Big Republican donors starting to panic

[Chris]

Republicans have been worried for weeks that Mitt Romney's slippage in national polls would hurt GOP candidates down ticket. That is exactly what is happening. Republicans have seen a dip between two and six points in races from Virginia to Massachusetts to Missouri to Arizona.

Races that were once safely in hand for the GOP are becoming competitive. This is forcing Republicans to spread their finances thin rather than target big dollars for a few key states to win Senate control. We hear that big Republican donors are starting to panic.

For example, the Arizona Senate race, where Jeff Flake once looked like a sure winner, has been re-rated by political pros from "safe Republican" to "leans Republican." And of course the debacle in Missouri with Todd Akin has shifted that race against Claire McCaskill into a "leans Democrat" call. She is up five or six points. North Dakota, a solidly red state, is now close to a toss-up, and Republican Senate nominee Rick Berg's once sizable lead is down to five points.

In Connecticut, Republican Linda McMahon is doing well but is distancing herself from Mr. Romney's statement about the "47 percent." In Virginia, Republican George Allen has been even or ahead of former governor Tim Kaine, but now the Washington Post has Mr. Kaine opening up a lead of between five and 8 points. In Montana, Denny Rehberg has fallen behind Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, who six months ago was near the top of the endangered species list.

Political Diary: The Senate Slide - WSJ.com

 

[Chris]

Fox puts Romney down seven in Ohio, down five in Florida and down seven in Virginia.

Republican hopes to take the Senate, a goal the party once deemed a near certainty, seem to be collapsing as well. In state after state, the numbers are turning. Massachusetts, Florida, Virginia, Connecticut, Ohio, Wisconsin — in every crucial state in which fresh numbers are available, the tide is strongly Democratic. Last night in red Arizona, a new poll put Democrat Richard Carmona up by five over U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, the first lead Carmona has enjoyed. Other polls will be needed to confirm that switch, but back in June, Rasmussen gave Flake a seemingly insurmountable 16-point lead.

“I’m not one for hyperbole,” Nate Silver of Fivethirtyeight tweeted last night. “But GOP Senate map is imploding. Chance of a takeover now just 21%.”

GOP strategists cannot like what they’re seeing | Jay Bookman

 

[Stephanie]

yeah yeah

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Big Republican donors starting to panic

Starting?

More like they’ve been in panic mode for some time, we’re just now hearing about it, part of the fallout from the 47 Percent speech.

 

[hazlnut]

Their campaign contributions are the only trickle down we're seeing.

The 9-13% Romney pays is REGRESSIVE taxation, trickle up.

 

[California Girl]

The same Nate Silver who worked on the Obama campaign in 2008? That Nate Silver? Yea, he's not biased or agenda driven.... to a total hack.

 

[GreatDay]

The same Nate Silver who worked on the Obama campaign in 2008? That Nate Silver? Yea, he's not biased or agenda driven.... to a total hack.

He was sure right on target in 2008 as far as how things ended up, also hit it pretty good in 2004, but I understand, as a con you are not allowed to let the truth affect your opinions, only guilt by association can do that, but yeah anybody with half a brain knows the GOP must go if America is to survive. So if you don't listen to anybody who thinks we shouldn't give power to the party that screamed Washington's taking in too much money!!, when we were barely starting to break even (no thanks to them) well you cut out those people all you're left with is idiots.

 

[Old Rocks]

A year ago, the GOP was talking about how the taking of the Senate was a sure thing. And that with both the House and Senate, they also expected to take the Executive.

Now, they are hoping to retain enough people in both Houses to continue to obstruct anything that would aid the people of this nation. And the Executive is looking like a lost dream.

 

[GreatDay]

Republicans have been worried for weeks that Mitt Romney's slippage in national polls would hurt GOP candidates down ticket. That is exactly what is happening. Republicans have seen a dip between two and six points in races from Virginia to Massachusetts to Missouri to Arizona.

Races that were once safely in hand for the GOP are becoming competitive. This is forcing Republicans to spread their finances thin rather than target big dollars for a few key states to win Senate control. We hear that big Republican donors are starting to panic.

For example, the Arizona Senate race, where Jeff Flake once looked like a sure winner, has been re-rated by political pros from "safe Republican" to "leans Republican." And of course the debacle in Missouri with Todd Akin has shifted that race against Claire McCaskill into a "leans Democrat" call. She is up five or six points. North Dakota, a solidly red state, is now close to a toss-up, and Republican Senate nominee Rick Berg's once sizable lead is down to five points.

In Connecticut, Republican Linda McMahon is doing well but is distancing herself from Mr. Romney's statement about the "47 percent." In Virginia, Republican George Allen has been even or ahead of former governor Tim Kaine, but now the Washington Post has Mr. Kaine opening up a lead of between five and 8 points. In Montana, Denny Rehberg has fallen behind Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, who six months ago was near the top of the endangered species list.

Political Diary: The Senate Slide - WSJ.com

I can't wait to see the fallout when the GOP lose the house this year .

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The debates are going to be fun when Romney points out that Obama can't tell how much debt we're in to the nearest trillion and that instead of taking the job seriously Obama went on Letterman while the ME was burning to remind us how clueless and out of touch he is.

 

[zeke]

Republicans have been worried for weeks that Mitt Romney's slippage in national polls would hurt GOP candidates down ticket. That is exactly what is happening. Republicans have seen a dip between two and six points in races from Virginia to Massachusetts to Missouri to Arizona.

Races that were once safely in hand for the GOP are becoming competitive. This is forcing Republicans to spread their finances thin rather than target big dollars for a few key states to win Senate control. We hear that big Republican donors are starting to panic.

For example, the Arizona Senate race, where Jeff Flake once looked like a sure winner, has been re-rated by political pros from "safe Republican" to "leans Republican." And of course the debacle in Missouri with Todd Akin has shifted that race against Claire McCaskill into a "leans Democrat" call. She is up five or six points. North Dakota, a solidly red state, is now close to a toss-up, and Republican Senate nominee Rick Berg's once sizable lead is down to five points.

In Connecticut, Republican Linda McMahon is doing well but is distancing herself from Mr. Romney's statement about the "47 percent." In Virginia, Republican George Allen has been even or ahead of former governor Tim Kaine, but now the Washington Post has Mr. Kaine opening up a lead of between five and 8 points. In Montana, Denny Rehberg has fallen behind Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, who six months ago was near the top of the endangered species list.

Political Diary: The Senate Slide - WSJ.com

I can't wait to see the fallout when the GOP lose the house this year .

IMO, the rethugs are in a real predicement. 10% approval rating for congress. The rethugs may (probably) will keep their majority in the House. However, if they do nothing again for the next two years, they will get KILLED in the next election cycle.

 

[California Girl]

The same Nate Silver who worked on the Obama campaign in 2008? That Nate Silver? Yea, he's not biased or agenda driven.... to a total hack.

He was sure right on target in 2008 as far as how things ended up, also hit it pretty good in 2004, but I understand, as a con you are not allowed to let the truth affect your opinions, only guilt by association can do that, but yeah anybody with half a brain knows the GOP must go if America is to survive. So if you don't listen to anybody who thinks we shouldn't give power to the party that screamed Washington's taking in too much money!!, when we were barely starting to break even (no thanks to them) well you cut out those people all you're left with is idiots.

Always makes me smile when people use the word 'truth' when talking politics. It's not about 'truths', it's about opinions. Your opinion differs from mine. You also confuse conservativism with support for the GOP. The truth is quite different. Mainly, I don't support either party.... Truth is, I don't normally vote GOP or Dem - both parties suck. Unlike you, I think for myself, I don't have my opinions handed to me by anyone.

 

[GreatDay]

The same Nate Silver who worked on the Obama campaign in 2008? That Nate Silver? Yea, he's not biased or agenda driven.... to a total hack.

He was sure right on target in 2008 as far as how things ended up, also hit it pretty good in 2004, but I understand, as a con you are not allowed to let the truth affect your opinions, only guilt by association can do that, but yeah anybody with half a brain knows the GOP must go if America is to survive. So if you don't listen to anybody who thinks we shouldn't give power to the party that screamed Washington's taking in too much money!!, when we were barely starting to break even (no thanks to them) well you cut out those people all you're left with is idiots.

Always makes me smile when people use the word 'truth' when talking politics. It's not about 'truths', it's about opinions. Your opinion differs from mine. You also confuse conservativism with support for the GOP. The truth is quite different. Mainly, I don't support either party.... Truth is, I don't normally vote GOP or Dem - both parties suck. Unlike you, I think for myself, I don't have my opinions handed to me by anyone.

you're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts, cons can't tell the difference, like for instance it's a fact the 42 million jobs have been created under the last 24 years of a D in the white house while only 22 million have been created in the last 28 years with a R in there, that's a fact or the truth, not an opinion, the problem with cons is they think everything is an opinion like climate change and evolution...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

He was sure right on target in 2008 as far as how things ended up, also hit it pretty good in 2004, but I understand, as a con you are not allowed to let the truth affect your opinions, only guilt by association can do that, but yeah anybody with half a brain knows the GOP must go if America is to survive. So if you don't listen to anybody who thinks we shouldn't give power to the party that screamed Washington's taking in too much money!!, when we were barely starting to break even (no thanks to them) well you cut out those people all you're left with is idiots.

Always makes me smile when people use the word 'truth' when talking politics. It's not about 'truths', it's about opinions. Your opinion differs from mine. You also confuse conservativism with support for the GOP. The truth is quite different. Mainly, I don't support either party.... Truth is, I don't normally vote GOP or Dem - both parties suck. Unlike you, I think for myself, I don't have my opinions handed to me by anyone.

you're entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts, cons can't tell the difference, like for instance it's a fact the 42 million jobs have been created under the last 24 years of a D in the white house while only 22 million have been created in the last 28 years with a R in there, that's a fact or the truth, not an opinion, the problem with cons is they think everything is an opinion like climate change and evolution...

What happened to "saved or created"?

LOL

 

[bitterlyclingin]

[Somewhere about a week and a half to two weeks ago, Obama campaign manager David Axelrod called the Gallup polling organization and gave them a new anus over their polling methods used. Almost immediately, the polls began to swing, beginning with Gallup's, in Obama's favor across the board.]

"You need to read this post by Jim Geraghty at NRO of his interview with Republican pollster John McLaughlin:

How campaigns try to sway polling results: “In a close race, the operatives are trying to manipulate the turnout through their paid and earned media. The earned media includes lobbying and trying to skew the public polls. Historically the most egregious case was the 2000 Gore campaign’s lobbying the networks’ exit pollsters for an early, and wrong, call in Florida. This suppressed the Florida Panhandle and Western state turnout.” …

What Obama and his allies are doing now: “The Democrats want to convince [these anti-Obama voters] falsely that Romney will lose to discourage them from voting. So they lobby the pollsters to weight their surveys to emulate the 2008 Democrat-heavy models. They are lobbying them now to affect early voting. IVR [Interactive Voice Response] polls are heavily weighted. You can weight to whatever result you want. Some polls have included sizable segments of voters who say they are ‘not enthusiastic’ to vote or non-voters to dilute Republicans. Major pollsters have samples with Republican affiliation in the 20 to 30 percent range, at such low levels not seen since the 1960s in states like Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and which then place Obama ahead. The intended effect is to suppress Republican turnout through media polling bias. We’ll see a lot more of this."

» Finish hard, and fight through the finish line - Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion

"Republicans are getting depressed under an avalanche of polling suggesting that an Obama victory is in the offing. They, in fact, suggest no such thing! Here’s why:

1. All of the polling out there uses some variant of the 2008 election turnout as its model for weighting respondents and this overstates the Democratic vote by a huge margin.

In English, this means that when you do a poll you ask people if they are likely to vote. But any telephone survey always has too few blacks, Latinos, and young people and too many elderly in its sample. That’s because some don’t have landlines or are rarely at home or don’t speak English well enough to be interviewed or don’t have time to talk. Elderly are overstated because they tend to be home and to have time. So you need to increase the weight given to interviews with young people, blacks and Latinos and count those with seniors a bit less.

Normally, this task is not difficult. Over the years, the black, Latino, young, and elderly proportion of the electorate has been fairly constant from election to election, except for a gradual increase in the Hispanic vote. You just need to look back at the last election to weight your polling numbers for this one.

But 2008 was no ordinary election. Blacks, for example, usually cast only 11% of the vote, but, in 2008, they made up 14% of the vote. Latinos increased their share of the vote by 1.5% and college kids almost doubled their vote share. Almost all pollsters are using the 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples. Rasmussen, more accurately, uses a mixture of 2008 and 2004 turnouts in determining his sample. That’s why his data usually is better for Romney.

But polling indicates a widespread lack of enthusiasm among Obama’s core demographic support due to high unemployment, disappointment with his policies and performance, and the lack of novelty in voting for a black candidate now that he has already served as president.

If you adjust virtually any of the published polls to reflect the 2004 vote, not the 2008 vote, they show the race either tied or Romney ahead, a view much closer to reality.

2. Almost all of the published polls show Obama getting less than 50% of the vote and less than 50% job approval. A majority of the voters either support Romney or are undecided in almost every poll.

But the fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39. Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.

So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Add these two factors together and the polls that are out there are all misleading"

Why The Polls Understate Romney Vote at DickMorris.com

 

[bitterlyclingin]

And if you come across any of Malik Shabazz's 'goombahs' at the polling stations on election day just follow General George S Patton's advice that he gave to his new troops in his standard introductory speech. The police aren't going to protect your rights. Neither will Eric Holder: "I know some of you are worried whether you'll know what to do when the time comes. Believe me, when you put your hand into a pile of mush that a moment before was your best friend's face, you'll know what to do!"

 

[buckeye45_73]

The same Nate Silver who worked on the Obama campaign in 2008? That Nate Silver? Yea, he's not biased or agenda driven.... to a total hack.

He was sure right on target in 2008 as far as how things ended up, also hit it pretty good in 2004, but I understand, as a con you are not allowed to let the truth affect your opinions, only guilt by association can do that, but yeah anybody with half a brain knows the GOP must go if America is to survive. So if you don't listen to anybody who thinks we shouldn't give power to the party that screamed Washington's taking in too much money!!, when we were barely starting to break even (no thanks to them) well you cut out those people all you're left with is idiots.

Always makes me smile when people use the word 'truth' when talking politics. It's not about 'truths', it's about opinions. Your opinion differs from mine. You also confuse conservativism with support for the GOP. The truth is quite different. Mainly, I don't support either party.... Truth is, I don't normally vote GOP or Dem - both parties suck. Unlike you, I think for myself, I don't have my opinions handed to me by anyone.

He thinks obama is a good president, thats all you need to know, id be suprised if he can tie his shoes

 

[JimH52]

Republicans have been worried for weeks that Mitt Romney's slippage in national polls would hurt GOP candidates down ticket. That is exactly what is happening. Republicans have seen a dip between two and six points in races from Virginia to Massachusetts to Missouri to Arizona.

Races that were once safely in hand for the GOP are becoming competitive. This is forcing Republicans to spread their finances thin rather than target big dollars for a few key states to win Senate control. We hear that big Republican donors are starting to panic.

For example, the Arizona Senate race, where Jeff Flake once looked like a sure winner, has been re-rated by political pros from "safe Republican" to "leans Republican." And of course the debacle in Missouri with Todd Akin has shifted that race against Claire McCaskill into a "leans Democrat" call. She is up five or six points. North Dakota, a solidly red state, is now close to a toss-up, and Republican Senate nominee Rick Berg's once sizable lead is down to five points.

In Connecticut, Republican Linda McMahon is doing well but is distancing herself from Mr. Romney's statement about the "47 percent." In Virginia, Republican George Allen has been even or ahead of former governor Tim Kaine, but now the Washington Post has Mr. Kaine opening up a lead of between five and 8 points. In Montana, Denny Rehberg has fallen behind Democratic incumbent Jon Tester, who six months ago was near the top of the endangered species list.

Political Diary: The Senate Slide - WSJ.com

But Mitt sees no reason to change his campaign stragegy...

 

[Chris]

The Koch brothers are going to be pissed when they waste $400 million on Robme.

 

[Rinata]

They all might as well have poured their money down a rat hole!!!