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What did Greece show? It showed no more than what Puerto Rico is showing today in the U.S. Greece is a tiny percentage of the EU economy.
See this ... then tell me how a long-term propping-up of an economy even as small as Greece's (.. never mind larger economies, such as Portugal's !) can be tolerated anything like indefinitely within the EU .. and, for that matter, why Member States should feel obliged to be a part of this crippling status quo ....
IMF tells EU it must give Greece unconditional debt relief
The International Monetary Fund has called for “upfront” and “unconditional” debt relief for Greece as it warned that without immediate action the financial plight of the recession-ravaged country would deteriorate dramatically over the coming decades.
In a strongly worded assessment, the IMF said that there was no prospect of Greece meeting the draconian terms of its current bailout plan and that interest payments on the soaring national debt would eat up 60% of the budget by 2060 in the absence of debt forgiveness.
The debt sustainability analysis by the Washington-based Fund said Greece should have longer to pay, have the interest rate on its loans fixed at 1.5%, and that its creditors should make debt relief automatic once the bailout programme ends in 2018.
The Fund admitted its proposals for easing Greece’s debt burden would not be easy for some countries to accept, because it would involve member states making a commitment to compensate the European Stability Mechanism – Europe’s bailout fund – for any losses occurred from fixing interest rates at 1.5%.
Do I understand from your argument that a subjective judgment made on the 'quality' of our Government means that we should surrender autonomy to a foreign power, permanently ?
I say again: uncertainty will always give the financial markets some jitters. That's actually all it is, right now, and says nothing for the correctness or otherwise of an outcome following a successful Brexit vote. You are trading on those 'jitters' and coming to a false conclusion about them.
I for one have made no attempt to 'shout you down' ... and, how could anyone do any such thing to you, here ? OK ... your lack of transparency regarding your agenda - and its source - is a disappointment, if also predictable. But, so what ? You can, and do, state your views unencumbered by such considerations.
On Obama ... he tried to subject us to an empty threat. By the time America's choice of when, how, to what extent, they chose to forge trading ties with us, this would come AFTER Obama had left Office, meaning he'd have no ability to enforce his threat. But such was the imperative that drove HIM, he made his threat regardless.
And you think we should be scared of standing on our own two feet, eh ? Tut tut ! We should have no confidence in ourselves, as a 'standalone' power ? We, an ex-Empire power, one that at one time heavily influenced the fate of much of this world ! Well ... the anti-Brexit side has relied on threats and scaremongering to win the day, even to threaten a possibility of WWIII, and to suggest the demise of 'western political civilisation'. They have precious little respect for us ... including our intelligence, evidently !! They have zero regard for our abilities as our own nation ! People have every right to react against such disreputable shabbiness.
I strongly suspect that it'll be - very clearly so, once the proper post-voting reviews are completed, in the media and in political circles - the 'Remain' side who we will see led us all to a Brexit victory !!
No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.
The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.
I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.
A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.
I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.
The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).
Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.
However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.
You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.
Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.
Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.
Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.
The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.
If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.
That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??
We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?
I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...
Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)
Your wording:
Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say
... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.
We deserve that freedom.
As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.
Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.
Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!
It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.
The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.
I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.
A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.
I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.
The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).
Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.
However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.
You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.
Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.
Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.
Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.
The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.
If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.
That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??
We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?
I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...
Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)
Your wording:
Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say
... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.
We deserve that freedom.
As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.
Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.
Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!
It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
The EU will not punish the UK. It has no interest in doing so. But, the UK will not have the same rights as EU states or EFTA states to the EU market, that's just a normal consequence. More importantly, the City will no longer have access to the EU financial markets. Another loss for the UK is that China will replace London with Frankfurt or Paris as their base for financial deals with the EU, for example. You have to remember that the UK economy is about the same size as Italy or France, much smaller than the German economy. Alone, the UK economy is not a major economy.
The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.
If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.
That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??
We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?
I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...
Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)
Your wording:
... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.
We deserve that freedom.
As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.
Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.
Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!
It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
You're right about many people being uniformed. However I had thought that with referenda like the Scottish one where the points were made, and yes there was nationalistic stuff, it seemed to be that the sensible message kind of got through.
Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong though.
You'd have hoped that at least the campaign would be in some way sensible, instead the Brexit people started off where UKIP left off in 2015 General Election and UKIP lost one of their two seats. So it seems strange that now people seem to have reverted to type for EU elections and will vote for whatever, it doesn't matter.
I agree with you about trade too. The UK will lose some of its power by being out of the EU and this will cost the UK.
Yes, the Brexit side have always claimed things. Their best claim is that the UK could do the "Norway option", however someone forgot to tell them that Norway is in the Schengen Zone and the UK isn't, and being in the Schengen Zone would make it harder, not easier, for the UK to control its own borders.
Some of the arguments are these:
The UK will save 11 billion pounds a year it gives to the EU.
However the UK has lost 100 billion pounds on yearly trade with the EU in the last 2 weeks because of currency devaluation which appears to have happened because of polls predicting an exit win.
Any threat to stability or confidence and the pound gets hurt. Leaving the EU would leave uncertainty for 2 to 5 years, based on estimates on how long it would take to get trade deals up. The UK might not leave the EU for at least 2 years.
Other arguments are that the UK would regain its sovereignty. Issues within this are:
Be able to control borders better.
However the reality is half of all immigration, and the most costly, comes from outside of the EU where the UK has total control over its borders.
Welfare, too many people go to the UK to get welfare, they're be able to stop this.
But why are immigrants queuing up to get into the UK? Because the welfare system in the UK is broken, but the govt doesn't fix it. Syrian refugees will still want to go to the UK, Romanians will still want to go to the UK.
It might stop a little EU immigration, but the problem is so many UK citizens live abroad in countries like Spain, France, Germany, it'd be hard to refuse a deal that continues this status quo of free movement, such as Switzerland and Norway and Iceland have.
Also, the UK government often represents the interests of others, like the Tory government. Does it make a difference who makes these laws to an individual? Often not. People don't vote sensibly in General Elections and end up with the same two every time.
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
You're right about many people being uniformed. However I had thought that with referenda like the Scottish one where the points were made, and yes there was nationalistic stuff, it seemed to be that the sensible message kind of got through.
Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong though.
You'd have hoped that at least the campaign would be in some way sensible, instead the Brexit people started off where UKIP left off in 2015 General Election and UKIP lost one of their two seats. So it seems strange that now people seem to have reverted to type for EU elections and will vote for whatever, it doesn't matter.
I agree with you about trade too. The UK will lose some of its power by being out of the EU and this will cost the UK.
Yes, the Brexit side have always claimed things. Their best claim is that the UK could do the "Norway option", however someone forgot to tell them that Norway is in the Schengen Zone and the UK isn't, and being in the Schengen Zone would make it harder, not easier, for the UK to control its own borders.
Some of the arguments are these:
The UK will save 11 billion pounds a year it gives to the EU.
However the UK has lost 100 billion pounds on yearly trade with the EU in the last 2 weeks because of currency devaluation which appears to have happened because of polls predicting an exit win.
Any threat to stability or confidence and the pound gets hurt. Leaving the EU would leave uncertainty for 2 to 5 years, based on estimates on how long it would take to get trade deals up. The UK might not leave the EU for at least 2 years.
Other arguments are that the UK would regain its sovereignty. Issues within this are:
Be able to control borders better.
However the reality is half of all immigration, and the most costly, comes from outside of the EU where the UK has total control over its borders.
Welfare, too many people go to the UK to get welfare, they're be able to stop this.
But why are immigrants queuing up to get into the UK? Because the welfare system in the UK is broken, but the govt doesn't fix it. Syrian refugees will still want to go to the UK, Romanians will still want to go to the UK.
It might stop a little EU immigration, but the problem is so many UK citizens live abroad in countries like Spain, France, Germany, it'd be hard to refuse a deal that continues this status quo of free movement, such as Switzerland and Norway and Iceland have.
Also, the UK government often represents the interests of others, like the Tory government. Does it make a difference who makes these laws to an individual? Often not. People don't vote sensibly in General Elections and end up with the same two every time.
Both of those arguments seem bogus to me anyway.
Any argument over immigration seems crazy, because the US has been battling immigration for ages on end, and the problem never goes away.
It's like pot and drugs. The only way to stop illicit drugs, is to kill people. Singapore doesn't have a drug problem, and they are right in the hot bed of drug producers and users. The reason they don't have a drug problem is because they simply kill them. You kill the dealers, kill the users, and pretty soon no one is willing to risk it.
Same is true of immigration. As long as the penalty for illegal immigration is just being sent home until you find a way back.... then it's going to keep happening, whether you are in, or out, of the EU.
And also, I find the welfare argument bogus as well. As long as you offer welfare, people are going to find a way to get it. People react to the incentives you give them.
In addition, why is it ok for natural citizens to abuse the system, but somehow if a foreigner comes, gets citizenship, and then uses it, that's bad? Years ago I had some friends that lived in Britain, and they were pot smoking, unemployed druggies, just living off the system. They did this all the years I knew them.
No problem with brits living their entire lives on welfare, but one Syrian shows up, and you freak out? Why? Between the two, one grew up in 1st world western luxury, and the other watched children shredded by barrel bombs, and people choking to death in the streets from gas attacks..... Quite frankly, I'm more apt to give the Syrian welfare than the brit.
So neither of those arguments holds any sway on me at all.
No, you don't understand correctly, which I understand, this is not a simple argument here.
The point I was making was that you said you (as an individual) would be better off with the UK leaving the EU.
I've pointed out that, in reality the difference between foreigners in Brussels making laws and British people in Westminster making laws isn't actually that different.
A person in Brussels might be thinking what is best for the people, while a person in Westminster might be thinking what's best for themselves. Or the reverse is also true. I've met politicians who are self centered and I've met ones who are extremely empathetic and put their life's work into helping people. Where they're from doesn't matter.
I'm on the left of the political spectrum, but if I were in the Labour Party I'd be on the right of that party. I disagree with many people on the left, I saw what Labour has done to the UK in some ways and seen good, and in other ways seen bad. The same in the US, the left has done some good, and some bad. The same with Germany, Austria, probably not Spain as both sides in Spain are so incompetent it's ridiculous.
The point being that political autonomy doesn't actually mean as much as people are making it out to mean, you're still being run by politicians, politicians who are sometimes good and sometimes bad, even if they claim to represent you in some way (through party affiliations, through nationality or whatever).
Yes, uncertainty will give jitters. So far these jitters have wiped 100 billion from the UK's trade. More jitters and it's going down. However a currency is worth what? Sometimes currencies are worth what people think they're worth, other times what the society can produce. If the UK produces less, and things cost more, then the pound will remain lower for much longer, if not indefinitely.
However, what I've spoken about the massive jitters that will be an almost certainty if the UK leaves the EU, and for a long period of time until the UK gets itself sorted out.
These jitters will cost a lot of people (who may have voted leave) their jobs, it will reduce their spending power, it'll make them worse off than being in the EU. The laws that might be different will hardly affect their lives, immigration won't be reduced any more than it would be otherwise, unless of course a whole load of EU citizens get kicked out of the UK and a whole load of people (who don't get polled and will be voting stay) who live in the EU will have to come back. The chances of this happening are not that great, so a lot of them will stay. The non-EU citizens won't have much to worry about, nothing changes for them anyway.
You have made attempts to shout me down, not like that other guy, I forget his name, but he's on here every day. What you have done is, as I've told you before, gone off on one about where I'm from, even after I made it clear I wasn't interested in talking about that, and I told you why. Also you've taken up the mantle of the Brexit people in saying stuff like "that's wrong".
However, you aren't like a lot of people on this board, you will discuss things, and I have had good debate with you.
Your argument about being scared to stand on your own two feet is rather a weak argument. The UK mostly does stand on its own two feet anyway. The EU is there, and it does do stuff, and make laws, however you look at the USA and the states there have far less powers than the governments of EU countries.
However the UK does need friends. It's been allied with the US for a long, long time. The EU isn't going to go away and the UK will probably still be close allies with the EU.
Look, for example, at France and Belgium. Both had bombs and terrorist attacks. Neither invaded Iraq. They were tied to the UK, US and Spain played a part too, but they had nothing to do with it, but suffered anyway. The UK isn't in a different position to that, it's part of the West, an integral part. Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say.
Someone did a look at the polls, and said that the stay camp is ahead on an average of those polls. Plus this doesn't include those who don't live in the UK, but can vote, many of whom will be voting to stay.
The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.
If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.
That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??
We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?
I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...
Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)
Your wording:
Whatever the EU does, the UK is going to be brought into it, without a say
... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.
We deserve that freedom.
As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.
Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.
Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!
It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
The fact of uncertainty generates its own jitters. A known 'Brexit' vote means that the stock market will, then, have some idea of the UK's future. They may view it favourably (as they WILL, once we start to create our new trading agreements, of course) .. or, temporarily, 'doom & gloom' may predominate. It will not last forever, though, and the markets will recover once we make the progress that we ultimately cannot help but make. There is a wider, larger, trading market out there, outside the EU. There can be no reason for our not taking full advantage of it.
If we do suffer damage post-Breit, it'll be because the EU acts to inflict that damage. In so doing, it'll absolutely prove the 'with friends like that, who needs enemies' truth about the EU. I can't say that the EU won't be spiteful. I truly CAN say, though, that the EU is a fragile edifice .. only as strong as its weakest link.
That would be -- Greece again ? Spain ? Portugal ? What further defaults will the EU know, courtesy of its 'weakest links' ? Are we better viewing that at a distance, or, tied rather more fully into the EU's crisis, being damaged by it ??
We can escape that house of cards. Or, we can tumble along with the rest of it, when future crises hit. Which is better for us ?
I agree that the idea of the UK being too scared to stand on our own two feet IS a weak argument .. it remains so, because UK citizens are made of sterner stuff ! Otherwise, there'd be no likelihood at all of our going for Brexit ... we'd just knuckle under, and all the polls would indicate that for next Thursday. And I'm sure that those on the 'Remain' side, not forgetting Obama, hate the truth of that. All their threats, all their at times ludicrous scaremongering, have NOT driven the 'leave' camp off, running for the hills. Au contraire ...
Terrorists TERRORISE .... the clue's in the name. This they will think they can do a better job with, if those they target could be said to lack a backbone. A power not afraid to fight terrorists, as we weren't in Iraq, is one they'll think twice about attacking. Weak targets are better than more stalwart ones. England could've been attacked instead of France, or Belgium. But, no. Those two countries were considered easier targets. Who's to say that future EU laws won't weaken our security interests (as they do now, with the EU's insistence on porous borders within the EU ???)
Your wording:
... perfectly describes a UK that remains tied to the EU. Doesn't it .. ? Oh, as part of the EU, we will have our ONE vote, amongst a couple of DOZEN others. Disenfranchised from the EU, we can strengthen our borders as WE choose.
We deserve that freedom.
As for the polls .. no poll proves a thing. Our own polls were incorrect about a 'hung Parliament', and consistently so, in the run-up to our last General Election. They might well be correct in hinting at a Brexit victory. But nothing is certain. Only actual voting will make it so.
Oh, as for your being 'Left Wing' .. this I didn't doubt. The penomenon of a strong pro-'Remain' arguer was less likely from a Right winger, and you, as a Left winger, will crave greater global political ties and have a contempt for national borders. This is a 'given'.
Well .. some of us want our own national identity. Yes, really. We want our own borders, subject to OUR control. We want to claw back the many billions the EU takes from us much as a 'protection racket' would. We want to cease to be obliged to bend our lawmaking to satisfy EU edicts !!
It's rather 'naughty' of us, eh. But ... there it is. Roll on Thursday, and a successful Brexit outcome !!
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
You're right about many people being uniformed. However I had thought that with referenda like the Scottish one where the points were made, and yes there was nationalistic stuff, it seemed to be that the sensible message kind of got through.
Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong though.
You'd have hoped that at least the campaign would be in some way sensible, instead the Brexit people started off where UKIP left off in 2015 General Election and UKIP lost one of their two seats. So it seems strange that now people seem to have reverted to type for EU elections and will vote for whatever, it doesn't matter.
I agree with you about trade too. The UK will lose some of its power by being out of the EU and this will cost the UK.
Yes, the Brexit side have always claimed things. Their best claim is that the UK could do the "Norway option", however someone forgot to tell them that Norway is in the Schengen Zone and the UK isn't, and being in the Schengen Zone would make it harder, not easier, for the UK to control its own borders.
Some of the arguments are these:
The UK will save 11 billion pounds a year it gives to the EU.
However the UK has lost 100 billion pounds on yearly trade with the EU in the last 2 weeks because of currency devaluation which appears to have happened because of polls predicting an exit win.
Any threat to stability or confidence and the pound gets hurt. Leaving the EU would leave uncertainty for 2 to 5 years, based on estimates on how long it would take to get trade deals up. The UK might not leave the EU for at least 2 years.
Other arguments are that the UK would regain its sovereignty. Issues within this are:
Be able to control borders better.
However the reality is half of all immigration, and the most costly, comes from outside of the EU where the UK has total control over its borders.
Welfare, too many people go to the UK to get welfare, they're be able to stop this.
But why are immigrants queuing up to get into the UK? Because the welfare system in the UK is broken, but the govt doesn't fix it. Syrian refugees will still want to go to the UK, Romanians will still want to go to the UK.
It might stop a little EU immigration, but the problem is so many UK citizens live abroad in countries like Spain, France, Germany, it'd be hard to refuse a deal that continues this status quo of free movement, such as Switzerland and Norway and Iceland have.
Also, the UK government often represents the interests of others, like the Tory government. Does it make a difference who makes these laws to an individual? Often not. People don't vote sensibly in General Elections and end up with the same two every time.
What did Greece show? It showed no more than what Puerto Rico is showing today in the U.S. Greece is a tiny percentage of the EU economy.
See this ... then tell me how a long-term propping-up of an economy even as small as Greece's (.. never mind larger economies, such as Portugal's !) can be tolerated anything like indefinitely within the EU .. and, for that matter, why Member States should feel obliged to be a part of this crippling status quo ....
IMF tells EU it must give Greece unconditional debt relief
The International Monetary Fund has called for “upfront” and “unconditional” debt relief for Greece as it warned that without immediate action the financial plight of the recession-ravaged country would deteriorate dramatically over the coming decades.
In a strongly worded assessment, the IMF said that there was no prospect of Greece meeting the draconian terms of its current bailout plan and that interest payments on the soaring national debt would eat up 60% of the budget by 2060 in the absence of debt forgiveness.
The debt sustainability analysis by the Washington-based Fund said Greece should have longer to pay, have the interest rate on its loans fixed at 1.5%, and that its creditors should make debt relief automatic once the bailout programme ends in 2018.
The Fund admitted its proposals for easing Greece’s debt burden would not be easy for some countries to accept, because it would involve member states making a commitment to compensate the European Stability Mechanism – Europe’s bailout fund – for any losses occurred from fixing interest rates at 1.5%.
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Portugal and Spain are different, I've seen first hand the changes in Spain, the benefits these countries are getting and the development. They're still weak because they lacked the infrastructure, they have major migration issues to the three big regions, Catalonia, Madrid and the Basque Country, and unemployment is a big problem. However things are changing, slowly, but surely.
The EU will not punish the UK. It has no interest in doing so. But, the UK will not have the same rights as EU states or EFTA states to the EU market, that's just a normal consequence. More importantly, the City will no longer have access to the EU financial markets. Another loss for the UK is that China will replace London with Frankfurt or Paris as their base for financial deals with the EU, for example. You have to remember that the UK economy is about the same size as Italy or France, much smaller than the German economy. Alone, the UK economy is not a major economy.
Sure it has interest.
People are predicting the EU could collapse. They're doing so in order to give power to the need to hurt the UK and make sure EU members see what happens if they leave.
If Estonia had a referendum and their argument was "The UK did really well" then the EU is more likely to fail. A "look at how bad the UK did" means the EU stays together.
The EU will not punish the UK. It has no interest in doing so. But, the UK will not have the same rights as EU states or EFTA states to the EU market, that's just a normal consequence. More importantly, the City will no longer have access to the EU financial markets. Another loss for the UK is that China will replace London with Frankfurt or Paris as their base for financial deals with the EU, for example. You have to remember that the UK economy is about the same size as Italy or France, much smaller than the German economy. Alone, the UK economy is not a major economy.
Sure it has interest.
People are predicting the EU could collapse. They're doing so in order to give power to the need to hurt the UK and make sure EU members see what happens if they leave.
If Estonia had a referendum and their argument was "The UK did really well" then the EU is more likely to fail. A "look at how bad the UK did" means the EU stays together.
Fuck me,you have been hitting the purple smarties this morning.
So were will the EU make up the 80% trade deficit it will be left with when the UK leaves. That is close to losing £800,000 billion a year for France and Germany in lost trade. The other side of the coin is the UK gains that £800,000 billion a year as we wont be trading with the EU but with the Commonwealth, China, Russia, US and India.
In reality the UK economy is the strongest in the EU and without it the EU would sink, not even Germany can hit our levels of growth in these uncertain times because they are living the EU nightmare. So much so that they are looking to implement the same rules the UK wants to bring in and curb immigration from the East.
The EU will not punish the UK. It has no interest in doing so. But, the UK will not have the same rights as EU states or EFTA states to the EU market, that's just a normal consequence. More importantly, the City will no longer have access to the EU financial markets. Another loss for the UK is that China will replace London with Frankfurt or Paris as their base for financial deals with the EU, for example. You have to remember that the UK economy is about the same size as Italy or France, much smaller than the German economy. Alone, the UK economy is not a major economy.
Sure it has interest.
People are predicting the EU could collapse. They're doing so in order to give power to the need to hurt the UK and make sure EU members see what happens if they leave.
If Estonia had a referendum and their argument was "The UK did really well" then the EU is more likely to fail. A "look at how bad the UK did" means the EU stays together.
Again, your view on currency and the stock markets isn't based on anything other that you predicting that it will be great because it suits your argument.
What do you have to back any of this up?
As for your view that a post Brexit doom will be all the EU's fault, again, you're just making this up.
The EU might put things in place to harm the UK, no one knows this, it's a possibility. However what we're talking about here are things that will almost certainly happen, this isn't about the EU doing anything, it's about how the modern world works.
The EU is fragile, but not as fragile as those who are anti-EU would have you believe. The Euro was going to fail every year for the last, I don't know how many years. But it didn't fail.
"UK citizens are made of sterner stuff", sounds like nationalist rhetoric.
Harping back to the Battle of Britain and the Blitz and all of that.
Actually Belgium and France were attacked for reasons that have something to do with these countries. The UK was also attacked, by people from the UK, as France and Belgium were attacked by people from those countries.
You've twisted what I said about the power of the EU. If the UK leaves, the UK won't have a say within the EU, but the EU will still be there. I don't think you get this point. The EU is a large entity right on every border. Its power will grow and its power will dominate, whether you like it or not. The only chance you have is to stay in and sort things out.
As for strengthening your own border and having the freedom to do that, sure. But the more the borders are strengthened, the more trade suffers.
And who is the UK going to stop coming in? The non-EU citizens the UK govt already has total control over these, so...... what's going to change? Nothing.
The EU citizens, is the UK going to stop the French, the Spanish, the Germans etc from going to the UK? Will it kick out the Poles who are a source of cheaper labour who work well? Who would the UK actually prevent from coming to the UK? Also, the immigrants will still go, why? Because the welfare system is messed up.
Again, I've made these arguments 10 times and each time you brush them off without actually saying much, just you view some utopia on the other side.
I think your biggest problem will be the same for the German people in 1990. If Brexit is successful, I think you'll find the other side is rather darker and gloomier than you could ever have imagined. Germany spent 25 years getting out of that, it was a painful process for many.
Your arguments appear to be wishes, rather than based on reality and on how things work. You're quick to brush off what I say without really considering the reality. Nothing will change your view, the truth doesn't matter, you're interested in the utopia you believe will exist, but won't happen. Facts for you are meaningless.
This is getting tiresome, to be honest.
You have no reason at all to suppose that the UK can't find its own way, be profitable, know a bright future outside of the EU, and well we both know it. Since that's the case, it obviously follows that the markets, too, IF they react against the likelihood of Brexit, do so purely through a perception of uncertainty as to the UK's immediate future.
You can say I can't know we will do well. I say you can't know we won't. And so, we'll go around in circles.
But I'll tell you something I am sure of, because we've already had a taste of this truth ... namely, the EU is only 'strong' on paper. The reality is that there are weak currencies within the EU as well as strong ones, and any of them could default. Being tied into the Euro, the Euro is weakened by any - yes - UNCERTAINTY about its future. Greece gave us a taste of the Euro's fragility ... small base though their economy has ! - if larger economies buckle, the Euro collapses upon itself as others Member States enter into a bailout action that'll cripple them all !!
If we're in the EU, we'll be part of a sinking ship. If we're not, we'll just know some turbulence from the financial waves a sinking EU will create.
On 23rd June, we can contrive to build ourselves the life-raft of being UNtethered to the EU. Or, we can stay aboard the ship, and sink with it instead, once the crisis (or series of them) hits.
It's our choice. Survival (and eventual enviable prosperity) .. or ... ruination. No, not like the 'WWIII is in prospect', or 'it'll spell the end of western political civilisation if we leave' scaremongering rot, that stuff borne of sheer desperation. Nope. we'll be ruined by being closely tied to failing economies ... needlessly so.
I say ... we can find our backbone, be a proud nation, make our own future. Or, we can sink out of sight if / when the EU goes belly-up, as Greece has already shown us it COULD.
Our choice.
Let's make it a wise one.
And consider. Much of the scaremongering fantasist stuff, extremist claims, have come from people who PERMITTED US THE MEANS TO LEAVE THE EU. Now, would they have granted us a Referendum, if it could spell doom and gloom for us if we chose the Brexit route ? Why not just deny us all the Referendum and ensure our so-called 'rosy future', if in fact that was the only way we could have one ???
Yes, it's getting tiresome.
I didn't say the UK couldn't find its own way. I didn't say the UK couldn't make a profit.
A profit could be 1p or 100 billion pounds. Which is better?
It's CLEAR the UK is going to lose a lot of money if it decides to leave the EU. You've not argued against this once when I've presented this.
Finding your own way, well tramps find their own way, and millionaires find their own way too. So, "finding your own way" is just rhetoric that doesn't actually mean anything. Every country finds its own way.
Yes, we can go around in circles. What I've done is look at what is happening, what has happened and then put this onto the future to make a prediction. Sometimes predictions are not 100% accurate, but they help to make a good decision. As I've said, the economy will go downhill, the pound will lose value, Germany had a vote in 1990 and they went for the flowers and got the shit.
You've provided me with nothing. You're not basing your argument on history (which repeats itself time and time and time again), you're just painting a picture of what you want to happen, just like Helmut Kohl.
The EU is only strong on paper? I disagree with you.
In the world the major powers are Russia, China, the USA and the EU. Russia is a weak power, China is a developing power, the US is a dwindling power, the EU is a developing power. None of them are perfect, each has their flaws, and the EU has its flaws. In fact one of the flaws is that there are some who would have the EU as a superpower, I believe this is a mistake. Superpowers are known for being arrogant and problematic for others. The EU should try and have power of unity, but also the intelligence of separation, such as the US tried to have but has failed.
The UK leaving the EU will lead to an EU superpower.
The EU isn't a sinking ship. It has problems, it's learning. The USA had 109 years of slavery before a big civil war allowed for the situation where it could be outlawed, then it had segregation for 89 years before an unelected body, the Supreme Court, could outlaw that too. It's had 239 years of gay people being suppressed. It had 100 something years of women not being able to vote. It's seen the great depression which helped lead to WW2. The US suffered a lot in its history and yet still came out as a Superpower, first as one of two, then as one of one. And even as the world superpower it has major, MAJOR problems, electing leaders like Dubya, and a place where Trump can get the nomination for the Republicans.
Nothing is perfect. However the EU is developing, it's taken in many countries only 14 years after they left the Soviet Union or the Warsaw Pact and they were struggling. Yet their economies are growing and they're prospering in the EU and within time they will be much stronger.
Estonia's GDP
Latvia's GDP
Hungary's GDP
All these countries are growing and growing well. Greece is a problem country. Spain and Portugal are issues because they rely heavily on tourism, like Greece, but they're also developing.
The EU is growing stronger.
You say "let's make a wise choice", wise choices are based on knowledge. I have the feeling that most people who will vote won't have enough knowledge, and most people who vote Brexit won't really know what the potential problems will be. Just as the Germans wanted to make a wise choice in 1990, and they made a massive mess of it.
First off, no group votes based on knowledge. An individual might vote based on knowledge, but a group inherently has a minority of informed people, and a majority of ignorant.
That's one of the reasons Democracies have always failed.
Now in general, economically speaking, the group that is most able to trade with others, ends up being the most wealthy. Economic growth at it's bare fundamental, is people trading. By trading, I mean any kind of trade, whether stuff for stuff, or stuff for dollars, or stuff for gold, or anything.
The group most able to trade... ends up being the most wealthy. Now as it relates to Brexit, the case for me is, will being in the EU promote trade or harm it? Will being out of the EU, promote trade or harm it?
I openly admit that the only reason I even know about the EU referendum, is because I watch SkyNews on my Apple TV. And from what I have heard on SkyNews, the main argument from the Out Campaign, is that all the trade deals with Europe will remain in place.
But I find that argument a bit... questionable. If there is one thing I know from years of watching politicians with egos, it's that they easily take things as snubs, and they rarely forget.
If the Brits ditch the EU, regardless of if they should.... some EU leader will take it personally. Especially after working so hard to keep Greece in the EU, for the Brits to walk away, will come as a massive blow.
Additionally, if Brexit passes, the PMs will have a huge massive incentive to make sure those trade deals stay in place, and not rock the economy. If that were to happen, after promising it wouldn't, it would spell the end of nearly all pro-Out campaigners, and severely damage the party that promoted it.
So the PMs will have tremendous pressure to keep the trade deals they have, and the EU politicians will know that going into negotiations.
In short it will become extremely easy to get massive concessions from the Brit PMs, that benefit the EU, in exchange for maintaining trade deals with the EU.
The reason the fiscal markets in the UK are in turmoil, is because the EU, without the UK, is the largest consumer market in the world. Larger than the US, China, Japan, and any other.
If something happens to trade with the EU, yes it will harm the EU somewhat.... true. But it will devastate the UK. Can you recover? Sure. But remember what happened during the protectionist era in the US? Great Depression? Lasted 2 decades? Didn't really recover until the late 1940s, early 1950s.
And why did it recover? Tons of trade with Europe.
So I'm not convinced either way, but I would wager the risks are higher with leaving, than staying.
Is there a threat of destruction staying in the EU? I doubt it. Generally I doubt it. Honestly, if there was any real danger of the EU somehow sinking the UK.... you could just leave the EU when it happens. You can leave at any time. No one is going to land tanks on British soil if you leave in the future.
You do realize the entire success of the American project, is entirely due to the fact we have a 3 Million square mile free-trade zone, with common laws. The only reason we are a super power today in the world, is due to this free-trade setup we have.
You're right about many people being uniformed. However I had thought that with referenda like the Scottish one where the points were made, and yes there was nationalistic stuff, it seemed to be that the sensible message kind of got through.
Maybe I'm looking at it all wrong though.
You'd have hoped that at least the campaign would be in some way sensible, instead the Brexit people started off where UKIP left off in 2015 General Election and UKIP lost one of their two seats. So it seems strange that now people seem to have reverted to type for EU elections and will vote for whatever, it doesn't matter.
I agree with you about trade too. The UK will lose some of its power by being out of the EU and this will cost the UK.
Yes, the Brexit side have always claimed things. Their best claim is that the UK could do the "Norway option", however someone forgot to tell them that Norway is in the Schengen Zone and the UK isn't, and being in the Schengen Zone would make it harder, not easier, for the UK to control its own borders.
Some of the arguments are these:
The UK will save 11 billion pounds a year it gives to the EU.
However the UK has lost 100 billion pounds on yearly trade with the EU in the last 2 weeks because of currency devaluation which appears to have happened because of polls predicting an exit win.
Any threat to stability or confidence and the pound gets hurt. Leaving the EU would leave uncertainty for 2 to 5 years, based on estimates on how long it would take to get trade deals up. The UK might not leave the EU for at least 2 years.
Other arguments are that the UK would regain its sovereignty. Issues within this are:
Be able to control borders better.
However the reality is half of all immigration, and the most costly, comes from outside of the EU where the UK has total control over its borders.
Welfare, too many people go to the UK to get welfare, they're be able to stop this.
But why are immigrants queuing up to get into the UK? Because the welfare system in the UK is broken, but the govt doesn't fix it. Syrian refugees will still want to go to the UK, Romanians will still want to go to the UK.
It might stop a little EU immigration, but the problem is so many UK citizens live abroad in countries like Spain, France, Germany, it'd be hard to refuse a deal that continues this status quo of free movement, such as Switzerland and Norway and Iceland have.
Also, the UK government often represents the interests of others, like the Tory government. Does it make a difference who makes these laws to an individual? Often not. People don't vote sensibly in General Elections and end up with the same two every time.
Both of those arguments seem bogus to me anyway.
Any argument over immigration seems crazy, because the US has been battling immigration for ages on end, and the problem never goes away.
It's like pot and drugs. The only way to stop illicit drugs, is to kill people. Singapore doesn't have a drug problem, and they are right in the hot bed of drug producers and users. The reason they don't have a drug problem is because they simply kill them. You kill the dealers, kill the users, and pretty soon no one is willing to risk it.
Same is true of immigration. As long as the penalty for illegal immigration is just being sent home until you find a way back.... then it's going to keep happening, whether you are in, or out, of the EU.
And also, I find the welfare argument bogus as well. As long as you offer welfare, people are going to find a way to get it. People react to the incentives you give them.
In addition, why is it ok for natural citizens to abuse the system, but somehow if a foreigner comes, gets citizenship, and then uses it, that's bad? Years ago I had some friends that lived in Britain, and they were pot smoking, unemployed druggies, just living off the system. They did this all the years I knew them.
No problem with brits living their entire lives on welfare, but one Syrian shows up, and you freak out? Why? Between the two, one grew up in 1st world western luxury, and the other watched children shredded by barrel bombs, and people choking to death in the streets from gas attacks..... Quite frankly, I'm more apt to give the Syrian welfare than the brit.
So neither of those arguments holds any sway on me at all.
The EU will not punish the UK. It has no interest in doing so. But, the UK will not have the same rights as EU states or EFTA states to the EU market, that's just a normal consequence. More importantly, the City will no longer have access to the EU financial markets. Another loss for the UK is that China will replace London with Frankfurt or Paris as their base for financial deals with the EU, for example. You have to remember that the UK economy is about the same size as Italy or France, much smaller than the German economy. Alone, the UK economy is not a major economy.
Sure it has interest.
People are predicting the EU could collapse. They're doing so in order to give power to the need to hurt the UK and make sure EU members see what happens if they leave.
If Estonia had a referendum and their argument was "The UK did really well" then the EU is more likely to fail. A "look at how bad the UK did" means the EU stays together.
Fuck me,you have been hitting the purple smarties this morning.
So were will the EU make up the 80% trade deficit it will be left with when the UK leaves. That is close to losing £800,000 billion a year for France and Germany in lost trade. The other side of the coin is the UK gains that £800,000 billion a year as we wont be trading with the EU but with the Commonwealth, China, Russia, US and India.
In reality the UK economy is the strongest in the EU and without it the EU would sink, not even Germany can hit our levels of growth in these uncertain times because they are living the EU nightmare. So much so that they are looking to implement the same rules the UK wants to bring in and curb immigration from the East.
What did Greece show? It showed no more than what Puerto Rico is showing today in the U.S. Greece is a tiny percentage of the EU economy.
See this ... then tell me how a long-term propping-up of an economy even as small as Greece's (.. never mind larger economies, such as Portugal's !) can be tolerated anything like indefinitely within the EU .. and, for that matter, why Member States should feel obliged to be a part of this crippling status quo ....
IMF tells EU it must give Greece unconditional debt relief
The International Monetary Fund has called for “upfront” and “unconditional” debt relief for Greece as it warned that without immediate action the financial plight of the recession-ravaged country would deteriorate dramatically over the coming decades.
In a strongly worded assessment, the IMF said that there was no prospect of Greece meeting the draconian terms of its current bailout plan and that interest payments on the soaring national debt would eat up 60% of the budget by 2060 in the absence of debt forgiveness.
The debt sustainability analysis by the Washington-based Fund said Greece should have longer to pay, have the interest rate on its loans fixed at 1.5%, and that its creditors should make debt relief automatic once the bailout programme ends in 2018.
The Fund admitted its proposals for easing Greece’s debt burden would not be easy for some countries to accept, because it would involve member states making a commitment to compensate the European Stability Mechanism – Europe’s bailout fund – for any losses occurred from fixing interest rates at 1.5%.
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro. Portugal and Spain are different, I've seen first hand the changes in Spain, the benefits these countries are getting and the development. They're still weak because they lacked the infrastructure, they have major migration issues to the three big regions, Catalonia, Madrid and the Basque Country, and unemployment is a big problem. However things are changing, slowly, but surely.
Not enough is made about the effect that the EU has had in the poorer areas of Europe. Somewhere like Spain has changed immeasurably in the 40 years I have been visiting.
I recently had a trip to Latvia and was really impressed with the standard of living there.
The development of these countries ,and those to join, will be a massive boost to the UK economy as markets expand.
A wealthy and successful Europe governed by liberal western democracies is worth fighting for.
I'd probably vote for Brexit, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
A new Daily Mail poll came out having the Remain in the lead, and the odds widened for the Leave. Markets are soaring.
The odds are all over the place. I think its too close to call.I'd probably vote for Brexit, but it doesn't look like it's going to happen.
A new Daily Mail poll came out having the Remain in the lead, and the odds widened for the Leave. Markets are soaring.
