Analysts Predict Big Growth for U.S. Car Sales in 2012

[rdean]

http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20111226/RETAIL01/312269963/1203

Exhaust Notes

According to Automotive News, the predictions of 11 independent analysts from agencies such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Securities yielded an average outlook of 13.6 million units. That would mark a 6 to 7 percent increase from the projected 2011 numbers, which are figured to top 12.7 million units.

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"We expect a slow start" in 2012 once a flurry of Japanese catch-up buyers eases and because of the end of the accelerated-depreciation [business tax rule that has boosted truck sales] on Jan. 1," Jonas said. "Then the SAAR will improve to the 14 million level by May or June and exit the year in the high 14s."

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Now aren't you guys happy Obama saved the auto industry?

Just in time for elections.

 

[waltky]

Global economy likely to continue to limp along...

Leading Economists Offer Their Forecasts for 2012
December 30, 2011 - After a tough year in which the global economy faced one headwind after another, U.S. economists are weighing in on what is in store for 2012. When it comes to the U.S. budget, unemployment and the crisis in Europe - many believe 2012 will bring more of the same.

From the U.S. budget showdown to fears of a "double-dip" recession - 2011 was a year when the economy muddled from one crisis to the next. Economist Mark Vitner at Wells Fargo Bank said that in many ways, 2012 will probably look a lot like 2011. "The first half of the year, growth is likely to come in below expectations. We're likely to see fears of recession crop up, particularly if things in Europe get a little dicey [troubled], but by mid-year or certainly by late summer, the data should turn a little bit more positive," said Vitner.

By then, the campaign to choose the next U.S. president will be in full swing. Jobs are expected to be on people's minds. And with an economy projected to grow too slowly to reduce the unemployment rate of 8.6 percent, economist Beth Ann Bovino at Standard and Poor's said jobs are likely to remain scarce. "I'm expecting the unemployment rate to go up a little bit more, stay at 9 percent through the year, and then start to come down as the recovery gets a little bit more momentum," said Bovino.

Economist George Perry at the Brookings Institution takes a more optimistic view. "Unless the Europe situation blows up, or if I'm wrong on the China situation and China doesn't speed up, I think the U.S. unemployment rate will be lower at the end of the year than it is now," Perry.

Nigel Gault at IHS Global Insight said the bigger threat comes from economic stagnation in the 17 countries that use the euro. "The eurozone is the single biggest threat, not just from a eurozone recession. It's from the risk of recession combined with a eurozone financial crisis that develops into a major global financial crisis. In the worst case, it could be as bad as we saw in 2008, 2009," said Gault. Most economists say all bets are off if struggling nations such as Greece decide to abandon the euro. Adding to worries is the intense focus on sovereign debt, both in the U.S. and abroad. While necessary, many economists say in the short term, spending cuts and austerity measures can only weaken an already sluggish global recovery.

Source

 

[Mr. H.]

The U.S. economy, in many aspects, will behave independently of world economies during 2012.
This includes an uptick in the auto market.

We are in fact much better off than we realize. The problem is that guy in the Oval Offiice.

 

[bripat9643]

Now aren't you guys happy Obama saved the auto industry?

Just in time for elections.

Sorry, but they are too late for elections. If unemployment is above 8% by the election, Obama is toast.

 

[Dr.House]

http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20111226/RETAIL01/312269963/1203

Exhaust Notes

According to Automotive News, the predictions of 11 independent analysts from agencies such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo Securities yielded an average outlook of 13.6 million units. That would mark a 6 to 7 percent increase from the projected 2011 numbers, which are figured to top 12.7 million units.

----------------------------------------------------------

"We expect a slow start" in 2012 once a flurry of Japanese catch-up buyers eases and because of the end of the accelerated-depreciation [business tax rule that has boosted truck sales] on Jan. 1," Jonas said. "Then the SAAR will improve to the 14 million level by May or June and exit the year in the high 14s."

----------------------------------------------------------

Now aren't you guys happy Obama saved the auto industry?

Just in time for elections.

IOW, the evil 1%-ers who can afford a new car this year might be buying a new car this year?

We can only hope, right?

 

[whitehall]

Let's analyze the prediction before we high five the president. First of all lets admit that the "analysts" are nothing but cheer leaders for the auto industry. The "automotive news" is in the business of promoting the auto industry. Actually they predict a slow start in 2012 but they hope things will get better by May or June. Yeah right, we all hope so.