Anyone selling their stocks tomorrow?

[william the wie]

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

--and here I thought I was the only one that felt that way. Aircraft pilots describe their job the same way, as being hours of prolonged boredom punctuated by moments of shear terror.

My strategy is so heavily weighted towards boredom that there is nearly zero terror. The meltdown barely touched us but it has been 25 years since we have had any debt. Gail's meltdown over a sewer pipeline breaking below our slab right after she got the house painted with Rhino-Shield was the most excitement we've had in years. And if worry keeps you awake at night research my current put portfolio is NYMT, NGD, FRO, CPLP & CMRE. If that doesn't put you to sleep you need medical help.

 

[Picaro]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

Graphs!!! They're, like, all mathy n stuff, really mean a lot. I love graphs!

https://www.theonion.com/blue-line-jumps-11-percent-1819565647

Ecstatic investors are comparing the blue line to the left side of a very tall, steep blue mountain.

 

[william the wie]

Get "The Stock Trader's Almanac" for graphs galore

 

[expat_panama]

NYMT, NGD, FRO, CPLP & CMRE

My entire portfolio is 3 ETF's that emulate the S&P500, the NASDAQ, and the Russel 2000. The way I make it interesting is timing surges and dips. It worked great for about a year and then the past month has turned me all around.

Get "The Stock Trader's Almanac" for graphs galore

tx, I'll check that out. I'm moving back over to Trade Station now that my two favorite brokers Scottrade & TDAmeritrade merged; hopefully Tradestation will make up for what I've lost w/ the merger.

 

[william the wie]

I created a thread about the cashflow into the capital markets but in simple terms I figure that May calls should be quite profitable to me if I get issues put to me in April but July or even August will be even more profitable.

 

[MarathonMike]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.

 

[Picaro]

If think interest rates are going up then just short utilities. Why make it hard?

 

[expat_panama]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.

What I run up against is the way market conditions change so radically at times. One trading pattern may work just fine for months and then out of nowhere all the signs pointing one way suddenly point the other.

My take: uncertain policy makes for unstable markets. The two decades from '85 to '05 were relatively reasonable w/ what to expect (not withstanding Oct. '87). Ever since '09 it's been "nobody knows nothin" ---institutional managers throwing up their hands while the masses flee to indexed ETF's.

 

[william the wie]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.

What I run up against is the way market conditions change so radically at times. One trading pattern may work just fine for months and then out of nowhere all the signs pointing one way suddenly point the other.

My take: uncertain policy makes for unstable markets. The two decades from '85 to '05 were relatively reasonable w/ what to expect (not withstanding Oct. '87). Ever since '09 it's been "nobody knows nothin" ---institutional managers throwing up their hands while the masses flee to indexed ETF's.

I find the opposite is true. I was doing an informal internship in 87 while I was going to UNF to get my degree in finance. Everyone had an easy out until suddenly they didn't, the same was true for LTCM, Dotcom and the housing bubble. Certainty causes crashes. The supply of idiots with money is of necessity limited and they are the ones who lose the money that permits the stability.

 

[Picaro]

Bailouts and limited liability keep the markets solvent, so the supply of money is endless, at least for now. that's the only reason those nifty graphs show constant 'growth', though the interpretations of them are just wrong as well, as they don't reflect the huge losses experienced by the 'outsiders', just the 'wins' by insiders propped up by subsidies, bailouts, and tax exemptions, etc., etc. There is no real life continuity in market gains. Without the limited liability scam and artificial restrictions on short selling, nobody would dump nearly as much money in stocks, especially given how grossly over-capitalized most of the dwindling handful of 'market movers' are now.

 

[william the wie]

Bailouts and limited liability keep the markets solvent, so the supply of money is endless, at least for now. that's the only reason those nifty graphs show constant 'growth', though the interpretations of them are just wrong as well, as they don't reflect the huge losses experienced by the 'outsiders', just the 'wins' by insiders propped up by subsidies, bailouts, and tax exemptions, etc., etc. There is no real life continuity in market gains. Without the limited liability scam and artificial restrictions on short selling, nobody would dump nearly as much money in stocks, especially given how grossly over-capitalized most of the dwindling handful of 'market movers' are now.

The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety. Sessions' firing of McCabe was timed for maximum effect on the deep state. When he has the full IG report he can and will arrest Mueller and his team for use of perjured testimony to obtain warrants. The rollovers for plea deals will include many D members of congress. At which point his threat to sequester DOJ grants to sanctuary states and cities will cause default in many blue states. If, as he hopes, this destroys the mid-term correction the Ds are in big trouble. A side effect of destroying the hopes of the Ds is that the markets will crash to some degree.

 

[Manonthestreet]

my 401 is marginally ahead since the downturn/stall. I am heavily weighted toward small cap, and co stock.
3% large cap, 8% bond

 

[MarathonMike]

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.

What I run up against is the way market conditions change so radically at times. One trading pattern may work just fine for months and then out of nowhere all the signs pointing one way suddenly point the other.

My take: uncertain policy makes for unstable markets. The two decades from '85 to '05 were relatively reasonable w/ what to expect (not withstanding Oct. '87). Ever since '09 it's been "nobody knows nothin" ---institutional managers throwing up their hands while the masses flee to indexed ETF's.

I have a good friend who pays a fund manager 5%

... Nobody loses money in Vegas, either, yet the place is full of luxury casinos and has been for decades...

Maybe the fact that casino owners do well shows there's a very big difference between gambling and holding shares in casino corporations.

Of course nobody knows the for sure what the future holds, but it's not that big of a risk to bet that total value of U.S. corporations will grow while the population of the U.S. increases and creates new wealth. It's what's been happening for hundreds of years:

boredom tolerance and discipline is the key.

In my youthful exuberance I would try to go for the home run picks, but I learned from painful failures that to be successful, you need to be a "singles" hitter if you want to be a successful trader.

What I run up against is the way market conditions change so radically at times. One trading pattern may work just fine for months and then out of nowhere all the signs pointing one way suddenly point the other.

My take: uncertain policy makes for unstable markets. The two decades from '85 to '05 were relatively reasonable w/ what to expect (not withstanding Oct. '87). Ever since '09 it's been "nobody knows nothin" ---institutional managers throwing up their hands while the masses flee to indexed ETF's.

I find the opposite is true. I was doing an informal internship in 87 while I was going to UNF to get my degree in finance. Everyone had an easy out until suddenly they didn't, the same was true for LTCM, Dotcom and the housing bubble. Certainty causes crashes. The supply of idiots with money is of necessity limited and they are the ones who lose the money that permits the stability.

LTCM was a remarkable example of why you don't hand your money over to someone else. If you want to invest in index funds, do it yourself. If you want to trade individual stocks do it yourself. One of my best friends pays a guy 5% of his account value to manage his money. I told him I think he's nuts but I guess he's happy with the performance of his account.

 

[william the wie]

Loss minimization is far more important than profit maximization.

 

[expat_panama]

...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...

Some how that doesn't jump out at me. What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--

--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices. That means bond values are falling.

 

[expat_panama]

...he's happy with the performance of his account.

Sounds like a buddy of mine who said he was happy paying someone else to manage his money --after all, those annual reports looked just fine. Then 2009 came along...

 

[william the wie]

...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...

Some how that doesn't jump out at me. What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--

--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices. That means bond values are falling.

 

[william the wie]

...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...

Some how that doesn't jump out at me. What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--

--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices. That means bond values are falling.

Not since the latest rate hike. 3.0 yield drops to 2.8 in less than a month, when the new Fed chair got appointed to rein in wage push inflation?

What nobody realized as recently as early Feb.is that the differences in the effects of the tax bill state to state would be so much greater and hit so much quicker than anybody anticipated, including me and I was dismissed as a chicken little on the subject. NJ, IL and CA are on life support because of dropping after all state, local and federal taxes take home pay. Here in FL the unsolicited bids for my house went up by 50% the day after the tax bill passed. Home stead tax exemption increases may also be on the ballot this year.

 

[MarathonMike]

...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...

Some how that doesn't jump out at me. What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--

--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices. That means bond values are falling.

Not since the latest rate hike. 3.0 yield drops to 2.8 in less than a month, when the new Fed chair got appointed to rein in wage push inflation?

What nobody realized as recently as early Feb.is that the differences in the effects of the tax bill state to state would be so much greater and hit so much quicker than anybody anticipated, including me and I was dismissed as a chicken little on the subject. NJ, IL and CA are on life support because of dropping after all state, local and federal taxes take home pay. Here in FL the unsolicited bids for my house went up by 50% the day after the tax bill passed. Home stead tax exemption increases may also be on the ballot this year.

Wow 50%? Dang son, are you going to move? I'd have to seriously consider it.

 

[william the wie]

...The price rises of the 10 year treasury says you're wrong. That is a flight to safety...

Some how that doesn't jump out at me. What I got is 10-year T-bills seeing rising interest rates--

--which means nobody's buying 'em at the older lower rates and the Fed's are forced to pay more to borrow by selling a given amount at maturity for falling prices. That means bond values are falling.

Not since the latest rate hike. 3.0 yield drops to 2.8 in less than a month, when the new Fed chair got appointed to rein in wage push inflation?

What nobody realized as recently as early Feb.is that the differences in the effects of the tax bill state to state would be so much greater and hit so much quicker than anybody anticipated, including me and I was dismissed as a chicken little on the subject. NJ, IL and CA are on life support because of dropping after all state, local and federal taxes take home pay. Here in FL the unsolicited bids for my house went up by 50% the day after the tax bill passed. Home stead tax exemption increases may also be on the ballot this year.

Wow 50%? Dang son, are you going to move? I'd have to seriously consider it.

Until and unless we can get a house that makes it easier for Gail to go to Mayo, my answer is wait and see and Gail's answer is hell no. Money is nice but not as nice as not having to break in another wife. It has taken 40 years to get her up to the crappy level of training I now enjoy.