AGW: atmospheric physics

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Star, Feb 19, 2013.

  1. Star
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    Star Silver Member

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    Climate Change And Blizzards May Be Connected, Global Warming Studies Demonstrate


    SETH BORENSTEIN
    02/18/2013



    WASHINGTON (AP) — With scant snowfall and barren ski slopes in parts of the Midwest and Northeast the past couple of years, some scientists have pointed to global warming as the culprit.

    Then when a whopper of a blizzard smacked the Northeast with more than 2 feet of snow in some places earlier this month, some of the same people again blamed global warming.

    How can that be? It's been a joke among skeptics, pointing to what seems to be a brazen contradiction.
    But the answer lies in atmospheric physics. A warmer atmosphere can hold, and dump, more moisture, snow experts say. And two soon-to-be-published studies demonstrate how there can be more giant blizzards yet less snow overall each year. Projections are that that's likely to continue with man-made global warming.

    Consider:
    <More Here>
    .
     
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  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Gold Member

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    Or to simply the predictions, wider and wilder swings in the weather with an overall warming trend.
     
  3. polarbear
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    polarbear I eat morons

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    Good morning to You from Manitoba.
    I got to know You a little better since we buried the axe and in this spirit I`ll give You a little brain teaser today.
    Yesterday, just outside my kitchen window it was -33. This morning it`s "only" -18 where I live. Only 22 km east from where I am it`s 5 degrees "warmer".


    ( not much, only slightly off topic remark..So how much sense would it make to average that?)




    If there were no difference in temperature over distance there would be no "wild swings" or severe weather events.
    Do You agree with that so far ?

    Any severe storm regardless if it`s a winter blizzard, a summer hail storm, a tornado or a hurricane is triggered by rapid cooling of warm & moist air...not by rapid heating.
    Do You agree with this statement ?

    If You agreed to both then You are in a bit of a bind, because CO2 at the present level is said to slow the rate of cooling.

    It`s alright with me if You quote a pro AGW web site, as long as the explanation is included how something that slows the rate of cooling can at the same time enhance the rate of cooling to a degree that triggers a severe weather event.

    Don`t worry, I`m not trying to lure You into a "You said" trap for later use...I`m just sincerely interested what Your thoughts are regarding this paradox.
     
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  4. Toronado3800
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    Toronado3800 VIP Member

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    Ug.

    This is a tough one for alarmists in the global.warming camp. They yell too much about any one storm.

    Please understand though if global warming affects the flow of the gulf stream England may well get colder!

    I would think a warmer.atmosphere would be faster moving so maybe another mph or two on winds.

    This is not a big part of my belief in the greenhouse effect though.
     
  5. polarbear
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    polarbear I eat morons

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    Are You responding to my paradox? I`m only trying to make the AGW subject a bit less confrontational and welcome all comments

    Pretty good answer !
    I especially liked the gulf stream reminder, because many are not aware that the gulf stream transports more heat energy from south to north than the heat energy that the air transfers.
    It starts out at 30 Sverdrup and increases to 150 Sv north of 55 deg Lat.
    That`s 39 600 000 000 gallons per second of warm water heading north & to Europe.

    I`m an engineer not a "climatologist". As such I see an analogy between the paradox about a decreased rate of cooling, a prerequisite to wild temperature swings and severe weather events..... and how a Stirling engine works. It`s exactly the same factors that make a Sterling engine "tick" that You need for severe storms.
    [​IMG]

    It would seize to function if the rate of cooling would be less than the rate of heating...or if it the cold side were as warm as the heated side.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  6. IlarMeilyr
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    IlarMeilyr Liability Reincarnate! Supporting Member

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    If the wilder and wilder swings were to lead to another mini ice age, would it be politically alright to seek warmth?
     
  7. polarbear
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    polarbear I eat morons

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    Besides the massive Gulf stream current, the other thing that casual weather observes don`t consider are the mechanics at play at severe storms, such as hurricanes and tornadoes.
    Both are less intense the farther north the event occurs and more violent the farther south.
    That`s not so much due to warmer temperature farther south, but rather due to the latitude specific Coriolis effect which causes the high circular wind speeds in tornadoes and hurricanes.
    [​IMG]

    Too bad, I was in a hurry and could not find a better Coriolis gif demo.
    So just use Your imagination and reverse the direction how that ball moves. In a storm system that ball,...the air moves towards the center and rotates faster just like a figure skater increases "rpm" by drawing in his previously extended arms.


    It`s better to demonstrate this effect in numerical form for a hurricane, like "Sandy" and compare "Sandy" to "Katrina", because hurricanes spread out over a larger area.
    The Coriolis effect alone will account that "Katrina" which made landfall in New Orleans had higher wind speeds than "Sandy" @ New York.

    At the equator the rotational speed is (40 000 000 * cos(0))/( 24*60*60)= 623 m/sec
    At Lat 10 N the rotational speed is already down to 456 m/ sec
    When an air mass moves from the equator 10 degrees North it retains the 623 m/sec momentum and is over a ground that has a 456 m/sec speed vector in that direction. That`s a speed difference of 167 meters per second. Friction is a good thing, because if there was none that`s the kind of wind speeds that would be achieved if there were no friction when an air mass travels from the equator 10 degrees north (=600 nautical miles).

    If an air mass travels from 40 deg N to 50 deg N then the speed momentum vector difference is 57 meters per second...almost 3 times slower than from 0 deg to 10 deg N

    It is the Coriolis vector quantity that contributes a large part of the mechanical energy in a severe storm system.
    The rate of cooling, the more rapid the more violent will be the mechanical energy component the storm has drawn from the thermal energy and it adds up either to a hurricane category 1-2, 70 to 120 mph wind speeds (Katrina), or a tropical storm (Sandy)...40 to ~ 75 miles per hour.
     
    Last edited: Feb 21, 2013
  8. Saigon
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    Saigon Gold Member

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    Absolutely - the more humid it is, the more we get here in Finland. You don't hear people question climate change here.

    There was another thread on snow in Russia a couple of weeks back where some of the science behind this was explained. The funny thing was, the thread was started by a Denier!!

    btw - I'd like to warn posters about the Polar Bear - who started posting IP addresses last week after he got particularly humiliated on one thread. The posts were removed by the mods, but I suggest putting the guy on ignore if you value your privacy.
     
  9. TNHarley
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    Blizzards have only happened in the last couple hundred years?
     
  10. Saigon
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    Nope.

    But areas such as the one I live in get more snow and bigger blizzards as the climate becomes warmer and more humid.
     

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