Bbc- East Ukraine To Get Autonomy, Rebels Amnesty....far From Over.

First of all let me express my doubts about Medvedev questioning Putin's policy. Those two are too smart and civilized politicians and good old friends on the top of everything to do so. If they disagree they won’t please BBC or any other media by letting them know… Second, since Kiev junta has appeared on the political arena it has not said a word of truth, its credibility equals zero.

About amnesty and special status. Rostislav Ischenko, the President of Systematic Analysis and Prognoses, a member of a Post-Soviet Space League experts says the following:

“The suggested initiatives don’t have too many chances to stabilize the situation because of several reasons.

1. Those legislation almost completely repeats Poroshenko’s plan, which he presented in May. So, why were both sides fighting for so long?

2. In the current situation of temporary stopping the civil war neither side admits its defeat, both sides are going to keep fighting. Those suggestion don’t completely satisfy either Kiev or rebellious SE. Besides nobody believes Kiev politicians. Many people believe Kiev is doing it just for catching its breath.

3. Also there is a very deep economical problem. If Poroshenko stops the war, he needs to tell to 100 thousands people from Ukrainian army and to 30-35 thousands of SE Territorial Army: “Everything is ok, put away your guns and go home. But we don’t have jobs for you, guys..”. And I doubt a lot that they would put their guns away. Because a machine gun in Ukraine became not only a subject for political arguments but also a subject for surviving. And now it’s very difficult to send the troops home not only because of their ideological incompatibleness, but also because any war is an economy.

4. And the last question: who will pay for Ukraine? In order to exist a country has to have some money. But in Ukraine there is no economy, no budget, external financing is impossible for a long time in future. To restore the economy, somebody should invest in Ukraine about 100 billions dollars a year during next 5 years. Is there anybody who is ready to give that money? Due to all those reasons a peaceful process is impossible at the moment.”
 

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