Bad News for Democrats

Dont Taz Me Bro

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The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.
 
The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

Martin Heinrich is the first Democrat to ever hold the seat. Explain what makes it such a "Democratic" district?
 
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The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

Martin Heinrich is the first Democrat to ever hold the seat. Explain what makes it such a "Democratic" district?

I believe I did.
 
The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

I don't think the Democrats are worried as much now that the Tea Baggers have gotten the GOP to put Angle on the biggest ticket for the 2010 mid-terms.
 
The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

Martin Heinrich is the first Democrat to ever hold the seat. Explain what makes it such a "Democratic" district?

I believe I did.

And I'm saying I don't trust the Cook numbers, seeing as how the district HAD NEVER BEEN HELD BY A DEMOCRAT PRIOR TO 2008.
 
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And I'm saying I don't trust the Cook numbers, seeing as how the district HAD NEVER BEEN HELD BY A DEMOCRAT PRIOR TO 2008.

The numbers are easy to validate. A a CPVI score of D+5 means the Democrats received 5 percentage points more votes than the national average.
 
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The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

I don't think the Democrats are worried as much now that the Tea Baggers have gotten the GOP to put Angle on the biggest ticket for the 2010 mid-terms.

I'm sure Harry Reid is on knees thanking God for that one, but I still think in the end that Angle will defeat him. Plus, there are well over a hundred seats in play in both chambers and overall the Democrats have been polling poorly. Veteran Democrats like Earl Pomeroy and Stephanie Herseth are losing. My own Congressman John Spratt who has been in the House for almost 30 years is polling well below 50% and tied with his challenger. 2010 is shaping up for the GOP what 2006 and 2008 were for the Democrats and the Democrats are in as much denial as the Republicans were in '06.
 
I'd be a ton more concerned if Republicans were taking a bunch of traditional democrat seats. Getting back a red state is a yawner.
 
I'd be a ton more concerned if Republicans were taking a bunch of traditional democrat seats. Getting back a red state is a yawner.

Republicans gaining some seats back, be them traditional GOP or not is good for all of America. We NEED checks and balances in our legislative branch. We NEED debate in our legislative branch.

Personally, I am appalled when either party brags about the possibility of a super majority. It lends itself to one sided law making that is not in the best interest of America.

And when someone like Pelosi, the SPEAKER, brags to the media that the DEMS may gain a super majority (as she did in 2008), it confirms my belief that our politicians are more wrapped up in party than they are in doing what is best for America.

I personally do not care who has the majority, I only care that the minority has a say in our law making.
 
I'd be a ton more concerned if Republicans were taking a bunch of traditional democrat seats. Getting back a red state is a yawner.

Republicans gaining some seats back, be them traditional GOP or not is good for all of America. We NEED checks and balances in our legislative branch. We NEED debate in our legislative branch.

Personally, I am appalled when either party brags about the possibility of a super majority. It lends itself to one sided law making that is not in the best interest of America.

And when someone like Pelosi, the SPEAKER, brags to the media that the DEMS may gain a super majority (as she did in 2008), it confirms my belief that our politicians are more wrapped up in party than they are in doing what is best for America.

I personally do not care who has the majority, I only care that the minority has a say in our law making.

Ditto,

I don't like it when either party controls the whole pie.

Checks and balances work just fine for me.
 
The latest SurveyUSA poll has Republican Jon Barela leading Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich 51% to 45% in New Mexico's First Congressional District. This does not bode well for the Democratic Party. Despite being represented by Republican Heather Wilson until 2008 when she ran for Senate, NM-01 is a Democratic leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index score of D+5. Heinrich should be able to hold that seat even in a bad year for Democrats. The fact that he is trailing by six points is not a good sign for his party nationwide.

I don't think the Democrats are worried as much now that the Tea Baggers have gotten the GOP to put Angle on the biggest ticket for the 2010 mid-terms.

Damn man... so you walk around all day dreaming of having a big ole sweaty man ball sack in your mouth? It's quite evident you can't stop thinking about it.
 
And I'm saying I don't trust the Cook numbers, seeing as how the district HAD NEVER BEEN HELD BY A DEMOCRAT PRIOR TO 2008.

The numbers are easy to validate. A a CPVI score of D+5 means the Democrats received 5 percentage points more votes than the national average.

And I don't think that numbers from one election cycle are enough to quantify a district, especially when EVERY OTHER ELECTION YEAR, THE DISTRICT HAS GONE REPUBLICAN.
 
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And I'm saying I don't trust the Cook numbers, seeing as how the district HAD NEVER BEEN HELD BY A DEMOCRAT PRIOR TO 2008.

The numbers are easy to validate. A a CPVI score of D+5 means the Democrats received 5 percentage points more votes than the national average.

And I don't think that numbers from one election cycle are enough to quantify a district, especially when EVERY OTHER ELECTION YEAR, THE DISTRICT HAS GONE REPUBLICAN.

It's not one election year. It's determined by the most recent two presidential elections.
 
The numbers are easy to validate. A a CPVI score of D+5 means the Democrats received 5 percentage points more votes than the national average.

And I don't think that numbers from one election cycle are enough to quantify a district, especially when EVERY OTHER ELECTION YEAR, THE DISTRICT HAS GONE REPUBLICAN.

It's not one election year. It's determined by the most recent two presidential elections.

The point I'm trying to make is that Presidential election years are THE WORST indicator of how a district will go in a mid-term year. 30-40% of voters ONLY vote for President.

A better indicator of a district would be the history of the seat. Which is entirely republican. If the district was so strongly Dem in 2004, why did it go to a republican in 2004 and 2006 for Congress?
 
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A better indicator of a district would be the history of the seat. Which is entirely republican. If the district was so strongly Dem in 2004, why did it go to a republican in 2004 and 2006 for Congress?

Heather Wilson barely won reelection in 2006. The state overall has been moving more into the Democrats' column each year.
 
A better indicator of a district would be the history of the seat. Which is entirely republican. If the district was so strongly Dem in 2004, why did it go to a republican in 2004 and 2006 for Congress?

Heather Wilson barely won reelection in 2006. The state overall has been moving more into the Democrats' column each year.

As proven by all Republicans winning Elections less one, and now appearing to go back to Republican?

If anyone wanted to point out a "trend" in the district, it's certainly not Democratic in-terms of electing their officials. I don't see how a usualy Republican-led district returning to Republican leadership after a term is such "bad news."
 
If I were in charge of the DCCC, I would categorize this race as "low priority", as I'm sure the DCCC has done, for a number of reasons.

1. Traditionally a republican seat
2. Not a long term incumbent

Unless the Dems had a really great candidate, I don't see much resources going to this race. I could be wrong though.
 

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