Can incumbency overcome Obama's failed Presidency, to get reelected? While incumbency is a big advantage, it can not be the only thing, just ask Jimmy Carter or Bush senior. Historically, unemployment around 7.2 or higher will probably do him in, come election time. Granted, the Left will do the usually "blame Bush"; but this falls stale upon the voter's ears because they know it is not true. People prefer to vote for "something" not against What can Papa Obama offer? Hope and Change ? Will not work, since at this point in time, people are full of Hope that administrations will Change It does appear, if things do not change, Papa Obama is done Of course, their is the "luck" factor and sometimes a day can be a "lifetime in politics"