Bernanke: recession could end in '09

[auditor0007]

you are partly wrong auditor. part of the problem is people cant get a loan to buy the houses. yes that is part of the problem. you are sorely mistaken if you dont think that is a major problem. YOU MUST RESTORE CREDIT so that businesses can in fact start hiring again and prevent more layoffs. a major business and the same thing will a small one cant get a loan to pay for supplies and payroll. who do you think a business pays its employees? is credit part of the problem. until its fixed you unemployment will not go down. it may not reach normal levels i think until 2011. will everything be back to normal probably not but you have to take baby steps first.

i agree with you in another thread that the lack of savings is also part of the problem.

I understand that the inability to get credit is a problem, both in the home sector and for businesses who need it to hold inventory. However, despite that, the fact is that there are so many homes on the market, that even when credit eases, it's going to take some time to absorb all these homes. That will make it much more difficult for builders to begin building new homes again on a pace that will help on the employment side.

Here is an article from 2007 where it was stated that as much as 40% of home sales may have been purchased by speculators. This was before the bust. If 40% of homes were being purchased by speculators for any extended amount of time, it is easy to see how too many homes were built.

U.S. home builders join speculators in a land grab that went bust - International Herald Tribune

Here is an article dating back to 2005 discussing how speculators were buying a much larger percentage of homes than in the past.

Another article from 2006 discussing how speculators were buying the majority of new homes.

U.S. home builders join speculators in a land grab that went bust - International Herald Tribune

Another article from 2005

Blowing Bubbles - Economic Conditions, Mortgages And Banking - Builder Magazine


The fact is that speculators created excess demand. When the bubble burst, well, it burst. The bottom line is now that prices have fallen, easing credit will help as some new home buyers will be able to purchase these homes. However, many will remain vacant and unpurchased at any price. I still say it's going to take five years before the housing market gets back to normal, and as the housing market goes, so does the rest of the economy.

 

[editec]

The stock market is NOT America.

If unemployment doesn't go down, this nation will regardless of what your market does.

 

[sealybobo]

The stock market is NOT America.

If unemployment doesn't go down, this nation will regardless of what your market does.

So true.

I heard today that 2/3 Americans are now confident that if they lost their jobs, they would not find a job that paid equal or better.

So most people get it.

All the people I argue with here that say people who are struggling are just whiners, or their skills are not worth a lot, are just arrogant pricks. God sometimes you wish they would lose it all so they could show us how talented they really are.

I've actually seen quite a few conservatives fall from grace. I have to admit, it is nice to hear them admit that the government actually can fuck someone's life up. Soooo arrogant when it was just manufacturing. Didn't care about the workers because for 30 years the GOP has been demonizing UNIONS. And now people who are not in unions are also being told that they are lazy and not worth what they used to make.

Meanwhile, guys like Midnight Maurader can make $30K per job. Because he's fortunate enough that his skill is still valued, he pisses on the rest of us.

And he admits he doesn't pay nearly his share in taxes.

PS. Did you hear Chaney praising Rush? Gotta love it!!!

 

[editec]

The stock market is NOT America.

If unemployment doesn't go down, this nation will regardless of what your market does.

So true.

I heard today that 2/3 Americans are now confident that if they lost their jobs, they would not find a job that paid equal or better.

they've seen what has been happening to different classes of working class for the last couple decades.

So most people get it.

They get the outcomes but apparently still don't get why its happening to them.

All the people I argue with here that say people who are struggling are just whiners, or their skills are not worth a lot, are just arrogant pricks.

That's all they got, dude, don't you understand that? If they can't make you angry..THEY LOSE the argument.

God sometimes you wish they would lose it all so they could show us how talented they really are.

I understand that sometimes we all want to burn down the house. But when or if that house start burning you're not going to like the outcome.

I've actually seen quite a few conservatives fall from grace.

You're writing to one, right now, dude. You think I wasn't an arrogant jerkoff when I was winning? Know that I was. Having enough money and thinking that you've got a shot at that gold ring, makes one BLIND to the system's flaws because you THINK they're working for you.

Perhaps that's why I am slightely more sympathetic to the delusions of the wealthy and their wealthy wannabe supporters than you are?

I have to admit, it is nice to hear them admit that the government actually can fuck someone's life up.

What they cannot admit, because then they'd have to care about it, is that the market can screw up everyone's lives just as easily.

They're STILL denying the measure of responsibility of the MARKET that caused this mess, aren't they?

Cognative dissonence, amigo. It's not a pretty thing to witness.

Soooo arrogant when it was just manufacturing. Didn't care about the workers because for 30 years the GOP has been demonizing UNIONS.

Yup. And to be fair, the unions made that rather easy for them to do, too, didn't it?

My father was a teamster and a union representative. You wanna know what he told me about the Teamsters?

They'll kill you if you get in their way. They're gangsters, son..they're our gangsters, but they're still gangsters.

And now people who are not in unions are also being told that they are lazy and not worth what they used to make.

The BIG lie is all they have. They are admitting their defeat when they cleave it it.

You win these debates intellectually often, but you expect the people you've defeated with facts and logic to acknowldge that win, Sho.

Ain't NEVER gonna happen.

Getting frustrated that they won't admit it is pointless.

Get control of your anger and turn it into something productive...like even better arguments to make your points.

(I think I'm lecturing to myself, again, here, Sho. You're just a good person to say it to. Nothing personal)