China has a lot of Shares Selling for a lot Less than Book

[william the wie]

I'm not sure what exactly this means but it looks to me like the man in the street in China is expecting a trillion dollar hit and those that can are liquidating. I assume this is due to Trump's stated policy of starting a trade war with China. What I don't see is big upward moves in Mexico as the new cheap Walmart crap production center and that confuses me. Any theories?

 

[ZZ PUPPS]

China is an exporting nation and depends on low cost goods to do that. If tariffs are applied, their cost advantage decreases or could be eliminated entirely depending on severity. The US can crush China with tariffs and the "market" knows this.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

I'm not sure what exactly this means but it looks to me like the man in the street in China is expecting a trillion dollar hit and those that can are liquidating. I assume this is due to Trump's stated policy of starting a trade war with China. What I don't see is big upward moves in Mexico as the new cheap Walmart crap production center and that confuses me. Any theories?

Their currency could implode at any moment. They're all trying to get their capital out of China, out of the Yuan.

 

[william the wie]

The question is more about what will happen politically in China and economically in Mexico but I do agree with you.

 

[Shrimpbox]

Is china really that dependent on us? Doesn't she have a lot of money in the bank? What about her own consumer society. They do have four times the people we do. Trump isn't even in office so the perception is the reality. Who needs nukes if you can weaponize the economy.

 

[yiostheoy]

China and Germany have been sucking the blood of the USA for a long time.

A major correction by Trump could throw China and Germany into a major depression.

Bring it on.

 

[william the wie]

China and Germany have been sucking the blood of the USA for a long time.

A major correction by Trump could throw China and Germany into a major depression.

Bring it on.

The danger is a Chinese civil war with nukes.

 

[Shrimpbox]

A civil war in china. Between Taiwan and the mainland or within the mainland. I don't see the communists allowing any breakup of the monolith. I would like to suggest that pollution in china may be a greater danger to stability than external forces. I would also like to suggest that the cell phone is a greater threat to Chinese stability than external forces, no matter how they try to control it. Could it be we are getting rickshaw in front of the horse.

 

[william the wie]

A civil war in china. Between Taiwan and the mainland or within the mainland. I don't see the communists allowing any breakup of the monolith. I would like to suggest that pollution in china may be a greater danger to stability than external forces. I would also like to suggest that the cell phone is a greater threat to Chinese stability than external forces, no matter how they try to control it. Could it be we are getting rickshaw in front of the horse.

The current regime has lasted longer than the normal Chinese dynasty. Capital flight along with anchor babies, foreign homes and migration seems to be compounding. That is the normal build up to a warring states era.

 

[anotherlife]

Mexico? Could be any Latino country. Or India. But why do you buy that China would react to words of Trump instead of deeds of Trump? China is less speculative than that. Also, China is simply the final step of the worldwide logistical assembly line, and it knows it doesn't have to be, it can move along on it back and forth. If I was Chinese, I would weigh Trump's words against more of the Chinese logistics before speculating on Trump.

 

[william the wie]

The danger to China is that they used the Japanese model on steroids.

one child instead of two child policy.

Iron rice bowl was their lifetime employment policy until Deng came along.

Too much use of leverage

Then China imported other models into the basic model

Trying to establish an overseas empire and Diaspora like India's without either a strong domestic education system comparable to say IIT or any idea of how to avoid disasters like their being the financier of the Darfur disaster.

This list can be extended.

 

[Picaro]

It's impossible to tell what a Chinese company's real worth is, and their banking system sucks, so naturally unless you're a Party apparatchik with insider info you are flying blind over there. If you feel lucky you might go with some of the Singapore market's China funds for some gambling fun; those bankers and fund managers in Singapore are the best in Asia.