Beware of Greeks bearing Bonds

Thanks for reading it! It really is an amazing story told by somebody who is obviously skilled at telling stories.

Loved this quote:

The Marfin Bank’s marble stoop has been turned into a sad shrine: a stack of stuffed animals for the unborn child, a few pictures of monks, a sign with a quote from the ancient orator Isocrates: “Democracy destroys itself because it abuses its right to freedom and equality. Because it teaches its citizens to consider audacity as a right, lawlessness as a freedom, abrasive speech as equality, and anarchy as progress.” At the other end of the street a phalanx of riot police stand, shields together, like Spartan warriors. Behind them is the Parliament building; inside, the debate presumably rages, though what is being said and done is a mystery, as the Greek journalists aren’t working, either. The crowd begins to chant and march toward the vastly outnumbered police: the police stiffen. It’s one of those moments when it feels as if anything might happen. Really, it’s just a question of which way people jump.

That’s how it feels in the financial markets too. The question everyone wants an answer to is: Will Greece default? There’s a school of thought that says they have no choice: the very measures the government imposes to cut costs and raise revenues will cause what is left of the productive economy to flee the country. The taxes are lower in Bulgaria, the workers more pliable in Romania. But there’s a second, more interesting question: Even if it is technically possible for these people to repay their debts, live within their means, and return to good standing inside the European Union, do they have the inner resources to do it? Or have they so lost their ability to feel connected to anything outside their small worlds that they would rather just shed themselves of the obligations? On the face of it, defaulting on their debts and walking away would seem a mad act: all Greek banks would instantly go bankrupt, the country would have no ability to pay for the many necessities it imports (oil, for instance), and the country would be punished for many years in the form of much higher interest rates, if and when it was allowed to borrow again. But the place does not behave as a collective; it lacks the monks’ instincts. It behaves as a collection of atomized particles, each of which has grown accustomed to pursuing its own interest at the expense of the common good. There’s no question that the government is resolved to at least try to re-create Greek civic life. The only question is: Can such a thing, once lost, ever be re-created?
 
For whatever it is worth I read a summary of a Harvard study recently that concluded that since the nation of Greece was founded a surprisingly few centuries ago (1830) that Greece has been in default of their debts more often than not.

So it really isn't such a mad act, the banks won't go bankrupt, they won't really be punished for it, they can still import oil if they pay cash.

They might be ousted from the EU.
 
But German banks will collapse after the new Basel rules take effect and cause the value of Greek bonds to be written down.
 
You think so? So far EU banks all seem in a mad rush to recapitalize. It may work because it must work.

Odd that Greek banks stood alone in refusing to load up on US mortgage securities.

Germany made both mistakes. Shame on them.
 
You think so? So far EU banks all seem in a mad rush to recapitalize. It may work because it must work.

Odd that Greek banks stood alone in refusing to load up on US mortgage securities.

Germany made both mistakes. Shame on them.
Check out the EU downturn thread this story has legs.
 

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