Avoiding the double-dip...or worse.

iamwhatiseem

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Aug 19, 2010
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This is a pretty good article.
Nothing new, but needs repeating over and over and over.

With a trade deficit exceeding 3% of GDP, either Americans borrow and spend more than they earn to keep the economy going, or the demand for U.S. made goods and services is insufficient to accomplish full employment.

Too many Americans can’t find decent paying jobs, houses don’t sell and prices stay depressed, and consumers don’t spend. In the funk, unemployment stays above 9%, and counting adults stuck in part-time jobs or too discouraged to look, and young college graduates flipping hamburgers, it is closer to 20%.

Read more: Avoiding a Double Dip Recession, or Worse - FoxBusiness.com

Avoiding a Double Dip Recession, or Worse - FoxBusiness.com
 
I wouldn't say Americans are borrowing and spending too much, I'd reserve that criticism for the US Government.

The jobs part has to do (I think) with trade agreements and lack of tariffs. Plus, the Federal Reserve and International bankers are robbing us blind.
 
I wouldn't say Americans are borrowing and spending too much, I'd reserve that criticism for the US Government.

The jobs part has to do (I think) with trade agreements and lack of tariffs. Plus, the Federal Reserve and International bankers are robbing us blind.

Hmmm...of course Americans are borrowing too much.
As a society - we have had negative savings for years running, which of course means people are spending more than they make - and what are the buying? - Chinese goods.

It is simple, there are not enough jobs in this country producing things because we can't compete with a country that purposely and grossly depletes the value of their currency and pays 1/8th the wages/benefits as America.
As the article states "it is like trying to wrestle someone bare-handed that is carrying an axe"
 
Meanwhile, in the UK (with it's coalition government bringing in severe austerity measures), the IMF has given them the thumbs up and predicted a solid, albeit slow, recovery.

Shame we don't have a Government with the balls to take the hard road.
 
This is a pretty good article.
Nothing new, but needs repeating over and over and over.

With a trade deficit exceeding 3% of GDP, either Americans borrow and spend more than they earn to keep the economy going, or the demand for U.S. made goods and services is insufficient to accomplish full employment.

Too many Americans can’t find decent paying jobs, houses don’t sell and prices stay depressed, and consumers don’t spend. In the funk, unemployment stays above 9%, and counting adults stuck in part-time jobs or too discouraged to look, and young college graduates flipping hamburgers, it is closer to 20%.

Read more: Avoiding a Double Dip Recession, or Worse - FoxBusiness.com

Avoiding a Double Dip Recession, or Worse - FoxBusiness.com

Imposing tariffs, drilling for more oil, lower gasoline prices, etc., aren't going to do anything about the depressed housing market. Solving those problems are only part of the overall solution.

Many people thought the fix to the 2008 economic meltdown was for the government to do nothing and let the free market adjust itself. If we're now headed back down the same path (a double-dip), and since the government has done all it can to jump start the economy and won't be doing any further "stimulus" at all, including further tax cuts for businesses, it's time for the free marketeers to step up and put their money where their mouths have been.

Will the big monied interests dip into their billion-dollar bank accounts and "bail out" American businesses and industries by investing in job-creating projects here in order to compete with China? As the article points out, without jobs (good paying jobs), consumers will continue to avoid purchases of high-end product (like homes).
 
Meanwhile, in the UK (with it's coalition government bringing in severe austerity measures), the IMF has given them the thumbs up and predicted a solid, albeit slow, recovery.

Shame we don't have a Government with the balls to take the hard road.

Blame the voters, who don't like the debt, but don't want the goodies taken away either. And Congress (whether they're Republicans, Democrats or Tea Partiers) won't go against what their constituents want if they want to get reelected. If the US government could simply mandate austerity programs, without a great hue and cry from those who would scream we've become Nazified, it might solve the problem. But you know that's not going to happen.
 
Meanwhile, in the UK (with it's coalition government bringing in severe austerity measures), the IMF has given them the thumbs up and predicted a solid, albeit slow, recovery.

Shame we don't have a Government with the balls to take the hard road.

Blame the voters, who don't like the debt, but don't want the goodies taken away either. And Congress (whether they're Republicans, Democrats or Tea Partiers) won't go against what their constituents want if they want to get reelected. If the US government could simply mandate austerity programs, without a great hue and cry from those who would scream we've become Nazified, it might solve the problem. But you know that's not going to happen.

Actually, I blame Americans... because we elect idiots. And, for the record, I include both Republicans and Democrats in that 'idiots'.

And... for the record.... the TEA Party is not a political party. It is a political movement.

If Obama had done what Cameron had done when he took office, we wouldn't be in such a fucking mess. Instead, he chose to stick to his arrogant stance and priorities instead of doing the right thing for the country. If he had put Healthcare on hold and focused his efforts on saving our economy from day 1, we would be in a much better position now.
 
1. Taxes. Don't raise 'em, not yet anyway. Wipe out the most egregious tax breaks and loopholes and cut the rates to even it out. Revenues are going to go up with rates as they are.

2. Spending. We've gotta come up with a budget plan to establish fiscal sanity and a long term debt management. You've all heard about the various entitlement programs going broke and that "unsustainable" word. Well, it's true and if we don't work out something we're fucked.

3. Energy and gas prices. We gotta start drilling. Right now. Oil and gas commodity prices are based on future expectations, and that means an energy plan that reeduces and eventually eliminates our dependence on foreign oil. Which by the way significantly cuts into our trade deficit. Stop screwing around with that fucking high speed rail shit and the fucking windmills, they are not and will not be economically feasible for quite some time.

4. We gotta deregulate, it costs too damn much money to comply with the blizzard of rules and regs comingout of Washington, and more on the way. It's ridiculous, we do need effective regs and strict enforcement with some teeth, but we can't be strangling business.

5. The EPA and NLRB need to stand down a little bit.

6. No more bailouts, there needs to be a clear understanding that if you screw up you pay the price of failure. No matter who you are.

7. No more adjustable rate mortgages. No more federal programs to change the mortgage principle or helpmake the payments. It's between you and the bank, the gov't should be out of the picture. We need to let the housing market find the bottom without any more idiot gov't programs.

I'm sure I forgot some stuff, but the things we need to do are not expensive. It requires a change at the top though, Obama is not going to do any of these things. He'll say it to get votes, but he won't do it.
 
Meanwhile, in the UK (with it's coalition government bringing in severe austerity measures), the IMF has given them the thumbs up and predicted a solid, albeit slow, recovery.

Shame we don't have a Government with the balls to take the hard road.

Blame the voters, who don't like the debt, but don't want the goodies taken away either. And Congress (whether they're Republicans, Democrats or Tea Partiers) won't go against what their constituents want if they want to get reelected. If the US government could simply mandate austerity programs, without a great hue and cry from those who would scream we've become Nazified, it might solve the problem. But you know that's not going to happen.

Actually, I blame Americans... because we elect idiots. And, for the record, I include both Republicans and Democrats in that 'idiots'.

And... for the record.... the TEA Party is not a political party. It is a political movement.

If Obama had done what Cameron had done when he took office, we wouldn't be in such a fucking mess. Instead, he chose to stick to his arrogant stance and priorities instead of doing the right thing for the country. If he had put Healthcare on hold and focused his efforts on saving our economy from day 1, we would be in a much better position now.

I agree on the health care issue, although in the back of my mind, I know that it would have just faded away like it has for the past 60 years and we'd continue to see health care prices rise beyond control of the average person. The mishmash that resulted, however, will do little to halt that.

What did Cameron do that an American President might not be Constitutionally able to do? That's not a rhetorical question; I'd sincerely like to know.
 
1. Taxes. Don't raise 'em, not yet anyway. Wipe out the most egregious tax breaks and loopholes and cut the rates to even it out. Revenues are going to go up with rates as they are.
Removing the tax perks, especially for corporations, is a no-go, at least right now but is still being negotiated I hope. That's why the deficit commission's final plan landed in the toilet. Congress would have no part of it.

2. Spending. We've gotta come up with a budget plan to establish fiscal sanity and a long term debt management. You've all heard about the various entitlement programs going broke and that "unsustainable" word. Well, it's true and if we don't work out something we're fucked.
That's the toughest of all, again, because you can't do anything that is going to affect people already receiving benefits the way the programs were designed. So then the problem becomes the younger generations who will feel discriminated against because they will deem cuts in their benefits down the road as being unfair. With the Big 3 entitlement programs, don't forget that DoD takes a huge chunk. Again, Obama himself is looking for a way to get out of Afghanistan even faster because those two wars alone are still costing about $3 billion per week, but most Republicans in Congress and some Democrats want to stay until we finish the job (whatever that is).

3. Energy and gas prices. We gotta start drilling. Right now. Oil and gas commodity prices are based on future expectations, and that means an energy plan that reeduces and eventually eliminates our dependence on foreign oil. Which by the way significantly cuts into our trade deficit. Stop screwing around with that fucking high speed rail shit and the fucking windmills, they are not and will not be economically feasible for quite some time.
No, the private sector needs to start investing more in alternative energy projects, which means nothing but jobs jobs jobs. Not everyone who needs employment can go to work for an oil drilling company.

4. We gotta deregulate, it costs too damn much money to comply with the blizzard of rules and regs comingout of Washington, and more on the way. It's ridiculous, we do need effective regs and strict enforcement with some teeth, but we can't be strangling business.
Regulations protect the public from all sorts of potential problems, from tainted food and water to fraudulent lending practices. Any "deregulation" needs to be done on an agency-by-agency basis. I still think businesses that complain about too much red tape are using it as an excuse, since there have been "regulations" in place for eons, and in better economic times, they have just learned to deal with it.


5. The EPA and NLRB need to stand down a little bit.

6. No more bailouts, there needs to be a clear understanding that if you screw up you pay the price of failure. No matter who you are.
The government won't do any more bailouts, so when will the private sector begin investing (bailing out)?

7. No more adjustable rate mortgages. No more federal programs to change the mortgage principle or helpmake the payments. It's between you and the bank, the gov't should be out of the picture. We need to let the housing market find the bottom without any more idiot gov't programs.
And that's what's happening. The initial assistance to help reduce foreclosures was temporary, but it was also two-fold. Keep people in their homes if possible, which would reduce the number of properties the banks would own. Banks don't want the buildings; they want the money. Lending remains a Catch-22 situation: Banks are reluctant to loan, even when a person might qualify, because the economy is still on the edge. But if they don't begin lending, the housing market will remain dismal until they do.

I'm sure I forgot some stuff, but the things we need to do are not expensive. It requires a change at the top though, Obama is not going to do any of these things. He'll say it to get votes, but he won't do it.

What is it that you want Obama to "do" now?? Banks have paid back their loans, with interest, but the big investment houses are up to their same tricks. Should even MORE regulations be applied to banking? Obama cannot tell any private sector bank how to design its lending packages. No president can write bills dealing with energy, or even budgets, for that matter. All he can do is offer Congress what he would like to see happen, and the rest is up to them.
 
There is one very big point you guys are not seeing in the article...Americans as consumers.
There are not enough American consumers buying products manufactured in America. That is what he meant when he said the customer base for American made products are not large enough to sustain full employment.
We are finally reaching the point to where our foreign outsourcing has put enough people out of work that there is now not enough fully employed people left to by the products that ARE made here.
 
1. Taxes. Don't raise 'em, not yet anyway. Wipe out the most egregious tax breaks and loopholes and cut the rates to even it out. Revenues are going to go up with rates as they are.
Removing the tax perks, especially for corporations, is a no-go, at least right now but is still being negotiated I hope. That's why the deficit commission's final plan landed in the toilet. Congress would have no part of it.

I dunno, could be some work done in this area.

2. Spending. We've gotta come up with a budget plan to establish fiscal sanity and a long term debt management. You've all heard about the various entitlement programs going broke and that "unsustainable" word. Well, it's true and if we don't work out something we're fucked.
That's the toughest of all, again, because you can't do anything that is going to affect people already receiving benefits the way the programs were designed. So then the problem becomes the younger generations who will feel discriminated against because they will deem cuts in their benefits down the road as being unfair. With the Big 3 entitlement programs, don't forget that DoD takes a huge chunk. Again, Obama himself is looking for a way to get out of Afghanistan even faster because those two wars alone are still costing about $3 billion per week, but most Republicans in Congress and some Democrats want to stay until we finish the job (whatever that is).

I dunno how they're going to manage the amount of spending cuts that Boehner is talking about without getting into the entitlements. Obama is not going to give in on his healthcare plan, maybe a fix to Social Security could happen. And yes, cuts in defense too.

3. Energy and gas prices. We gotta start drilling. Right now. Oil and gas commodity prices are based on future expectations, and that means an energy plan that reeduces and eventually eliminates our dependence on foreign oil. Which by the way significantly cuts into our trade deficit. Stop screwing around with that fucking high speed rail shit and the fucking windmills, they are not and will not be economically feasible for quite some time.

No, the private sector needs to start investing more in alternative energy projects, which means nothing but jobs jobs jobs. Not everyone who needs employment can go to work for an oil drilling company.

Here's where we disagree, alternative energy has to be economically viable, without any subsidies. Right now, none of 'em are, and if Uncle Sam isn't footing the bill then this sector is not going to be creating many jobs. And a lot of those jobs are overseas in foreign companies rather than here.

4. We gotta deregulate, it costs too damn much money to comply with the blizzard of rules and regs comingout of Washington, and more on the way. It's ridiculous, we do need effective regs and strict enforcement with some teeth, but we can't be strangling business.
Regulations protect the public from all sorts of potential problems, from tainted food and water to fraudulent lending practices. Any "deregulation" needs to be done on an agency-by-agency basis. I still think businesses that complain about too much red tape are using it as an excuse, since there have been "regulations" in place for eons, and in better economic times, they have just learned to deal with it.


5. The EPA and NLRB need to stand down a little bit.

6. No more bailouts, there needs to be a clear understanding that if you screw up you pay the price of failure. No matter who you are.

The government won't do any more bailouts, so when will the private sector begin investing (bailing out)?

The private sector is sitting on a ton of money, but we're not going to see any of it until the business climate improves and employers know what the costs of creating new businesses or expanding existing ones are going to be. They're profitable now, no need for them to take chances until they se more upside and less risk.

7. No more adjustable rate mortgages. No more federal programs to change the mortgage principle or helpmake the payments. It's between you and the bank, the gov't should be out of the picture. We need to let the housing market find the bottom without any more idiot gov't programs.
And that's what's happening. The initial assistance to help reduce foreclosures was temporary, but it was also two-fold. Keep people in their homes if possible, which would reduce the number of properties the banks would own. Banks don't want the buildings; they want the money. Lending remains a Catch-22 situation: Banks are reluctant to loan, even when a person might qualify, because the economy is still on the edge. But if they don't begin lending, the housing market will remain dismal until they do.

I'm sure I forgot some stuff, but the things we need to do are not expensive. It requires a change at the top though, Obama is not going to do any of these things. He'll say it to get votes, but he won't do it.

What is it that you want Obama to "do" now?? Banks have paid back their loans, with interest, but the big investment houses are up to their same tricks. Should even MORE regulations be applied to banking? Obama cannot tell any private sector bank how to design its lending packages. No president can write bills dealing with energy, or even budgets, for that matter. All he can do is offer Congress what he would like to see happen, and the rest is up to them.


I think Obama is out of options. The Fed can do QE3 but as we've aleady seen, adding more money isn't working. His EPA is still trying to end run Congress and implement some form of cap and trade, his NLRB is trying to force companies away from right to work states, nobody knows how the ObamaCare lawsuits will work out and what healthcare costs will be. The housing market sucks, which is a major component of most people's wealth, prices are still dropping. The things he's done in office just haven't worked, and many of his policies appeaqr to be counter productive. I wouldn't say it's all his fault, but you know where the buck stops.
 
We're not going to avoid the double dip. It's already here.

What we can avoid is not having The Worst Recovery Ever again when it's over.
 
There is one very big point you guys are not seeing in the article...Americans as consumers.
There are not enough American consumers buying products manufactured in America. That is what he meant when he said the customer base for American made products are not large enough to sustain full employment.
We are finally reaching the point to where our foreign outsourcing has put enough people out of work that there is now not enough fully employed people left to by the products that ARE made here.

That's a major part of it, for sure, but when consumers are spending money (regardless where a product is made), they're paying sales tax to the state(s) which increases their revenue.

By the way, although rarely mentioned, I envision sales tax on Internet purchases is just around the corner.
 
We're not going to avoid the double dip. It's already here.

What we can avoid is not having The Worst Recovery Ever again when it's over.
OVER is over.
You aren't coming back.
It's over. FOREVER.
You are Rome. Centuries after. Figure that out. Run if you can.
If you can not. Quit paying the masters. it'll slow things down for a little bit.
 
We're not going to avoid the double dip. It's already here.

What we can avoid is not having The Worst Recovery Ever again when it's over.
OVER is over.
You aren't coming back.
It's over. FOREVER.
You are Rome. Centuries after. Figure that out. Run if you can.
If you can not. Quit paying the masters. it'll slow things down for a little bit.
Douger if Rome could survive the social war, two triumvirates and whatever you want to call that mess in 70AD then I think you are premature
 
This is a pretty good article.
Nothing new, but needs repeating over and over and over.

With a trade deficit exceeding 3% of GDP, either Americans borrow and spend more than they earn to keep the economy going, or the demand for U.S. made goods and services is insufficient to accomplish full employment.

Too many Americans can’t find decent paying jobs...
The article was good enough to get published and be believed by many, but it's full of nonsense.

The 'trade deficit' has been shrinking over the past few years. Back in 2006 it was over 6% of GDP and unemployment was under 5%. Now unemployment's 9.1%, down from double digit unemployment a year ago when the trade deficit had shrunk to the lowest it's been in a dozen years.

fredgraph110608.png

OK, lots of famous people say the trade deficit is really bad and causes unemployment, which proves that there are lots of famous stupid people.
 
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