An Example of Gun Grabber Logic

[JimBowie1958]

Why do some people believe that 2.5 million crimes are prevented by guns? - College Confidential

Okay, let's just mull that over for a minute. 1.3% of all American adults prevented at least one crime - last year - by brandishing, shooting, or referring to a gun. Not only that, but it happens year in and year out. And it's not the same 1.3% every year - while there's some overlap, the study results actually suggest that for the most part it's a new group doin' it each and every year (222/4799 yields 4.6% over five years, or a new .9% of the population engaging in DGU's each year).

So, my having been an adult for about forty years, I should personally know a lot of people this has happened to. 40 X .9 = 36%! Of course the population has turned over during that time period with old people dying and new people achieving adulthood, so if it was done just once per lifetime by each defender it'd be closer to 18%. If we pump up the "repeat defender" rate by assuming that there are repeaters from one 5 year time span to another so we don't have to assume that 18% of all Americans engaged in DGU over that period of time we're still left with a substantial fraction of the population. I mean, during that time there's probably a hundred people I've known really well - well enough so that if they had prevented an actual crime (and used a gun to do so) I'm confident that I'd know about it. But I don't. I actually don't know a single one. I do know that people do prevent crimes, both with and without guns, and I've personally participated in crime prevention a couple of times. (I've lived in some fairly high-crime areas.) But actual "crime prevented by gun-totin' civilian"? Absolutely zero first hand experience, zero reliable second hand experience.

So even without digging into the details of the study, it's not really too hard for me to figure that it really is a remarkable claim, which is inconsistent with my actual real life experience. In short, my BS meter isn't just twitching - it's hit the peg. And frankly - that was before I ran the numbers above - I just did that as a reality check. They had me at "2.5 million times a year."

So why do people just accept a claim like this?

Wow.

Its like saying that Shinto is said to have millions of adherents, but I have never met someone who believes inShinto, nor have any of my friends, so there must be no logical basis for believing that there are millions of believers in Shinto!

Good God, this moron is appaently involved in higher education!