China's Slow but Steady Economic Decline is Continuing

[william the wie]

I am interested in the good and bad effects on my portfolio if these trends keep on going.

For example, is the brand spanking new Japanese-S Korean trade war likely to make the China decline steeper?

How about Trump's projected trade wars with the EU and possibly India are they worrisome?

 

[shockedcanadian]

I can't help you as I am a believer in finding great, undervalued businesses, not specific industries or nations. Though when I was interested in investing more passionately, I always invested in U.S companies. Such better investments than Canadian businesses as long as you do your homework, and I did it excessively, reading every financial statement and detail I could about the company before diving in.

So. The decline of China hinders on them not wanting to make a deal with America and deciding they will continue to try and exploit the world. If the world stands up, demands better access and less government abuses in their businesses, than China is in for a longer slow down. If they get smart and decide to become more capitalist (unlikely), they will earn more modest, but stable, reliable growth.

 

[candycorn]

So is ours….

A trade war helps nobody. Even if the alleged goal of opening more native factories is achieved (which it won’t be), the market for those factories is by definition limited by the retaliatory tariffs.

 

[william the wie]

while I sympathize with your belief Buffett continuously warns people not to invest as he does. The catch is Buffett's mentor beat the Dow by an average of 400% 1926-56, which Buffett has not done.

 

[shockedcanadian]

while I sympathize with your belief Buffett continuously warns people not to invest as he does. The catch is Buffett's mentor beat the Dow by an average of 400% 1926-56, which Buffett has not done.

Nothing wrong with being an Index investor, low to no management fees and little work to be done. Certainly been a great investment for anyone on the DOW the last 50 years.

 

[Flopper]

I am interested in the good and bad effects on my portfolio if these trends keep on going.

For example, is the brand spanking new Japanese-S Korean trade war likely to make the China decline steeper?

How about Trump's projected trade wars with the EU and possibly India are they worrisome?

Despite Trump's dire predictions about China's future if they don't come to terms with the US, China's growth rate this year after the Trump tariffs will be about 6% down only .6% over last year. While the US is China's biggest customer, US exports are only 2% of it's GDP and 81% of it's exports go elsewhere.

China's growth rate is projected to fall to as low as 4.5% over the next 5 years. The US growth rate is expected to fall to 1.8% to 2.5% over the same time period and the EU growth rate is projected at 1.5% to 1.8%. China will become the largest economy in the world in next few years even with lower growth rates.

China has many problems but they have also proved to be more than capable of handling them. The double digit growth rates of the last decade are probably gone forever, but China will still be the greatest economic power in the 21st century.

 

[Flopper]

I can't help you as I am a believer in finding great, undervalued businesses, not specific industries or nations. Though when I was interested in investing more passionately, I always invested in U.S companies. Such better investments than Canadian businesses as long as you do your homework, and I did it excessively, reading every financial statement and detail I could about the company before diving in.

So. The decline of China hinders on them not wanting to make a deal with America and deciding they will continue to try and exploit the world. If the world stands up, demands better access and less government abuses in their businesses, than China is in for a longer slow down. If they get smart and decide to become more capitalist (unlikely), they will earn more modest, but stable, reliable growth.

One of the biggest problems China faces is the same as the rest of world, lower global economic growth over the next 5 years. Although Trump tariffs are certainly a problem for China, it will continue to grow and surpass the US to become the largest economy in the world in a few years regardless of the tariffs.

I expect an agreement with China within the next 6 to 9 mos. Trump certainly needs it going into the election next year and China can easily give it too him without any real hardship. The question is will they? What Trump is asking far falls in two categories, "ain't never gonna happen and changes the Chinese are already making.

It's very unlikely that the agreement will create any major changes in the US or Chinese economy.

 

[william the wie]

China's understated problem of negative growth in LFF combined with early retirement ages 55 and 60 is starting to really bite.

 

[Picaro]

while I sympathize with your belief Buffett continuously warns people not to invest as he does. The catch is Buffett's mentor beat the Dow by an average of 400% 1926-56, which Buffett has not done.

It's a lot tougher to make 5% a year on $20 billion than it is to make 400% on $100. Diminishing returns is built into finite systems. And, when your every move is watched and copied to boot, you're lucky to break even, and have to be very very careful not to tip your hand, also a tough thing to do.

 

[Manonthestreet]

new car sales in China have tanked

 

[Picaro]

I am interested in the good and bad effects on my portfolio if these trends keep on going.

For example, is the brand spanking new Japanese-S Korean trade war likely to make the China decline steeper?

How about Trump's projected trade wars with the EU and possibly India are they worrisome?

Despite Trump's dire predictions about China's future if they don't come to terms with the US, China's growth rate this year after the Trump tariffs will be about 6% down only .6% over last year. While the US is China's biggest customer, US exports are only 2% of it's GDP and 81% of it's exports go elsewhere.

China's growth rate is projected to fall to as low as 4.5% over the next 5 years. The US growth rate is expected to fall to 1.8% to 2.5% over the same time period and the EU growth rate is projected at 1.5% to 1.8%. China will become the largest economy in the world in next few years even with lower growth rates.

China has many problems but they have also proved to be more than capable of handling them. The double digit growth rates of the last decade are probably gone forever, but China will still be the greatest economic power in the 21st century.

China's claimed growth rates are pure fiction, for one, they have no idea what it is, and in any case they have to lie in order to keep from devaluing their currency domestically. For two, our US exports being low are precisely why tariffs hurt them a lot more than they do us, so no, Trump doesn't need a deal with them, and in any case they aren't going to abide by and agreement if it doesn't suit them so it's a moot issue. If the tariffs keep going up, they lose their biggest export market profits; their only other market with significant disposable income is in western Europe, so they're screwed, and they will lose a lot more than '4.5%', yet another imaginary number you read somewhere but really have no clue whatsoever about but it's propaganda suits those who make a career out of Trump bashing and promoting the treason Party the democrats have become, so post it anyway; fake news is all there is left for democrats, so no point in trying for real credibility any more

China will implode, and decline into civil unrest and an unmanageable population crisis will wreck it yet again. It's just a police state with a lot of very rich mentors in the West propping it up with government subsidies making deals with the Chinese profitable. The trend now in the West is returning to rebuilding its domestic economies, and that will take a few years but it is both desirable and necessary. The globalists labor racketeering and money laundering 'Golden Age' is at an end; it's bankrupt and there is no longer a big tax base here that can sustain it.

If one is truly worried about the future get out of paper and into commodities that will still be in demand no matter what.

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

So is ours….

A trade war helps nobody. Even if the alleged goal of opening more native factories is achieved (which it won’t be), the market for those factories is by definition limited by the retaliatory tariffs.

The trade war is not their biggest problem ...
China has bigger domestic economic hurdles they havent been addressing for over a decade .
Well they did address one of their biggest and failed at correcting it or changing course

When china implodes be anywhere else but there

 

[Picaro]

So is ours….

A trade war helps nobody. Even if the alleged goal of opening more native factories is achieved (which it won’t be), the market for those factories is by definition limited by the retaliatory tariffs.

The trade war is not their biggest problem ...
China has bigger domestic economic hurdles they havent been addressing for over a decade .
Well they did address one of their biggest and failed at correcting it or changing course

When china implodes be anywhere else but there

You have to wear gas masks in most of the 'prosperous' regions now, and of course nobody ever bothers to root around for the hidden slums, or check out how many of those new buildings are empty and will remains so.

 

[Deplorable Yankee]

So is ours….

A trade war helps nobody. Even if the alleged goal of opening more native factories is achieved (which it won’t be), the market for those factories is by definition limited by the retaliatory tariffs.

The trade war is not their biggest problem ...
China has bigger domestic economic hurdles they havent been addressing for over a decade .
Well they did address one of their biggest and failed at correcting it or changing course

When china implodes be anywhere else but there

You have to wear gas masks in most of the 'prosperous' regions now, and of course nobody ever bothers to root around for the hidden slums, or check out how many of those new buildings are empty and will remains so.

Ahh ghost cities

GDP drivers
chinas a house of cards

 

[william the wie]

The real question is how long to implosion? Then how rapid will the implosion to a warring states period be?

 

[Picaro]

The real question is how long to implosion? Then how rapid will the implosion to a warring states period be?

You're going to have to discern that for yourself, since Red Chinese media and govt. certainly aren't going to tell you or let anybody else get enough info to report on it. Just assume it already crashed, since for all practical purposes it never actually 'boomed' in the first place; Apple or Maytag shipping itself stuff from overseas slave labor camps isn't 'trade', it's just internal company transfers. The profits go to Wall Street, not the American economy, cheap labor and no pollution controls are all China sells.