Assessment of the first consensus prediction on climate change

[westwall]

"Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation's icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Widespread warming

That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska."

The cooling is widespread -- holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It's most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.



The new nippiness began with a vengeance in 2005, after more than a century that saw temperatures generally veer warmer in Alaska, the report says. With lots of ice to lose, the state had heated up about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, in line with rising global greenhouse gas emissions, note the Alaska Climate Center researchers, Gerd Wendler, L. Chen and Blake Moore. After a "sudden temperature increase" in Alaska starting in 1977, the warmest decade on record occurred in the 1980s, followed by another jump in the 1990s, they note. The third warmest decade was the 1920s, by the way."








While the globe warms and people swelter, Alaska is chilling | Alaska Dispatch

Have you seen evidence that PDOs don't change or that Alaska is the whole world?

The warmists claim is that Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine". The canary is freezing its collective ass off.

When will you acknowledge that the claims made by the warmists are wrong. Until you admit basic facts it is you who are the troll.

Hello troll.

 

[Dubya]

What you did was invoke a variation on Pascal's wager to try and worm your lame-assed scarmongering past people you believe to be rubes....And you failed.

Now go spread your warmist doomsayer negative waves over at Daily Kooks or HuffyPuffy.

You just don't have anything of value to add to a climate change discussion, so you troll.

Pffffft...You got your fallacious bullshit argument called for the fallacious bullshit it is.

Talk about not adding anything of value.

I post primary source content and you troll.

 

[Dubya]

"Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation's icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Widespread warming

That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska."

The cooling is widespread -- holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It's most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.



The new nippiness began with a vengeance in 2005, after more than a century that saw temperatures generally veer warmer in Alaska, the report says. With lots of ice to lose, the state had heated up about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, in line with rising global greenhouse gas emissions, note the Alaska Climate Center researchers, Gerd Wendler, L. Chen and Blake Moore. After a "sudden temperature increase" in Alaska starting in 1977, the warmest decade on record occurred in the 1980s, followed by another jump in the 1990s, they note. The third warmest decade was the 1920s, by the way."








While the globe warms and people swelter, Alaska is chilling | Alaska Dispatch

Have you seen evidence that PDOs don't change or that Alaska is the whole world?

The warmists claim is that Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine". The canary is freezing its collective ass off.

When will you acknowledge that the claims made by the warmists are wrong. Until you admit basic facts it is you who are the troll.

Hello troll.

So post a source where warmist claim Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine!"

Alaska isn't the arctic sea ice or the June snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Alaska isn't Greenland.

You couldn't have been a scientist, because you post things you make up and pretend they are true.

It doesn't take scientific training to see 97% of Greenland melting during a so-called 150 year event, record minimum arctic sea ice that has shattered all records and specifically volume records and noticed that the June snow cover anomaly was three times the size of Greenland. The remaining arctic sea ice at it's minimum was about the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Meteorologists are pointing out the change is affecting the jet stream causing extreme weather events.

When you see all that happening, continue to go on the internet and post things like that crap you posted about submarines at the North Pole, you have no credibility as a scientist or a person for that matter. You have demonstated you will willfully post lies to suit your agenda. Your kind is not going to save the human race from unnecessary expenses and is going to cost the human race more than more of their money.

 

[westwall]

Have you seen evidence that PDOs don't change or that Alaska is the whole world?

The warmists claim is that Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine". The canary is freezing its collective ass off.

When will you acknowledge that the claims made by the warmists are wrong. Until you admit basic facts it is you who are the troll.

Hello troll.

So post a source where warmist claim Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine!"

Alaska isn't the arctic sea ice or the June snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Alaska isn't Greenland.

You couldn't have been a scientist, because you post things you make up and pretend they are true.

It doesn't take scientific training to see 97% of Greenland melting during a so-called 150 year event, record minimum arctic sea ice that has shattered all records and specifically volume records and noticed that the June snow cover anomaly was three times the size of Greenland. The remaining arctic sea ice at it's minimum was about the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Meteorologists are pointing out the change is affecting the jet stream causing extreme weather events.

When you see all that happening, continue to go on the internet and post things like that crap you posted about submarines at the North Pole, you have no credibility as a scientist or a person for that matter. You have demonstated you will willfully post lies to suit your agenda. Your kind is not going to save the human race from unnecessary expenses and is going to cost the human race more than more of their money.

Sure thing troll. You don't "discuss" things at all. you spew your propaganda and expect people to listen to you.

Not on this planet little troll.

 

[Dubya]

The warmists claim is that Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine". The canary is freezing its collective ass off.

When will you acknowledge that the claims made by the warmists are wrong. Until you admit basic facts it is you who are the troll.

Hello troll.

So post a source where warmist claim Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine!"

Alaska isn't the arctic sea ice or the June snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Alaska isn't Greenland.

You couldn't have been a scientist, because you post things you make up and pretend they are true.

It doesn't take scientific training to see 97% of Greenland melting during a so-called 150 year event, record minimum arctic sea ice that has shattered all records and specifically volume records and noticed that the June snow cover anomaly was three times the size of Greenland. The remaining arctic sea ice at it's minimum was about the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Meteorologists are pointing out the change is affecting the jet stream causing extreme weather events.

When you see all that happening, continue to go on the internet and post things like that crap you posted about submarines at the North Pole, you have no credibility as a scientist or a person for that matter. You have demonstated you will willfully post lies to suit your agenda. Your kind is not going to save the human race from unnecessary expenses and is going to cost the human race more than more of their money.

Sure thing troll. You don't "discuss" things at all. you spew your propaganda and expect people to listen to you.

Not on this planet little troll.

You're the only person I've ever seen claim Alaska is the "canary in the coal mine."

If you didn't make it up, why can't you find a source to show someone else saying it?

 

[westwall]

So post a source where warmist claim Alaska is "the canary in the coal mine!"

Alaska isn't the arctic sea ice or the June snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. Alaska isn't Greenland.

You couldn't have been a scientist, because you post things you make up and pretend they are true.

It doesn't take scientific training to see 97% of Greenland melting during a so-called 150 year event, record minimum arctic sea ice that has shattered all records and specifically volume records and noticed that the June snow cover anomaly was three times the size of Greenland. The remaining arctic sea ice at it's minimum was about the area of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Meteorologists are pointing out the change is affecting the jet stream causing extreme weather events.

When you see all that happening, continue to go on the internet and post things like that crap you posted about submarines at the North Pole, you have no credibility as a scientist or a person for that matter. You have demonstated you will willfully post lies to suit your agenda. Your kind is not going to save the human race from unnecessary expenses and is going to cost the human race more than more of their money.

Sure thing troll. You don't "discuss" things at all. you spew your propaganda and expect people to listen to you.

Not on this planet little troll.

You're the only person I've ever seen claim Alaska is the "canary in the coal mine."

If you didn't make it up, why can't you find a source to show someone else saying it?

Gosh but you're a poor propagandist. Don't you know it is best not to ask for things that you really don't want to see. You just might get it....

"On average Alaska has warmed by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years. There are widespread consequences such as melting glaciers and insect-devastated forest in response to this temerature change. Scientists say Alaska is like a canary in a coal mine, foreshadowing the types of changes we can expect for the rest of the world."

Scientific American Frontiers . Hot Times in Alaska. Canary in a Coal Mine | PBS

Kapow! As Batman would say....

 

[Dubya]

Sure thing troll. You don't "discuss" things at all. you spew your propaganda and expect people to listen to you.

Not on this planet little troll.

You're the only person I've ever seen claim Alaska is the "canary in the coal mine."

If you didn't make it up, why can't you find a source to show someone else saying it?

Gosh but you're a poor propagandist. Don't you know it is best not to ask for things that you really don't want to see. You just might get it....

"On average Alaska has warmed by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years. There are widespread consequences such as melting glaciers and insect-devastated forest in response to this temerature change. Scientists say Alaska is like a canary in a coal mine, foreshadowing the types of changes we can expect for the rest of the world."

Scientific American Frontiers . Hot Times in Alaska. Canary in a Coal Mine | PBS

Kapow! As Batman would say....

That's the title of a PBS documentary and not a statement by a scientist. I said I've never heard a scientist calling Alaska the "canary in the coal mine", but I've heard it many times about the arctic sea ice.

Most of the climate in Alaska is affected by the PDO and the PDO fluctuates. That just means the waters off Alaska get cooler and the waters off Asia get warmer. Now, why wouldn't a geologist know about that major climate pattern and how it fluctuates?

Any scientist who would concentrate solely on the climate of Alaska would have to be a total idiot. They've even reconstructed the past PDO history from proxies. The scientist would have to be so stupid, it would be like ignoring ENSO and focusing on areas affected by it.

Now, picture what's going to happen in Alaska when a strong El Nino occurs again and the PDO switches from negative to positive, like it's done throughout history?

 

[Oddball]

You just don't have anything of value to add to a climate change discussion, so you troll.

Pffffft...You got your fallacious bullshit argument called for the fallacious bullshit it is.

Talk about not adding anything of value.

I post primary source content and you troll.

What you posted was a logical fallacy that any high school debate clubber could've smoked out and you got called on it...Loser.

 

[Old Rocks]

"Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation's icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Widespread warming

That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska."

The cooling is widespread -- holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It's most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.



The new nippiness began with a vengeance in 2005, after more than a century that saw temperatures generally veer warmer in Alaska, the report says. With lots of ice to lose, the state had heated up about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, in line with rising global greenhouse gas emissions, note the Alaska Climate Center researchers, Gerd Wendler, L. Chen and Blake Moore. After a "sudden temperature increase" in Alaska starting in 1977, the warmest decade on record occurred in the 1980s, followed by another jump in the 1990s, they note. The third warmest decade was the 1920s, by the way."








While the globe warms and people swelter, Alaska is chilling | Alaska Dispatch

Hell these temps don't look that bad.

Weather Forecast - USA, US - Local & Long Range | Weather Underground

Lowest temp, Barrow, -7. It has been colder than that in Burns, Oregon, already this winter.

 

[westwall]

You're the only person I've ever seen claim Alaska is the "canary in the coal mine."

If you didn't make it up, why can't you find a source to show someone else saying it?

Gosh but you're a poor propagandist. Don't you know it is best not to ask for things that you really don't want to see. You just might get it....

"On average Alaska has warmed by about 4 degrees Fahrenheit over the last 150 years. There are widespread consequences such as melting glaciers and insect-devastated forest in response to this temerature change. Scientists say Alaska is like a canary in a coal mine, foreshadowing the types of changes we can expect for the rest of the world."

Scientific American Frontiers . Hot Times in Alaska. Canary in a Coal Mine | PBS

Kapow! As Batman would say....

That's the title of a PBS documentary and not a statement by a scientist. I said I've never heard a scientist calling Alaska the "canary in the coal mine", but I've heard it many times about the arctic sea ice.

Most of the climate in Alaska is affected by the PDO and the PDO fluctuates. That just means the waters off Alaska get cooler and the waters off Asia get warmer. Now, why wouldn't a geologist know about that major climate pattern and how it fluctuates?

Any scientist who would concentrate solely on the climate of Alaska would have to be a total idiot. They've even reconstructed the past PDO history from proxies. The scientist would have to be so stupid, it would be like ignoring ENSO and focusing on areas affected by it.

Now, picture what's going to happen in Alaska when a strong El Nino occurs again and the PDO switches from negative to positive, like it's done throughout history?

Sure thing little troll....My wife predicted this would be your response. She's a psychologist and she has you nailed! Which, sad to say is not hard.

 

[westwall]

"Alaska is going rogue on climate change.

Defiant as ever, the state that gave rise to Sarah Palin is bucking the mainstream yet again: While global temperatures surge hotter and the ice-cap crumbles, the nation's icebox is getting even icier.

That may not be news to Alaskans coping with another round of 50-below during the coldest winter in two decades, or to the mariners locked out of the Bering Sea this spring by record ice growth.

Then again, it might. The 49th state has long been labeled one of the fastest-warming spots on the planet. But that's so 20th Century.

In the first decade since 2000, the 49th state cooled 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit.

Widespread warming

That's a "large value for a decade," the Alaska Climate Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks said in "The First Decade of the New Century: A Cooling Trend for Most of Alaska."

The cooling is widespread -- holding true for 19 of the 20 National Weather Service stations sprinkled from one corner of Alaska to the other, the paper notes. It's most significant in Western Alaska, where King Salmon on the Alaska Peninsula saw temperatures drop most sharply, a significant 4.5 degrees for the decade, the report says.



The new nippiness began with a vengeance in 2005, after more than a century that saw temperatures generally veer warmer in Alaska, the report says. With lots of ice to lose, the state had heated up about twice as fast as the rest of the planet, in line with rising global greenhouse gas emissions, note the Alaska Climate Center researchers, Gerd Wendler, L. Chen and Blake Moore. After a "sudden temperature increase" in Alaska starting in 1977, the warmest decade on record occurred in the 1980s, followed by another jump in the 1990s, they note. The third warmest decade was the 1920s, by the way."








While the globe warms and people swelter, Alaska is chilling | Alaska Dispatch

Hell these temps don't look that bad.

Weather Forecast - USA, US - Local & Long Range | Weather Underground

Lowest temp, Barrow, -7. It has been colder than that in Burns, Oregon, already this winter.

True, it's been colder here in Nevada as well. Hell it was -10 in Elko last night. But that's not the point is it? I do find it amusing that when it's warm it's the end of the world with you folks....but when it's cold...ohhhh that's nothing what funny little trolls you are.

 

[Oddball]

Wait a minute....I though weather and climate were different!


Or was that last week?

 

[westwall]

Wait a minute....I though weather and climate were different!


Or was that last week?

Funny that. They claim to be all sciencey and all, but somehow physics only applys to one side of their equations, never both. I wonder how they rationalise that away?

 

[Trakar]

Sure thing little troll....My wife predicted this would be your response. She's a psychologist and she has you nailed! Which, sad to say is not hard.

You must find being married to a psychologist (too bad she isn't a psychiatrist then she could diagnose and actually medically treat mental disorders) extremely convenient.

 

[Old Rocks]

Wait a minute....I though weather and climate were different!


Or was that last week?

Funny that. They claim to be all sciencey and all, but somehow physics only applys to one side of their equations, never both. I wonder how they rationalise that away?

AGU, as in American Geophysical Society, one of the scientific societies that make up the American Institute of Physics, the single largest scientific society in the world.

AGU Position Statement

Human Impacts on Climate

Adopted by Council December 2003
Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007

The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons—are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century. Global average surface temperatures increased on average by about 0.6°C over the period 1956–2006. As of 2006, eleven of the previous twelve years were warmer than any others since 1850. The observed rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is expected to continue and lead to the disappearance of summertime ice within this century. Evidence from most oceans and all continents except Antarctica shows warming attributable to human activities. Recent changes in many physical and biological systems are linked with this regional climate change. A sustained research effort, involving many AGU members and summarized in the 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, continues to improve our scientific understanding of the climate.

During recent millennia of relatively stable climate, civilization became established and populations have grown rapidly. In the next 50 years, even the lower limit of impending climate change—an additional global mean warming of 1°C above the last decade—is far beyond the range of climate variability experienced during the past thousand years and poses global problems in planning for and adapting to it. Warming greater than 2°C above 19th century levels is projected to be disruptive, reducing global agricultural productivity, causing widespread loss of biodiversity, and—if sustained over centuries—melting much of the Greenland ice sheet with ensuing rise in sea level of several meters. If this 2°C warming is to be avoided, then our net annual emissions of CO2 must be reduced by more than 50 percent within this century. With such projections, there are many sources of scientific uncertainty, but none are known that could make the impact of climate change inconsequential. Given the uncertainty in climate projections, there can be surprises that may cause more dramatic disruptions than anticipated from the most probable model projections.

 

[Old Rocks]

AGU Position Statement: Human Impacts on Climate

With climate change, as with ozone depletion, the human footprint on Earth is apparent. The cause of disruptive climate change, unlike ozone depletion, is tied to energy use and runs through modern society. Solutions will necessarily involve all aspects of society. Mitigation strategies and adaptation responses will call for collaborations across science, technology, industry, and government. Members of the AGU, as part of the scientific community, collectively have special responsibilities: to pursue research needed to understand it; to educate the public on the causes, risks, and hazards; and to communicate clearly and objectively with those who can implement policies to shape future climate.


Permissions: Members everywhere are encouraged to help inform the policy making process in their home locales with thoughtful presentation of scientific viewpoints. Council adoption of position statements is one way that the Union can assist in this process. Any member may use an AGU policy statement in discussions with local or national policy makers as an official statement of the Union. If you use excerpts from a statement, then you should not attribute those as a Union position. Societies anywhere may use an AGU position statement with or without attribution as a basis for developing their own statements.

 

[Oddball]

 

[Old Rocks]

And? One expects and idiotic response from an idiot.

 

[Dubya]

Wait a minute....I though weather and climate were different!


Or was that last week?

Funny that. They claim to be all sciencey and all, but somehow physics only applys to one side of their equations, never both. I wonder how they rationalise that away?

If you knew anything about physics, you would know temperatrure is only a proxy of heat.

If you knew anything about memory, you would know you brought up the connection between weather and climate change.

 

[IanC]

Well, obviously, in your attempts at massive information overload, you failed to even read the piece. Here, I'll help.. here's one pretty alarming part:



There's your beloved climatologist... scared to even have his data looked at because someone might question it.

What a fucking joke..

Jones is worse than a joke. his original UHI paper was a fraud, and he knew it at least after the fact, yet he continued to cite it.

If you think Jones is worse than a joke, let's play Paleoclimatology 001 and you tell us how to construct the climate of the past 1000 years!

I would prefer to talk about Jones' UHI paper. it was done with Chinese temperature series. Jones said his rural series were long standing stations with no movements and continuous records. it turns out that he defined rural as less than 200,000 people (?!?!), and of his 60+ sites more than fifty had moved! when he was asked for his data he said he had lost it! (just like he lost his CRUTemp data). his co-author in the US was brought up on fraud charges but managed to blame a yet another un-credited co-author back in China. Jones claimed a 0.005C/yr effect but they decided that the proper course of action was to just add 0.005C to the error bars.

once Jones had been informed of the multitude of mistakes in this paper did he retract it or even put an addendum on it saying that it was unreliable? of course not! he even continued to cite it.


when I have more time perhaps we should discuss the selection of proxies used for temp reconstructions. the cherry picking, faulty methodologies, and lack of updates when new info is available is just about the strongest sign of scientific malfeasance possible.