Cherrypicking

I am unfamiliar with US welfare. Old age pensioners are considered welfare recipients?

I remember talking about subsides with my kids. It is easy for 95 people out of a 100 to support the other 5. Not so easy for 75 to support 25.

Did your census numbers say how many people are net taxpayers compared to tax recipients? The last time I saw any figures like this the bottom half of the population were net negative. Just sayin'. I am all for taking care of people but I don't think we should demonize the people who foot the bill either.

In five years I will collect the Canadian Old Age Pension. Between paying taxes for all my pensions, property taxes, income taxes, etc, I doubt I will become a net negative taxpayer. Will I still be a welfare recipient in your eyes?
You definitely would not be considered to be on welfare. All the Social Security I'm now receiving I paid for by mandatory pay deductions I've made over decades of work since a teenager. It is not a government "hand-out" like many conservatives here feel. Social security alone is sub-subsistence level. You need savings to supplement it.

Welfare in the US is largely​
Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC)
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
Medicaid
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food and nutrition programs (SNAP) (Food stamps)

Welfare does not include​
Unemployment insurance (Very temporary)
Social Security (Old age pensions paid by lifetime salary deductions)
Medicare (Generally over 65)

Poverty trends analyst, LaDonna Pavetti:
In an "average" year, about one-half of the AFDC caseload leaves the welfare rolls. The best available estimates indicate that between one-half and two-thirds of those who leave do so because they have found paid employment.
I don't know exactly how many are in the negative tax bracket here. I believe around 45% do pay zero or less taxes. There are lots of problems looming up on how to handle the increasing subsistence level people, but that's another story.
I am unfamiliar with US welfare. Old age pensioners are considered welfare recipients?

I remember talking about subsides with my kids. It is easy for 95 people out of a 100 to support the other 5. Not so easy for 75 to support 25.

Did your census numbers say how many people are net taxpayers compared to tax recipients? The last time I saw any figures like this the bottom half of the population were net negative. Just sayin'. I am all for taking care of people but I don't think we should demonize the people who foot the bill either.

In five years I will collect the Canadian Old Age Pension. Between paying taxes for all my pensions, property taxes, income taxes, etc, I doubt I will become a net negative taxpayer. Will I still be a welfare recipient in your eyes?
You definitely would not be considered to be on welfare. All the Social Security I'm now receiving I paid for by mandatory pay deductions I've made over decades of work since a teenager. It is not a government "hand-out" like many conservatives here feel. Social security alone is sub-subsistence level. You need savings to supplement it.

Welfare in the US is largely​
Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC)
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
Medicaid
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food and nutrition programs (SNAP) (Food stamps)

Welfare does not include​
Unemployment insurance (Very temporary)
Social Security (Old age pensions paid by lifetime salary deductions)
Medicare (Generally over 65)

Poverty trends analyst, LaDonna Pavetti:
In an "average" year, about one-half of the AFDC caseload leaves the welfare rolls. The best available estimates indicate that between one-half and two-thirds of those who leave do so because they have found paid employment.
I don't know exactly how many are in the negative tax bracket here. I believe around 45% do pay zero or less taxes. There are lots of problems looming up on how to handle the increasing subsistence level people, but that's another story.

We have two systems. CPP by workplace contribution, OAP for everyone over 65 with supplements for need or clawbacks for the wealthy. Basic healthcare for everyone but limited by wait list.

Our welfare is probably like yours, used by people in temporary financial straights or disabled by physical or mental handicaps. I don't begrudge them benefits. I do get offended by those seem to think the people paying for those benefits got the money by keeping the downtrodden poor.
 
I also don't see why those who get welfare money can't actually do community work.
Fair enough. Perhaps we both agree that climate science has taken on the characteristics of a welfare recipient. Lose your individuality and tick off the right boxes on the form and you will get paid.
I really hate to belabor this off-topic sidetrack, but I really hate it when right-wingers have such a simplistic view of just who welfare recipients are.

Federal budget and Census data show that with welfare recipients,
53% of people are 65 and up.
20% of people are disabled.
18% have jobs with sub-survival pay.
9% goes to households with non-elderly, non-disabled people, without jobs.

Much of that 9% involves health care and unemployment insurance.
A small fraction of of that 9% are "welfare queens". Yet the right wing acts as though they are the majority of welfare recipients.

If you think too much money is diverted to welfare, I am not going to argue that point. But you really need to look at the wider problem of what to do with these people. "Get a job" does not answer the problem since only 9% are without a job when you subtract those who are too old to work, too disabled, or receiving sub-survival pay.
People who can't afford kids shouldn't have ten and then cry,
 
I also don't see why those who get welfare money can't actually do community work.
Fair enough. Perhaps we both agree that climate science has taken on the characteristics of a welfare recipient. Lose your individuality and tick off the right boxes on the form and you will get paid.
I really hate to belabor this off-topic sidetrack, but I really hate it when right-wingers have such a simplistic view of just who welfare recipients are.

Federal budget and Census data show that with welfare recipients,
53% of people are 65 and up.
20% of people are disabled.
18% have jobs with sub-survival pay.
9% goes to households with non-elderly, non-disabled people, without jobs.

Much of that 9% involves health care and unemployment insurance.
A small fraction of of that 9% are "welfare queens". Yet the right wing acts as though they are the majority of welfare recipients.

If you think too much money is diverted to welfare, I am not going to argue that point. But you really need to look at the wider problem of what to do with these people. "Get a job" does not answer the problem since only 9% are without a job when you subtract those who are too old to work, too disabled, or receiving sub-survival pay.
People who can't afford kids shouldn't have ten and then cry,


All kids should have enough to eat and a basic education.

Again, what pisses me off is when people think it is unfair for me to give my three children my time and resources.

I spent ten years actively supporting my local elementary school, very multicultural I might add, before seeing the light and sending them off to private school.

I am not rich but I thought it was the best choice. I may be liberal but I'm not stupid.
 
I also don't see why those who get welfare money can't actually do community work.
Fair enough. Perhaps we both agree that climate science has taken on the characteristics of a welfare recipient. Lose your individuality and tick off the right boxes on the form and you will get paid.
I really hate to belabor this off-topic sidetrack, but I really hate it when right-wingers have such a simplistic view of just who welfare recipients are.

Federal budget and Census data show that with welfare recipients,
53% of people are 65 and up.
20% of people are disabled.
18% have jobs with sub-survival pay.
9% goes to households with non-elderly, non-disabled people, without jobs.

Much of that 9% involves health care and unemployment insurance.
A small fraction of of that 9% are "welfare queens". Yet the right wing acts as though they are the majority of welfare recipients.

If you think too much money is diverted to welfare, I am not going to argue that point. But you really need to look at the wider problem of what to do with these people. "Get a job" does not answer the problem since only 9% are without a job when you subtract those who are too old to work, too disabled, or receiving sub-survival pay.
People who can't afford kids shouldn't have ten and then cry,


All kids should have enough to eat and a basic education.

Again, what pisses me off is when people think it is unfair for me to give my three children my time and resources.

I spent ten years actively supporting my local elementary school, very multicultural I might add, before seeing the light and sending them off to private school.

I am not rich but I thought it was the best choice. I may be liberal but I'm not stupid.
Well, the asshole conservatives want to give kids the opportunity to choose a good school and the libturds here call them evil. It's called vouchers, read about it. It's fkn amazing how US libturds want to suppress young poor kids
 
I know not many people give a shit about this stuff, but for those who want to learn more about dendro, you should read the comments to the latest McIntyre post on cherrypicking. even if you just read the comments by Steve McIntyre, dendrob(Rob Wilson, lead author of Wilson2016 the paper in question), Jeff ID a statistician, and Greg wiles (another author of W16), you cannot help but get further insight into this particular field of climate science.

Picking Cherries in the Gulf of Alaska
 
but I’m coming to the conclusion that the statute of limitations for applying scientific rigor to dendro papers is exactly equal the time delay in releasing data necessary to perform such analysis.

hahahahaha. astute comment from the gallery in response to -

Rob W says: NO MORE TIME SHOULD BE WASTED ON A STUDY THAT IS 10 YEARS OLD AND A NEW SUBSTANTIAL UPDATE IS NOW AVAILABLE.

Steve M says:One of the problems with saying this is that it took more than 8 years to archive the measurement data and chronologies for D’Arrigo et al 2006, so that it was impossible to comment on it at the time.

(for those who dont know the backstory, D'arrigo 2006 data was withheld from McIntyre when he was invited to be an expert reviewer for AR4. the climategate emails detailed the furious behind closed doors efforts to block any release of data)
 
but I’m coming to the conclusion that the statute of limitations for applying scientific rigor to dendro papers is exactly equal the time delay in releasing data necessary to perform such analysis.

hahahahaha. astute comment from the gallery in response to -

Rob W says: NO MORE TIME SHOULD BE WASTED ON A STUDY THAT IS 10 YEARS OLD AND A NEW SUBSTANTIAL UPDATE IS NOW AVAILABLE.

Steve M says:One of the problems with saying this is that it took more than 8 years to archive the measurement data and chronologies for D’Arrigo et al 2006, so that it was impossible to comment on it at the time.

(for those who dont know the backstory, D'arrigo 2006 data was withheld from McIntyre when he was invited to be an expert reviewer for AR4. the climategate emails detailed the furious behind closed doors efforts to block any release of data)

Funny how a release of the data, which was dodged furiously for years, reopens the hide the data methods of the AGW crowd. This simply sheds light on a paper, shoddy at best, which is used as a bases for other works.

IF your house is built on a poor footing it will crumble.. Sadly other alarmists are finding this one out first hand.
 
I also don't see why those who get welfare money can't actually do community work.
Fair enough. Perhaps we both agree that climate science has taken on the characteristics of a welfare recipient. Lose your individuality and tick off the right boxes on the form and you will get paid.
I really hate to belabor this off-topic sidetrack, but I really hate it when right-wingers have such a simplistic view of just who welfare recipients are.

Federal budget and Census data show that with welfare recipients,
53% of people are 65 and up.
20% of people are disabled.
18% have jobs with sub-survival pay.
9% goes to households with non-elderly, non-disabled people, without jobs.

Much of that 9% involves health care and unemployment insurance.
A small fraction of of that 9% are "welfare queens". Yet the right wing acts as though they are the majority of welfare recipients.

If you think too much money is diverted to welfare, I am not going to argue that point. But you really need to look at the wider problem of what to do with these people. "Get a job" does not answer the problem since only 9% are without a job when you subtract those who are too old to work, too disabled, or receiving sub-survival pay.

So by your estimation of people who paid into social security all of their lives, once drawing it are welfare recipients? And the same goes for medicare?

you really are ignorant.
 
So by your estimation of people who paid into social security all of their lives, once drawing it are welfare recipients? And the same goes for medicare?

you really are ignorant.
Just who is ignorant? You are really ignorant of what welfare is. You are drawing conclusions based on the smell of your farts. Read my post #19 on this thread. Here I will re-post it verbatim for you. Be sure to read the bold faced phrase below.

Welfare in the US is largely
Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC)
Temporary Assistance for Needy Families
Medicaid
Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
Food and nutrition programs (SNAP) (Food stamps)

Welfare does not include
Unemployment insurance (Very temporary)
Social Security (Old age pensions paid by lifetime salary deductions)
Medicare (Generally over 65)

Poverty trends analyst, LaDonna Pavetti:
In an "average" year, about one-half of the AFDC caseload leaves the welfare rolls. The best available estimates indicate that between one-half and two-thirds of those who leave do so because they have found paid employment.
 
Crick had a tread called 'where is the confession'. I keep showing him the proof and he keeps ignoring it.

I just scanned that whole thread. The only two "confessions" presented by deniers concerned a guy named "Ottmar", and a joke email from 1996.

You can't fix willful stupidity.

Being you brought up that thread as an example of deniers producing a confession, you must believe it contained such examples.

Do you consider the conspiracy theory about how Dread Lord Ottmar is forcing socialism on the world to be the "confession"?

Or is it the conspiracy theory that "a joke email from 1996 was actually a nefarious plot" that you believe to be the "confession"?
 
Crick had a tread called 'where is the confession'. I keep showing him the proof and he keeps ignoring it.

I just scanned that whole thread. The only two "confessions" presented by deniers concerned a guy named "Ottmar", and a joke email from 1996.

You can't fix willful stupidity.

Being you brought up that thread as an example of deniers producing a confession, you must believe it contained such examples.

Do you consider the conspiracy theory about how Dread Lord Ottmar is forcing socialism on the world to be the "confession"?

Or is it the conspiracy theory that "a joke email from 1996 was actually a nefarious plot" that you believe to be the "confession"?


put up the quote from me talking about 'Dread Lord Ottmar', or "a joke email from 1996 was actually a nefarious plot", and we can go from there. until then stick to what I have said.

in this thread I quoted a paper from D'Arrigo that said, "The divergence problem can be partially circumvented by utilizing tree-ring data for dendroclimatic reconstructions from sites where divergence is either absent or minimal."

a convoluted way of saying we don't use adverse data, but a confession all the same. cherrypicking for cherry pie.
 
the medical field of drug testing has stringent rules in place because without them every drug would be found to be effective. if you only include patients that received positive results and threw out all the patients with negative or non-responsive results then research would be easy and successful just about every time.

climate science has no qualms about throwing out negative and non-responsive results. trees at elevations near the tree line have been found to show the best correlation to temperature, and there are other factors such as sun exposure and water availability etc. so it is known which type of areas are likely to produce good 'treemometers'.

a reasonable proxy survey would identify the area to be sampled, the method used to measure, and the methodology to combine the results, all in advance! this does not often happen in climate science. the data is peeked at, the selection criteria are tuned to retain the best results, and the methods for combining results are flagrantly at odds to statistical rigour.



a simple method of testing the reliability of a survey is to keep a portion of the samples untested until the main study is completed, and then test and compare the sequestered samples, preferably by a different group.

another way to test reliability is to re-sample the area at a later date and see if the same results occur. this second method has happened numerous times and the comparisons between original results and the expanded results have been poor. often the revised proxy series becomes unusable for the purpose of producing hockeysticks and is abandoned. sometimes the new data is just hidden away so that the original data can be still used.
 
No, it's a way of saying don't use defective data.
No, it's called confirmation bias. And if you cannot understand that it is not sound science you simply lack the ability to think logically.


Crick, Old Rocks and mamooth think that holding climate science to normal scientific standards is unfair. Why? Because if they couldn't cherrypick then there wouldn't be anything scary enough to stampede the govts or the populace.

As Wegman showed, climate scientists are unwilling to go down the corridor and ask the statisticians whether their methodologies are defendable. Or perhaps they have and didn't like the answers they got.
 
Crick, Old Rocks and mamooth think that holding climate science to normal scientific standards is unfair.

Actually, we think you're a deluded cult hack who parrots cherrypicked nonsense, being that's what the evidence indicates. We think of you much like we'd think of an antivaxxer screaming about how bad vaccine science is. Scream all you want, but nobody has to pay attention.

Why? Because if they couldn't cherrypick then there wouldn't be anything scary enough to stampede the govts or the populace.

Then maybe you should stop your chronic cherrypicking, no? Just a thought. Of course, you wouldn't be able to post if you stopped cherrypicking, so that is a problem for you.

As Wegman showed, climate scientists are unwilling to go down the corridor and ask the statisticians whether their methodologies are defendable. Or perhaps they have and didn't like the answers they got.

Or perhaps Wegman was a fraud. Why yes, that was the case.

Wegman Report - RationalWiki

Even deniers even used to be willing to admit to that. Alas, with pickins' now being so slim in Denierstan, deniers can't be choosy about their talking points, so some of them have been reduced to embracing the 10-year-old Wegman fraud.
 
Crick, Old Rocks and mamooth think that holding climate science to normal scientific standards is unfair.

Actually, we think you're a deluded cult hack who parrots cherrypicked nonsense, being that's what the evidence indicates. We think of you much like we'd think of an antivaxxer screaming about how bad vaccine science is. Scream all you want, but nobody has to pay attention.

Why? Because if they couldn't cherrypick then there wouldn't be anything scary enough to stampede the govts or the populace.

Then maybe you should stop your chronic cherrypicking, no? Just a thought. Of course, you wouldn't be able to post if you stopped cherrypicking, so that is a problem for you.

As Wegman showed, climate scientists are unwilling to go down the corridor and ask the statisticians whether their methodologies are defendable. Or perhaps they have and didn't like the answers they got.

Or perhaps Wegman was a fraud. Why yes, that was the case.

Wegman Report - RationalWiki

Even deniers even used to be willing to admit to that. Alas, with pickins' now being so slim in Denierstan, deniers can't be choosy about their talking points, so some of them have been reduced to embracing the 10-year-old Wegman fraud.


Wegman a fraud? Hardly. His grad student put in uncited boilerplate material from Wikipedia that was mere background material. Wegman's points are unrefuted. The top echelon of climate science is an inbred group that refuses to seek out statistical advice from experts.

It is also interesting to note that Wegman's emails were released immediately while Mann's are sequestered to this day.
 
That's right, add on the email conspiracy for good measure. Obviously, every scientist that produced results inconvenient to TheParty needs to ever detail of their personal lives investigated.

As far as the refutation of the content, this covers it thoroughly. You don't have to read it, but the real scientists do read stuff like that, so they know Wegman is bad, bad science.

Replication and due diligence, Wegman style

This whole mindset here is fascinating. MBH98 was never a cornerstone of climate science, and its results have been confirmed over and over. It's not really relevant any more. But to the CultofMcIntyre, MBH98 is the one paper which forms the foundation of climate science, and if they can only discredit it, all of their enemies will fall before them. That's why they're still trying 18 years later.
 

Forum List

Back
Top