China to push aside Japan as No. 2 economy, could result in own "Lost Decade"

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Modbert, Feb 12, 2010.

  1. Modbert
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    Modbert Daydream Believer Supporting Member

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    China's growth could result in its own 'Lost Decade' - Feb. 11, 2010

    Thoughts USMB? We knew this day will come, it was only a matter of when. But what does the future hold? And are China's numbers legitimate?
     
    Last edited: Feb 12, 2010
  2. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I wouldn't bet on China's numbers being real but more importantly this year is calculated to be the lowest dependent % year in China's history. (A ratio of those 16-64 vs. those 65 or older and those 15 and younger.) A China collapse is inevitable but the timing is a mystery. However that is not good news for the US. Japan being out of the game more or less has not helped the US nor will China's collapse help us.
     
  3. eagleseven
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    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

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    From what I've read, China's economy lacks a solid core: a healthy consumer base. If China cannot successfully transform from an export to a consumption economy, it may collapse. As a majority of the country is still run by centralized planning through the communist party, we shall see if the bureaucracy can make the necessary adaptations in time.
     
  4. Kevin_Kennedy
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    Kevin_Kennedy Defend Liberty

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    I don't see how moving into a consumption economy will somehow make them better off, it certainly hasn't helped us at all.
     
  5. eagleseven
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    eagleseven Quod Erat Demonstrandum

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    It has only made us the richest, most technologically advanced human population in the history of the Earth, in half a decade.
     
    Last edited: Feb 14, 2010
  6. Toro
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    Toro Diamond Member

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    There are tremendous imbalances in the Chinese economy, and one day it will burst, and burst badly. That does not mean that China's long-term growth will be derailed. America had many booms and busts when it was a developing nation in the 19th century. China will too, and it is coming.
     
  7. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    Pretty sure it's the case that a majority of firms are managed through central planning, but that in terms of majority of output, it's, at the very least, functionally independent of the government?
     
  8. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    Because without domestic consumption, the Chinese economy is almost entirely dependent on the flows of the global economy.
     
  9. Kevin_Kennedy
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    Kevin_Kennedy Defend Liberty

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    Oh I agree that they should start consuming more of the things that they produce, but they'd have to quit buying up our debt for that. But to say that they should move completely into a consumption economy is a bit ridiculous.
     
  10. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    He's not saving they should stop saving and investing. He's saying that they need to increase their consumption.
     

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