Blazing backpacks Batman, Rasmussen's got Sestak out in front?

[Cuyo]

After the landslide victory of Sestak over veteran recent-Democratic convert Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania primary, I haven't paid much attention to the numbers on the general election.

To my Pennsylvania contemporaries (or anyone else for that matter) - Do you get like 600 banner ads for Pat Toomey on USMB? Before the primary it had Specter in black and white and looking old and decrepit, next to the bright shining young (albiet alfalfa-lookin) star Pat Toomey. Now of course it's Sestak v Toomey ads favoring Toomey.

Out of curiosity from seeing these ads, I just checked out the RCP average in the race... And the most recent poll, which happens to be Rasmussen... Has Sestak out front by 4 points!

OK love it or hate it, we all know Rasmussen consistently has a more Republican forecast than any of the other polls, even Fox. And they NEVER gave Specter the edge in the Specter v Toomey realm. But now they have Sestak out front, and not by a hair but by 4 points? Could Sestak actually win this thing?

Thoughts?

 

[Papageorgio]

Usually after a upset over the incumbent, you should get a jump in the polls. Long time between now and November, but if he keeps his name in the news, like the accusations against Obama, he should win. He'll make Obama's life hell but...

 

[jillian]

The Republicans now have only a 6 percent chance of an outright takeover of the Senate, according to the model. Note, however, that our simulations had also shown this possibility to be somewhat overstated to begin with; it would have required a clean sweep of all competitive races, as well as a recruiting success in New York or Wisconsin. The Republicans' best chance to flip an off-the-radar race is now in Washington state, where they have a 12 percent chance to win Patty Murray's seat overall but a roughly 30 percent chance if Dino Rossi runs. The Republicans also have a very small chance of flipping Wisconsin (5 percent), Oregon (3 percent) or New York (3 percent). The simulation does not account for the possibility that someone like Ben Nelson or Joe Lieberman would switch parties, which is perhaps their most likely path to 51 seats at this point.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Senate Forecast Update: Little Chance of GOP Takeover, but Dem Position Remains Precarious

 

[midcan5]

Toomey lost the last time, he should lose again, my guess. Rasmussen is off the wall, I'm beginning to think they are in cahoots with the Fox spinners, unaware and unbalanced. I was listening to a republican senator the other day say things that were completely untrue, but he said them with such sincerity who could doubt him. It is as if you just say things that favor your point of view, and conservative MSM displays them and soon nonsense becomes sense. Where have you gone, Walter Cronkite, the nation turns....

The Rasmussen Problem | The New Republic

 

[Conspiracist]

Toomey lost the last time, he should lose again, my guess. Rasmussen is off the wall, I'm beginning to think they are in cahoots with the Fox spinners, unaware and unbalanced. I was listening to a republican senator the other day say things that were completely untrue, but he said them with such sincerity who could doubt him. It is as if you just say things that favor your point of view, and conservative MSM displays them and soon nonsense becomes sense. Where have you gone, Walter Cronkite, the nation turns....

The Rasmussen Problem | The New Republic

I have seen that go unchecked on both sides of the aisle. It really is sad. A media with no agenda would be welcome.... but I fear we are so skeptical now, we may not believe it if it actually existed.

 

[Zander]

Pennsylvania has always been a tough state for Republicans to win. This scandal is really just unfolding.... It's a long way until November.........

 

[William Joyce]

Pennsylvania's purple. Whatever. Neither Toomey nor Sestak would ever stick up for white people, so they can both go fuck themselves as far as I'm concerned.

 

[xsited1]

I bet Obama is still pissed.

 

[Cuyo]

I bet Obama is still pissed.

Think so? Regardless of his original intentions, I can't imagine he'd be upset if a winner replaced an almost certain loser.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Can Sestak vote from prison?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Rendell and Spectre will both campaign for Sestek. Toomy has little chance.

 

[Cuyo]

Can Sestak vote from prison?

lol, jail.

When Sestak goes to jail over this non-issue (Probably around the time HCR is overturned for non-existent constitutional issues), PM me your address and I will personally mail you $1000.00.

 

[EriktheRed]

Can Sestak vote from prison?

Can you be any less of a dipshit?