- Sep 2, 2008
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Best Currency Forecasters Say Dollar Slump Over - Bloomberg
Interesting.
The best currency forecasters say the dollars 12 percent slide over the past year is coming to an end as Europes deepening debt crisis discourages bets against the worlds reserve currency.
Led by Schneider Foreign Exchange Ltd., the five most- accurate firms during the six quarters through June 30 as measured by Bloomberg see the dollar trading at $1.42 per euro on average by year-end, compared with $1.43 on July 8. Against the yen, they predict the greenback will rise to 83 from 80.64.
While Moodys Investors Service added to Europes woes last week by lowering Portugals credit ranking to junk, the dollar is regaining its status as a haven after the worst performance over the past year among 10 developed-market currencies based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The dollar is up 5.9 percent from a 17-month low on May 4 against the euro.
Hedge funds and other large speculators are no longer betting the dollar is going to collapse.
Wagers on a decline against peers including the euro, yen and pound were 203,230 on July 5, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in Washington showed last week. Thats down from 405,267 in March, the most since at least November 2003.
Interesting.