Affordable Care Act Supreme Court Prediction Thread

Discussion in 'Law and Justice System' started by Polk, Mar 21, 2012.

  1. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    Get your guesses in here before oral arguments start next week.

    1. Will the Anti-Injunction Act (which prevents claims on a tax before it has levied) be used to kill the case for lack of jurisdiction?
    2. Is the individual mandate constitutional?
    3. Can the individual mandate be severed from the rest of the bill?
    4. Is the Medicaid expansion constitutional?

    Who ends up writing the majority opinion? Who writes a concurrence? A dissent?

    Remember, this thread is about projecting what you think the court will do, not what you want the court to do.
     
  2. FA_Q2
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    FA_Q2 Gold Member

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    Honestly, I don't know. The court leans conservative and on that note, taking down the bill is likely but because the mandate is so integral with the rest of the bill and there are parts in there that are necessary/extremely popular I am not sure the court is actually willing to strike the law down. There are too many questions, not enough answers.
     
  3. Polk
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    Polk Classic

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    My predictions:

    The court will not throw the case out on Anti-Injunction Act grounds.
    The court will uphold the mandate.
    Even if they fail to uphold the mandate, it will be severed from the rest of the bill.
    The Medicaid expansion will be ruled constitutional. That will be the least contraversial part of the case (only Thomas will dissent on that part).

    I think the ruling will be 6-3 (liberal wing, plus Kennedy and Roberts).
     
  4. Publius1787
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    Publius1787 Gold Member

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    It will be 5-4 and struck down on the individual mandate. However, as you stated, the individual mandate will perhaps be severed from the law itself leaving a huge boondoggle of a law inoperable. I have steered clear of the Anti-Injunction Act because the brief on OYEZ is beyond my comprehension. I beleive the liberal prediction on Roberts is misplaced and desperate. The fact that the Obama Admin is changing their arguement to suit previous opinions by Roberts will not sway the opinion of the court. Of course, the courts are also the most important issue of the 2012 election. http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/214534-the-most-important-issue-of-the-2012-election.html Well, I tossed my chips in. No doubt you created this thread for more specificity and a better debate. However, if that’s what you want I shall allow you to kick it off.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2012
  5. Meister
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    Meister VIP Member Supporting Member

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    If the court upholds the bill, it will be giving sweeping new powers to our federal government. I certainly don't like that idea....at all.
     
  6. Publius1787
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    Publius1787 Gold Member

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    Well, the government forced hospitals to take care of those who cannot afford it which created a market failure. To fix their market failure, they now want to force people to buy insurance which will lead to another market failure among insurers and employers who will always take the cheaper route and dump their employees on the government option. This will create anohter market failure as the cost predictions will be far higher than the government predicted and beyond the governments ability to pay for it. That will lead the government in to regulating every aspect of life to keep costs low and healthcare rationing. So yes, if the government has the right to force you to buy something there is no limit toward how they can regulate your life.
     
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  7. Polk
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    I welcome more of your input. That's a very thoughtful post. I can see what you mean about Roberts, but I also see an off chance Scalia could rule to uphold the mandate (at least, that conclusion would flow logically from his concurrence in Gonzales v Raich).
     
  8. Polk
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    I see two problems with this argument.

    1. There is no "government option", only an individual market for insurance. Indeed, it would be a challenge to argue the individual mandate is unconstitutional if there were a public option, as it would be mimicking the general structure of Medicare.
    2. I've never understood the argument that the availability of exchange subsidies will result in employers dropping coverage because it would be cheaper to do so. If that were the case, why not just drop coverage entirely in the pre-ACA world, where it would be costless to do so?

    As an aside, unless health care is going to take up the majority of output (or even otherwise, as the number of doctors is not limitless), some sort of rationing will occur. Even a completely open market with no Medicare and Medicaid would involve rationing.
     
  9. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    a poll would have been nice;)
     
  10. Polk
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    I didn't want to create a separate thread for every question.
     

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