Another factor to debunk global warming

DavidS

Anti-Tea Party Member
Sep 7, 2008
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Tornadoes.

In An Inconvenient Truth, Al Gore and company said that global warming was increasing the number of tornadoes in the US. He claimed 2004 was the highest year ever for tornadoes in the US. In his PowerPoint slide deck (on which the movie was based) he sometimes uses this chart (form the NOAA):


image060.jpg



Whoa, that’s scary. Any moron can see there is a trend there. Its like a silver bullet against skeptics or something. But wait. Hasn’t tornado detection technology changed over the last 50 years? Today, we have doppler radar, so we can detect even smaller size 1 tornadoes, even if no one on the ground actually spots them (which happens fairly often). But how did they measure smaller tornadoes in 1955 if no one spotted them? Answer: They didn’t. In effect, this graph is measuring apples and oranges. It is measuring all the tornadoes we spotted by human eye in 1955 with all the tornadoes we spotted with doppler radar in 2000. The NOAA tries to make this problem clear on their web site.

With increased national doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the true variability and trend in tornado frequency in the US, the total number of strong to violent tornadoes (F3 to F5 category on the Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Dopplar radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar chart below indicates there has been little trend in the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years.

What most of you don't know is that a wedge tornado (see example below) which can have multiple vortexes can wreak billions of dollars in damage if it lands in a populated city it could be designated an EF-5.


tornado3.jpg


However, what most of you probably don't know is that if the same tornado lands in the middle of a grass field and causes no damage - it would be rated an EF-0. It could have 300 mph winds and still be classified as such.

We also have more trained spotters, storm chasers, computer equipment and technology that helps us detect a tornado from thousands of miles away. Right now I can hope onto my GRLevel3 software and look out for hook echos and have the software analyze one and it would estimate the winds inside of the tornado.

In fact, it can even create a composite 3D image of the tornado.

window_volume_display.png


With all of this software, it is no wonder why there are more tornadoes being reported. But Al Gore won't tell you that. Al Gore will tell you that Global Warming is the reason why there's an increase in the frequency of tornadoes. And he's wrong. And he knows he's wrong. But he also knows that you don't know that he's wrong and that you'll buy his BS which makes him a multi-multi-millionaire.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

Aah ... but here's the thing ... all environut scientists do, and most do for more funding (as with many studies). It was actually an eye opener for many people, but not in helpful way to the hoaxers of GW. It demonstrated just how far the "love everything" people will go just to make a point, and money. When science gets too muddied with so much exaggeration and lies it becomes more and more difficult to find the truth, and the truth is never as simple as "if we do A then B will happen", as any real scientist will tell you.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

Aah ... but here's the thing ... all environut scientists do, and most do for more funding (as with many studies). It was actually an eye opener for many people, but not in helpful way to the hoaxers of GW. It demonstrated just how far the "love everything" people will go just to make a point, and money. When science gets too muddied with so much exaggeration and lies it becomes more and more difficult to find the truth, and the truth is never as simple as "if we do A then B will happen", as any real scientist will tell you.

Very true, that's why I'm not a big fan of computer modeling, but the facts remain the same, all data gathering shows were warming.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

Aah ... but here's the thing ... all environut scientists do, and most do for more funding (as with many studies). It was actually an eye opener for many people, but not in helpful way to the hoaxers of GW. It demonstrated just how far the "love everything" people will go just to make a point, and money. When science gets too muddied with so much exaggeration and lies it becomes more and more difficult to find the truth, and the truth is never as simple as "if we do A then B will happen", as any real scientist will tell you.

Very true, that's why I'm not a big fan of computer modeling, but the facts remain the same, all data gathering shows were warming.

However only by the "popular" scientists, unpopular ones vary more and are far more reliable as they are not seeking more funding nor the approval of their peers. The popular results hinge on the A=B argument, while the unpopular ones do not. Data gathering only shows change, which just happens to be the only constant in the universe. If you look at the correlation of change and what we have done since they first "noticed" it nothing we do is effecting it, thus the only truly logical explanation is that we cannot effect it as much as they claim. The amount of pollution we put out as a species has decreased over the last decade, not increased, while many cultures are not changing their habits those of us who have (normally with little choice) have caused a difference, but still the environmental change occurs without end and there is no indication that anything we have done has slowed it in any way.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

............

Actually, the average of the proxies that measure that sort of thing indicate that we have cooled since the high temperature mark reached during this Interglacial about 8,000 years ago.

Image:Holocene Temperature Variations Rev.png - Global Warming Art

Also, during this interglacial, we have not yet reached the high temperatures posted during any of the previous 3 or 4 Interglacials.

Image:Ice Age Temperature Rev.png - Global Warming Art

Mr. Gore's movie was a piece of propaganda that was presented as a documentary and even granted an award by a fawning sychophantic group of sympathizers. It used Hollywood special effects presented as actual footage, rigged data to present false conclusions and was comprised almost entirely of half truth and inuendo.

This is an excellent example of horrible science.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

Damn, missed that gem of a contradiction ... :eusa_whistle:
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

What do you think the planet is supposed to do after an ice age? Cool down?
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

What do you think the planet is supposed to do after an ice age? Cool down?

By the normal Milankovic Cycles we should have already started a slow cooling prepatory to entering another glacial cycle a few thousand years down the world. We should not be seeing the rapid warming that we are seeing.

We are far above the previous high for CO2. 120,000 years ago, the CO2 was at 300 ppm. Today we are above 385 ppm. When we were at 300 ppm in the previous interglacial, the sea level was about 3 meters higher than today.

And I am concerned about the effects on the food supply for nearly 7 billion humans. We are already seeing effects there.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

What do you think the planet is supposed to do after an ice age? Cool down?

By the normal Milankovic Cycles we should have already started a slow cooling prepatory to entering another glacial cycle a few thousand years down the world. We should not be seeing the rapid warming that we are seeing.

We are far above the previous high for CO2. 120,000 years ago, the CO2 was at 300 ppm. Today we are above 385 ppm. When we were at 300 ppm in the previous interglacial, the sea level was about 3 meters higher than today.

And I am concerned about the effects on the food supply for nearly 7 billion humans. We are already seeing effects there.

You really don't read what you post sometimes.

The word "start" implies a tapering off then downturn, which is usually a gradual shift not an instant change, otherwise your glacial period would come way sooner than 1000 years.
 
An Inconvenient Truth cherry picked anomalies, stretched the truth and use skewed statistics to try to prove a point, typical Hollywood style. Good overall message, with out the hype and scare tactics it could have been better, but I didn't really care for the movie because it didn't stay 100% accurate. It still doesn't change the fact our planet has been warming since the last major ice age and the last minor ice age.

What do you think the planet is supposed to do after an ice age? Cool down?

By the normal Milankovic Cycles we should have already started a slow cooling prepatory to entering another glacial cycle a few thousand years down the world. We should not be seeing the rapid warming that we are seeing.

Number 1: The Milankovic Theory is flawed. #2 - We're not seeing any kind of rapid warming whatsoever. Where have you been? We've been in a La Nina phase since 2007.

We are far above the previous high for CO2. 120,000 years ago, the CO2 was at 300 ppm.

Sorry, we weren't around 120,000 years ago. We have no idea what the CO2 levels were back then. We can speculate as much as we want - but it's just that: A Guess.

Today we are above 385 ppm. When we were at 300 ppm in the previous interglacial, the sea level was about 3 meters higher than today.

By the way, you might want to look into the methane pockets beneath the surface of the arctic. That might have something to do with a major increase in CO2.

Exclusive: The methane time bomb - Climate Change, Environment - The Independent

And I am concerned about the effects on the food supply for nearly 7 billion humans. We are already seeing effects there.

:rollseyes:
 
What do you think the planet is supposed to do after an ice age? Cool down?

By the normal Milankovic Cycles we should have already started a slow cooling prepatory to entering another glacial cycle a few thousand years down the world. We should not be seeing the rapid warming that we are seeing.

Number 1: The Milankovic Theory is flawed. #2 - We're not seeing any kind of rapid warming whatsoever. Where have you been? We've been in a La Nina phase since 2007.



Sorry, we weren't around 120,000 years ago. We have no idea what the CO2 levels were back then. We can speculate as much as we want - but it's just that: A Guess.

Today we are above 385 ppm. When we were at 300 ppm in the previous interglacial, the sea level was about 3 meters higher than today.

By the way, you might want to look into the methane pockets beneath the surface of the arctic. That might have something to do with a major increase in CO2.

Exclusive: The methane time bomb - Climate Change, Environment - The Independent

And I am concerned about the effects on the food supply for nearly 7 billion humans. We are already seeing effects there.

:rollseyes:

1. Really? Explain that statement please.

2. Icecaps losing gigatons of ice yearly, alpine glaciers worldwide rapidly retreating, and ocean temperatures rising both in shallow and deep water. But we are not rapidly warming?

3. We know very well from ice cores as to what the CO2 levels were 12,000 years ago, in fact, even back to 650,000 years ago.

4. Lordy, lordy, not only have I been well aware of the CO2 and CH4 in permafrost for decades, but the last 20 years we have mapped the huge amounts of clathrate on the continental shelves. And recognized the geological periods where these types of deposits outgassed and caused major extinction periods.
Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
Rollseyes.
 
By the normal Milankovic Cycles we should have already started a slow cooling prepatory to entering another glacial cycle a few thousand years down the world. We should not be seeing the rapid warming that we are seeing.

Number 1: The Milankovic Theory is flawed. #2 - We're not seeing any kind of rapid warming whatsoever. Where have you been? We've been in a La Nina phase since 2007.



Sorry, we weren't around 120,000 years ago. We have no idea what the CO2 levels were back then. We can speculate as much as we want - but it's just that: A Guess.



By the way, you might want to look into the methane pockets beneath the surface of the arctic. That might have something to do with a major increase in CO2.

Exclusive: The methane time bomb - Climate Change, Environment - The Independent

And I am concerned about the effects on the food supply for nearly 7 billion humans. We are already seeing effects there.
:rollseyes:

1. Really? Explain that statement please.

2. Icecaps losing gigatons of ice yearly, alpine glaciers worldwide rapidly retreating, and ocean temperatures rising both in shallow and deep water. But we are not rapidly warming?

3. We know very well from ice cores as to what the CO2 levels were 12,000 years ago, in fact, even back to 650,000 years ago.

4. Lordy, lordy, not only have I been well aware of the CO2 and CH4 in permafrost for decades, but the last 20 years we have mapped the huge amounts of clathrate on the continental shelves. And recognized the geological periods where these types of deposits outgassed and caused major extinction periods.
Catastrophic Fall in 2009 Global Food Production
Rollseyes.

Science is a wonderful tool - in fact 100 years ago we believed that poor people caused all diseases around the world. The less money you have, the more diseases you had in your body. This was a fact about 100 years ago.

50 years ago they told people with heart conditions to retire from work and not to over exert themselves. Today we tell them to exercise.

Today you tell me that we can look in "ice cores" and magically see how much CO2 we had 150,000 years ago. Tomorrow you will find another way to "venture a guess."

We don't know anything about this planet, let alone our universe or G-d. We should really study more before coming up with any kind of an educated guess. Even today's technology is somewhat limited in its scope to measure climate.
 
Ice Core CO2 data;

Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores
Graphics Digital Data

Investigators
D.M. Etheridge, L.P. Steele, R.L. Langenfelds and R.J. Francey
Division of Atmospheric Research, CSIRO,
Aspendale, Victoria, Australia

J.-M. Barnola
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement,
Saint Martin d'Hères-Cedex, France

V.I. Morgan
Antarctic CRC and Australian Antarctic Division,
Hobart, Tasmania, Australia

Period of Record
1006 A.D.-1978 A.D.

Methods
The CO2 records presented here are derived from three ice cores obtained at Law Dome, East Antarctica from 1987 to 1993. The Law Dome site satisfies many of the desirable characteristics of an ideal ice core site for atmospheric CO2 reconstructions including negligible melting of the ice sheet surface, low concentrations of impurities, regular stratigraphic layering undisturbed at the surface by wind or at depth by ice flow, and high snow accumulation rate. Further details on the site, drilling, and cores are provided in Etheridge et al. (1996), Etheridge and Wookey (1989), and Morgan et al (1997).

Historical CO2 Records from the Law Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS Ice Cores
 
Temperature and CO2 Correlations Found in Ice Core Records
by Emmanuel Quiroz
Abstract
Antarctic ice core analysis has provided scientists with a history of climatic and atmospheric changes over the past quarter of a million years. A similar rise and fall of temperature and CO2 has been observed in all of the ice core records. Three main CO2 and temperature relations are suggested with supporting evidence, but uncertainties and outside factors need to be taken into account. These ambiguities make it unclear whether CO2 is a forcing factor on climate.

Introduction
In the 1950s, Roger Revelle recorded the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and temperatures in the mid-Pacific to find a relation between the two. After analyzing the data, Revelle suggested that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are a forcing factor on temperature through the greenhouse effect1, more commonly known as global warming. Al Gore pays tribute to Revelle's research in David Guggenheim's film An Inconvenient Truth (a documentary of Gore's attempt to inform the world about the moral challenge of global warming).2 In this film Gore presents a graph of ice core data from the past 600,000 years that reflects Revelle's proposed relationship between CO2 and temperature. But, as Al Gore acknowledges in the film, "The relationship is actually very complicated." There is continuing debate among researchers about whether ice core records show carbon dioxide affecting temperature or vice versa.3 The following review will investigate this relationship by examining recent research on Antarctic ice cores.

Scientist began to drill ice cores in the 1970s in order to construct a record of the atmosphere's temperature and CO2 concentration over the past hundred thousand years. They drill out cylindrical cores of ice from the ice caps and analyze the molecular composition of the ice. When the snow compacts into a layer of ice, tiny air bubbles of the atmosphere are encapsulated in the ice. The air in these atmosphere time capsules allows scientists to see the history of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Also, the water in the ice contains concentrations of oxygen and hydrogen isotopes that vary in enrichment as a function of temperature.4 Therefore, they are able to determine a history of the atmosphere's temperature through this relationship. Each year the annual snowfall compacts into a new layer of ice with the most recent near the surface. Scientists can then date the ice back by its depth. With this information scientists can figure out a correlation between CO2 and temperature over the past hundred thousand years.

The measurements taken from ice cores show that

Angles / 2008 : Temperature and CO2 Correlations Found in Ice Core Research by Emmanuel Quiroz
 
A Centrifuge-Based Technique for Dry Extraction of Air for Ice Core Studies of C

Title:
A Centrifuge-Based Technique for Dry Extraction of Air for Ice Core Studies of Carbon Dioxide.
Authors:
Grachev, A. M.; Brook, E. J.
Affiliation:
AA(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States ; [email protected]), AB(Department of Geosciences, Oregon State University, 104 Wilkinson Hall, Corvallis, OR 97331, United States ; [email protected])
Publication:
American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008, abstract #U31A-0012
Publication Date:
12/2008
Origin:
AGU
AGU Keywords:
0490 Trace gases, 0724 Ice cores (4932), 1610 Atmosphere (0315, 0325), 1694 Instruments and techniques
Abstract Copyright:
(c) 2008: American Geophysical Union
Bibliographic Code:
2008AGUFM.U31A0012G

Abstract
High resolution CO2 data from the Law Dome ice core document an abrupt ~10 ppm drop in CO2 at about 1600 AD (MacFarling Meure et al., Geophys. Res Lett., v. 33, L14810), which has been attributed to changes in human activities. CO2 measurements in ice cores are difficult, however, making verification of this feature an important task. We are undertaking a high-resolution study of CO2 between 1400 and 1800 AD in the WAIS Divide (Antarctica) ice core with a new dry extraction technique. The need for a dry extraction technique as opposed to a melt-refreeze technique in studies of CO2 from ice cores arises because of the well-documented artifacts in CO2 imposed by the presence of liquid water. Three dry-extraction methods have been employed by previous workers to measure CO2: needle-crushing method, ball-bearings method, and cheese-grater method (B. Stauffer, in: Encyclopedia of Quaternary Science, p. 1181, Elsevier 2007). Each has limitations, and we propose a simpler dry extraction technique, based on a large-capacity refrigerated centrifuge (the "centrifuge technique"), which eliminates the need to employ cryogenic temperatures to collect extracted gas and is more compatible with high sample throughput. The technique is now being tested on ~25-gram WAIS Divide samples in conjunction with CO2 measurements with a gas chromatograph. The technique employs a Beckman J- 6B centrifuge, in which evacuated stainless steel flask is placed: the flask has a weight inside positioned directly over a tall-standing piece of ice whose cross-section is small compared to that of the flask. Upon acceleration to 3000 rpm the weight moves down and presses the ice sample into a thin tablet covering flask's bottom, yielding the air extraction efficiency of ~80%. Preliminary tests suggest that precision and accuracy can be achieved at the level of ~1 ppm once the system is fine-tuned.
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Bibtex entry for this abstract Preferred format for this abstract (see Preferences)
 
David, these are just some of the articles on the methods used for determining the amount of CO2 in past times. One should know as much as possible about how this is determined before dismissing the results out of hand.
 
Ice core data also shows that we are in normal patterns of temperature flucuations. In fact it shows there were periods of much greater warmth than was experienced by the recent solar maximium.

Ice core data also shows that CO2 is a symptom not a cause of warming. The CO2 rise follows warming.
 
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Ice core data also shows that we are in normal patterns of temperature flucuations. In fact it shows there were periods of much greater warmth than was experienced by the recent solar maximium.

Ice core data also shows that CO2 is a symptom not a cause of warming. The CO2 rise follows warming.

CO2 lags temperature - what does it mean?

CO2 lags temperature - what does it mean?
The skeptic argument...Joe Barton to Al Gore: "An article from Science magazine explains a rise in CO2 concentrations actually lagged temperature by 200 to 1000 years. CO2 levels went up after the temperature rose. Temperature appears to drive CO2, not vice versa." (Source: Office of Congressman Joe Barton)

What the science says...
The CO2 record confirms both the amplifying effect of atmospheric CO2 and how sensitive climate is to change.


Does temperature rise cause CO2 rise or the other way around? A common misconception is that you can only have one or the other. In actuality, the answer is both.


Milankovitch cycles - how increased temperature causes CO2 rise

Looking over past climate change, scientists have observed a cycle of ice ages separated by brief warm periods called interglacials. This pattern is due to Milankovitch cycles - gradual, regular changes in the earth's orbit and axis. While there are several different cycles, the dominant climate signal is the 100,000 year eccentricity cycle as the Earth's orbit changes from a more circular to a more elliptical orbit (Petit 1999, Shackleton 2000).

The eccentricity cycle causes changes in insolation (incoming sunlight). When springtime insolation increases in the southern hemisphere, this coincides with rising temperatures in the south, retreating Antarctic sea ice and melting glaciers in the southern hemisphere (Shemesh 2002). As temperature rises, CO2 also rises but lags the warming by 800 to 1000 years (Monnin 2001, Caillon 2003, Stott 2007).
 

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