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PROVOKING JAPAN
By PETER BROOKES
April 18, 2005 -- A LONG-FESTER ING Sino-Japa nese rivalry is becoming increasingly apparent. If tensions between the Asian giants continue to sky-rocket, Northeast Asian peace and stability may crumble, provoking serious consequences for American interests.
Beijing has been stoking the fires of Chinese nationalism recently, precipitating one diplomatic crisis after another. In the process, it has called into question whether China remains committed to pursuing its self-proclaimed "peaceful rise."
Last month, Beijing passed a militant "anti-secession" law directed at Taiwan. The action came just before the European Union was poised to lift its arms embargo against China. Beijing's move cooled E.U.-Chinese relations precipitously, leading Brussels to postpone any final decision to end the embargo.
In its latest attempt at "peaceful development," China is hectoring Japan over everything from history books to U.N. gamesmanship, plunging relations to their lowest point since the two re-established ties in 1972.
The latest rift is over the publication of Japan's newly-revised history textbooks. China claims they gloss over Japanese abuses during the 1931-1945 occupation. Beijing believes Tokyo hasn't properly "atoned" for the war.
The textbook release set off massive (Chinese government-choreographed) protests that included attacks on Japanese diplomatic facilities and businesses. Despite widespread vandalism, Chinese police arrested no one.
Long standing territorial disputes are erupting as well. Both Tokyo and Beijing claim a string of islands in the East China Sea, known as the Senkaku (in Japanese) or the Diaoyutai (in Chinese.)
Though uninhabited, the islands are thought to shelter significant undersea gas (and possibly oil) reserves. With China and Japan being the world's second and fourth largest consumers of energy, control of this chain is a huge deal for both.
The U.S. returned the islands to Japan, along with Okinawa, in 1972. Despite Japanese complaints, China began drilling near the islands last year. Last November a Chinese submarine was also discovered in the area, within Japan's exclusive economic zone.
The situation worsened last week after Tokyo decided to retaliate, allowing Japanese companies to begin exploration in the same gas fields. Not surprisingly, Beijing denounced the move as a "serious provocation."
China's increasing anti-Japanese sentiments have spilled over into U.N. matters, too. Beijing rejected any Japanese bid for a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) seat under recently proposed reforms of the international body.
As a UNSC permanent member with veto rights, Beijing's opposition would block a Japanese bid. While supporting India, Germany and Brazil, China claims that Japan, the U.N.'s second largest donor, doesn't have the "moral qualifications" for a seat.
China's military buildup is also spurring an Asian arms race, pushing "pacifist" Japan to reconsider its defense policy. Many of the more than 750 Chinese missiles now aimed at Taiwan are capable of reaching Japan (and American forces stationed there) as well.
Persistent rumors that the French will sell China Mirage fighters with advanced air-to-air missiles, and maritime patrol aircraft (if the E.U. arms embargo is lifted) has gotten Tokyo's (and Taipei's) rapt attention.
Japan and China will likely manage these issues in the short-term; Japan's foreign minister was in Beijing yesterday for talks. But the growing rivalry is only likely to get worse. And that would undermine regional stability and U.S. interests.
For starters, China might not pressure its ally, North Korea, back to the nuclear negotiating table. Beijing knows well Tokyo's anxiety about Pyongyang's nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.
Second, as political relations with Japan deteriorate, China is likely to accelerate its military buildup, especially its ocean-going navy. This would further ratchet up tensions with Taiwan and Japan and the U.S., which has defense commitments to both Taipei and Tokyo.
Third, China's belligerence may well force Tokyo and Taipei into each other's embrace, forming a "virtual alliance" against Beijing. This won't settle well with China at all, which considers Taiwan a "renegade province."
Washington should be deeply concerned about the growing Tokyo-Beijing rivalry. The U.S. and China just established a high-level "Global Dialogue," and when they meet, Washington must clearly register its concerns with Beijing about the prospects of Chinese adventurism or miscalculation in the region. The U.S. must also caution China that we will stand behind our Japanese ally.
Kathianne said:How quickly things can change. Personally I didn't see China as a serious threat for another 5-10 years, but their choice. I think I was mistaken:
http://nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/42867.htm
dilloduck said:Risky business indeed--but I gotta wonder. Is this the old "find someone else to hate besides the Govt" ploy? Internal matters there haven't been all that peachy.
Kathianne said:Could very well be, doesn't change the scenario however.
Kathianne said:You're on your way back out? Thought you were there through June...
:cof: funny, that's what a female bouncer at this club in tokyo said this weekend, but it was about the scar i have above my left eye now from a vicious jabComrade said:Nato Air, suddenly you seem... um.. sexy. Dammit man, change that avatar, before I mistake you for a woman! NOT
And this:Kathianne said:China's military buildup is also spurring an Asian arms race, pushing "pacifist" Japan to reconsider its defense policy. Many of the more than 750 Chinese missiles now aimed at Taiwan are capable of reaching Japan (and American forces stationed there) as well.
China's Sub Plan Menace
by James T. Hackett
http://washingtontimes.com/commentary/20050416-111825-8753r.htm
Much has been written about China's arms buildup. Perhaps most ominous is the major ugrading of Beijing's submarine fleet. The world's third-largest submarine force is training to blockade Taiwan and attack U.S. aircraft carriers.
China has long had a fleet of 70 or more submarines, but most were Chinese-built versions of Russian Romeo-class diesel vessels. Eighty-four Chinese Romeos were produced and about 35 are still operable. Those still in service have been equipped with French sonar (anything for a few francs) and, while considered obsolete, could be effective against commercial vessels and for laying mines. China has replaced 20 Romeos with more modern Chinese-built Ming-class submarines.
A newer domestic-built submarine is the Song. The first prototype failed and had to be redesigned, but the bugs seem to have been worked out. Song-class submarines reportedly are equipped with Air Independent Propulsion, enabling them to be very quiet and remain underwater for weeks. And they carry modern anti-ship cruise missiles. Song-class submarines are in production, with seven currently in service.
Last year, The Washington Times reported the appearance of yet another new non-nuclear Chinese submarine, the Yuan-class, which appears to be a completely new design combining elements of China's Song and Russia's Kilo submarines. Two Yuan-class boats have been launched to date. Over the last three years, China has launched 13 new submarines from three different shipyards.
But most notable was Beijing's purchase from Russia of four Kilo-class diesel-electric submarines, two of which are Project 636 type. These are excellent submarines, quieter than most, and have modern sensors and torpedoes. China has ordered eight more advanced Kilos, described by the Russians as "state-of-the-art Russian submarines." They will carry modern long-range anti-ship missiles, and are to be delivered by 2007.
Beijing also is improving its nuclear-powered submarines. For years China had six nuclear-powered subs, five Han-class attack submarines and one Xia-class ballistic missile submarine, which were very noisy and leaked radiation, among other problems. But the nuclear reactors have been rebuilt and French electronics and sonar equipment added. (How can France be considered anything but an enemy of the US, Taiwan, and Japan? How does France justify selling weapons to totalitarians that threaten democratic countries?) They now carry submarine-launched cruise missiles.
The first of China's newest nuclear attack submarine, Type 093, is nearing completion and the second is under construction, with two more planned. Built with Russian help, Type 093 is a major technological advance over the Han-class and will carry China's new HN-3 land-attack cruise missile.
Based largely on Russian technology, China last year launched a new Type 094 nuclear-powered missile submarine that will carry 16 JL-2 underwater-launched missiles, versions of China's DF-31 intercontinental ballistic missile. China plans to extend the JL-2's range beyond 8,000 miles and is expected to equip it with multiple warheads and penetration aids. This missile will be able to reach the U.S. mainland from China's coastal waters.
But the main goal of China's naval buildup is the ability to blockade or invade Taiwan, and prevent the U.S. Pacific Fleet from intervening. The Chinese describe that goal in detail in reports and publications. Their armed forces conduct annual exercises to invade across the Taiwan Strait and fight an aircraft carrier task force.
The United States is alert to the danger and has joined with allies such as Japan, Australia and Singapore to confront Beijing's aggressive posture. Pacific Fleet commander Adm. Walter Doran said diesel submarines carry very good weapons and provide "the capability for access denial." To combat that threat, the Navy has increased its presence in the Pacific, based attack submarines at Guam, and established an anti-submarine warfare command in San Diego.
The recent incursion of a Chinese Kilo submarine into Japanese waters energized Tokyo to improve its anti-submarine operations in cooperation with the U.S., and to say it will not be neutral if China attacks Taiwan. The Taiwan government also is strengthening its defenses, announcing on April 11 plans to mass-produce a new supersonic anti-ship cruise missile.
But Taiwan must do more. The government is trying, twice proposing an appropriation to buy from the U.S. six Patriot PAC-3 missile defense batteries, 12 anti-submarine patrol planes, and eight diesel submarines, but the opposition alliance that has a narrow majority in the legislature has twice said no.
A submarine is perhaps the best anti-submarine weapon, but Taiwan has only four obsolete submarines to face the mainland's modern vessels. Submarines also could deter China by threatening to interfere with its shipping, especially oil imports through the Strait of Malacca, crucial to sustained economic development.
Opposition parties of Taiwan, a genuine democracy, can disagree with the government. But it is ironic the Kuomintang, which Chiang Kai-shek led against the communists, has joined those who seem eager to appease a mainland regime that last month passed a law authorizing use of force against Taiwan.
Taiwan's opposition politicians should stop opposing an arms purchase needed to defend their country against the growing threat of blockade or invasion.
James T. Hackett is a contributing writer to The Washington Times based in San Diego.
thats what i was thinking. anything to keep the populace's mind off internal matters...dilloduck said:Risky business indeed--but I gotta wonder. Is this the old "find someone else to hate besides the Govt" ploy? Internal matters there haven't been all that peachy.
