Disir
Platinum Member
- Sep 30, 2011
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Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed (Farmajo) has employed a classic carrot-and-stick approach to al-Shabaab since taking office in February. In early April, Farmajo announced a 60-day amnesty for al-Shabaab militants, while also offering to open discussions with the movement's leadership.
At the same time, he noted that Somalia was in a state of war, and promised to eradicate within two years those who didn't take advantage of his offer to surrender. With the presumed expiration of that amnesty, it is clear which path most of al-Shabaab has chosen, but what is less clear is the Somali government's ability to respond.
The provision of an amnesty was not a novel concept, as it followed on similar offers by previous Somali governments. With the election of the popular, less clan-inclined, and seemingly incorruptible Farmajo, however, there was some speculation that there may be a genuine opportunity for engagement with al-Shabaab. At an official level this was quickly squashed by top al-Shabaab leaders.
Nonetheless, the amnesty and dialogue offer has not been without merit. Security officials estimate roughly 50 al-Shabaab members - a few of whom are high-level individuals - have surrendered since Farmajo's announcement. Furthermore, the United States recently removed a $5 million reward on founding al-Shabaab member Mukhtar Robow (Abu Mansoor), probably to help cement discussions between him and the government.
Africa: Al-Shabaab Holds Its Ground Against Somalia's Amnesty Deal
This is not something that can move forward with "negotiations" unless that will simply be used as justification for annihilation of the remaining members.
At the same time, he noted that Somalia was in a state of war, and promised to eradicate within two years those who didn't take advantage of his offer to surrender. With the presumed expiration of that amnesty, it is clear which path most of al-Shabaab has chosen, but what is less clear is the Somali government's ability to respond.
The provision of an amnesty was not a novel concept, as it followed on similar offers by previous Somali governments. With the election of the popular, less clan-inclined, and seemingly incorruptible Farmajo, however, there was some speculation that there may be a genuine opportunity for engagement with al-Shabaab. At an official level this was quickly squashed by top al-Shabaab leaders.
Nonetheless, the amnesty and dialogue offer has not been without merit. Security officials estimate roughly 50 al-Shabaab members - a few of whom are high-level individuals - have surrendered since Farmajo's announcement. Furthermore, the United States recently removed a $5 million reward on founding al-Shabaab member Mukhtar Robow (Abu Mansoor), probably to help cement discussions between him and the government.
Africa: Al-Shabaab Holds Its Ground Against Somalia's Amnesty Deal
This is not something that can move forward with "negotiations" unless that will simply be used as justification for annihilation of the remaining members.