All you have to do is scan this forum

[ginscpy]

to see who win the 2012 presidential election.

 

[konradv]

to see who win the 2012 presidential election.

You been spamming the board again?

 

[ginscpy]

Romney/Ryan

 

[konradv]

Romney/Ryan

So, that's a yes.

 

[PLYMCO_PILGRIM]

to see who win the 2012 presidential election.

Oh don't fool yourself....we are NOT representative of the overall population of the USA...most Americans don't pay enough attention to politics to even think about posting on a forum like this

 

[blastoff]

Hell, half the folks eligible to vote won't take the time. That's something I just don't get.

 

[Liberal]

Wanna bet?



If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.

Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.

It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.

 

[ginscpy]

We are the people who vote.

 

[ginscpy]

Obama is toast

 

[U2Edge]

Wanna bet?



If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.

Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.

It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.

You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.

The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.

 

[Katzndogz]

If obama wins by a whisker it's still a win. He THINKS he will be able to twist republican arms to get what he wants but he is quite wrong about that. obama has personalized his administration. He thinks that republicans don't want to pass his proposals because they don't like him. It's that they don't like the policies he is proposing. He just can't imagine being wrong, ever.

Despite the fact that I stand to make a lot of money if obama wins, I would much rather that he lost and America won.

 

[g5000]

Like every critical thinker, I am going to believe the polls which say the guy I like is ahead. I am going to ignore the polls that say the other guy is ahead. And just to drown out those bad polls, I am going to start a lot of topics about the polls that have my guy ahead. If my guy is ahead on a poll of voters who voted before 10 a.m. on an odd-numbered Saturday, I am going to take this as a sure sign my guy is going to win the national election.

If my guy loses, I am going to cite the polls I liked as evidence the election was stolen.

That's how I roll.

.

 

[Freemason9]

Wanna bet?



If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.

Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.

It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.

You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.

The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.

No, Romney does not have a "slight lead there." I suggest you read the article. You also say "The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest." First of all, Nate "creates" nothing. He uses statistical analysis to interpret responses a wide selection of polls, accounting for various techniques, weights, and variances. Secondly--what in the world do you base YOUR expert analysis on? Sean Hannity's Republican Butt Trek Radio show? LOL

 

[occupied]

It would be like scanning the Romney website or Democratic underground for an accurate picture of the electorate. Conservative posts outnumber liberal posts at least two to one here.

 

[ginscpy]

President Romney

 

[mamooth]

I will keep posting current status of these 10 poll aggregaters, to give people an idea of what the people who look and summarize _all_ the polls are saying. Right now, they're all saying Obama is winning. It is a rational position to say you think Romney can gain ground and pull out a victory. It is not rational to declare that Romney is currently way ahead and headed for a blowout win.

10/31/2012


RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
http://election.princeton.edu/

Election Analytics O291.6-R246.4
Presidential Election 2012 | University of Illinois

InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election

 

[OKTexas]

If obama wins by a whisker it's still a win. He THINKS he will be able to twist republican arms to get what he wants but he is quite wrong about that. obama has personalized his administration. He thinks that republicans don't want to pass his proposals because they don't like him. It's that they don't like the policies he is proposing. He just can't imagine being wrong, ever.

Despite the fact that I stand to make a lot of money if obama wins, I would much rather that he lost and America won.

If Maobama wins by a whisker, he will lose both houses of congress and will be a lame duck from day one. If there was a choice between Romeny and the senate, I'll take the senate, of course if Romney wins the republicans will take both houses of congress also.

 

[Politico]

Really? All I see is a bunch of whiny bitches who can't hold a civil conversation.

 

[U2Edge]

Wanna bet?



If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.

Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.

It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.

You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.

The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.

No, Romney does not have a "slight lead there." I suggest you read the article. You also say "The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest." First of all, Nate "creates" nothing. He uses statistical analysis to interpret responses a wide selection of polls, accounting for various techniques, weights, and variances. Secondly--what in the world do you base YOUR expert analysis on? Sean Hannity's Republican Butt Trek Radio show? LOL

REAL CLEAR POLITICS shows that he has a slight lead. Many other individual polls show that he has a slight lead.

Nate created the formula he is using and decided what inputs or information to put into that formula to come up with the probabilities. Thats why you don't see ANYONE else with exactly Nates results. None of that says he is wrong, we won't know that until the election. As for the probability that each candidate had of winning, regardless of who actually wins, that can be forever debated.

Secondly--what in the world do you base YOUR expert analysis on? Sean Hannity's Republican Butt Trek Radio show? LOL

Thats very 5th grade of you.

 

[U2Edge]

I will keep posting current status of these 10 poll aggregaters, to give people an idea of what the people who look and summarize _all_ the polls are saying. Right now, they're all saying Obama is winning. It is a rational position to say you think Romney can gain ground and pull out a victory. It is not rational to declare that Romney is currently way ahead and headed for a blowout win.

10/31/2012


RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

Pollster.com O253-R206
Pollster: Pictures, Videos, Breaking News

Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
http://election.princeton.edu/

Election Analytics O291.6-R246.4
Presidential Election 2012 | University of Illinois

InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012

BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair

Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote

270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast

Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election

Those are all electoral college predictions. You can't dismiss what the average of NATIONAL polls are saying about the popular vote or the fact that the popular vote winner almost always wins the electoral college historically.