Bernanke: recession could end in '09

[DavidS]

Bernanke: recession could end in '09

WASHINGTON – America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.
In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism that this could be done.
Still, Bernanke stressed — as he did to Congress last month — that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.
"We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely," Bernanke said. "But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery.

 

[dilloduck]

Bernanke: recession could end in '09

WASHINGTON – America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.
In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism that this could be done.
Still, Bernanke stressed — as he did to Congress last month — that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.
"We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely," Bernanke said. "But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery.

Is "things might get better" even worth reporting ?

 

[wimpy77]

i dont see why the people on cnbc were so worried about him doing an interview. he didn't say anything he hadn't already said. yes this thing could end this year its just that thing have to be done to make that happen.

 

[Toro]

Is "things might get better" even worth reporting ?

Yes.

People are extremely negative and pessimistic right now.

 

[elvis]

Is "things might get better" even worth reporting ?

Yes.

People are extremely negative and pessimistic right now.

it's amazing how the market reacts to the statement of one person.

 

[Toro]

Is "things might get better" even worth reporting ?

Yes.

People are extremely negative and pessimistic right now.

it's amazing how the market reacts to the statement of one person.

Yes, it is.

If the recession/depression does end this year, stocks will rise by 50% or so.

Of course, it could also go straight down from here.

 

[DavidS]

Bernanke: recession could end in '09

WASHINGTON – America's recession "probably" will end this year if the government succeeds in bolstering the banking system, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Sunday in a rare television interview.
In carefully hedged remarks in a taped interview with CBS' "60 Minutes," Bernanke seemed to express a bit more optimism that this could be done.
Still, Bernanke stressed — as he did to Congress last month — that the prospects for the recession ending this year and a recovery taking root next year hinge on a difficult task: getting banks to lend more freely again and getting the financial markets to work more normally.
"We've seen some progress in the financial markets, absolutely," Bernanke said. "But until we get that stabilized and working normally, we're not going to see recovery.

Is "things might get better" even worth reporting ?

Yes, because you bet on speculation the market is going into a recession and you also bet on speculation that the market is going to rebound next year.

 

[DavidS]

Yes.

People are extremely negative and pessimistic right now.

it's amazing how the market reacts to the statement of one person.

Yes, it is.

If the recession/depression does end this year, stocks will rise by 50% or so.

Of course, it could also go straight down from here.

Doubt it. The market should return to its resting place in the 8000s by April. I think this is going to be a big rallying week. I think right now is the BEST week to bet on the stock market in 12 years. Bank stocks that are backed by the federal government are CHEAP. I also would bet on tech stocks, stem cell biotech stocks, Ford, green energy stocks (not Natgas) and construction stocks since the housing market will re-boot soon. Oil hit bottom a while ago and I think oil has nowhere to go but up. Also, I think it's time to move OUT OF gold if the economy is going to rebound soon.

God, I wish I had a million dollars right now. I would go full energy into this market. I would do 50% long term, 50% day-trade. Even during the worst of the worst of this market, if you would've put $10K in Citi a week and a half ago at .98 and $10K in MS back in November/December, you would've made double your return. It's not hard to find the little nooks that are cheap as hell right now that will only go higher.

I'm bullish on the market right now.

 

[dilloduck]

Yes.

People are extremely negative and pessimistic right now.

it's amazing how the market reacts to the statement of one person.

Yes, it is.

If the recession/depression does end this year, stocks will rise by 50% or so.

Of course, it could also go straight down from here.

in other words. A big shot says " anything can happen " and people think that he issued marching orders ? Do you realize how insane that is? Y'all may as well go to Vegas and stick it all on black--or red.

 

[Toro]

David

The market will not be a resting place from these levels. It is either going up much higher or going down much lower, but it is not stopping here. That is not how these events work. They do not just rest. Stocks are dirt cheap and violently oversold. If the economy falls apart, then it is going significantly lower. If the economy is not falling apart, it is going significantly higher.

If you believe the market is going to stay around these levels, write put-call spreads and collect the premiums. I would highly recommend you not do that though.

 

[elvis]

it's amazing how the market reacts to the statement of one person.

Yes, it is.

If the recession/depression does end this year, stocks will rise by 50% or so.

Of course, it could also go straight down from here.

in other words. A big shot says " anything can happen " and people think that he issued marching orders ? Do you realize how insane that is? Y'all may as well go to Vegas and stick it all on black--or red.

just sayiing that's what happens. I remember Greenspan saying once how he "might" have to increase interest rates. The market tanked.

 

[Toro]

in other words. A big shot says " anything can happen " and people think that he issued marching orders ? Do you realize how insane that is? Y'all may as well go to Vegas and stick it all on black--or red.

Do I know how insane that is? I have been doing this for nearly 20 years. Insanity is part of the job.

But if people are extremely negative, something that alleviates that negativity even somewhat will cause a violent rally.

 

[dilloduck]

Yes, it is.

If the recession/depression does end this year, stocks will rise by 50% or so.

Of course, it could also go straight down from here.

in other words. A big shot says " anything can happen " and people think that he issued marching orders ? Do you realize how insane that is? Y'all may as well go to Vegas and stick it all on black--or red.

just sayiing that's what happens. I remember Greenspan saying once how he "might" have to increase interest rates. The market tanked.

oh you're right as rain-----never seen so many greedy bastards gamble instead of work.

 

[wimpy77]

im hoping the rally does continue tomorrow. bernanke didn't say anything in the interview that i would interpret as negative. there's a rumor going around that geithner and obama will announce a plan to help small business. i made a post about it.

 

[auditor0007]

I do not buy into the idea that once credit eases, everything will be back to normal. The thing nobody discusses is the simple fact that we built too many homes. Even with credit possibly easing, it will only put a small dent in the glut of homes on the market. New housing starts are a long way off, and that is what will be needed to get this economy back into full swing. I may be wrong, but I don't think so. I think we may actually see a turnaround, but it's not going to lead to a robust economy. At best, it will be stagnant to very slow growth.

 

[wimpy77]

you are partly wrong auditor. part of the problem is people cant get a loan to buy the houses. yes that is part of the problem. you are sorely mistaken if you dont think that is a major problem. YOU MUST RESTORE CREDIT so that businesses can in fact start hiring again and prevent more layoffs. a major business and the same thing will a small one cant get a loan to pay for supplies and payroll. who do you think a business pays its employees? is credit part of the problem. until its fixed you unemployment will not go down. it may not reach normal levels i think until 2011. will everything be back to normal probably not but you have to take baby steps first.

i agree with you in another thread that the lack of savings is also part of the problem.

 

[DavidS]

David

The market will not be a resting place from these levels. It is either going up much higher or going down much lower, but it is not stopping here. That is not how these events work. They do not just rest. Stocks are dirt cheap and violently oversold. If the economy falls apart, then it is going significantly lower. If the economy is not falling apart, it is going significantly higher.

If you believe the market is going to stay around these levels, write put-call spreads and collect the premiums. I would highly recommend you not do that though.

Sorry, I must've typed it wrong. I think the market is going to go up - WAY up. We gained nearly a half a century's worth of stocks in one week. There's a LOT of money on the sidelines and once they start putting money back in - WATCH OUT.

I think the floor was the 6500ish call I made. The ceiling - our next contraction - you're going to kill me for saying this - will be 26,000. It's a wild call, but again, looking at the same patterns that the DOW has doubled under every president. If the market should've been 6500 by the time Dubyah took office, the market should be 13000 right now, which would leave it to Obama to double the market value which is 26,000.

Can you imagine if in 8 years from now the DOW is at 26,000 and you got in when it was at 7200? Citibank's at $1.79 right now - what if it got back up to $55, where it was three years ago. That's an increase of 3000%. Put in $10k and see where that takes you. If stem cell research yields excellent results, these penny stock biotech companies will go through the roof.

 

[elvis]

David

The market will not be a resting place from these levels. It is either going up much higher or going down much lower, but it is not stopping here. That is not how these events work. They do not just rest. Stocks are dirt cheap and violently oversold. If the economy falls apart, then it is going significantly lower. If the economy is not falling apart, it is going significantly higher.

If you believe the market is going to stay around these levels, write put-call spreads and collect the premiums. I would highly recommend you not do that though.

Sorry, I must've typed it wrong. I think the market is going to go up - WAY up. We gained nearly a half a century's worth of stocks in one week. There's a LOT of money on the sidelines and once they start putting money back in - WATCH OUT.

I think the floor was the 6500ish call I made. The ceiling - our next contraction - you're going to kill me for saying this - will be 26,000. It's a wild call, but again, looking at the same patterns that the DOW has doubled under every president. If the market should've been 6500 by the time Dubyah took office, the market should be 13000 right now, which would leave it to Obama to double the market value which is 26,000.

Can you imagine if in 8 years from now the DOW is at 26,000 and you got in when it was at 7200? Citibank's at $1.79 right now - what if it got back up to $55, where it was three years ago. That's an increase of 3000%. Put in $10k and see where that takes you. If stem cell research yields excellent results, these penny stock biotech companies will go through the roof.

what does that say about mutual funds?

 

[DavidS]

David

The market will not be a resting place from these levels. It is either going up much higher or going down much lower, but it is not stopping here. That is not how these events work. They do not just rest. Stocks are dirt cheap and violently oversold. If the economy falls apart, then it is going significantly lower. If the economy is not falling apart, it is going significantly higher.

If you believe the market is going to stay around these levels, write put-call spreads and collect the premiums. I would highly recommend you not do that though.

Sorry, I must've typed it wrong. I think the market is going to go up - WAY up. We gained nearly a half a century's worth of stocks in one week. There's a LOT of money on the sidelines and once they start putting money back in - WATCH OUT.

I think the floor was the 6500ish call I made. The ceiling - our next contraction - you're going to kill me for saying this - will be 26,000. It's a wild call, but again, looking at the same patterns that the DOW has doubled under every president. If the market should've been 6500 by the time Dubyah took office, the market should be 13000 right now, which would leave it to Obama to double the market value which is 26,000.

Can you imagine if in 8 years from now the DOW is at 26,000 and you got in when it was at 7200? Citibank's at $1.79 right now - what if it got back up to $55, where it was three years ago. That's an increase of 3000%. Put in $10k and see where that takes you. If stem cell research yields excellent results, these penny stock biotech companies will go through the roof.

what does that say about mutual funds?

I'm not privvy to how well mutual funds did in the 1990s vs. stocks. Looking at historical prices of the Russel 3000, which went briefly over 900 in 2006 vs. today's prices which are close to where we were in the 1990s, I would have no idea how to predict where it would go.... BUT CD's are going to skyrocket with the coming inflation and interest rate hikes.

 

[wimpy77]

i think it's premature to say 26,000 is the next level. you need to take into consideration if there is another downturn after this one. i dont think we can clearly say its going to double from here.

what if this uptrend in the market is just a bear market rally. just saying you cant foresee the future.