Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?

[jillian]

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

 

[WillowTree]

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

Is he looking into why Illinois cannot get the military ballots mailed out on time? That's a much more important issue donchyathink?

 

[jillian]

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

Is he looking into why Illinois cannot get the military ballots mailed out on time? That's a much more important issue donchyathink?

poor willow.

thanks for your input.

 

[geauxtohell]

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

This was brought up in the last election and (IMO) was a factor in why Obama beat McCain by a larger majority than the poll margin.

Case in point; I haven't had a landline in five years. I've had a cellphone with a Hawaii number for the past eight years while living in Louisiana, Virginia, and Missouri.

I always vote, and I vote liberal.

Not accounting for cellphone-only cuts out a significant portion of the voters in the 18-30 demographic IMO.

 

[jillian]

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

This was brought up in the last election and (IMO) was a factor in why Obama beat McCain by a larger majority than the poll margin.

Case in point; I haven't had a landline in five years. I've had a cellphone with a Hawaii number for the past eight years while living in Louisiana, Virginia, and Missouri.

I always vote, and I vote liberal.

Not accounting for cellphone-only cuts out a significant portion of the voters in the 18-30 demographic IMO.

It makes sense that if it's younger people who have cell phones only; and if younger people largely vote democratic; and if those people aren't being accounted for in polling data, that the results may not be accurate.

now, it may well be that in states we think of as 'red states', the number of such voters is statistically insignificant and the results wouldn't look any different; and it may well be that in states like ny, the representatives sample is pretty close to what the cell phone only demographic would look like.

but it is an interesting question. one that's certainly validly raised.

 

[Dr.House]

I don't think the number is statistically relevent, even in heavily democrat party areas...

Of that 25% of the populatiion that supposedly has no land line, what percentage are actually registered? Take that number and subtract the number who don't actually go out and vote... Then, factor in the number of people who don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize on their cell phone.... Next, from those that actually spend their minutes on a survey, determine if the statistical difference beween D and R and I and Undecided s enough to make a difference....

Aditionally, if the claim that most of the no-landliners are young people, that is the demographic least likely to vote, especially in a mid-term election...

 

[jillian]

I don't think the number is statistically relevent, even in heavily democrat party areas...

Of that 25% of the populatiion that supposedly has no land line, what percentage are actually registered? Take that number and subtract the number who don't actually go out and vote... Then, factor in the number of people who don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize on their cell phone.... Next, from those that actually spend their minutes on a survey, determine if the statistical difference beween D and R and I and Undecided s enough to make a difference....

Aditionally, if the claim that most of the no-landliners are young people, that is the demographic least likely to vote, especially in a mid-term election...

you might be correct. but it seems to be that if a certain demographic is left out, it might be relevant in key races.... particularly close ones.

as for them not voting. that wasn't true in 2008. whether they can be fired up now is a separate issue.

if you think back to the 60's and 70's, that demographic ended a war.

 

[boedicca]

This looks like a desperate excuse.

Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).

 

[Luissa]

I only use a cell phone, and never get polled. I do have pollsters call my parents house for me.

 

[WillowTree]

I love nate silver:



Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

Is he looking into why Illinois cannot get the military ballots mailed out on time? That's a much more important issue donchyathink?

poor willow.

thanks for your input.

You are most welcome.

 

[Luissa]

This looks like a desperate excuse.

Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).

The point is the 18 to 30 crown mostly use cell phones, and have no land lines, and pollsters usually ignore cell phones. The majority of 18 to 30 crowd are liberal or vote for democrats. It is easy to see why the polls could be unbalanced.

 

[WillowTree]

I only use a cell phone, and never get polled. I do have pollsters call my parents house for me.

But do you give a shit that the state of Illinois is not going to let the military vote?

 

[WillowTree]

This looks like a desperate excuse.

Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).

The point is the 18 to 30 crown mostly use cell phones, and have no land lines, and pollsters usually ignore cell phones. The majority of 18 to 30 crowd are liberal or vote for democrats. It is easy to see why the polls could be unbalanced.

What's more important to a libturd? Getting Polled? or Getting to vote? No wait, don't tell me. I think I know.

 

[Luissa]

I only use a cell phone, and never get polled. I do have pollsters call my parents house for me.

But do you give a shit that the state of Illinois is not going to let the military vote?

what does that have to do with this thread?
Start another thread.

 

[boedicca]

This looks like a desperate excuse.

Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).

The point is the 18 to 30 crown mostly use cell phones, and have no land lines, and pollsters usually ignore cell phones. The majority of 18 to 30 crowd are liberal or vote for democrats. It is easy to see why the polls could be unbalanced.

They also are far less likely to vote.

I know a lot of people in the 30 and 40+ age range that have gotten rid of their land lines and use only cellphones for economic reasons. The poor economy is forcing this transition.

 

[Dr.House]

I don't think the number is statistically relevent, even in heavily democrat party areas...

Of that 25% of the populatiion that supposedly has no land line, what percentage are actually registered? Take that number and subtract the number who don't actually go out and vote... Then, factor in the number of people who don't answer calls from numbers they don't recognize on their cell phone.... Next, from those that actually spend their minutes on a survey, determine if the statistical difference beween D and R and I and Undecided s enough to make a difference....

Aditionally, if the claim that most of the no-landliners are young people, that is the demographic least likely to vote, especially in a mid-term election...

you might be correct. but it seems to be that if a certain demographic is left out, it might be relevant in key races.... particularly close ones.

Only if that demographic was large enough numbers AND swayed heavily to one party... Can't tell that without any underlying data... It would be pure speculation...

Quoting Gregory House, MD -- "The problem with speculation is that it makes a speck out of you and some guy named 'Lation'."....

as for them not voting. that wasn't true in 2008. whether they can be fired up now is a separate issue.

if you think back to the 60's and 70's, that demographic ended a war.

Seperate but valid and statistically relevant to your premise, whether land-line or no land-line... Presidential elections have drawn the younger voter - mid-terms - nuh unh...

 

[GHook93]

That is very interesting, but I think there are a lot of people from both ends of the isle that only have a cell phone.

I love nate silver:

Bypassed Cellphones: Biased Polls?
By NATE SILVER
On Wednesday, Pew Research issued a study suggesting that the failure to include cellphones in a survey sample — and most pollsters don’t include them — may bias the results against Democrats. Pew has addressed this subject a number of times before, and in their view, the problem seems to be worsening. Indeed, this is about what you might expect, since the fraction of voters who rely on cellphones is steadily increasing: about 25 percent of the adult population now has no landline phone installed at all.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

my fellow brooklynite raises interesting questions.

 

[Dr.House]

This looks like a desperate excuse.

Conservatives use cell phones - as well as the internet (which has surprised the left).

The point is the 18 to 30 crown mostly use cell phones, and have no land lines, and pollsters usually ignore cell phones. The majority of 18 to 30 crowd are liberal or vote for democrats. It is easy to see why the polls could be unbalanced.

Most Americans have cell phones - of all age demographics... I don't know of any 30 to 50 year olds in my immediate circle who don't have one... In fact, the 30-50 yr olds are more likely to vote than the 10-30 crowd... Those are important numbers to consider...

Without underlying data there's no way to prove any unbalance...

 

[WillowTree]

I only use a cell phone, and never get polled. I do have pollsters call my parents house for me.

But do you give a shit that the state of Illinois is not going to let the military vote?

what does that have to do with this thread?
Start another thread.

Nope! I'm trying to teach you libturds how to set priorities.

 

[Luissa]

But do you give a shit that the state of Illinois is not going to let the military vote?

what does that have to do with this thread?
Start another thread.

Nope! I'm trying to teach you libturds how to set priorities.

I will pass.