Berkeley Earth Project

Discussion in 'Environment' started by IanC, Feb 27, 2011.

  1. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    a new global temperature data set is being prepared at Berkeley and should be online in the next few weeks. all the data and methodologies will be freely accessable.

    my question is what differences do the posters here think will stand out? personally I am looking forward to seeing how they handle the much larger uncertainties in areas outside of northern hemisphere countries, and UHI everywhere. interesting times and I predict both sides will be pissed off.
     
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  2. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    sorry, I forgot to put up a link

    Can a group of scientists in California end the war on climate change? | Science | The Guardian
     
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  3. Old Rocks
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    Very interesting preliminery data set;

    Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (© 2010)

    Of course, if the Berkeley data set reinforces what Dr. Hansen is stating, then the immediate chorus from you and the rest will be what else would you expect from that Commie hotbed at Berkeley. LOL
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    I like the bona fides of the men doing this study.

    Richard A. Muller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Muller obtained a A.B. degree at Columbia University (New York) and a Ph.D. degree in physics from University of California, Berkeley. Muller began his career as a graduate student under Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez doing particle physics experiments and working with bubble chambers. During his early years he also helped to cocreate accelerator mass spectroscopy and made some of the first measurements of anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background.

    Subsequently, Muller branched out into other areas of science, and in particular the Earth sciences. His work has included attempting to understand the ice ages, dynamics at the core-mantle boundary, patterns of extinction and biodiversity through time, and the processes associated with impact cratering. One of his most well known proposals is the Nemesis hypothesis suggesting that the sun could have an as yet undetected companion dwarf star, whose perturbations of the Oort cloud and subsequent effects on the flux of comets entering the inner solar system could explain an apparent 26 million year periodicity in extinction events.


    A lesson with Richard Muller[edit] Positions and recognitionMuller is a member of the JASON Defense Advisory Group which brings together prominent scientists as consultants for the United States Department of Defense.


    Muller explaining antimatterHe was named a MacArthur Foundation Fellow in 1982. He also received the Alan T. Waterman Award from the National Science Foundation "for highly original and innovative research which has led to important discoveries and inventions in diverse areas of physics, including astrophysics, radioisotope dating, and optics." More recently, he received a distinguished teaching award from UC Berkeley [1]. His "Physics for Future Presidents" series of lectures, in which Muller teaches a synopsis of modern qualitative (i.e. without resorting to complicated math) physics, has been released publicly on YouTube by UC Berkeley and has been published in book form. It has been one of the most highly regarded courses at Berkeley.

    On Thursday Dec 3rd 2009 Muller announced his retirement in his Letters in Science C70V lecture Dec 3rd 2009 Lecture 14 minutes 15 seconds into the lecture. He will continue to guest lecture the course which he created and has the popular name "Physics for Future Presidents" Bob Jacobsen now teaches the course. Muller said he will be putting most of his time into "energy, environment, global warming, alternative energy" 14 minutes 55 seconds into the same lecture.
     
  5. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    This is going to be interesting.

    Robert Rohde | LinkedIn

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  6. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    exactly! neither side is going to be happy. the temps wont go down much but the error bars will be much wider. both sides will claim victory but the public doesnt understand uncertainty so the media will see it as vindication and ignore the plus/minus figures and the arguments that you cant really take the overall global temp, just the trends in various regions. you cant really compare arctic trends that are plus/minus 2.0 degrees with american temps that are plus/minus 0.3 degrees.
     
  7. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    [ QUOTE=Old Rocks;3372716]I like the bona fides of the men doing this study.

    Richard A. Muller - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Muller obtained a A.B. degree at Columbia University (New York) and a Ph.D. degree in physics from University of California, Berkeley. Muller began his career as a graduate student under Nobel laureate Luis Alvarez doing particle physics experiments and working with bubble chambers. During his early years he also helped to cocreate accelerator mass spectroscopy and made some of the first measurements of anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background.

    Subsequently, Muller branched out into other areas of science, and in particular the Earth sciences. His work has included attempting to understand the ice ages, dynamics at the core-mantle boundary, patterns of extinction and biodiversity through time, and the processes associated with impact cratering. One of his most well known proposals is the Nemesis hypothesis suggesting that the sun could have an as yet undetected companion dwarf star, whose perturbations of the Oort cloud and subsequent effects on the flux of comets entering the inner solar system could explain an apparent 26 million year periodicity in extinction events.


    A lesson with Richard Muller[edit] Positions and recognitionMuller is a member of the JASON Defense Advisory Group which brings together prominent scientists as consultants for the United States Department of Defense.


    Muller explaining antimatterHe was named a MacArthur Foundation Fellow in 1982. He also received the Alan T. Waterman Award from the National Science Foundation "for highly original and innovative research which has led to important discoveries and inventions in diverse areas of physics, including astrophysics, radioisotope dating, and optics." More recently, he received a distinguished teaching award from UC Berkeley [1]. His "Physics for Future Presidents" series of lectures, in which Muller teaches a synopsis of modern qualitative (i.e. without resorting to complicated math) physics, has been released publicly on YouTube by UC Berkeley and has been published in book form. It has been one of the most highly regarded courses at Berkeley.

    On Thursday Dec 3rd 2009 Muller announced his retirement in his Letters in Science C70V lecture Dec 3rd 2009 Lecture 14 minutes 15 seconds into the lecture. He will continue to guest lecture the course which he created and has the popular name "Physics for Future Presidents" Bob Jacobsen now teaches the course. Muller said he will be putting most of his time into "energy, environment, global warming, alternative energy" 14 minutes 55 seconds into the same lecture.[/QUOTE]


    Muller is one of the scientists that have been publicly admitting their embarrassment over the lack of rigour with papers like Mann's hockey stick. he can't believe it got past peer review and thinks it should be withdrawn.
     
  8. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    It's interesting to see the massive drop in active GHCN stations from the 1980's on to the present day.
     
  9. IanC
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    IanC Gold Member

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    I think a lot of those statiions are still reporting, just not counted. the new data set will use them but it is a real question as to how they will combine everything to find a 'global temp'. the extra data points will probably just lower the error bar. like I said, the idea of a single temperature for the world isnt real a valid concept.

    it will be fun to see how the trends turn out and how they handle 'adjustments' though.
     
  10. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    I agree, should be most interesting.
     

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