An Astonishing Argument for Why Violent Crime Rates Have Dropped

[Lakhota]

By George Monbiot

Less lead. It’s ridiculous -– until you see the evidence.

It seemed, at first, preposterous. The hypothesis was so exotic that I laughed. The rise and fall of violent crime during the second half of the 20th century and first years of the 21st were caused, it proposed, not by changes in policing or imprisonment, single parenthood, recession, crack cocaine or the legalisation of abortion, but mainly by … lead.

I don’t mean bullets. The crime waves that afflicted many parts of the world and then, against all predictions, collapsed, were ascribed, in an article published by Mother Jones last week, to the rise and fall in the use of lead-based paint and leaded petrol(1).

It’s ridiculous – until you see the evidence. Studies between cities, states and nations show that the rise and fall in crime follows, with a roughly 20-year lag, the rise and fall in the exposure of infants to trace quantities of lead(2,3,4). But all that gives us is correlation: an association that could be coincidental. The Mother Jones article, based on several scientific papers, claimed causation.

I began by reading the papers. Do they say what the article claims? They do. Then I looked up the citations: the discussion of those papers in the scientific literature. The three whose citations I checked have been mentioned, between them, 301 times(5). I went through all these papers (except the handful in foreign languages), as well as dozens of others. To my astonishment, I could find just one study attacking the thesis(6), and this was sponsored by the Ethyl Corporation, which happens to have been a major manufacturer of the petrol additive tetraethyl lead. I found many more supporting it. Crazy as this seems, it really does look as if lead poisoning could be the major cause of the rise and fall of violent crime.

More (w/References): An Astonishing Argument for Why Violent Crime Rates Have Dropped | Alternet

 

[Sallow]

There's some validity to that argument. Lead poisoning has an effect on the brain and cognition.

 

[Mr. H.]

Lead based paints haven't been around for 35 years. In this country anyway.

 

[OKTexas]

The high rates of abortions in minority communities are also argued as a reason, just fewer potential criminals born since Roe. Both arguments could have validity, maybe a combination?

 

[TheOldSchool]

The high rates of abortions in minority communities are also argued as a reason, just fewer potential criminals born since Roe. Both arguments could have validity, maybe a combination?

What point are you trying to make:

That you hate minorities?

Or that Republicans should start supporting abortion because it results in less members of minorities?

That's how I read your comment at least.

 

[Sallow]

The high rates of abortions in minority communities are also argued as a reason, just fewer potential criminals born since Roe. Both arguments could have validity, maybe a combination?

What point are you trying to make:

That you hate minorities?

Or that Republicans should start supporting abortion because it results in less members of minorities?

That's how I read your comment at least.

Yeah..there are so few minorities that they were barely able to tip the scales of the last election..

 

[dblack]

Lead based paints haven't been around for 35 years. In this country anyway.

Yep. That's the gist of it.


Sent from my GT-P7510 using Tapatalk 2

 

[bayoubill]

By George Monbiot

Less lead. It’s ridiculous -– until you see the evidence.

It seemed, at first, preposterous. The hypothesis was so exotic that I laughed. The rise and fall of violent crime during the second half of the 20th century and first years of the 21st were caused, it proposed, not by changes in policing or imprisonment, single parenthood, recession, crack cocaine or the legalisation of abortion, but mainly by … lead.

I don’t mean bullets. The crime waves that afflicted many parts of the world and then, against all predictions, collapsed, were ascribed, in an article published by Mother Jones last week, to the rise and fall in the use of lead-based paint and leaded petrol(1).

It’s ridiculous – until you see the evidence. Studies between cities, states and nations show that the rise and fall in crime follows, with a roughly 20-year lag, the rise and fall in the exposure of infants to trace quantities of lead(2,3,4). But all that gives us is correlation: an association that could be coincidental. The Mother Jones article, based on several scientific papers, claimed causation.

I began by reading the papers. Do they say what the article claims? They do. Then I looked up the citations: the discussion of those papers in the scientific literature. The three whose citations I checked have been mentioned, between them, 301 times(5). I went through all these papers (except the handful in foreign languages), as well as dozens of others. To my astonishment, I could find just one study attacking the thesis(6), and this was sponsored by the Ethyl Corporation, which happens to have been a major manufacturer of the petrol additive tetraethyl lead. I found many more supporting it. Crazy as this seems, it really does look as if lead poisoning could be the major cause of the rise and fall of violent crime.

More (w/References): An Astonishing Argument for Why Violent Crime Rates Have Dropped | Alternet

wow... talk about coincidence...

I was listening, less than half an hour ago, to a radio PSA about lead paint and it's effect on kids... it described kids who had emotional, behavioral and learning problems as a result of exposure to lead paint... and it made me wonder if mebbe it caused kids to be more violent and out of control...

and I was thinking of putting up a thread related to this subject...

 

[bayoubill]

Lead based paints haven't been around for 35 years. In this country anyway.

sure, lead-based paints haven't been sold for the last 35 years...

but there are millions of older homes and apartments that have lead-based paint that was applied long ago on surfaces throughout their interiors... on walls, doors, baseboards and window sills...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

AGW.

Has to be

Nothing else fits the facts

 

[bayoubill]

agw.

Has to be

nothing else fits the facts

agw...?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

agw.

Has to be

nothing else fits the facts

agw...?

AGW= manmade global warming

It's responsible for everything else

 

[Mr. H.]

agw.

Has to be

nothing else fits the facts

agw...?

AGW= manmade global warming

It's responsible for everything else

So why isn't the acronym MMGW?

 

[Missourian]

Bullets are made of lead.

Thread fail.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

agw...?

AGW= manmade global warming

It's responsible for everything else

So why isn't the acronym MMGW?

LOLz

Oh, because the Cultists prefer calling it "anthropogenic" it makes it sound more scientific

 

[Mr. H.]

AGW= manmade global warming

It's responsible for everything else

So why isn't the acronym MMGW?

LOLz

Oh, because the Cultists prefer calling it "anthropogenic" it makes it sound more scientific

Are you saying that I'm an invertebrate animal having an exoskeleton (external skeleton), a segmented body, and jointed appendages?

 

[dblack]

My son linked me to another article on this last week. Goes into a little bit more detail on the research:

America's Real Criminal Element: Lead | Mother Jones

Fascinating stuff.

 

[Mr. H.]

Bring home the Butternut Lead, Fred.

 

[bayoubill]

Bullets are made of lead.

Thread fail.

I really hate it when folks on my side of the political spectrum put up an asinine reply...

just makes it harder for me to engage others from the other side in reasonable discussion...

 

[bayoubill]

back after I got married to my first wife, we lived in an older house all the way up until we split up 12 years later...

the house was prolly at least a hunnert years old...

meantime we had a coupla kids...

the oldest one had a habit of eating the pealing paint offa the window sills...

he grew up okay... 'cept that he's a flamin' lib who buys into whatever the Dems are selling...