Old Rocks
Diamond Member
Stefan Rahmstorf1, Grant Foster2 and Anny Cazenave3
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
2 Tempo Analytics, 303 Campbell Road, Garland, ME 04939, USA
3 Laboratoire dEtudes en G´eophysique et Oc´eanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France
E-mail: [email protected]
Received 19 July 2012
Accepted for publication 9 November 2012
Published 27 November 2012
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/7/044035
Abstract
We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/pdf/1748-9326_7_4_044035.pdf
1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
2 Tempo Analytics, 303 Campbell Road, Garland, ME 04939, USA
3 Laboratoire dEtudes en G´eophysique et Oc´eanographie Spatiales, Toulouse, France
E-mail: [email protected]
Received 19 July 2012
Accepted for publication 9 November 2012
Published 27 November 2012
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/7/044035
Abstract
We analyse global temperature and sea-level data for the past few decades and compare them to projections published in the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results show that global temperature continues to increase in good agreement with the best estimates of the IPCC, especially if we account for the effects of short-term variability due to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, volcanic activity and solar variability. The rate of sea-level rise of the past few decades, on the other hand, is greater than projected by the IPCC models. This suggests that IPCC sea-level projections for the future may also be biased low.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/pdf/1748-9326_7_4_044035.pdf
