Civil War Likely

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by nycflasher, Apr 24, 2004.

  1. nycflasher
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    nycflasher Active Member

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    Civil War Likely
    A Coalition memo reveals that even true believers see the seeds of corruption and sectarianism in the occupation of Iraq.

    by Jason Vest - April 22, 2004

    As the situation in Iraq grows ever more tenuous, the Bush administration continues to spin the ominous news with matter-of-fact optimism. According to Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, Iraqi uprisings in half a dozen cities, accompanied by the deaths of more than 100 soldiers in the month of April alone, is something to be viewed in the context of "good days and bad days," merely "a moment in Iraq's path towards a free and democratic system." More recently, the president himself asserted, "Our coalition is standing with responsible Iraqi leaders as they establish growing authority in their country."

    But according to a closely held Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) memo written in early March, the reality isn't so rosy. Iraq's chances of seeing democracy succeed, according to the memo's author -- a US government official detailed to the CPA, who wrote this summation of observations he'd made in the field for a senior CPA director -- have been severely imperiled by a year's worth of serious errors on the part of the Pentagon and the CPA, the US-led multinational agency administering Iraq. Far from facilitating democracy and security, the memo's author fears, US efforts have created an environment rife with corruption and sectarianism likely to result in civil war....

    source
     
  2. preemptingyou03
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    preemptingyou03 Member

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    Democracy itself, is an experiment. Any religion can live in freedom. And after 9/11, this "push for democracy" in the Middle East is the exact kind of step we needed to take. It may be rough. It may be hard. We may lose people.

    But it's worth it.
     
  3. preemptingyou03
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    preemptingyou03 Member

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    I, on the other hand, don't think there will be a Civil War in Iraq.
     
  4. Isaac Brock
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    Isaac Brock Active Member

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    But if a people do not want Democracy, or at least a western-style democracy, is it still right? Successful democracy has mostly been rooted in populist sentiment.

    I, unfortunately, see not enough evidence of this. At least in Afghanistan there was this real feeling of populist want for democracy. The undermining came and still comes from the old Taliban guard. In Iraq both populist Shiite movements and Old-guard Ba'ath movements seem to be against the change.
     
  5. preemptingyou03
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    preemptingyou03 Member

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    Every person is born wanting to be free. We just have to show them the values of it.
     
  6. nycflasher
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    nycflasher Active Member

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    And I read again in today's paper that their is virtually no support for the interim government.

    I forgret the poll result, but I think a poll of Iraqi's showed that less than 10% recognized/supported them. This is the evidence that leads me to believe that we all may be surprised by what happens come June 30th. How can the government be turned over to Iraq when Iraqi's don't recognize "their own" representatives any more than extremists recognize the U.S.'s right to have intervened?

    Not that I give any credit to the extremists, I DO value the opinion of Iraqi civilians though.
     
  7. Isaac Brock
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    Isaac Brock Active Member

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    Are they? What is free? Is freedom having food to eat and a place to sleep? It is to be considered equal to their fellow man? Is it to have a right to make our own destiny? Are we really born with the Western value of freedom, or is it our own societal construct?

    Though I appreciate my society fully, I don't believe it is my place to say what society is best for others. To do that is, in a way, contrevening our own values of freedom.
     
  8. preemptingyou03
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    preemptingyou03 Member

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    Point taken.

    It is just that, when Iraqis are given the right circumstances, the freedom they will choose is freedom we will tolerate. That's what Bush has stated since Day 1 and he won't go back on that promise.

    Iraqis will not vote in a guy like al-Sadr because he isn't looking out for them.

    Plus, I worked for the DIA and I can guarantee you right now that the CIA is funding pro-American Iraqis and giving money to Iraqis to vote for pro-American people.

    Once we get one pro-American Iraqi in charge of Iraq, it'll be a dominio result for the years after that.
     
  9. Isaac Brock
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    Isaac Brock Active Member

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    You may indeed be right as I'm not privy to that sort of information. However, casual observation shows that the majority of Iraqis seem to want some sort of Islamist style government due to the majority Shiite population. Whether or not that government is like Iran is besides the point and the US simply would never agree to it.

    However, it hard to ignore the lure a populist leader like al-Sadr has for many Iraqis. Whether or not he is a good leader or not I believe it irrelevant to the wishes of Iraqis. His anti-american, islamist stance which resonanates to a vasts portion of the population.

    The US is in a terrible situation frankly. Iraqi's do not seem to want the US-backed government. Attacking radical elements only seems to strengthen the resolve of militants and solidifies support of leaders such al-Sadr. Iraqi's are not buying into or signing up for the new police and armed forces to a degree that would show a turn over in power. Regional leaders outside of Iraq are getting more frustrated at the lack of progress while not willing to help themselves causing regional unrest. Iran apparently is having a field day over the Islamist support its seeing in Iraq. International support is not increasing, but appears to be decreasing and the UN is not stepping up like it should.

    I wish I could see a positive US end-game, I truly do. However, unless there is a fundamental shift in Iraqi popular sentiment or increased stability to turn them away from fanatics and towards a secular republic, I think the US is going to find themselves in a very difficult situation for a very long time.
     
  10. DKSuddeth
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    DKSuddeth Senior Member

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    the optimism is incredible, considering the tenuous situation there. One question though, if it fails miserably and we end up with someone worse than Iran or saddam as leader in iraq, will it have been worth it?
     

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