China to overtake US economy in 5 years

[JimH52]

» China’s Economy to Surpass U.S. Economy in 5 Years? - Big Government

 

[waltky]

Mebbe it'll take 10 years now...

Bernanke: US Economy Growing Moderately
April 27, 2011 - The head of the U.S. Central Bank flung the doors of the normally secretive Federal Reserve wide open Wednesday to hold the first of three planned news conferences. Fed chief Ben Bernanke fielded questions on a number of economic issues, including record low interest rates and the nation's high unemployment.

In his first ever news conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. economy is recovering at a moderate pace. He also announced that the Fed's controversial $600-billion bond-buying program would end in June as planned. "Of course, going forward the committee will regularly review the size and composition of its securities holdings in light of incoming information and is prepared to adjust those holdings as needed to meet the Federal Reserve's mandate," said Bernanke.

The bond purchases were intended to bolster the U.S. economy by lowering loan rates and encouraging banks to lend more money. But critics worried the purchases would feed inflation and lower the value of the dollar. Bernanke downplayed inflation risks but acknowledged that the recent spike in gasoline prices is hurting consumers. "Our view is that gas prices will not continue to rise at the recent pace and as they stabilize or even come down if the situation stabilizes in the Middle East, that that will provide some relief on the inflation front. But we'll have to watch it carefully," he said.

The Fed also kept a pledge to hold its key interest rates at record lows for an extended period. Higher rates would reduce borrowing and dampen consumer spending, but it would also make companies less inclined to boost prices. Economists say as long as unemployment remains high, the recovery is likely to stay muted. But Bernanke says he's optimistic. "While the recovery process looks likely to continue to be a relatively moderate one compared to the depth of the recession, I do think that the pace will pick up over time and I am very confident in the long run that the U.S. will return to being the most productive, one of the fastest growing and dynamic economies in the world," said Bernanke.

In the past, policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve's board members were often shrouded in secrecy or announced weeks later. Some analysts see the Fed decision to answer reporter questions directly as a bold move that will allow the nation's top economist to steer discussion on the U.S. economy.

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[waltky]

Would imagine the Chinese havin' a good laugh, watchin' us do it to ourselves...

Weak jobs report sets Washington abuzz
June 3, 2011: Washington was abuzz Friday about political implications of the dour May jobs report, with Democrats and Republicans blaming each other for continued lack of progress.

The Labor Department said 54,000 jobs were created in the economy last month -- a figure that was far less than economists forecast and slower than recent months. The unemployment rate edged up to 9.1% from 9% in April. With each passing month of continued high unemployment, the stakes grow for President Obama's re-election bid. The recent spate of cutbacks in hiring could make things more difficult for the president -- who lately has been enjoying increased popularity in large part because of last month's raid resulting in Osama bin Laden's death.

On Friday morning, the White House put a happy face on the jobs figures, with White House chief economist Austan Goolsbee, calling them "bumps" in the road. "There are always bumps on the road to recovery, but the overall trajectory of the economy has improved dramatically over the past two years," Goolsbee said in a statement released on the White House blog. "This report is a reminder of the challenges that remain." But Republicans wasted little time attacking the report -- in fact, House GOP leaders prepared Thursday for a post-report news conference.

"It's clear from this morning's jobs report is that the economy is still not creating enough jobs," said House Speaker John Boehner at the news conference. "We cannot solve our debt crisis without economic growth -- and we will not have economic growth if we raise taxes on job creators and refuse to stop spending money we don't have." Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid issued a statement accusing Republicans of ignoring employment issues with their slashing and cutting mantra.

"Republicans have been distracted, choosing instead to focus on their plan to end Medicare in order to pay for more tax breaks for millionaires," Reid said. "It is time for Republicans to stop trying to force their plan to end Medicare on the American people, and work with Democrats to create jobs." Even presidential hopefuls tried to get into the mix. GOP-hopeful Mitt Romney released a statement saying "Obama has failed." "Today's unemployment numbers show that we are going backwards, and that is the wrong direction for America," the former Massachusetts governor said in a statement. "President Obama's policies made the recession worse and as a result more people are out of work."

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How the economy could break Obama
June 3, 2011: Is President Obama moving closer to a one-term presidency with every disappointing economic datapoint, unemployment report and stock market stumble?

Democrats of course hope that isn't the case, but political scientists say that in almost every election, the economy does indeed turn out to be issue No. 1. Right now, that's just flat out bad news for Obama. On Friday, a government jobs report indicated that only 54,000 jobs were added last month and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1% -- troubling signs that the recovery is wavering. And it's not just jobs. Manufacturing growth is slowing both in the United States and abroad. Home prices are in a confirmed double-dip. Consumer confidence is declining.

To top it off, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) has dropped almost 5% in the past month. It's a trend that should be setting off alarm bells at Obama's 2012 campaign headquarters. "There is a close connection between the economic data that comes out and how people feel. If bad numbers keep coming out, that is going to translate to voters," said Randy Stevenson, a professor at Rice University who studies the relationship between economic conditions and electoral politics. Voters are already making the connection.

Obama's overall approval rating has edged up in CNN polling, thanks to his performance on international issues and national security. But the number of Americans who approve of his handling of the economy is stuck at a dismal level -- only 41%. And in May, only 39% of Americans said they think things are going well in the country -- another crucial polling test. An election victory will require more. In the four instances since 1976 where the incumbent party retained the White House, an average 67% of Americans said things were going well in the month before they went to the polls.

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[lehr]

» China’s Economy to Surpass U.S. Economy in 5 Years? - Big Government

" OUR NATION BETRAYED " BY GARLAND FAVORITO

" TED SIOENG - head of red china controlled (pagoda red mt. cigarette co. ) gave 400,000 dollars to the demokrat party - after he gave them the money - demokrats helped reds get a foot-hold in u.s. market by passing anti-tobacco laws on u.s. companies " p. 277

 

[rdean]

» China’s Economy to Surpass U.S. Economy in 5 Years? - Big Government

" OUR NATION BETRAYED " BY GARLAND FAVORITO

" TED SIOENG - head of red china controlled (pagoda red mt. cigarette co. ) gave 400,000 dollars to the demokrat party - after he gave them the money - demokrats helped reds get a foot-hold in u.s. market by passing anti-tobacco laws on u.s. companies " p. 277

Growing U.S. trade deficits with China cost the United States 2.4 million jobs between 2001 and 2008 alone (Scott 2010b). More than two-thirds of the jobs displaced were in the manufacturing sector, and growing trade deficits with China are the greatest threat to the future health of U.S. manufacturing.

http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2011he...ies/11_03_30_wrt/11_03_30_scott_testimony.pdf

US Chamber of Commerce lobbyist moderated panel on outsourcing American jobs

The US Chamber of Commerce gives to the Republicans 10 to 1 and yet it's the FAULT of the Democrats? How do you figure?

 

[waltky]

Dem rich banker friends of the Repubs is the ones responsible for this mess...

Grading Obama's economic performance
June 14, 2011: If Republican presidential candidates at the debate on CNN Monday night agreed on anything, it was that President Obama is responsible for the problems in the U.S. economy.

It's clear that the economy has a lot of problems. Persistently high levels of unemployment and anemic growth has led economists on both the right and left to warn of the danger of a "Lost Decade." But how bad has the U.S. economy really done under Obama? By some measures, the economy has bounced back sharply from where it was before the start of the Great Recession. Yet other readings show continued pain.

Gross domestic product. This broadest measure of the nation's economic health shows the economy has climbed out of the canyon it fell into at the depths of the recession. The inflation adjusted reading in the first quarter of 2011 is a touch better than when the recession began in the fourth quarter of 2007. But the pace of growth has slowed in recent months, as rising energy prices and other shocks to the system, such as the Japanese earthquake, have raised fears that the economy could again fall into recession.

Still, the rebound in GDP is a prime reason that economists say that the recession ended two years ago. However, economists aren't sure how much impact Obama administration policies have really had on the economy. "The clearest thing I can say is the Obama policies probably made the recession less severe," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. "I can't say they put the economy where it is today. The business cycle recovery may have come in any event."

Jobs. Nothing is a bigger worry for average Americans and politicians than jobs. And that's an area where things have gotten worse during the past two years. Unemployment stood at 7.8% in January 2009 when Obama took office, but quickly shot up to 10.1% by November 2009. Employers shaved nearly 4 million jobs from payrolls in the first six months of 2009, before most policies the Obama White House implemented had a chance to take effect.

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Bernanke: Stop holding debt ceiling hostage
June 14, 2011: Ben Bernanke renewed his calls to Congress to stop holding the debt ceiling hostage.

"I fully understand the desire to use the debt limit deadline to force some necessary and difficult fiscal policy adjustments, but the debt limit is the wrong tool for that important job," the Federal Reserve chairman said at the annual conference for the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget in D.C. on Tuesday. Republicans have recently tried to tie a debt ceiling increase to spending cuts, as well as completely unrelated proposals. But if the debt ceiling is not raised, Bernanke said, the United States would be forced to stop payments on some of its existing obligations, possibly including Social Security and military pay.

The creditworthiness of the United States would be called into question and the financial markets could be severely disrupted, Bernanke said. "Failing to raise the debt ceiling in a timely way would be self-defeating if the objective is to chart a course toward a better fiscal situation for our nation," he said. That said, Bernanke was also firm in his call for Congress and the Obama administration to hurry up and agree on a long-term strategy for bringing the country's balance sheet back into the black. The speech reflected one of the core struggles currently facing Congress as it debates how to deal with the nation's $14 trillion deficit.

On the one hand, it's clear that lawmakers need to quickly agree on a plan to get the nation out of debt. But the economy is still on shaky ground following the worst recession since the Great Depression. Many economists -- including Bernanke -- say drastic budget cuts now could make it harder for the U.S. to recover. Sudden harsh budget cuts "might put the still-fragile recovery at risk," he said, advocating for a long-term approach instead. Bernanke specifically proposed that Congress commit to clear numerical goals and lay out specific ratios of debt to GDP that decrease over time. He cited the Bowles-Simpson plan as a possible option. That report recommends that spending not exceed 21% of gross domestic product.

The Federal Reserve's policymaking committee, the FOMC, plans to meet next week to discuss how to proceed after its $600 billion stimulus program runs out at the end of June. The most recent data show the economic recovery slowed in May, but Bernanke said in a speech last week he believes that weakness to be merely temporary, driven by shockwave's from the Japanese earthquake and surging commodity prices earlier this year. Bernanke will discuss the Fed's economic outlook further in a press conference following the FOMC meeting on Wednesday afternoon.

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[FiscalSanity]

Funny how thing don't change. 30 years ago we were sure the Japanese were going to buy up the country and the Russians were going to invade Europe and nuke the US. Turns out that all the experts were wrong in both those cases, and several articles I've read in foreign policy magazine paint a very different picture of things in China then what we're used to seeing. For example, there are 1000's of new factories that either aren't being used or that only work part time. Why? Lack of demand. They have far more factory capacity then is needed to provide all the goods they can possibly use or export, and they have a housing bubble going on in their big cities that just as bad as ours was. They also have an accounting system that encourages inflated numbers, so somehow I don't think we need to worry about them passing us quite as soon as people think. Frankly, I'm wondering when their economy is going to hit the wall everyone else's has, and what the Chinese people are going to do when they realize (just like we in the US have) that the good times won't last forever, no matter what the government says.

 

[lehr]

demokrats were pissed off big time because reagan destroyed the U.S.S.R. - klinton got even BIG TIME - he destroyed our military and built up red chinas military !
where were the useless republicans ?
there will always be communist countries as long as there is a communist demokrat party and useless republicans !

this is why we have the tea party- but i think its too late - amerika is going to crash !

 

[waltky]

Folks can't afford another mouth to feed...

U.S. births down for 3rd year; economy may be factor
U.S. births apparently have declined for a third year in a row, probably because of the weak economy.

Births had been on the rise for years, and the number hit an all-time high of more than 4.3 million in 2007. But the count has been dropping since then. Last year, it fell 3% to slightly more than 4 million births, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It's possible the decline is leveling off: The falling birth rate seemed to bottom out in October, November and December. However, it's too early to say whether that marks an end to the trend, said Paul Sutton, a CDC demographer who was the report's lead author.

The report is a first glimpse at 2010 births from state health departments. It doesn't include an actual review of birth certificates or specifics about what's going on in different groups of women. The CDC plans to do more analysis later. However, the number usually is pretty close to the final statistics, officials said. Experts believe the downward trend is tied to the economy, which officially was in a recession from December 2007 until June 2009 and is still flagging. The theory is that women who are unemployed or have other money problems feel they can't afford to start a family or add to it.

In 2008 and 2009, the only increase in births was in women older than 40 — considered more sensitive to the ticking of their biological clocks. A drop in immigration to the United States, blamed on the weak job market, may be another factor in last year's decline. "Hispanics have higher birth rates," explained Dr. Roger Rochat, an Emory University researcher who has studied fertility and abortion trends.

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Obama's Co-Chair Concurs: We Face Most Predictable Economic Crisis in History In About 2 Years
Tuesday, June 14, 2011 – Former Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.), co-chairman of President Barack Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility, said Tuesday that he agreed with his fellow co-chairman, former Clinton Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles, that the United States faces “the most predictable economic crisis in history” within the next two years.

Simpson added that the tipping point "will come when the rating agencies find out we have no plan" to seriously address federal spending and the national debt. At the Capitol Hill Club on Tuesday, CNSNews asked Simpson, “Erskine Bowles told the Senate Budget Committee that America faces the ‘most predictable economic crisis in history’ because of deficit spending and that this crisis is going to hit in about two years. Do you agree with Mr. Bowles?”

Simpson responded: “Sure. Totally. Every word. We’re linked at the hip. I don't think he went for the milk cow thing the way I did. But let me tell you, when he speaks about this being the most predictable, he knows.” “How do you think he did the balanced budget in ’96?" said Simpson. "He did that by visiting with Trent Lott, Newt Gingrich, Dick Armey. He said, 'You owe me one.' That’s how I got that done. Days and weeks in a room with Newt and Armey to get the balanced budget in ’96."

Simpson went on to further praise Bowles: “Don’t forget this guy is a wizard, and he knows the figures, and nobody can put him in a box and play sharpshooter with him. He’s just a magnificent person and he’s as honest, true as a god.” Bowles told the Senate Budget Committee in February that the United States was headed toward a financial disaster when the people now purchases U.S. debt--"our bankers over there in Asia," he called them--determined that U.S. debt was no longer a good investment.

“I'm really concerned,” Bowles testified. “I think we face the most predictable economic crisis in history. A lot of us sitting in this room didn't see this last crisis as it came upon us. But this one is really easy to see. The fiscal path we are on today is simply not sustainable. “This debt and these deficits that we are incurring on an annual basis are like a cancer and they are truly going to destroy this country from within unless we have the common sense to do something about it,” said Bowles.

More http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/former-sen-simpson-tipping-point-will-co

 

[waltky]

Granny says den American auto companies oughta be hirin'...

China Forecast to Overcome US as World’s Biggest Car Buyer
Thursday, June 16th, 2011 - A U.S. market research firm says light-vehicle sales in China are eclipsing sales in the United States and that China could become the world's biggest car buyer this year.

J.D. Power and Associates, which tracks the auto industry, said that in 2011, automakers expect to sell more than 18 million vehicles in China, which is about 40 percent more than in the United States.

The company says light-vehicle sales will continue to grow in China despite higher oil prices if its economy remains strong. It predicts that the U.S. car sales will be back to some 17 million units by 2018, but adds that by then, sales in China could come close to 33 million vehicles.

The firm says that in China, the sales will be spurred by increasing urbanization, rising incomes, growing numbers of dealers and massive road construction.

Earlier this week, J.D. Power & Associates predicted that India would become the third-largest market for auto sales by 2020, after China and the United States. India is currently the world's sixth-largest vehicle market.

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New Report Predicts China's Renminbi Will Be Among Dominant World Currencies
June 15, 2011 - A new report from The World Bank predicts that China's renminbi will join the U.S dollar and the euro as dominant international currencies sometime in the next 10 to 15 years. Some economists say is a major realignment in the global economic order, with developing countries playing a more dominant role.

The World Bank report Multipolarity: The New Global Economy focuses on the growing economic power and influence of leading emerging markets that include China, India, Brazil, South Korea, Russia and Indonesia and several other developing countries.

Half of economic growth

Mansoor Dailami, a senior economist at the World Bank says by 2025 those countries could account for about one half of all global economic growth. Dailami says a major indicator of the country’s future economic growth is the number of companies that invest and do business abroad. He says between 1997 and 2010 the bank identified 10,000 companies from developing countries involved in cross-border transactions. “That you see more and more companies from India, from China, from Indonesia, from South Africa, from Brazil, from Mexico, these companies are venturing outside in terms of the production, in terms of the investment, in terms of their financing. In short these companies are becoming multinationals,” Dailami explained.

Prominent role

Of the emerging economies, he says China is posed to play the most prominent role in setting global economic policies. Dailami says China is already taking steps to make the renminbi a dominant international currency like the U.S. dollar and the euro. “It’s a way of China diversifying its huge amount of foreign exchange risk. Right now China as I say is the second largest economy, the largest exports in the world, but China borrows and lends in a foreign currency, not its own currency,” Dailami said.

Reserves

He says China holds $3 trillion in currency reserves and as the dollar continues to drop in value, so too does the value of China's reserves. Establishing the renminbi as an international currency that reflects China's strong economic position, could protect it and other countries from fluctuations in the stagnant economies of Europe and America. The renminbi is not presently an international currency in part because China does not allow it to be converted at free market rates. But Dailami says Beijing is moving in that direction by increasingly using renminbi in international transactions and by allowing an off shore market in Hong Kong to issue bonds and banks loans in Chinese currency.

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[Zander]

It's the national debt, stupid.

 

[McNamara]

The future success of China will depend on how successfully they can make the transition from being mainly a cheap labour provider to an innovation powerhouse and high quality manufacturer.

 

[waltky]

Mullen proclaims China a world power...

Mullen: China now a world power
July 10, 2011 - South China Sea dispute could become "very dangerous," Adm. Mike Mullen warns; Stronger military must come with "greater transparency," Mullen tells China; The visit comes amid tension over arms sales and U.S. military exercises; In January, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called China a "rising power"

The top U.S. military officer declared Sunday that China "has arrived as a world power," and that previous U.S. descriptions of China as a "rising power" are now a thing of the past. U.S. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen made the remarks during an address at a university in Beijing at the start of a four-day visit. "China today is a different country than it was 10 years ago, and it certainly will continue to change over the next 10 years," Mullen told the audience at Renmin University. "It is no longer a rising power. It has, in fact, arrived as a world power." In January, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton described China as a "rising power."

"The United States is changing as well," Mullen added in his remarks, "as are the context and global order in which both our countries operate. I believe that our dialogue needs to keep pace with these changes. It needs to move from working out the particular issues and conditions of our bilateral relationship to working together to meet broader -- and common -- goals we share." The chairman touched on some specific concerns, including the growing territorial disputes over the South China Sea and its potentially huge reserves of oil and natural gas. "It is certainly the United States' expectation that these be worked out by countries ... in a responsible way, so that a specific incident does not rise to a level of miscalculation which could become very dangerous and get out of control," Mullen said.

China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan all have competing claims to parts of the 1.3-million-square-mile patch of the Pacific Ocean. A recent spate of incidents between Chinese and Vietnamese vessels in the sea has fueled a growing rift between the communist neighbors, creating strange bedfellows as Hanoi embraces closer military ties with historic foes in Washington. Mullen also noted China's growing military strength. "With greater military power must come greater responsibility, greater cooperation and, just as important, greater transparency," he said. "Without these things, the expansion of military power in your region, rather than making it more secure and stable could have the opposite effect."

The visit is part of an effort by both sides to increase mutual understanding despite the divisive issues of arms sales to Taiwan, U.S. meetings with the Dalai Lama -- who was in Washington this week -- and plans for U.S. military exercises in the region that China opposes. China repeatedly has objected to outside naval operations in areas it claims as its own territory, including the South China Sea. Vietnam and the United States recently announced a new round of joint military exercises, and the U.S. recently held joint drills with the Philippines. Mullen, in his address, called for an "enduring effort" to build the U.S.-China relationship, saying the two sides must "work from a posture of mutual respect" and think "locally and globally."

He encouraged cooperation on efforts including stability on the Korean peninsula and the safety of trade routes. "Both our nations recognize the emerging challenges of nuclear proliferation, terrorism, growing global energy demands and the geopolitical implications and stresses of climate change," Mullen said. "Therefore, our exchange must not be limited to the Asia-Pacific, but should range farther and wider, as befits our shared interests and China's increasing ability to contribute positively beyond your shores." While in China, Mullen will meet with numerous Chinese officials, including Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army Chen Bingde, who visited Washington in May. The admiral will also meet with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

Mullen: China now a world power - CNN.com