? Rightly or wrongly a lot is riding on the outcome.

I think blind optimism is wrong but so is being overly pessimistic.

There are those of us who saw this inevitable civil war coming. We knew that the differences between the 3 sects was going to be too great for a democracy. But you are right, we are in it now and pulling out before the job is finished will have more severe consequences than we are prepared to deal with.

I see this as being our 'palestine', instead of our vietnam, and I'm not sure at this point what I'd rather have out of the two.

 

[Tippy Toes]

I think this Iraq war has gathered many terrorists together, and put them in one place. Lot easier to get at them. Also, they are over there, not here. I think it may have been a brilliant move. Whether they get Democracy, or not, we may be eliminating some future OBL.

I know someone will jump back, and say they aren't AQ, but there's more there than just Iraqi's. Democracy will be nice, but well that's up to the people. If they are chicken, then they get what they get. Some fighting will be necessary on their part.

It is a whole lot of guessing, anyway it's looked at. Hopefully, the good guessing is on our side, cause we don't deserve this.