Beware oil's crash....

[Zoomie1980]

Seriously, though, are they speculating that it is going to fall that far?

Two weeks ago most thought 75 was the floor. Today that is 55. I suspect 60 is quite reasonable at this rate, but it may get lower. I suppose the panic could drive it to 30, but at that point, I may be back in a place I don't particularly like, a futures market....

 

[elvis]

Two weeks ago most thought 75 was the floor. Today that is 55. I suspect 60 is quite reasonable at this rate, but it may get lower. I suppose the panic could drive it to 30, but at that point, I may be back in a place I don't particularly like, a futures market....

So gasoline will be a 2.00 a gallon and Obama will get the credit?

 

[editec]

The only people that lost money in their retirement accounts were people that actually sold them. If you did that, and didn't have to because you are actually living off of it, you are an absolutely IDIOT and DESERVE to have lost it. I'm about 12-15 years from retirement and rather than sell I have been BUYING for some time now, and with this recent crash I am buying at the highest rate I have ever done so. That 12% is 24% I will MAKE at some time.

I wish for you that your investment bring you great fortune, Zoomie.

I hope that you're buying best of field stocks in companies which have strong cash positions to weather this liquidity crises. Many Tech stocks look fairly good enough to survive and even prosper, I'm informed.

Those stocks are the one's I'd be buying if I were in the position to buy.

Those are the stocks which are likely not only to weather this storm, but which are already part of the new economy which I think we're going to live in after this embroglio plays out.

 

[editec]

Our economic history teaches me that today's global economy bears no resemblance to history. We are in a new age, where no one country can control it's own economy. National borders are IRRELEVANT and an individual central bank is close to being that way. Only a coordinated effort by the worlds major central banks is having any effect, and that is only very marginal, at best. Your adherence to historical norms is wrong headed. This is the 21st century, the age of instant information, instant market reaction and a level of interdependence and mongralization of national economies into a single GLOBAL economy, now. The US no longer controls it's own economic destiny and has not for a quite some time now. That's just reality.

I remember last summer when oil was at $135 or so and I was saying it was probably close to it's peak and would soon crash into the 70's!. You were among those claiming it was headed much higher because of Fed action causing weakening dollar. I was right, and today it closed at $77. Hmmm... Why was I right? I sensed a fundamental shift in market on the demand side, led by people dumping their SUVs, and a slowing economy, world wide. Had NOTHING to do with the FED.

An asute observation. Let me push that theme just a bit further

NONE of the nations, not even with the combined efforts of their national banks are going to be able to change the course that the market is setting.

We are looking at the creative destruction that some economists speak of when they talk about transformation of economies.

And now? I sense yet another fundamental shift in the marketplace, this time in equities. I simply "feel" that the market is sensing the bottom. Again, has NOTHING to do with the FED, which I am convinced is approaching irrelevancy in terms the the GLOBAL economy. The panic is simply wearing out and the companies behind the market are still fundamentally sound....at least most of them....and we still like to buy stuff and over 90% of us have incomes, still.....

Timing is all, here, as I am quite sure you are acutely aware, Zoom.

I just hope it doesn't explode upwards now...I want to have some time to buy cheap shares over a long period....

Oh I think you are quite safe there.

I think the market is going to fibrilate for quite some time while this market demolishes the old to make way for the new.

As to thinking about what the world looks like post world depression?

People have to eat, that's fairly certain.

Oil prices may drop, but I think it's safe to assume that people will be using oil on the other side of the depression, too.

And as I mentioned already, the high tech and biotech sectors seem like they have legs, too, and I suspect some of those high techies are if nothing else a destination to park money, too.

Although the biotech stocks seem like they have a future in the FUTURE, they don't seem to be in the cash positions that more mature tech sectors have, right now, so I think I'd eschew those until the dust settles on this current liquidity crises.

 

[Zoomie1980]

An asute observation. Let me push that theme just a bit further

NONE of the nations, not even with the combined efforts of their national banks are going to be able to change the course that the market is setting.

We are looking at the creative destruction that some economists speak of when they talk about transformation of economies.



Timing is all, here, as I am quite sure you are acutely aware, Zoom.



Oh I think you are quite safe there.

I think the market is going to fibrilate for quite some time while this market demolishes the old to make way for the new.

As to thinking about what the world looks like post world depression?

People have to eat, that's fairly certain.

Oil prices may drop, but I think it's safe to assume that people will be using oil on the other side of the depression, too.

And as I mentioned already, the high tech and biotech sectors seem like they have legs, too, and I suspect some of those high techies are if nothing else a destination to park money, too.

Although the biotech stocks seem like they have a future in the FUTURE, they don't seem to be in the cash positions that more mature tech sectors have, right now, so I think I'd eschew those until the dust settles on this current liquidity crises.

I don't usually time things as well as I did oil or predict the near exact dollar values of the high's and low's (I suppose the low in oil could be a bit more). I'm usually just "in the neighborhood".

As for stocks I only invest mostly blue chips or companies with good cash positions and a strong market presence in a market reasonably assured of growing.

I like alternative energy, in particular good companies in the wind turbine and battery business. Mutual funds are still the best way to diversify, both within market sectors and across sectors. If you've got less than $250,000 those are usually the best way to go rather than individual companies.

The auto industry has been beaten down pretty bad and I like the companies that are highly invested in future technology like hybrids and electrics. Toyota is my favorite but I wish they were more aggressive on the pure electric front.

And now is the time to pick a few banks.

 

[Care4all]

...We are not too far now from having the world's most critical commodity losing HALF it's value in less than three months! That is almost beyond belief. That dwarfs the stock market losses, or the housing bust.

Cause....speculators, again.....we are now seeing runaway, as yet uncovered short sales in oil. They may drive this market into the 30's before its done and along with it, all the emphasis on alternative fuel and conservation....gas will not just drop below $3 but well below $2 and closer to $1. Unbelievable....

From your mouth to God's ears! I'd be fine with a dollar fifty a gallon again!

the "uptick" rule needs to be reinstated...

also, speculation should cost more of their own money upfront...that might slow it down...

 

[Toro]

Collapsing oil price is a good thing, at least for the economy.