Blame a Sudden Heat Spike for the Arctic Temperatures in the Midwest

[Billy_Bob]

It shows quite simply that everything you say is being caused by man has happened before proving your meme total Bull SHIT!

Forest fires happened in the pre-hominid past, long before humans could have caused them. Does that mean that humans cannot have caused them now? It does by YOUR logic.

Quit casting a false narrative liar! Your the one who thinks that our current dry spell is man caused. Natural variation dumbass..

 

[Crick]

You've repeatedly charged that current warming is within natural variation. Show us a published study that arrives at the same conclusion

 

[jc456]

You've repeatedly charged that current warming is within natural variation. Show us a published study that arrives at the same conclusion

what current warming. we are in a current cooling.

 

[Crick]

I repeat: You've repeatedly charged that current warming is within natural variation. Show us a published study that arrives at the same conclusion

 

[jc456]

I repeat: You've repeatedly charged that current warming is within natural variation. Show us a published study that arrives at the same conclusion

well you could just show that the earth is actually warming, which it isn't. When IR leaves the surface, the surface cools. no matter how you spin it. and that IR comes from the sun which is natural. so please, post the evidence that there is another heat source. I've been waiting for five years in here for you to post that evidence. I also add, that volcanic activity also adds to the heat of the planet.

 

[Crick]

You are wrong on every single count. This is why few people want to talk to you about these things. You aren't actually looking for answers. You aren't looking to educate yourself. You think you've got it all and you never accept anything that conflicts with your suppositions. You have heard and read and seen everything on the list below many, many times. But none of it seems to have actually gotten into your brain.

1) The Earth is warming
2) The energy currently striking the surface is very slightly greater than the energy leaving it. That is why the Earth is warming
3) The IR the surface is emitting did not come from the sun. The energy did, but not the radiation. It was produced locally.
4) There is no new heat source. There are greenhouse gases that slow heat's release to space and thus raise the equilibrium temperature.
5) Volcanic activity does not add to the heat of the planet. Volcanic ejecta increases the planet's albedo causing temperatures to drop. The lava was hot before the eruption. Bringing it to the surface where its energy will eventually escape to space cools the planet faster than if it had stayed underground. GHGs emitted increase greenhouse warming slightly but volcanic GHG emissions are dwarfed by human GHG emissions.

 

[westwall]

Link, Mr Westwall?

Google it, stupid. I gave you the date!

 

[westwall]

You are wrong on every single count. This is why few people want to talk to you about these things. You aren't actually looking for answers. You aren't looking to educate yourself. You think you've got it all and you never accept anything that conflicts with your suppositions. You have heard and read and seen everything on the list below many, many times. But none of it seems to have actually gotten into your brain.

1) The Earth is warming
2) The energy currently striking the surface is very slightly greater than the energy leaving it. That is why the Earth is warming
3) The IR the surface is emitting did not come from the sun. The energy did, but not the radiation. It was produced locally.
4) There is no new heat source. There are greenhouse gases that slow heat's release to space and thus raise the equilibrium temperature.
5) Volcanic activity does not add to the heat of the planet. Volcanic ejecta increases the planet's albedo causing temperatures to drop. The lava was hot before the eruption. Bringing it to the surface where its energy will eventually escape to space cools the planet faster than if it had stayed underground. GHGs emitted increase greenhouse warming slightly but volcanic GHG emissions are dwarfed by human GHG emissions.

Lots of opinion there crikey, post some OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE to back it up.

 

[Billy_Bob]

You are wrong on every single count. This is why few people want to talk to you about these things. You aren't actually looking for answers. You aren't looking to educate yourself. You think you've got it all and you never accept anything that conflicts with your suppositions. You have heard and read and seen everything on the list below many, many times. But none of it seems to have actually gotten into your brain.

1) The Earth is warming
2) The energy currently striking the surface is very slightly greater than the energy leaving it. That is why the Earth is warming
3) The IR the surface is emitting did not come from the sun. The energy did, but not the radiation. It was produced locally.
4) There is no new heat source. There are greenhouse gases that slow heat's release to space and thus raise the equilibrium temperature.
5) Volcanic activity does not add to the heat of the planet. Volcanic ejecta increases the planet's albedo causing temperatures to drop. The lava was hot before the eruption. Bringing it to the surface where its energy will eventually escape to space cools the planet faster than if it had stayed underground. GHGs emitted increase greenhouse warming slightly but volcanic GHG emissions are dwarfed by human GHG emissions.

Lots of opinion there crikey, post some OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE to back it up.

All he has are models that can predict squat... But he wants us to believe that were all going to die if we don't do as he says....

 

[Crick]

You two are fooking idiots. What on that list do you think came from a model?

 

[flacaltenn]

A (another) WEATHER event has brought alot of the Denialist Clowns out but..


Blame a Sudden Heat Spike for the Arctic Temperatures in the Midwest
After a section of stratosphere experienced a rapid rise in temperature, part of the polar vortex broke off and pockets of arctic air moved south
By Brianna Abbott
Jan. 30, 2019 - Wall Street Journal
Blame a Sudden Heat Spike for the Arctic Temperatures in the Midwest

[.....]
"....Around Jan. 2, part of the stratosphere experienced a rapid rise in temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit in just a few days, NOAA says. The process—called a sudden stratospheric warming—split the unstable polar vortex.

When part of the polar vortex broke off, pockets of arctic air moved south, which is what is causing the current cold snap, meteorologists say.

Some climate scientists believe that warming in the Arctic due to climate change may be destabilizing the polar vortex, according to a 2017 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, creating more extreme weather events. Cold temperature extremes, however, have become less severe and less frequent overall in recent decades, while extreme heat events are now more severe and more frequent."..."
[.....]
`​

This is a paywall source. But the science is being distorted to score political points.. Temperatures in the stratosphere and above are not at all like fluctuations in surface temps.. In fact the thermosphere above the stratosphere is normally in the 600 to 800deg range, with atomized molecules of gases being RARE but highly energetic...

And there's no direct linkage to instaneous surface temps of a 2 or 4 degrees variation to a "500 degree spike" in any area of the stratosphere. ESPECIALLY not cause instaneously by an Arctic surface which is currently at single digits Farenheit.

What's more likely is the relationship to the thermosphere levels which are the "ionizing radiation" shield for the atmosphere below.. And recent reports of "thermospheric thinning" could very likely be a more direct cause for changes in the stratospheric temp variations. However, this recent thinning that's been noticed is more directly related to shifts towards UV energy in the sun's spectrum because of the "quiet sun" mode that we are currently observing....

 

[flacaltenn]

Trying to pin temp spikes in the Stratosphere to GWarming is at odds with the generally acknowledged effects on stratospheric temps caused by GHouse effects.. To wit....

https://www.climate.gov/news-featur.../2013-state-climate-stratospheric-temperature

Observing temperature patterns in the lower stratosphere—about 6-10 miles above Earth’s surface—gives scientists clues about our planet’s changing climate. Short-term spikes in stratospheric temperatures occur in response to major volcanic eruptions. Increasing greenhouse gases and the decline of stratospheric ozone cool the stratosphere. A long-term cooling trend in the lower stratosphere is one of many signs that increasing levels of greenhouse gases are changing our planet's climate.

So -- there's a lot more to this theory that arctic surface warming CAUSES the Arctic oscillations in jet streams to be more pronounced.

It is not at ALL --- "settled science"...

 

[flacaltenn]

You warmers are having the pants scared right off you by a media not capable of ANALYZING the science. In fact, there's ANOTHER thread on "polar vortex" in Breaking News right now. It contends this recent polar scare was NOT COLD ENOUGH. And that events like these are GETTING rarer.. Its Nat Geo coming to a completely DIFFERENT story about how surface warming effects and brutal cold snaps are related (or not)...

You fools need to get your stories together.. Maybe moderation ought to merge these 2 and let you warmers fight it out...

Check it out...

Think this polar vortex was cold? It should have been colder.

 

[flacaltenn]

The basis for that Nat Geo "theory" is VERY interesting. You can find it here at :

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Climate Changed
Dangerous Cold Snaps Feel Even Worse Because They’re Now So Rare
A half-century of U.S. temperature data suggests that frequent wintry blasts went out with parachute pants.


Check out the chart included for the frequency/severity of "polar vortexes" over the years....

 

[Crick]

Which, in turn, was based on this, Chapter 6 of the National Climate Science Assessment: Climate Science Special Report: Temperature Changes in the United States

 

[xband]

A (another) WEATHER event has brought alot of the Denialist Clowns out but..


Blame a Sudden Heat Spike for the Arctic Temperatures in the Midwest
After a section of stratosphere experienced a rapid rise in temperature, part of the polar vortex broke off and pockets of arctic air moved south
By Brianna Abbott
Jan. 30, 2019 - Wall Street Journal
Blame a Sudden Heat Spike for the Arctic Temperatures in the Midwest

[.....]
"....Around Jan. 2, part of the stratosphere experienced a rapid rise in temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit in just a few days, NOAA says. The process—called a sudden stratospheric warming—split the unstable polar vortex.

When part of the polar vortex broke off, pockets of arctic air moved south, which is what is causing the current cold snap, meteorologists say.

Some climate scientists believe that warming in the Arctic due to climate change may be destabilizing the polar vortex, according to a 2017 study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, creating more extreme weather events. Cold temperature extremes, however, have become less severe and less frequent overall in recent decades, while extreme heat events are now more severe and more frequent."..."
[.....]
`​

Blame the horses where I live, CO2 gas bags.

 

[Crick]

Wouldn't that be methane as well?

 

[baileyn45]

How about a little history to thump on the 'revisionist history' of the OP..

"February 1936 was the coldest February on record in the contiguous U.S., narrowly eclipsing February 1899.[1] It also was the coldest month ever in Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.

The meteorological winter (December through February) of 1935/36 was the coldest on record for Iowa,[2] Minnesota,[3] North Dakota,[4] and South Dakota.[5] This winter was much colder than the immediately preceding winters. 1930 through 1934 had very mild winters in the U.S. 1930/31 was warm in the western north central states; 1931/32 in the mid- and south-Atlantic states, the eastern north central states, and the eastern south central states; 1932/33 in New England; and, 1933/34 in the mountain and Pacific states.[6] In the northern plains, the Februaries of 1925, 1926, 1927, 1930, 1931, and 1935 are among the 25 warmest Februaries between 1895 and 2017, although 1929 had the third-coldest February of all-time.[7]

…

The sea froze partially as far south as Chesapeake Bay.[citation needed] From January 25 to 28, the east had its coldest January temperatures in eighteen years, with Washington, D. C. averaging 14 °F (−10.0 °C)[18] High winds in some locations caused wind chills below −85 °F (−65.0 °C). In Ohio and the Centralia district of Illinois,[19] the cold destroyed the peach crop, whilst defective heaters caused numerous dangerous fires in Minnesota.[18]

The Cold wave of January 1977 produced the only known trace of snow in the greater Miami area of Florida ever reported, although the city itself did not report any snow (a trace of snow was documented in Lake Worth). It occurred following the passage of a strong cold front, in combination with a high-pressure area situated over the Mississippi River Valley. As a result, cold air moved far to the south across Florida, causing both snow flurries and record low temperatures. Most notably, the weather system brought snow flurries (seen in the air, but not on the ground) as far south as Homestead on January 19. No snow had ever been reported in southeastern Florida before or since.

January 1977 is the coldest month on record in the state of Ohio, with an average temperature of 11.9 degrees. Snowfall was above average throughout the month and the all-time record low of −25 °F (−32 °C) was set in Cincinnati. The Ohio River froze solid for the first time since 1918, halting commercial shipping for weeks. Some parts of northern Ohio stayed below freezing for the entire month [10]. Temperatures did not rise above freezing the entire month in a swath from eastern Iowa to western Pennsylvania northward."

I remember the winter of 1977 well in Cleveland. We were hiking a 1/2 mile out on Lake Erie where the ice had buckled and shards 6 ft thick were sticking out of surface. It was outrageous and as a teenager absolutely a riot.