About That Crumbling 2008 Coalition of Support for Obama

Discussion in 'Politics' started by bripat9643, Sep 28, 2012.

  1. bripat9643
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    bripat9643 Diamond Member

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    About That Crumbling 2008 Coalition of Support for Obama « Battleground Watch

    One of the key tenets to the argument that polls surveying Democrat turnout higher than the 2008 levels is every poll shows some combination of either reduced enthusiasm or reduced support for Obama versus his 2008 performance on election day. This poll from the American Jewish Committee (hat-tip commenter perdogg) shows Obama with a substantial lead among Jewish voters 65 to 24. Great for the President, right? Unfortunately, that 41-point margin is substantially less than the 57-point margin (78 to 21) Obama had in 2008.

    This type of drop among Obama’s 2008 coalition is not limited to Jewish voters. I haven’t focused as much on national polls, but other groups like the youth vote are also leaving the President’s side. In the CBS/New York Times national poll from Sep 14, Obama was leading among 18-29 year-olds 53 to 45, only an 8-point margin. His margin in 2008 was 34-point (66 to 32). As we have point out numerous times, in 2008 Obama did not meaningfully increase the youth turnout. He did, however, meaningfully persuade them to vote for him. Now their enthusiasm is dampened and their preferences have changed.

    Dynamics like the ones above will make it nearly impossible for Obama to repeat, let alone exceed, his 2008 turnout advantage in the 2012 election. These are among the many reasons we find the polls over-sampling Democrats by wide margins to be unrealistic surveys and not accurate reflections of voter preferences today.

    A new American Jewish Committee poll found 65 percent of Jews nationwide planning to vote for US President Barack Obama versus 24 percent for Mitt Romney, with another 10 percent undecided. The poll, conducted Sept. 6-17 among 1,040 Jewish voters nationwide, found Obama doing better than Romney among Jews of all religious backgrounds with the exception of Orthodox Jews, who favored the Republican nominee. Taking into account the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, the poll’s overall finding regarding the state of the Jewish vote is similar to other recent polling from Gallup and elsewhere.
     
  2. DauggyDaddy
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    DauggyDaddy Rookie

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    It's really funny how the right keep telling is Obama's losing when the polls all say otherwise.
     
  3. bripat9643
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    bripat9643 Diamond Member

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    The polls are all rigged. That's the point of the article, moron.
     
  4. del
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    del BANNED

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    herp derp polls are all rigged herrp derrp

    :lmao:
     
  5. Dutch
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    Dutch Silver Member

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    It reminds me of a four year old with his hands over his ears throwing a tantrum yelling "I can't hear you!".
     
  6. Plasmaball
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    Plasmaball Gold Member

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    yes, that has been the talking point for the past week or so from you guys.
     
  7. bitterlyclingin
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    bitterlyclingin Silver Member

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    Rest assured they'll be out there for sure. Hell, if they don't show up to vote for the Chicago Jesus they'll lose their free cell phones.
    Obama, in 1998 at Loyola University: Those Americans receiving welfare and other forms of largesse, along with the working poor, constitute a critical mass that if manipulated properly, could enable a Communist to gain power in this country and maintain him there for a considerable time. Its not altruism with Barry, nor is it compassion, its all about gaining POWER.
    The NYT, in a recent article highlighted by powerlineblog, even fessed up to everyone's suspiscions, that Barry is a megalomaniac that can admit no wrong, can tolerate no criticism, ridicule or derision. One thing megalomaniacs also do is refuse to give up power when they've had their hands on the controls. No further proof of the saying "Power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely!" than the Chicago Jesus' behavior after the Libyan Ambassador was sodomized to death with a steel pole in a terrorist assault on an American embassy on the 9/11 anniversary.
    Heck, I betcha that Barry would even refuse to leave after impeachment, or after this election is decided against him.
    Most staunch Commies, historically, have only left office in a toes first manner.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2012

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