Discussion in 'Politics' started by ginscpy, Oct 31, 2012.
to see who win the 2012 presidential election.
You been spamming the board again?
So, that's a yes.
Oh don't fool yourself....we are NOT representative of the overall population of the USA...most Americans don't pay enough attention to politics to even think about posting on a forum like this
Hell, half the folks eligible to vote won't take the time. That's something I just don't get.
If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.
Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.
It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.
We are the people who vote.
Obama is toast
You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.
The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.
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