China-India: Revisiting the ‘Water Wars’ Narrative

[Disir]

With China’s late-2014 completion of the Zangmu dam, the largest hydropower dam on the Brahmaputra River (known in Tibet as the Yarlung Tsangpo River), many Indian and international security experts have been warning of the coming of “water wars” between the two countries.

Those who worry about this scenario have three major arguments. First, China will face serious water shortages in the future and so will begin to divert water flow from the Brahmaputra River to its dry north. Second, this would be catastrophic for downstream countries. Third, China’s unwillingness to sign any binding agreement with downstream countries over trans-boundary rivers is evidence of Beijing’s insistence on absolute sovereignty over water, to the significant detriment of downstream countries.

While water issues could well emerge as one of the major threats to Sino-India relations given rapidly rising demand, competing water usage, and threats from climate change, the water wars narrative still seems to be premature.

No Plans to Divert Water
China-India Revisiting the Water Wars Narrative The Diplomat

You have to read through the article to get to what is preventing an agreement:
What should also be noted is that the key stumbling block to substantial cooperation between China and India on the Brahmaputra is the boundary disputes in Southern Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh in India)m since South Tibet forms a large part of the river basin. This makes any water sharing agreement impossible.

That's the problem.

 

[waltky]

Water scarcity could become source of conflict...

Water Scarcity Could Push Conflict, Migration by 2050
May 03, 2016 - The potential impact of climate change has never been just about rising temperatures.

New research says that in the next 35 years, water insecurity -- made worse by climate change -- could force migration, spark conflict and and be a significant financial drag on regional governments. The warning comes in a new report from the World Bank titled "High and Dry: Climate Change, Water and the Economy." "Water scarcity is a major threat to economic growth and stability around the world," according to World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, "and climate change is making the problem worse."

Less Water, More Trouble

As water becomes more scarce, areas where drought is not yet an issue, like Central Africa and East Asia, are likely to see a drop in the resource. At the same time, conditions in areas already feeling the pinch, like the Middle East and the African Sahel, will get much worse. The report predicts that lack of access to water will impact agriculture, health and incomes, to the tune of 6 percent of a region's gross domestic product. "Economic growth is a surprisingly thirsty business," the report concludes in its executive summary. "Water is a vital factor of production, so diminishing water supplies can translate into slower growth, that clouds economic prospects." The World Bank outlines a dangerous cycle where "episodes of droughts and floods have generated waves of migration and statistical spikes in violence within countries. In a globalized and connected world, such problems are impossible to quarantine."

Path to Prosperity

But a major element of the new report highlights how enlightened water management policies can not only mitigate the impact of climate change, but allow some regions to thrive in a drier, more challenging climate. Among the report's recommendations are to establish what it calls an "expanded water nexus," that would manage water availability on a regional level that crosses borders.

The World Banks says water insecurity, could force migration, spark conflict and and be a significant financial drag on regional governments.​

Other recommendations include expanding storage infrastructure, like dams and water tanks, as well as aggressive water recycling programs and smart agriculture that can significantly lower the water needed to grow abundant crops. These recommendations are challenging, the World Bank says, but not particularly costly. In some cases, implementing water conservation strategies could be an economic boom for some of the countries most likely to be affected. "The future will be thirsty and uncertain," the World Bank says, but the real risk, it says, is doing nothing.

Water Scarcity Could Push Conflict, Migration by 2050

 

[anotherlife]

People in power rarely respond to negotiation. This is true for most leftists. So, China being communist, we should not expect it to respond either.

 

[waltky]

Asia gonna be fightin' over fresh water?...

Asia's next major conflict will be over fresh water
Wednesday 11th May, 2016 - Nothing illustrates the emergence of fresh water as a key determinant of Asia’s future better than the drought that has parched lands from South East Asia to the Indian subcontinent. It has withered vast parcels of rice paddies and affected economic activity, including electricity generation at a time when power demand has peaked.

Droughts are deceptive disasters because they don't knock down buildings but they do carry high socioeconomic costs. Tens of millions of people in Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, Myanmar and India are now reeling from the searing drought, precipitated by El Niño, the extra-heat-yielding climate pattern. For China, the drought has created a public-relations challenge. Denying allegations that it is stealing from shared water sources or that its existing dams on the Mekong River are contributing to river depletion and recurrent drought downstream, China has released unspecified quantities of what it called “emergency water flows" to downriver states from one of its six giant dams, located just before the river flows out of Chinese territory.

For the downriver countries, however, the water release was a jarring reminder of not just China’s newfound power to control the flow of a critical resource, but also of their own reliance on Beijing’s goodwill and charity. With a further 14 dams being built or planned by China on the Mekong, this dependence on Chinese goodwill is set to deepen – at some cost to their strategic independence and environmental security. Asia’s water challenges are underscored by the fact that it has less fresh water per person than any other continent and has some of the world’s worst water pollution.

A dog walks over a drought hit plot of land in Ben Tre Province, Vietnam.​

A recent study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology warned that Asia’s water crisis could worsen by 2050. And an earlier global study commissioned by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs found that drought risks are the highest in Asia in terms of the number of people exposed. The monsoon-centred hydrologic calendar means that annual rain is mainly concentrated in a three- to four-month period, with the rest of the year largely dry. A weak monsoon can compound the long dry period and trigger drought.

The water crisis highlights the urgent need for better management of the life-sustaining resource. Rapid development, breakneck urbanisation, large-scale irrigated farming, lifestyle changes and other human impacts have resulted in degraded watersheds, watercourses and other ecosystems, as well as shrinking forests and swamps and over-dammed rivers. The diversion of sand from riverbeds for the construction boom has damaged rivers and slowed the natural recharge of underground aquifers. The current drought illustrates some of the key water-related challenges Asian nations must confront. One challenge is for Asia to grow more food with less water, less land and less energy. Increases in crop yields have slowed or flattened and the overall food production in Asia is now lagging demand growth for the first time, after the impressive strides Asia made between the 1970s and 1990s when in one generation it went from being a food-scarce continent dependent on imports to becoming a major food exporter.

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