China on the Virge of Implosion?

[Tech_Esq]

Today, around 500 protesters rioted at the Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan in the Pearl River delta, flipping over a police car and trashing computers in a dispute over payoffs to 80 fired workers. Tens of thousands of factories across the region have already shut their gates.

Yin Weimin, China's Social Security minister, has revealed that employment is the Communist Party's number one concern in the downturn and said the "situation is critical". Unemployment is expected to rise from 4pc to 4.5pc by the end of the year and anecdotal reports have suggested that 3m people have already been fired in the industrial province of Zhejiang alone.

China cuts interest rates as Panic surges

There has also been reports that workers are leaving the farm fields and headed to the cities to demand jobs. It should be kept in mind that even 1% of the workforce out of work represents a HUGE number of people in a country with well over 1 Billion people.

I heard on a radio show yesterday that on one of Bush's trips to China he asked their leader what his greatest challenge was. He responded that (since they are a "command economy") he has to create 25 million jobs per year. If he fails, rioting is to be expected. As a quickly expanding new economy, what is China's role in the down turn? Are they at the end of a whip? The mature economies go down a little while China crashes violently in reaction to vastly reduced demand for goods?

 

[busara]

The mature economies go down a little while China crashes violently in reaction to vastly reduced demand for goods?

why do you think china has been buying up our debt? if our economy crashes, they lose a ton of demand for their products.

 

[Tech_Esq]

why do you think china has been buying up our debt? if our economy crashes, they lose a ton of demand for their products.

Well then, much to their chagrin, they will have to buy a few Trillion more dollars of it. Even then, I don't think they can keep us from having a recession lasting until at least the 3rd quarter of next year. They have already, according to the article, closed tens of thousands of factories.

What happens when there are 10s of millions of unemployed Chinese?

 

[Chris]

Well then, much to their chagrin, they will have to buy a few Trillion more dollars of it. Even then, I don't think they can keep us from having a recession lasting until at least the 3rd quarter of next year. They have already, according to the article, closed tens of thousands of factories.

What happens when there are 10s of millions of unemployed Chinese?

They go on the march across Asia?

 

[Tech_Esq]

They go on the march across Asia?

Not impossible, but they'd need a leader for that. They would probably have to defeat the tanks of the PLA too. Thus far, that has been a major obstacle.

Maybe they would riot for political change? An opportunity for the pro-democracy movement that was crushed in 1989?

 

[Epsilon Delta]

Maybe they would riot for political change? An opportunity for the pro-democracy movement that was crushed in 1989?

It's very possible. Though we really have no idea what would happen... It could be pro-democracy movements, or it could be the hardliners, or fascists, or anything. Could be complete chaos! The true thing is if they run out of carrots, no one knows how long the sticks are gonna work for.

 

[KGB]

China as a nation is under no threat of imploding.....most 5000 year old homogenous societies, especially those built on Confusicionistic ideals are not ripe for deconstruction.....

 

[Tech_Esq]

China as a nation is under no threat of imploding.....most 5000 year old homogenous societies, especially those built on Confusicionistic ideals are not ripe for deconstruction.....

I don't so much mean the "nation" of Chinese, but the Nation-State of the People's Republic of China.

10s of millions of out of work young men are NEVER a good thing. That's one of the primary issues feeding the Middle East troubles.

 

[KGB]

I don't so much mean the "nation" of Chinese, but the Nation-State of the People's Republic of China.

10s of millions of out of work young men are NEVER a good thing. That's one of the primary issues feeding the Middle East troubles.

maybe, maybe not....their society doesn't have the revolutionary gene in them like other societies....

 

[BlackAsCoal]

China cuts interest rates as Panic surges

There has also been reports that workers are leaving the farm fields and headed to the cities to demand jobs. It should be kept in mind that even 1% of the workforce out of work represents a HUGE number of people in a country with well over 1 Billion people.

I heard on a radio show yesterday that on one of Bush's trips to China he asked their leader what his greatest challenge was. He responded that (since they are a "command economy") he has to create 25 million jobs per year. If he fails, rioting is to be expected. As a quickly expanding new economy, what is China's role in the down turn? Are they at the end of a whip? The mature economies go down a little while China crashes violently in reaction to vastly reduced demand for goods?

If China implodes .. who will finance our wars?

 

[Diuretic]

Maybe they'll have a communist revolution?

 

[Tech_Esq]

If China implodes .. who will finance our wars?

The next sucker.

 

[Tech_Esq]

Maybe they'll have a communist revolution?

"If you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow"