Bad News for Obama: Surprising Decline in Economic Pessimism This Week

[The Paperboy]

Gallup:

Consumer pessimism, although still overwhelmingly high, has declined somewhat in the past several days -- particularly in terms of future economic expectations, with 83% of Americans saying economic conditions are "getting worse" -- down 7 points from last week and only 2 points worse than a month ago.

Story here

McCain from the other night:

"Sen. Obama is ready for any contingency, even the possibility of a sudden and dramatic market rebound. I’m told that at the first sign of a recovery, he will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address the crisis."

 

[jillian]

*yawn* maybe that's because people know Bush is going to be out of office pretty soon.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

And, at this point, I'm not even sure a terrorist threat will help you since it will just make people think about the stupidity of having Sarah Palin in office if an attack were to occur.

I think your problem is that Repubs love schadenfreude. Dems don't.

 

[The Paperboy]

*yawn* maybe that's because people know Bush is going to be out of office pretty soon.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. These figures reflect a remarkably stable race in which Obama has enjoyed a four-to-eight point advantage for twenty-three straight days. McCain has not been up by even a single point in over a month.

Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

And, at this point, I'm not even sure a terrorist threat will help you since it will just make people think about the stupidity of having Sarah Palin in office if an attack were to occur.

I think your problem is that Repubs love schadenfreude. Dems don't.

It's still Obama's to lose or win but if the race goes into a statistical tie by the last weekend Obama is in big trouble.

He is not pulling away. He is barely cracking 50%. And there are still lots of of undecideds.

My perception and I may be dead wrong is that there has been a slight momentum shift to McCain.

It should be good fun!

Now about whether a government handout is a tax cut...

 

[greenpartyaz]

Gallup:

Consumer pessimism, although still overwhelmingly high, has declined somewhat in the past several days -- particularly in terms of future economic expectations, with 83% of Americans saying economic conditions are "getting worse" -- down 7 points from last week and only 2 points worse than a month ago.

Story here

McCain from the other night:

"Sen. Obama is ready for any contingency, even the possibility of a sudden and dramatic market rebound. I’m told that at the first sign of a recovery, he will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address the crisis."

Tough shit for you, he's got more electoral votes than the Manchurian Candidate!

 

[Caligirl]

Gallup:

Consumer pessimism, although still overwhelmingly high, has declined somewhat in the past several days -- particularly in terms of future economic expectations, with 83% of Americans saying economic conditions are "getting worse" -- down 7 points from last week and only 2 points worse than a month ago.

Story here

McCain from the other night:

"Sen. Obama is ready for any contingency, even the possibility of a sudden and dramatic market rebound. I’m told that at the first sign of a recovery, he will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address the crisis."

I actually think you're my kind of contributor .... I love how you take the red ticket going from worse to merely bad and call it a victory! It's good. Shows you are an optimist, and much better than whining and moaning about this or that.

 

[Mad Scientist]

Good news is always bad news for the Dems who are constantly looking for more economic or political "victims" to exploit.

This is indeed good news.

 

[Caligirl]

Good news is good news for americans, many of whom happen to be democrats (and some of whom could use better job prospects.

 

[Red Dawn]

I love wingnut world.

"Only" 83% of americans think the economy is fucked.

And I heard that George Dumbya Bush's approval rating surged up to 26%!

 

[Mad Scientist]

And I heard that George Dumbya Bush's approval rating surged up to 26%!

Howze that Congressional approval rating doing nowadays?

 

[Red Dawn]

Howze that Congressional approval rating doing nowadays?

Haven't seen the latest.

But all the top Congressional election prognosticators are predicting Dems to pick up around 20 seats or more in the House.

 

[DavidS]

*yawn* maybe that's because people know Bush is going to be out of office pretty soon.

It's still Obama's to lose or win but if the race goes into a statistical tie by the last weekend Obama is in big trouble.

He is not pulling away. He is barely cracking 50%. And there are still lots of of undecideds.

My perception and I may be dead wrong is that there has been a slight momentum shift to McCain.

It should be good fun!

Now about whether a government handout is a tax cut...

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

John McCain has once again improved his position in the national tracking polls, having gained ground in 4 of the 5 6 trackers that published today (Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP were the exceptions).** Our model now perceives that Obama has come somewhat off his peak numbers, which were realized perhaps 5-7 days ago.

At the same time, McCain's improved position in the trackers is a little bit difficult to reconcile with certain other pieces of evidence. In the Research 2000 tracking poll, for instance, while McCain has gained 5 points worth of ground in 48 hours in the topline numbers, the candidates' approval ratings over that period are completely unmoved. In the Gallup tracker, while McCain has gained ground among likely voters since the debate, he has lost ground among registered voters. Lastly, every poll conducted on the debate itself suggested that Obama won the event.

What I think we may be seeing are some improvements in Republican enthusiasm. Prior to the debate, McCain was having a very rough go of things in the media, as the only stories seemed to be the ineffectiveness of his attacks on Bill Ayers, and the nonresponsiveness of his campaign to the economy. In the polls that measured these things, there was evidence that enthusaism was very low among McCain supporters. A conservative voter, having little real message to latch on to, and seeing McCain far behind in the polls, might have been telling pollsters that he wasn't sure if he was going to bother to vote, and therefore might have been screened out by likely voter models, which all of the tracking polls are now using.

Between "Joe the Plumber", "spread the wealth", "I'm not George Bush", etc., however, McCain at least now seems to have a few somewhat more constructive talking points (in that sense, the fact that the Ayers attacks went over like a lead balloon at the debate might have done him a favor). So some of those crestfallen conservatives might have moved back into the likely voter universe.

What I don't know that McCain is doing, on the other hand, is actually persuading very many voters, and particularly not independents or registered Democrats. If that is the case, than McCain is likely to run into something of a wall very soon here, brought about the Republicans' substantial disadvantage in partisan identification. People sometimes misunderstand the nature of "momentum" in presidential campaigns. If McCain was down 8 points yesterday, and is down 6 points today, that does not mean that he is likely to be 4 points down tomorrow. On the contrary, polling in the general election seems essentially to be a random walk, with the minor stipulation that the polling has had some tendency to tighten slightly during the stretch run (as our model accounts for). That is, the polls are essentially as likely to move back toward Obama tomorrow as they are to continue to move toward McCain.

McCain's other problem is that the polls in battleground states have not really tightened at all. Obama gets good numbers today, for instance, in North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida. Obama presently has something like a 3:1 advantage in advertising, and most of that advertising is concentrated in battleground states. As such, this may serve as a hedge against any improvements that McCain is able to make elsewhere in the country.

 

[Mad Scientist]

Haven't seen the latest.
But all the top Congressional election prognosticators are predicting Dems to pick up around 20 seats or more in the House.

Interesting report from Rasmussen here:
Rasmussen Reports: The most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a presidential election.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just nine percent (9%) of Likely Voters give Congress positive ratings, while 51% say it's doing a poor job.

Just 37% of Democrats say they have a favorable opinion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,while 51% have an unfavorable opinion of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. One-quarter (25%) of Democrats rate their view of the San Francisco Democrat as Very Favorable, but 14% see her in a Very Unfavorable light.

That's supposed to translate into a 20 seat pickup in the House huh? She's pulling those numbers out of her ass. She thinks Obama is gonna' get elected and a bunch of Reps are gonna' ride his coat tails.

That's if he wins. If he doesn't win and Republican turnout is big, we could see the opposite right? Sure could.

You can start worrying now.

 

[The Paperboy]

I actually think you're my kind of contributor .... I love how you take the red ticket going from worse to merely bad and call it a victory! It's good. Shows you are an optimist, and much better than whining and moaning about this or that.

I'd be pretty down in the dumps if Obama was pulling away but he's not.

There are two things I won't be surprised about on November 5th if either happens:

1. Obama wins a big electoral victory
2. McCain squeaks out an electoral victory

This is such an unual election year that anything is possible. What makes it unusual is that a sitting President or Vice President is not on the ballot and we have the first African American nominee who is also probably the least experienced nominee for President in 100 years.

Should be a wild and fun ride all the way until election day!

 

[Vintij]

Gallup:

Consumer pessimism, although still overwhelmingly high, has declined somewhat in the past several days -- particularly in terms of future economic expectations, with 83% of Americans saying economic conditions are "getting worse" -- down 7 points from last week and only 2 points worse than a month ago.

Story here

McCain from the other night:

"Sen. Obama is ready for any contingency, even the possibility of a sudden and dramatic market rebound. I’m told that at the first sign of a recovery, he will suspend his campaign and fly immediately to Washington to address the crisis."

I like your little image at the bottom showing that the top 25% pay 85% of all taxes. I guess you left out the image of the top 1% alone making more wages than the entire bottom 50% combined. And the top 5% alone making more wages than the other 95% of americans combined in the country. The delusional argument about the rich paying more taxes has been refuted easily by every self respecting economist on the planet by showing that the impact of paying 85% of the taxes on the top 25% wage earners is virtually non existence in comparison to the impact of the bottom 85% of earners paying 25% of taxes. Why? Easy, because the top 5% earners alone are so beyond rich that they could pay 100% of the taxes in the US and still not be effected by it as much as the middle class is effected. There is just too much money in this country (for the past 100 years unchanged) going to the top 5% and continuing to go there. Im not saying we need a distribution of wealth at all, I am saying that the so called "american dream" is an american fantasy that the middle class people like yourself love to buy into, when in reality the only chance you have of making an american dream is winning the lotto. Your job is to consume and stay consuming, not to day dream about being rich and paying less taxes some day. Perhaps if anyone from the top 5% earners knew how greedy it is to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest people on earth, while understanding that if 50% of the people in this country got together and opened one giant bank account, it would not even compare to the bank accounts of just 1% of the top earners in this country.

 

[The Paperboy]

I like your little image at the bottom showing that the top 25% pay 85% of all taxes. I guess you left out the image of the top 1% alone making more wages than the entire bottom 50% combined. And the top 5% alone making more wages than the other 95% of americans combined in the country. The delusional argument about the rich paying more taxes has been refuted easily by every self respecting economist on the planet by showing that the impact of paying 85% of the taxes on the top 25% wage earners is virtually non existence in comparison to the impact of the bottom 85% of earners paying 25% of taxes. Why? Easy, because the top 5% earners alone are so beyond rich that they could pay 100% of the taxes in the US and still not be effected by it as much as the middle class is effected. There is just too much money in this country (for the past 100 years unchanged) going to the top 5% and continuing to go there. Im not saying we need a distribution of wealth at all, I am saying that the so called "american dream" is an american fantasy that the middle class people like yourself love to buy into, when in reality the only chance you have of making an american dream is winning the lotto. Your job is to consume and stay consuming, not to day dream about being rich and paying less taxes some day. Perhaps if anyone from the top 5% earners knew how greedy it is to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest people on earth, while understanding that if 50% of the people in this country got together and opened one giant bank account, it would not even compare to the bank accounts of just 1% of the top earners in this country.

Dumb, dumb, dumb dumb argument.

 

[Vintij]

Dumb, dumb, dumb dumb argument.

Wow, very stimulating debate. Thank you, I think the highlights were when you said quote "dumb dumb dumb dumb". I think you really got your point accross.

 

[jillian]

Howze that Congressional approval rating doing nowadays?

Irrelevant, actually, because no matter what people think of congress, when asked, most people actually vote FOR their own representatives.

 

[Vintij]

Irrelevant, actually, because no matter what people think of congress, when asked, most people actually vote FOR their own representatives.

Exactly, if approval ratings are so low for congress as a whole body....why are the majority of congressmen serving for an average of 15-20 years at time? If they really cared the states would elect different representitives like they should be doing every couple years.

 

[The Paperboy]

I like your little image at the bottom showing that the top 25% pay 85% of all taxes. I guess you left out the image of the top 1% alone making more wages than the entire bottom 50% combined. And the top 5% alone making more wages than the other 95% of americans combined in the country. The delusional argument about the rich paying more taxes has been refuted easily by every self respecting economist on the planet by showing that the impact of paying 85% of the taxes on the top 25% wage earners is virtually non existence in comparison to the impact of the bottom 85% of earners paying 25% of taxes. Why? Easy, because the top 5% earners alone are so beyond rich that they could pay 100% of the taxes in the US and still not be effected by it as much as the middle class is effected. There is just too much money in this country (for the past 100 years unchanged) going to the top 5% and continuing to go there. Im not saying we need a distribution of wealth at all, I am saying that the so called "american dream" is an american fantasy that the middle class people like yourself love to buy into, when in reality the only chance you have of making an american dream is winning the lotto. Your job is to consume and stay consuming, not to day dream about being rich and paying less taxes some day. Perhaps if anyone from the top 5% earners knew how greedy it is to extend the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest people on earth, while understanding that if 50% of the people in this country got together and opened one giant bank account, it would not even compare to the bank accounts of just 1% of the top earners in this country.

How about the top 40% pay the same taxes as the bottom 40% or visa versa?

Even better yet why don't we just give all our money to the government and let the government divide it up evenly?

Now I know you liberals hate to give specific answers to specific questions but can you please list out "every self respecting economist on the planet" excluding those from Cube, Venezuela, Iran, Syria and North Korea.

 

[Annie]

How about the top 40% pay the same taxes as the bottom 40% or visa versa?

Even better yet why don't we just give all our money to the government and let the government divide it up evenly?

Now I know you liberals hate to give specific answers to specific questions but can you please list out "every self respecting economist on the planet" excluding those from Cube, Venezuela, Iran, Syria and North Korea.

I think it a grand idea. In fact, that is what Obama has been advocating, at least the later. I think he could set the first example of 'compassion' for leveling the playing field. In these last two weeks, he can split the nearly billion dollars he's received in donations, (from here and abroad). That way, we can see if it's his ideas that are selling and the 'little guy' will have a chance.