Discussion in 'Economy' started by Modbert, Jul 11, 2011.
Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Over - Bloomberg
Yes, the rest of the world is even more fucked up than we are; think of it as we're the last part of the Titanic to go down, so in comparison -- we rule!!
QE2 is over, no sign of a QE3 yet. One wonders what the Fed will do if the UE still look bad going into the fall. But yeah, we seem to be the best of a bad bargain right now, outside maybe of some developing countries that are going gangbusters.
That might depend on how you define best.
Besides, the fact that other currencies are expected to drop faster than the dollar is not necessarily good news. Part of what is actually driving the recovery we are currently seeing is the fact that the dollar is weak, which gives foreign companies a better deal on US manufactured goods. A stronger dollar could lead to a manufacturing slump, which will slow down the economy even further, and might lead to another recession.
Prolly from the same economic astrologists who always seem surprised when this or that economic news runs contrary to their predictions.
Maybe they could find a useful living in selling shoes.
Again the deceit of how we view the value of our dollar emerges. If our dollar is losing value at a rate of 50% per year, but everyone else is losing value at 60% per year, it would appear our dollar is actually increasing in value at a rate of 10% per year.
If you want to see the truth about the falling dollar, look at inflation numbers (and I don't mean the government manipulated current CPI). Also look at the expansion of the real money supply. As supply increases, price decreases. The price of the dollar is its purchasing power, aka value. More money=lower valued dollar.
Best house in a bad neighborhood.
It looks like the dollar is trying to put in a bottom. Only time will tell.
In the meantime, I own precious metals.
my buddy appears to have been wrong, he thought the dollar would test its June 2010 low...
Excellent decision IMHO. I'm in an ETF that helps spread the risk a little.
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