Can Dems retake the House?

[JoeB131]

Now that the GOP is going to throw the election by nominating Romney and we are all going to have to learn to live with four more years of Obama, can the Democrats retake the House?

Maybe. Charlie Cook has an interesting article hereAll Stirred Up - Charlie Cook - NationalJournal.com, but here hare the raw numbers.

31 House members are retiring (18 Dems and 13 Republicans)
24 incumbants are "double bunked"- Two congressmen running for the same district. Only two of those are likely to produce a switch in party.
A total of 47 districts will have no incumbant at all...

Then you have massive dissatisfaction for both parties in Congress.

Now, historically, when an Incumbant wins, (as Obama will do, because honestly, Romney's a bad joke) he usually doesn't have long coat-tails in the house.

2004- Bush - +3 GOP- Mostly due to remaps in Texas.
1996- Clinton + 9 Dem
1984- Reagan +16 GOP
1972- Nixon +12 GOP
1964- LBJ +37 Dem
1956- Ike -2 Gop lost two seats despite Ike's win!
1948- Truman +75 Dem

However, the factor of redistricting combined with the fact that Romney is going to be an absolute trainwreck might put them over the top.

 

[Zander]

Still pretending to be a conservative eh Joe?

Your "analysis" is like you; vapid, shallow, and inane.

 

[JoeB131]

Still pretending to be a conservative eh Joe?

Your "analysis" is like you; vapid, shallow, and inane.

depends how you define conservative, guy.

Supporting the people who make more people dependent on government by destroying the middle class isn't "conservative".

I think the operative words for that is "Self-Defeating".

If I have rely on the government to put food on my table, I'll vote for more government. But this is exactly what Romney and his ilk do when they send the good jobs overseas to make themselves richer.

 

[California Girl]

Still pretending to be a conservative eh Joe?

Your "analysis" is like you; vapid, shallow, and inane.

That seems to sum it up.

 

[JoeB131]

Still pretending to be a conservative eh Joe?

Your "analysis" is like you; vapid, shallow, and inane.

That seems to sum it up.

Too many big words for you.

Sadly, Romney is not only going to cost us the White House, he might hand the gavel back to Pelosi...

I live in a district IL-8, that will almost definitely go back to the Democrats this time.

 

[JoeB131]

The instructive one is really 1948. Harry Truman ran against the "Do Nothing Congress" while the GOP ran Thomas Dewey, who like Romney was a loser the last time he ran, but they went with him again.

And the Democrats gained 75 Seats in an election where Truman only got 48% of the vote.

Could it happen again? Maybe. Conservatives staying home, liberals energized and a lot of flux do to redistricting?

The parelel is interesting. In the 1946 midterms, you had the GOP pick up 55 Seats, and control of the HOuse. Not unlike what happened in 2010. This was largely a reaction to the end of WWII< and people reacting to the fact that Truman was not giving back a lot of the powers the Presidency gained during FDR back. Not to mention the economic aftershocks of 16 million men mustering out of the armed forces and getting back into civilian life. But the GOP quickly squandered it's advantage.

 

[Greenbeard]

And the Democrats gained 75 Seats in an election where Truman only got 48% of the vote.

Perhaps Obama will employ a variant of "if you stay at home, as you did in 1946, and keep these reactionaries in power, you'll deserve every blow you get!"

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2WA93SCfsI]Truman[/ame]

 

[JoeB131]

And the Democrats gained 75 Seats in an election where Truman only got 48% of the vote.

Perhaps Obama will employ a variant of "if you stay at home, as you did in 1946, and keep these reactionaries in power, you'll deserve every blow you get!"

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2WA93SCfsI]Truman[/ame]

Since union power isn't as great as it was then, not sure if that would be an effective tact.

He does need to rally his base. And painting Romney as an enemy to working people would be like portraying Paris Hilton as a tramp. Really, most of the hard work has already been done.

 

[Toro]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

 

[rightwinger]

With a weak presidential candidate and inept freshmen Tea Partiers

The House is definitely in play

 

[Zander]

With a weak presidential candidate and inept freshmen Tea Partiers

The House is definitely in play

 

[Amelia]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

^^^^

If Newt runs, that will energize liberals to get out and vote. The hate for Newt is strong.

 

[Charles_Main]

Delusional Dreams of a Desperate Left. Not a chance Dems Regain the House, They should be worrying about trying to hold on to the Senate. The Republicans sweep of State Houses and Governorships last time around. Set them up to Redistrict and it will be very hard for the Dems to Retake the house for some time to come because of it.

Dems want to down play the Magnitude of the Win Republicans had At State and Local Levels in 2010 and it's effect on their Future, But they are wrong to. They got their Asses handed to them, and the Consequences will be felt for Several Election Cycles.

 

[Steelplate]

Either that Charles... or you Conservatives are overplaying 2010. I see a hell of a lot of buyer's remorse out there.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

The last two elections, we've seen the Republicans promise jobs in return for votes. People have seen President Obama deliver more than 3 million jobs while the Repubs have yet to introduce even one jobs bill. Many are suffering from buyer's remorse because the teabaggers they elected have turned out to be real duds or worse, downright dangerous.

If the Dems retake the House, it will be because the Repubs have not delivered on even one promise - EXCEPT the promise to obstruct all bills that could help the country climb out of the Bush recession.

Is there any reason to believe that will change after November? I don't think so because If President Obama is re-elected, they'll continue to sabotage the work of Congress. If crazy Newt is elected, the old timers will plant their feet in the dirt because they hate him - and with good reason. If dilettante Mittens is elected, it will be kindergarten time.

If any Repub is elected, the emphasis will not be on jobs or on the working class. Nooten Mits have said they will raise taxes on the poorest the working class while lowering taxes on the wealthy while telling us how wonderful tinkle down "economics" is.

It could get reeel interesting but I have faith in people to educated themselves and to vote FOR their own best interest and that means President Obama will serve a second term.

 

[Dot Com]

If Gingrich is the nominee, according to Brit Hume; who is no Libral BTW , yes

video of Brit Hume:
http://lonelyconservative.com/2012/01/newt-electable/#ooid=9sMWJjMzq3lhJWhAGwfUJkCaR0LAabVD

Some Republicans are voting for Newt Gingrich because they say he&#8217;s the most electable candidate. I don&#8217;t know where they get that idea. Here&#8217;s Britt Hume on Newt&#8217;s national approval ratings and how Republicans in Congress are afraid that Newt being at the top of the ticket will mean huge losses in the House and Senate.

 

[rightwinger]

With a weak presidential candidate and inept freshmen Tea Partiers

The House is definitely in play

Good point

With Obama building a huge war chest and likely to destroy either Romney or Newt in the general election, Republicans will stay away from the polls in droves

It will hurt Republicans at all levels

 

[JoeB131]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

The Establishment is worried it might lose control of the party to the Rabble. I don't think they really think they can beat Obama in any case.

Think Bob Dole vs. Bill Clinton.

It won't be a weird election at all. You'll have the unlikable guy with the freakish religion and the elitist attitude getting a beat down by a sharp, well-oiled political machine.

It's just how much damage is this idiot going to do in the process.

I do agree no matter how the Presidency and House are resolved, the GOP will take the Senate, for no other reason than the GOP only has 2 seats in play, and the Dems have 8 seats in play.

 

[Dot Com]

Which candidate are you endorsing at this point JoeB?

 

[JoeB131]

It seems the Republicans are most worried about Newt because they believe he could lose the House, not Romney.

It could be a really weird election. I expect President Romney will also retake the Senate and the House, but it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP lost the House as the electorate throws out all the bums.

If Newt runs, that will energize liberals to get out and vote. The hate for Newt is strong.

YOu don't think they are going to Hate Romney every bit as much? The problem is, conservatives are going to hate Romney, too.

Hey, remember back in 2008, when the Democrats assured us that if we just nominated John McCain, who was a nice, sensible moderate who didn't tick them off, how they might actually be caught having a drink with a Republican?

Didn't turn out that way. The villified the guy completely, and when he picked Palin as a running-mate, man, did the gloves come off. He was crazy War-Monger McCain who was going to get us into another war.

Why you spend so much time getting people who hate you to try to like you is beyond me.